(11-09-2017 08:20 PM)asuwon Wrote:  I'll be honest.

I told my son that South Alabama was the remaining game I feared the most.

If we can beat South Alabama convincingly, I think we win out and nobody plays us to single digits.

I like the way you think.

(11-09-2017 05:58 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  Isn't their a chance the Troy/Arkansas State game gets scheduled to be on national TV? If I'm not mistaken, ESPN gets to choose a "wildcard" game during that last week as part of the Sun Belt TV package. You'd have to think they pick up the game, right?

ESPN has a 2 week coverage window. They don't have to announce a television network or even a kickoff time until Nov 20th.

AState has listed the game as a 2pm start, but I'd say the chances of the game kicking off at that time are less than 5 percent.

(11-09-2017 11:02 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 08:20 PM)asuwon Wrote:  I'll be honest.

I told my son that South Alabama was the remaining game I feared the most.

If we can beat South Alabama convincingly, I think we win out and nobody plays us to single digits.

I like the way you think.

South's defense will be the best defense we have seen this year. But with Johnson out, and a lot of unknowns on the offensive line, I am not sure they have the offense to win it.

(11-09-2017 11:02 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 08:20 PM)asuwon Wrote:  I'll be honest.

I told my son that South Alabama was the remaining game I feared the most.

If we can beat South Alabama convincingly, I think we win out and nobody plays us to single digits.

I like the way you think.

No you don't.

(11-09-2017 11:07 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 11:02 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 08:20 PM)asuwon Wrote:  I'll be honest.

I told my son that South Alabama was the remaining game I feared the most.

If we can beat South Alabama convincingly, I think we win out and nobody plays us to single digits.

I like the way you think.

South's defense will be the best defense we have seen this year. But with Johnson out, and a lot of unknowns on the offensive line, I am not sure they have the offense to win it.

They certainly have some talent. More than Troy or AppSt.

Wonder what their problem is? Just know it is not talent.

(11-10-2017 08:31 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 11:07 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 11:02 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 08:20 PM)asuwon Wrote:  I'll be honest.

I told my son that South Alabama was the remaining game I feared the most.

If we can beat South Alabama convincingly, I think we win out and nobody plays us to single digits.

I like the way you think.

South's defense will be the best defense we have seen this year. But with Johnson out, and a lot of unknowns on the offensive line, I am not sure they have the offense to win it.

They certainly have some talent. More than Troy or AppSt.

Wonder what their problem is? Just know it is not talent.

Isn't this where you usually put in the "bad coaching" comment?

(11-10-2017 09:43 AM)sdcritter Wrote:  

(11-10-2017 08:31 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 11:07 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 11:02 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 08:20 PM)asuwon Wrote:  I'll be honest.

I told my son that South Alabama was the remaining game I feared the most.

If we can beat South Alabama convincingly, I think we win out and nobody plays us to single digits.

I like the way you think.

South's defense will be the best defense we have seen this year. But with Johnson out, and a lot of unknowns on the offensive line, I am not sure they have the offense to win it.

They certainly have some talent. More than Troy or AppSt.

Wonder what their problem is? Just know it is not talent.

Isn't this where you usually put in the "bad coaching" comment?

Unlike A-State the first three years under Anderson, don't know if it is coaching in this situation.

Lots of injuries? What?

Lot easier to fix a coaching problem than a talent problem, and A-State is happy about that, and I'm going to give Blake Anderson credit for fixing it.

(11-09-2017 08:20 PM)asuwon Wrote:  I'll be honest.

I told my son that South Alabama was the remaining game I feared the most.

If we can beat South Alabama convincingly, I think we win out and nobody plays us to single digits.

I think you are probably right.

Their record is not impressive, but looking at their talent this is the toughest opponent remaining on A-States schedule. Just looking at talent,you can see why they beat Troy and ULM.

(11-10-2017 11:40 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 08:20 PM)asuwon Wrote:  I'll be honest.

I told my son that South Alabama was the remaining game I feared the most.

If we can beat South Alabama convincingly, I think we win out and nobody plays us to single digits.

I think you are probably right.

Their record is not impressive, but looking at their talent this is the toughest opponent remaining on A-States schedule. Just looking at talent,you can see why they beat Troy and ULM.

So, exactly when was the last time you received "talent" data regarding the Sun Belt?

Sent from my HTCD100LVWPP using Tapatalk

(11-10-2017 11:57 AM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  

(11-10-2017 11:40 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(11-09-2017 08:20 PM)asuwon Wrote:  I'll be honest.

I told my son that South Alabama was the remaining game I feared the most.

If we can beat South Alabama convincingly, I think we win out and nobody plays us to single digits.

I think you are probably right.

Their record is not impressive, but looking at their talent this is the toughest opponent remaining on A-States schedule. Just looking at talent,you can see why they beat Troy and ULM.

So, exactly when was the last time you received "talent" data regarding the Sun Belt?

