RE: Joe Karlgaard's October 2017 podcast
The combo of David’s goodwill to the University, support from some influential former players/alums, doing things the right way, overall likability, and a seven-figure buyout all made it too hard to fire him last year.
So JK put David on what someone on another thread called a ‘performance-improvement-plan’ where David had to articulate (or maybe write) a plan of what was going to change as it was made clear that the status quo was not acceptable for him to retain his job past this season. There is no longer a margin of error. I don’t agree with Walt that JK ‘forced’ the changes on assistants but I do think he gave clear direction that things need to change and David needed to specifically explain what was going to change. Some here may disagree, but I do think both the offensive coordination and defensive coordination are better this year even though statistically it has not shown-up yet. There has been some bad luck with your best playmakers at RB, QB, Defensive Back, OL, and other positions being hurt, the Australian junket, the hurricane, etc. but kind of irrelevant as David is out of get out jail free cards that were present in prior years.
IMO when we reflect back on what sealed his fate the most, will be the failure to capitalize on recruiting talent off the back of the building of the EZF and his winning seasons from 12-14 to get the program to the next level. While there are pockets of talent (e.g., Martin, Womac, etc.), the talent gap has widened on DB’s watch over the past 5 years. He has recruited 7 QB’s since DJ and none of them have shown anything comparable to McH and CC (and not even DJ). So you can put whatever coaching and schemes you want, but if you don’t have the talent and QB play to compete with those schemes, it does not matter. DB is not going to out coach, out execute, out detail, out adjust at halftime, or out prepare other teams but he has shown he can win and win a championship with NFL talent surrounded by solid QB’s who can make plays with feet and arm. So if you don’t recruit those things to the roster in the first place, the results like this year are pretty predictable. Thus, the changes made never really had much of a chance to succeed in first place.
So there have been a few ups, lots of downs, but if you were to graph a line of performance on the y-axis and years of the program on DB’s watch on the x-axis, the 2017 datapoint plot is less than the 2006 plot when he was hired after Toad left with a .500 team on the upswing. In other words, the program has regressed as measured by performance (vs. graduation rates or other non-on-the-field metrics). Meanwhile, our football ‘peers’ in 2007 (e.g., Houston, SMU, Tulane, Service Academies, Memphis, etc.) all surpassed Rice during that same time while teams we would have considered ourselves much superior to in 2007 (e.g., UTSA, La Tech, WKU, NT, etc.) have surpassed us as well. Now our peers are UTEP, FIU, FAU, Charlotte, and Old Dominion. Only levels below that peer group are Sunbelt and FCS.
I am reading the tea leaves of last paragraph in the Thresher article plus the Podcast that absent a 6-0 finish, DB’s fate is now sealed. As someone on another thread said, early December is probably likely to save as much $ as possible. I would not be shocked to see some feelers and headhunters already being engaged to move fast but the external optics will be celebration of his commitment to Rice, celebrating his ‘right way’ approach, etc. I have a hard time seeing JK, Leebron, and others doing something that is not done in a classy and respectful way. At a human level, DB deserves and has earned that celebration of character.
DB will be a great analyst for CBSC, BeIN, FB Live, or other tier-2 networks showcasing G5 football. So likable and personable that he will show well on TV, especially with his connections. If Frank Wilson moves on to greener pastures (likely) or Everett Withers gets fired (also likely), I could also see DB return closer to home and come full circle but hard to see another head coaching opportunity present itself unless he chooses the Fred Goldsmith or Todd Dodge route and goes back to High School. Maybe Gary Patterson or some other close mate hires him as a coordinator. But bottom line is that DB will undoubtedly land on his feet and be told how hard it is to win at Rice, how he started a Rice Renaissance in football, etc. In other words, what happened over past 10+ years was not his fault. Some cringe here on that but likability/respect will trump the reality of the situation
For Rice, JK has only one bite at the apple left for relevance. He needs a Hail Mary hire. Make a mistake and the world will finally pass us by for good. We are still in the race with a Jim Carey ‘so your are saying I have a chance’ but the water in the pot is now getting close to boiling. Many lost decades since the glory days of the 40’s and 50’s but 2007-17 was also a lost decade for the program in a sea of so much macro change where FBS football world moved faster than Rice.
Will be unrealistic expectations on the shoulders of the coach for the 2018 team. But for now, I will take some hope, pride, and optimism and get rid of this current feeling of embarrassment and apathy.
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