1) Ark State
2) Troy
3) App (good thing they don't play stAte or Troy with the way they have been playing lately, I'm not so sure they win the rest of their conference schedule)

It's a mess from here on out...
4) Georgia State
5) ULL
6) USA
7) ULM
8) NMSU
9) Idaho
10) Texas state
11) CCU
12) GS (they will get a win somewhere)

(10-29-2017 10:12 AM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  1) Ark State
2) Troy
3) App (good thing they don't play stAte or Troy with the way they have been playing lately, I'm not so sure they win the rest of their conference schedule)

It's a mess from here on out...
4) Georgia State
5) ULL
6) USA
7) ULM
8) NMSU
9) Idaho
10) Texas state
11) CCU
12) GS (they will get a win somewhere)

NMSU should be above ULL. Idaho beat ULM comfortably.

(10-29-2017 10:12 AM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  1) Ark State
2) Troy
3) App (good thing they don't play stAte or Troy with the way they have been playing lately, I'm not so sure they win the rest of their conference schedule)

It's a mess from here on out...
4) Georgia State
5) ULL
6) USA
7) ULM
8) NMSU
9) Idaho
10) Texas state
11) CCU
12) GS (they will get a win somewhere)

Not that it matters a lot, but we've beaten #6 & 7 on your list and our conference losses aren't that bad. I think we're right below ULL at 6.

I think GSU and ULL have the best shot at bowls outside the top 3

(10-29-2017 10:29 AM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  I think GSU and ULL have the best shot at bowls outside the top 3

Agreed. I think we go 5-7.

Top Tier

1. Arkansas State
2. Troy
3. APP

Middle of the Pack

4. NMSU
5. GSU
T6. Idaho
T6. South Alabama
T6. ULM
T6. ULL

Bottom Shelf

10. Texas State
11. Georgia Southern
12. Coastal Carolina

* You could argue NMSU being top shelf since their three losses have all been really close games against the Top Tier guys. Will likely put them there if they blow through their remaining schedule. T6 middle of the pack teams are tough to sort out. All have similar conference records and wins over each other.

Elite
1) Ark State (4-0)- Good offense. Good defense. No glaring weakness that I see.
2) Troy (3-1)- I don't see much difference between Trojans and Wolves.

Good
3) App (4-0)- accumulated injuries on offense as App state fans explained. Still stout D though

Above Average (possible bowl team)
4) Georgia State (3-1)- meh offense. good defense. Should be just barely good enough to win rest of the games except App State.
5) NMSU (1-3)- one of better qb plays. nice skill players. Have very winnable games left on their schedule. Could go 4-3 in SunBelt.
6) South Alabama (2-2)- I think size and talent is there on both sides of the ball. good enough for big possible upset against Ark State. Hey that is what Joey Jones' squad does.

Average
7) Idaho (2-2)- Linehan can carry 5wins maybe.
8) ULM (3-3) -fix that swiss cheese defense please. schedule is brutal and I don't see any more wins this season unfortunately.
9) ULL (2-2)- To be honest, I feel very underwhelmed by ULL so far. I don't see 3 more wins unless they upset South Alabama.

Below Average
10) Texas State (1-3)- best of the worst? That's progress
11) Coastal Carolina (0-5)- They look good in some games than others. There's always next year.
12) Georgia Southern (0-3)- I didn't expect Lunsford to magically fix things. Will they over-perform against Georgia State? quite possibly. hatred is strong.

(10-29-2017 10:29 AM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  I think GSU and ULL have the best shot at bowls outside the top 3

Have you looked at ULL's schedule? 4 losses, and they still have to play at Ole Miss and At App State. Lose those and they then have to win out at home against NMSU and GS, and at USA.

That's not exactly easy.

I think the Big 3 bowl joined by Georgia State and the winner of NMSU/USA on Dec 2nd.

would be nice to read the reasoning for why you would put teams in which place.