Sent from my HTCD100LVWPP using Tapatalk

Last year, for the players on each SBC teams roster, plus the predicted record's for each team.

This year I've been filling in the blanks with 247 data on new recruits.

Pretty close to the 247 Team Talent Rankings and my plan is just to use the team talent rankings as soon as they get all the player ratings in.

Then I get the last game notes and plug in each players rankings for the depth charts of the teams playing. That gives me a feel for how the talent compares.

As I said I don't have access to the season predictions, but have high confidence they would have predicted 8 wins +/- 1 for A-State, with at least one SBC loss, so that is my prediction. Just not sure Anderson calling plays did not screw up everything.

I did compare actual results under Anderson, to the predictions, and that is why I've been saying AState would be beaten by a SBC team not named Troy.

USA looks like a strong candidate to be that team, based on the type of teams that beat A-State( teams better than their record), the talent ratings of the players on their roster( better than any SBC team not named A-State).

The big advantage for A-State is they have high rated talent at every position, and far and away the highest rated depth--not even close here, and every other team has talent gaps, they don't. They have talent, and depth at every position. That is almost certainly why A-State closes out games so strong.

Did want to mention that a lot of players have NA in their ratings on the 247 College Talent Ratings (many of A-States best talent in fact), but you can google that players name with 247, and get the 247 ratings for that player.

Example: their starting OT, Lanard Bonner has a NA on the College Team Talent

https://247sports.com/Team/Arkansas-State-188/Roster

Google Lanard Bonner 247 and I found a link to his 247 page, and it had his .8000 rating.

https://247sports.com/player/lanard-bonner-81160

Had to do that for a lot of players on eash team.

SunBelt Team Talent Rankings
Based on 247 class rankings for the last 3 years using a reverse point system 11 points for 1st to 1 point for 11th.
Trending pattern based on year to year comparisons.

1. GASO (Trending Down) 28 pts
2. TXST (Trending Up) 23 pts
3. USA (Trending Down) 23 pts
4. TROY (Trending Up) 22 pts
5. stAte (Trending Down) 22 pts
6. UL (Trending Down) 21 pts
7. ULM (Trending Up) 18 pts
8. APST (Trending Flat) 17 pts
9. GAST (Trending Up) 12 pts
10. IDAHO (Trending Down) 8 pts
11. NMSU (Trending Flat) 4 pts

Based on this you're right about APST but incorrect about TROY. It also appears based on this quick observation that stAte is not as talented as you claim and GASO is the best team strictly based on 247 talent rankings.

(11-10-2017 02:15 PM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  Did want to mention that a lot of players have NA in their ratings on the 247 College Talent Ratings (many of A-States best talent in fact), but you can google that players name with 247, and get the 247 ratings for that player.

Example: their starting OT, Lanard Bonner has a NA on the College Team Talent

https://247sports.com/Team/Arkansas-State-188/Roster

Google Lanard Bonner 247 and I found a link to his 247 page, and it had his .8000 rating.

https://247sports.com/player/lanard-bonner-81160

Had to do that for a lot of players on eash team.

I'll concede the NA players to your advantage as I'm sure we all have players that fit into a category similar like Blace Brown and Hunter Reese both former walk-ons and both reforming at high levels for TROY.

As long as the predictions can be tested I'm good.

Little FYI, most posters here don't really like being reminded about their predictions.

The Team Talent Ratings Composite on 247 should not be used for a myriad of reasons. Most of the rosters outside of the P5 are woefully incomplete, so there's no real way you judge a team's current talent. It's hit or miss, really.

Also, the average star rating difference between Coastal Carolina, who only has 10 players listed, and Alabama is a full 12 points. The difference between Troy and South Alabama is half a point - No real measurable difference. Troy has had almost no injuries this year, where South Alabama is missing some key players. If the 247 ratings were even close to accurate, it would suggest that at the current moment, Troy is more talented than South Alabama simply because we haven't lost anyone relevant. I do think Arkansas State is a much more complete team than Troy right now. I'm not arguing that, just the silliness of using a system that's statistically irrelevant.

https://247sports.com/Season/2017-Footba...tComposite

(11-10-2017 02:20 PM)KSDTROJAN99 Wrote:  

(11-10-2017 02:15 PM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  Did want to mention that a lot of players have NA in their ratings on the 247 College Talent Ratings (many of A-States best talent in fact), but you can google that players name with 247, and get the 247 ratings for that player.

Example: their starting OT, Lanard Bonner has a NA on the College Team Talent

https://247sports.com/Team/Arkansas-State-188/Roster

Google Lanard Bonner 247 and I found a link to his 247 page, and it had his .8000 rating.

https://247sports.com/player/lanard-bonner-81160

Had to do that for a lot of players on eash team.

I'll concede the NA players to your advantage as I'm sure we all have players that fit into a category similar like Blace Brown and Hunter Reese both former walk-ons and both reforming at high levels for TROY.

No I did it for all the players on each teams depth chart for the game. They have yet to include a lot of good players in the College Team Talent list.

