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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-17-2017 01:05 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 11:57 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Just some notes:

Early projections indicate that more than 78 teams will be eligible this year, so some 6-6 teams will get left out. That also means no Waivers will get through if those projections stay to form

The Sun Belt does not have a tie in with the Frisco Bowl. In fact, if we hit 6 teams, it's entirely likely one of those 6 does not go bowling.

The understanding I have is that ULM and Florida State will make up their hurricane out on December 2nd assuming FSU doesn't make the ACC title game. Both AState and Georgia State will run with 11 game schedules rather than make up their Coward outs.

So lets start looking at potential 6-6 teams from the Belt that might not be safe

Safe

App.
Troy

Probably safe

Ark State still has work to do. They play @USA, @ULM, @NMSU and host Texas State, ULL, and Troy. They need 3 from that. I think they get 3, but if they lose to ULL, it might get a bit interesting for them.

On the fence - I think at least one stumbles

Georgia State. Needs 3 to bowl. They host Troy, USA, App, and Idaho and travel to Ga Southern and Texas State. I think they get there - barely. But they'll probably be a less desirable pick at 6-6

ULL - Needs 3 to bowl. @Ark State, @USA, @Ole Miss, NMSU, Ga Southern, @App. I'm thinking that the USA vs ULL game might be a real key to whether they're in the discussion going forward. Lose that and they'll need to upset someone along the way.

ULM - Needs 3 to bowl. They're actually in a pretty desperate scenario as they have to play @USA, @Idaho, @Auburn and host App and Ark State. They lose to USA or Idaho and I think they're in real trouble.

in Trouble - Could get to a bowl, but is in trouble. I think 1 of the 3 makes it.

NMSU Needs 3 from Ark State, @Texas State, @ULL, Idaho, USA.

USA Needs 4 from ULM, @Ga State, ULL, Ark State, @Ga Southern, @NMSU. Could lose all 6. Could run the table too. Who knows.

Idaho. Needs 4 from @Missouri, ULM, @Troy, Coastal, @NMSU, @Georgia State

----

If ULM loses at USA, they're pretty much done.
If Idaho loses to anyone in conference, they're done unless they beat Missouri.
ULL hasn't won in Mobile - ever. This might be a must win for the Cajuns
USA hasn't beaten Ark State or Ga Southern, ever. USA really needs at least one of those to bowl.

As far as the picks go.

New Orleans Bowl..ULL if eligible period.
Mobile...Usually takes the best team, which by record might be App
Camelia...Will probably take Troy if they're still on the board.
Cure...Took Ark State last year, but originally picked USA
Arizona...Prefers NMSU if eligible.

Oddly enough, the team that might be scrambling at this point might be Arkansas State. They travel really well, but if they finish 6-6 and so does ULL and NMSU, then they might be looking at either the Cure Bowl taking them again or the Arizona Bowl not taking NMSU.

Geez Tom, how many games do you have us losing? We're going to be favored every game the rest of the season with the exception of Troy, which is probably going to be a 1-2 point line either direction.

For the record, it was a combination of the AAC/CBSSN that vetoed USA to Orlando.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2017 10:02 PM by chiefsfan.)
10-17-2017 10:01 PM
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indianE Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-16-2017 10:35 AM)Paraprosdokian Wrote:  I'd love to play NIU, but not in the Cure Bowl.

If we have to play Toledo again, I might burn this mfkr down.

I would love to play Marshall in NOLA or NIU in the Cure (but I thought the cure was vs AAC?). I went to every stAte bowl came since our new orleans bowl in Lafayette vs southern miss and the CURE bowl folks was the best game experience of the bunch.
10-17-2017 10:13 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-17-2017 10:13 PM)indianE Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 10:35 AM)Paraprosdokian Wrote:  I'd love to play NIU, but not in the Cure Bowl.

If we have to play Toledo again, I might burn this mfkr down.

I would love to play Marshall in NOLA or NIU in the Cure (but I thought the cure was vs AAC?). I went to every stAte bowl came since our new orleans bowl in Lafayette vs southern miss and the CURE bowl folks was the best game experience of the bunch.

The game is tied into the AAC, but there's a lot of talk the AAC won't get enough eligible teams to fill it this year. It's like their 8th tie in, and they are currently projected to get 6 in, including an Access rep.
10-17-2017 10:26 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-17-2017 10:01 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:05 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 11:57 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Just some notes:

Early projections indicate that more than 78 teams will be eligible this year, so some 6-6 teams will get left out. That also means no Waivers will get through if those projections stay to form

The Sun Belt does not have a tie in with the Frisco Bowl. In fact, if we hit 6 teams, it's entirely likely one of those 6 does not go bowling.

The understanding I have is that ULM and Florida State will make up their hurricane out on December 2nd assuming FSU doesn't make the ACC title game. Both AState and Georgia State will run with 11 game schedules rather than make up their Coward outs.

So lets start looking at potential 6-6 teams from the Belt that might not be safe

Safe

App.
Troy

Probably safe

Ark State still has work to do. They play @USA, @ULM, @NMSU and host Texas State, ULL, and Troy. They need 3 from that. I think they get 3, but if they lose to ULL, it might get a bit interesting for them.