From what I have seen:

1. AState (Still the most complete team in the league. Played like crap for 30 minutes, but then outscored a very good team 30-7 on the road in the 2nd half

2. Troy (Probably the one team left that can challenge for the top spot. Especially if their running game stays this good)

A Gap Exists here

3. App State (A clear 3, but App is vulnerable. They've not really looked good in a football game outside of the 2nd half of the Idaho game)

4. Georgia State (Gets the edge on NMSU for now after a convincing win over USA. Still give them fair odds of beating App)

5. New Mexico State (A Worrying problem for the Aggies is that the offense looked off kilter all day Saturday. If it's just that AState's defense played well, that's one thing. But NMSU's defense is not deep enough to be able to play lights out for 60 minutes, the offense has to produce for them to win)

6. South Alabama (Jags are going to have to figure things out offensively at some point. Their defense is very good, but teams are going to score on them some. They can't rely on winning every game 19-8.)

A Gap Exists here

7. Idaho; Nice rebound performance this week after a disastrous outing against Mizzou. When on, the Vandals have the ability to play with anyone in the league. When the offense switches off, they could get slaughtered by anyone. Troy awaits.

8. ULM: Everything was going so great for ULM, and then the entire team collectively fell flat. Warhawks are likely underdogs every game rest of season, and risk turning what was a hopeful year to a 3-8 season in one fell swoop.

9. ULL: Of Small solace to Cajuns fans is the intricate knowledge that they indeed did not lose to Bye this week. Bye has given many Sun Belt teams hell this season

10. Texas State: You know, the Bobcats defense isn't particularly terrible. There might be just a small glimmer of hope for the future.

The entirely of FBS and part of FCS exists here

11. Georgia Southern: You know the offense looked pretty good against Troy. The defense? Not so much. Eagles probably left hoping they can beat Coastal in ESPN's pillowfight of the century to get their one win.

12. Coastal Carolina: You have One goal this week: Lose to Arkansas by less than 34 points. Than AState gets to claim they are better than Arkansas thanks to the Transitive property of football!

(10-29-2017 11:11 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 10:29 AM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  I think GSU and ULL have the best shot at bowls outside the top 3

Have you looked at ULL's schedule? 4 losses, and they still have to play at Ole Miss and At App State. Lose those and they then have to win out at home against NMSU and GS, and at USA.

That's not exactly easy.

I think the Big 3 bowl joined by Georgia State and the winner of NMSU/USA on Dec 2nd.

Have you seen Everyone else's schedule are records? Lol

(10-29-2017 11:50 AM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 11:11 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 10:29 AM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  I think GSU and ULL have the best shot at bowls outside the top 3

Have you looked at ULL's schedule? 4 losses, and they still have to play at Ole Miss and At App State. Lose those and they then have to win out at home against NMSU and GS, and at USA.

That's not exactly easy.

I think the Big 3 bowl joined by Georgia State and the winner of NMSU/USA on Dec 2nd.

Have you seen Everyone else's schedule are records? Lol

I have indeed:

Georgia State should be good. They'll be favored to win every game that's not App the rest of the season, and they can beat App on the right day

USA has vs ULL, vs AState, @ GS, @ NMSU They need 3 wins. Assuming they win in Statesboro, they'll need to win a game they are favored in against ULL, and win one more. They'll be heavy underdogs against AState, and slight underdogs against NMSU.

NMSU has @ TX St, @ ULL, vs Idaho, vs USA. Aggies will be favored in likely all 4 games. They need to win 3 of them. If they slip up once, then they have to beat USA in a possible bowl elimination game at the end of the season

ULL has @ USA, vs NMSU, @ Ole Miss, vs GS, @ App State. They need 3 wins. Cajuns will be underdogs in likely every game except GS.

Essentially the last bowl spot comes down to ULL at USA, NMSU at ULL, and USA at NMSU.

Troy is still the #11 rush defense in country and 21st over all defense.

(10-29-2017 12:12 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  Troy is still the #11 rush defense in country and 21st over all defense.

Hmmmm...You know our running game may not make a lot of difference in our game with y'all. We can't run now and we are still winning.

FunBelt is NOT a football conference.

At least basketball seems to be trending upward, thank goodness. If not, it’s gonna be tough going for this conference moving forward.

(10-29-2017 01:04 PM)OsageJ Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 12:12 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  Troy is still the #11 rush defense in country and 21st over all defense.

Hmmmm...You know our running game may not make a lot of difference in our game with y'all. We can't run now and we are still winning.

You guys are a really good team. I have to open with that otherwise you guys will get butthurt every time at what I'm about to say.