You can also go look at the class ratings for each team, and fill in the blanks.

Again you guys do it anyway you want, I am certainly not going to argue with fans on their methodology.

I can almost promise you A-State will be favored to beat every SBC team, probably through next year, and will not lose many

After next year I'm not sure I will be able to compile the data I need to predict anything, so I will probably quit predicting.

(11-10-2017 02:32 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  The Team Talent Ratings Composite on 247 should not be used for a myriad of reasons. Most of the rosters outside of the P5 are woefully incomplete, so there's no real way you judge a team's current talent. It's hit or miss, really.

Also, the average star rating difference between Coastal Carolina, who only has 10 players listed, and Alabama is a full 12 points. The difference between Troy and South Alabama is half a point - No real measurable difference. Troy has had almost no injuries this year, where South Alabama is missing some key players. If the 247 ratings were even close to accurate, it would suggest that at the current moment, Troy is more talented than South Alabama simply because we haven't lost anyone relevant. I do think Arkansas State is a much more complete team than Troy right now. I'm not arguing that, just the silliness of using a system that's statistically irrelevant.

https://247sports.com/Season/2017-Footba...tComposite

You may be right, I'm a little disappoint in the gaps, but it is sillier not to use any data, plus I still have good professional ratings on most players on most teams. I'm going to try and use 247, but I'm not optimistic I will be able to.

I'm probably going to be put out of the predicting business, pretty soon. I'll just have to trust you guys.

(11-10-2017 11:57 AM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  So, exactly when was the last time you received "talent" data regarding the Sun Belt?

Troy received some Sun Belt talent data on November 17, 2016.

You may want to clear your schedule.

They are due for a refresher course on December 2 of this year.

(11-10-2017 02:18 PM)KSDTROJAN99 Wrote:  SunBelt Team Talent Rankings
Based on 247 class rankings for the last 3 years using a reverse point system 11 points for 1st to 1 point for 11th.
Trending pattern based on year to year comparisons.

1. GASO (Trending Down) 28 pts
2. TXST (Trending Up) 23 pts
3. USA (Trending Down) 23 pts
4. TROY (Trending Up) 22 pts
5. stAte (Trending Down) 22 pts
6. UL (Trending Down) 21 pts
7. ULM (Trending Up) 18 pts
8. APST (Trending Flat) 17 pts
9. GAST (Trending Up) 12 pts
10. IDAHO (Trending Down) 8 pts
11. NMSU (Trending Flat) 4 pts

Based on this you're right about APST but incorrect about TROY. It also appears based on this quick observation that stAte is not as talented as you claim and GASO is the best team strictly based on 247 talent rankings.

Well you have the advantage.

Fill in those ratings for the SBC teams 247 would appreciate it. I just contacted 247 and they told me they have deleted some of the player ratings an trying to get it right is a struggle. When I filled in the data for the players on your game notes depth chart, vs A-State's you did not match up there, but did not do the whole roster.

Per John Garcia Jr about the missing data, "I have absolutely no idea, honestly. We have been fighting database merger battles everyday. Many profiles were wiped out all together so it's been a work in progress at best."

https://247sports.com/Season/2017-Footba...erence=SBC

(11-10-2017 05:36 PM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(11-10-2017 02:18 PM)KSDTROJAN99 Wrote:  SunBelt Team Talent Rankings
Based on 247 class rankings for the last 3 years using a reverse point system 11 points for 1st to 1 point for 11th.
Trending pattern based on year to year comparisons.

1. GASO (Trending Down) 28 pts
2. TXST (Trending Up) 23 pts
3. USA (Trending Down) 23 pts
4. TROY (Trending Up) 22 pts
5. stAte (Trending Down) 22 pts
6. UL (Trending Down) 21 pts
7. ULM (Trending Up) 18 pts
8. APST (Trending Flat) 17 pts
9. GAST (Trending Up) 12 pts
10. IDAHO (Trending Down) 8 pts
11. NMSU (Trending Flat) 4 pts

Based on this you're right about APST but incorrect about TROY. It also appears based on this quick observation that stAte is not as talented as you claim and GASO is the best team strictly based on 247 talent rankings.

Well you have the advantage.

Fill in those ratings for the SBC teams 247 would appreciate it. I just contacted 247 and they told me they have deleted some of the player ratings an trying to get it right is a struggle. When I filled in the data for the players on your game notes depth chart, vs A-State's you did not match up there, but did not do the whole roster.

Per John Garcia Jr about the missing data, "I have absolutely no idea, honestly. We have been fighting database merger battles everyday. Many profiles were wiped out all together so it's been a work in progress at best."

https://247sports.com/Season/2017-Footba...erence=SBC

As you have stated, therein lies the problem. So many times I've watched a player rating drop because the player decides to play for a G5 team and his 4* status drops to 3* or 3* drops to 2*. All rating systems are biased to the P5 which is proven each year by talent the NFL takes from G5 and FCS.