On the fence - I think at least one stumbles

Georgia State. Needs 3 to bowl. They host Troy, USA, App, and Idaho and travel to Ga Southern and Texas State. I think they get there - barely. But they'll probably be a less desirable pick at 6-6

ULL - Needs 3 to bowl. @Ark State, @USA, @Ole Miss, NMSU, Ga Southern, @App. I'm thinking that the USA vs ULL game might be a real key to whether they're in the discussion going forward. Lose that and they'll need to upset someone along the way.

ULM - Needs 3 to bowl. They're actually in a pretty desperate scenario as they have to play @USA, @Idaho, @Auburn and host App and Ark State. They lose to USA or Idaho and I think they're in real trouble.

in Trouble - Could get to a bowl, but is in trouble. I think 1 of the 3 makes it.

NMSU Needs 3 from Ark State, @Texas State, @ULL, Idaho, USA.

USA Needs 4 from ULM, @Ga State, ULL, Ark State, @Ga Southern, @NMSU. Could lose all 6. Could run the table too. Who knows.

Idaho. Needs 4 from @Missouri, ULM, @Troy, Coastal, @NMSU, @Georgia State

----

If ULM loses at USA, they're pretty much done.
If Idaho loses to anyone in conference, they're done unless they beat Missouri.
ULL hasn't won in Mobile - ever. This might be a must win for the Cajuns
USA hasn't beaten Ark State or Ga Southern, ever. USA really needs at least one of those to bowl.

As far as the picks go.

New Orleans Bowl..ULL if eligible period.
Mobile...Usually takes the best team, which by record might be App
Camelia...Will probably take Troy if they're still on the board.
Cure...Took Ark State last year, but originally picked USA
Arizona...Prefers NMSU if eligible.

Oddly enough, the team that might be scrambling at this point might be Arkansas State. They travel really well, but if they finish 6-6 and so does ULL and NMSU, then they might be looking at either the Cure Bowl taking them again or the Arizona Bowl not taking NMSU.

Geez Tom, how many games do you have us losing? We'regoing to be favored every game the rest of the season with the exception of Troy, which is probably going to be a 1-2 point line either direction.

For the record, it was a combination of the AAC/CBSSN that vetoed USA to Orlando.

You aren't there yet. You could win every single game, but I wouldn't be stunned if you didn't make it. Your schedule is a bit unbalanced if you guys underperform. First, you get home games with ULL and Troy, which you could lose. Then you have to play on the road at USA and ULM, which you could also lose.

I think you make it, and make it with some margin, but your schedule hasn't proven anything yet. You beat Coastal and Ga Southern soundly, but these two teams have a combined record of 1-10 (plus a bad FCS team) You got spanked by SMU and played a Nebraska team close in week one.

I *think* Arkansas State is going to make it. But there's nothing in your resume this year that shows that you guys are a lock for a bowl. Beating ULL would go a long way towards that (as well as helping contribute towards potentially freeing up a bowl slot in New Orleans). I'm just looking at your record so far this year. That's all I'm basing it on so far.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2017 11:59 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
10-17-2017 11:42 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-17-2017 11:42 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 10:01 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:05 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 11:57 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Just some notes:

Early projections indicate that more than 78 teams will be eligible this year, so some 6-6 teams will get left out. That also means no Waivers will get through if those projections stay to form

The Sun Belt does not have a tie in with the Frisco Bowl. In fact, if we hit 6 teams, it's entirely likely one of those 6 does not go bowling.

The understanding I have is that ULM and Florida State will make up their hurricane out on December 2nd assuming FSU doesn't make the ACC title game. Both AState and Georgia State will run with 11 game schedules rather than make up their Coward outs.

So lets start looking at potential 6-6 teams from the Belt that might not be safe

Safe

App.
Troy

Probably safe

Ark State still has work to do. They play @USA, @ULM, @NMSU and host Texas State, ULL, and Troy. They need 3 from that. I think they get 3, but if they lose to ULL, it might get a bit interesting for them.

On the fence - I think at least one stumbles

Georgia State. Needs 3 to bowl. They host Troy, USA, App, and Idaho and travel to Ga Southern and Texas State. I think they get there - barely. But they'll probably be a less desirable pick at 6-6

ULL - Needs 3 to bowl. @Ark State, @USA, @Ole Miss, NMSU, Ga Southern, @App. I'm thinking that the USA vs ULL game might be a real key to whether they're in the discussion going forward. Lose that and they'll need to upset someone along the way.

ULM - Needs 3 to bowl. They're actually in a pretty desperate scenario as they have to play @USA, @Idaho, @Auburn and host App and Ark State. They lose to USA or Idaho and I think they're in real trouble.

in Trouble - Could get to a bowl, but is in trouble. I think 1 of the 3 makes it.

NMSU Needs 3 from Ark State, @Texas State, @ULL, Idaho, USA.

USA Needs 4 from ULM, @Ga State, ULL, Ark State, @Ga Southern, @NMSU. Could lose all 6. Could run the table too. Who knows.