Arkansas State's last four opponents scoring defense:

New Mexico State: 99th
Coastal Carolina: 121st
Louisiana: 126th
Georgia Southern: 127th
...
Troy: 11th

That has a lot to do with how you're finding ways to win, and last night they saw a slightly better defense than usual and it gave them fits for 3 quarters. Hansen is a good quarterback but he did not look good with pressure in his face. Troy's depth is much better than those teams and will likely have a better showing. Anderson is a very good playcaller so he may still the same success against USA and Troy. We'll just have to wait and see.

Now go ahead and get butthurt because someone doesn't think you're unbeatable.

(10-29-2017 01:21 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 01:04 PM)OsageJ Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 12:12 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  Troy is still the #11 rush defense in country and 21st over all defense.

Hmmmm...You know our running game may not make a lot of difference in our game with y'all. We can't run now and we are still winning.

You guys are a really good team. I have to open with that otherwise you guys will get butthurt every time at what I'm about to say.

Arkansas State's last four opponents scoring defense:

New Mexico State: 99th
Coastal Carolina: 121st
Louisiana: 126th
Georgia Southern: 127th
...
Troy: 11th

That has a lot to do with how you're finding ways to win, and last night they saw a slightly better defense than usual and it gave them fits for 3 quarters. Hansen is a good quarterback but he did not look good with pressure in his face. Troy's depth is much better than those teams and will likely have a better showing. Anderson is a very good playcaller so he may still the same success against USA and Troy. We'll just have to wait and see.

Now go ahead and get butthurt because someone doesn't think you're unbeatable.

One could make the same argument with your defense. You haven't exactly played top offensive powers this year. Best offense you have seen was NMSU, and our defense was far more dominant against them than yours was.

(10-29-2017 01:27 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 01:21 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 01:04 PM)OsageJ Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 12:12 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  Troy is still the #11 rush defense in country and 21st over all defense.

Hmmmm...You know our running game may not make a lot of difference in our game with y'all. We can't run now and we are still winning.

You guys are a really good team. I have to open with that otherwise you guys will get butthurt every time at what I'm about to say.

Arkansas State's last four opponents scoring defense:

New Mexico State: 99th
Coastal Carolina: 121st
Louisiana: 126th
Georgia Southern: 127th
...
Troy: 11th

That has a lot to do with how you're finding ways to win, and last night they saw a slightly better defense than usual and it gave them fits for 3 quarters. Hansen is a good quarterback but he did not look good with pressure in his face. Troy's depth is much better than those teams and will likely have a better showing. Anderson is a very good playcaller so he may still the same success against USA and Troy. We'll just have to wait and see.

Now go ahead and get butthurt because someone doesn't think you're unbeatable.

One could make the same argument with your defense. You haven't exactly played top offensive powers this year. Best offense you have seen was NMSU, and our defense was far more dominant against them than yours was.

I wouldn't call LSUs offense who we held scoreless through 2.5 quarters a easy task. Especially when they are climbing the rankings

(10-29-2017 01:27 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Best offense you have seen was NMSU, and our defense was far more dominant against them than yours was.

Points are what matters, not yards, and the points were a FG difference. YPG is mostly a useless stat.

(10-29-2017 02:05 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 01:27 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Best offense you have seen was NMSU, and our defense was far more dominant against them than yours was.

Points are what matters, not yards, and the points were a FG difference. YPG is mostly a useless stat.

Sort of. Lets look at those games

Troy gave up 382 total yards to NMSU. Mostly all through the air. NMSU's scoring drives were: 53 yards (FG) 83 yards, 82 yards, and 85 yards. Most of the yards and points came in the 2nd half

AState gave up 256 yards to NMSU. 221 through the air. NMSU had 3 scoring drives against AState. The 3 drives were 24 yards, 83 yards, and 78 yards. Most everything was in the first half.

Outside of one 4th quarter drive, these were NMSU's 2nd half possessions against AState

5 plays 11 yards
3 plays 3 yards
3 plays -11 yards
3 plays 5 yards
3 plays 8 yards
1 play 15 yards
3 plays -3 yards
3 plays 7 yards

In total, outside of the TD Drive, which included a blown coverage for a 50 plus yard gain, the Aggies offense mustered all of 2 first downs and 25 yards in the 2nd half.