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How many bowl teams will the ACC have?
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ken d Online
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Post: #21
RE: How many bowl teams will the ACC have?
(11-10-2017 12:31 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  Cuse really needs a win vs Wake tomorrow. A loss would really put their backs against the wall. Cuse finishes: Wake, @Ville, BC

Not a murderous row...but all quality teams.

From the league's point of view, a Syracuse win tomorrow is the better outcome. All three of Cuse's remaining opponents have not yet become eligible, but all three of them could do so even if they lose their Syracuse game.

BC could get there by beating UConn, against whom they will be heavily favored.

Louisville can get there by beating Virginia (which is already eligible), where they are heavily favored, or by beating rival Kentucky.

Wake Forest could get there by beating either in state rival NC State (as an underdog) or Duke (as a favorite).

And Duke could become eligible with wins over Army and Georgia Tech even if they lose to Wake in Week 13.

If the goal is to maximize the league's chances, we should be rooting for the Orange.
11-10-2017 01:56 PM
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Hallcity Offline
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Post: #22
RE: How many bowl teams will the ACC have?
(11-10-2017 01:56 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 12:31 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  Cuse really needs a win vs Wake tomorrow. A loss would really put their backs against the wall. Cuse finishes: Wake, @Ville, BC

Not a murderous row...but all quality teams.

From the league's point of view, a Syracuse win tomorrow is the better outcome. All three of Cuse's remaining opponents have not yet become eligible, but all three of them could do so even if they lose their Syracuse game.

BC could get there by beating UConn, against whom they will be heavily favored.

Louisville can get there by beating Virginia (which is already eligible), where they are heavily favored, or by beating rival Kentucky.

Wake Forest could get there by beating either in state rival NC State (as an underdog) or Duke (as a favorite).

And Duke could become eligible with wins over Army and Georgia Tech even if they lose to Wake in Week 13.

If the goal is to maximize the league's chances, we should be rooting for the Orange.

Duke is probably in just with a win over Army. Every year teams go to bowl games with 5-7 records. That happens if there aren't enough six win teams to fill the bowl games and that has always been the case since the number of bowl games expanded to its current level. It's based on Academic Progress Rate and Duke is at the top of the heap there. A bowl game can't pass over Duke to take another 5-7 team with a lower APR.
11-10-2017 03:59 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #23
RE: How many bowl teams will the ACC have?
(11-10-2017 10:03 AM)ken d Wrote:  Ga Tech's cancelled game puts them in the hole.

Only GT has put GT in a hole this season.
11-10-2017 04:18 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #24
RE: How many bowl teams will the ACC have?
(11-10-2017 03:59 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 01:56 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 12:31 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  Cuse really needs a win vs Wake tomorrow. A loss would really put their backs against the wall. Cuse finishes: Wake, @Ville, BC

Not a murderous row...but all quality teams.

From the league's point of view, a Syracuse win tomorrow is the better outcome. All three of Cuse's remaining opponents have not yet become eligible, but all three of them could do so even if they lose their Syracuse game.

BC could get there by beating UConn, against whom they will be heavily favored.

Louisville can get there by beating Virginia (which is already eligible), where they are heavily favored, or by beating rival Kentucky.

Wake Forest could get there by beating either in state rival NC State (as an underdog) or Duke (as a favorite).

And Duke could become eligible with wins over Army and Georgia Tech even if they lose to Wake in Week 13.

If the goal is to maximize the league's chances, we should be rooting for the Orange.

Duke is probably in just with a win over Army. Every year teams go to bowl games with 5-7 records. That happens if there aren't enough six win teams to fill the bowl games and that has always been the case since the number of bowl games expanded to its current level. It's based on Academic Progress Rate and Duke is at the top of the heap there. A bowl game can't pass over Duke to take another 5-7 team with a lower APR.

But will a 5-6 team get taken over a 5-7 team with a great APR?
11-10-2017 04:47 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #25
RE: How many bowl teams will the ACC have?
(11-10-2017 03:59 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 01:56 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 12:31 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  Cuse really needs a win vs Wake tomorrow. A loss would really put their backs against the wall. Cuse finishes: Wake, @Ville, BC

Not a murderous row...but all quality teams.

From the league's point of view, a Syracuse win tomorrow is the better outcome. All three of Cuse's remaining opponents have not yet become eligible, but all three of them could do so even if they lose their Syracuse game.

BC could get there by beating UConn, against whom they will be heavily favored.

Louisville can get there by beating Virginia (which is already eligible), where they are heavily favored, or by beating rival Kentucky.

Wake Forest could get there by beating either in state rival NC State (as an underdog) or Duke (as a favorite).

And Duke could become eligible with wins over Army and Georgia Tech even if they lose to Wake in Week 13.

If the goal is to maximize the league's chances, we should be rooting for the Orange.

Duke is probably in just with a win over Army. Every year teams go to bowl games with 5-7 records. That happens if there aren't enough six win teams to fill the bowl games and that has always been the case since the number of bowl games expanded to its current level. It's based on Academic Progress Rate and Duke is at the top of the heap there. A bowl game can't pass over Duke to take another 5-7 team with a lower APR.

Recently, some teams have gotten in without the requisite six wins. If there aren't enough six win teams, Duke is in good shape, trailing only Air Force in APR among teams who still haven't qualified conventionally.

This year, it's beginning to look likely that 78 teams will qualify without having to resort to APR. Duke needs to play believing they need two more wins. Desperation is a big motivator.
11-10-2017 04:54 PM
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