Idaho. Needs 4 from @Missouri, ULM, @Troy, Coastal, @NMSU, @Georgia State

----

If ULM loses at USA, they're pretty much done.
If Idaho loses to anyone in conference, they're done unless they beat Missouri.
ULL hasn't won in Mobile - ever. This might be a must win for the Cajuns
USA hasn't beaten Ark State or Ga Southern, ever. USA really needs at least one of those to bowl.

As far as the picks go.

New Orleans Bowl..ULL if eligible period.
Mobile...Usually takes the best team, which by record might be App
Camelia...Will probably take Troy if they're still on the board.
Cure...Took Ark State last year, but originally picked USA
Arizona...Prefers NMSU if eligible.

Oddly enough, the team that might be scrambling at this point might be Arkansas State. They travel really well, but if they finish 6-6 and so does ULL and NMSU, then they might be looking at either the Cure Bowl taking them again or the Arizona Bowl not taking NMSU.

Geez Tom, how many games do you have us losing? We'regoing to be favored every game the rest of the season with the exception of Troy, which is probably going to be a 1-2 point line either direction.

For the record, it was a combination of the AAC/CBSSN that vetoed USA to Orlando.

You aren't there yet. You could win every single game, but I wouldn't be stunned if you didn't make it. Your schedule is a bit unbalanced if you guys underperform. First, you get home games with ULL and Troy, which you could lose. Then you have to play on the road at USA and ULM, which you could also lose.

I think you make it, and make it with some margin, but your schedule hasn't proven anything yet. You beat Coastal and Ga Southern soundly, but these two teams have a combined record of 1-10 (plus a bad FCS team) You got spanked by SMU and played a Nebraska team close in week one.

I *think* Arkansas State is going to make it. But there's nothing in your resume this year that shows that you guys are a lock for a bowl. Beating ULL would go a long way towards that (as well as helping contribute towards potentially freeing up a bowl slot in New Orleans). I'm just looking at your record so far this year. That's all I'm basing it on so far.

Oh I'm merely pointing out that you've come up with a pretty wild scenario that keeps us out. It includes losing a game to a team that has never beaten us, a game to a team that hasn't beaten us since 2009, a game to a team that hasn't beaten us since 2010, and a game to a team that has beaten us in Jonesboro twice in the entire history of the series.
10-18-2017 12:49 AM
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Seminole Indian Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-17-2017 10:01 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 01:05 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(10-17-2017 11:57 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Just some notes:

Early projections indicate that more than 78 teams will be eligible this year, so some 6-6 teams will get left out. That also means no Waivers will get through if those projections stay to form

The Sun Belt does not have a tie in with the Frisco Bowl. In fact, if we hit 6 teams, it's entirely likely one of those 6 does not go bowling.

The understanding I have is that ULM and Florida State will make up their hurricane out on December 2nd assuming FSU doesn't make the ACC title game. Both AState and Georgia State will run with 11 game schedules rather than make up their Coward outs.

So lets start looking at potential 6-6 teams from the Belt that might not be safe

Safe

App.
Troy

Probably safe

Ark State still has work to do. They play @USA, @ULM, @NMSU and host Texas State, ULL, and Troy. They need 3 from that. I think they get 3, but if they lose to ULL, it might get a bit interesting for them.

On the fence - I think at least one stumbles

Georgia State. Needs 3 to bowl. They host Troy, USA, App, and Idaho and travel to Ga Southern and Texas State. I think they get there - barely. But they'll probably be a less desirable pick at 6-6

ULL - Needs 3 to bowl. @Ark State, @USA, @Ole Miss, NMSU, Ga Southern, @App. I'm thinking that the USA vs ULL game might be a real key to whether they're in the discussion going forward. Lose that and they'll need to upset someone along the way.

ULM - Needs 3 to bowl. They're actually in a pretty desperate scenario as they have to play @USA, @Idaho, @Auburn and host App and Ark State. They lose to USA or Idaho and I think they're in real trouble.

in Trouble - Could get to a bowl, but is in trouble. I think 1 of the 3 makes it.

NMSU Needs 3 from Ark State, @Texas State, @ULL, Idaho, USA.

USA Needs 4 from ULM, @Ga State, ULL, Ark State, @Ga Southern, @NMSU. Could lose all 6. Could run the table too. Who knows.

Idaho. Needs 4 from @Missouri, ULM, @Troy, Coastal, @NMSU, @Georgia State

----

If ULM loses at USA, they're pretty much done.
If Idaho loses to anyone in conference, they're done unless they beat Missouri.
ULL hasn't won in Mobile - ever. This might be a must win for the Cajuns
USA hasn't beaten Ark State or Ga Southern, ever. USA really needs at least one of those to bowl.

As far as the picks go.

New Orleans Bowl..ULL if eligible period.
Mobile...Usually takes the best team, which by record might be App
Camelia...Will probably take Troy if they're still on the board.
Cure...Took Ark State last year, but originally picked USA
Arizona...Prefers NMSU if eligible.

Oddly enough, the team that might be scrambling at this point might be Arkansas State. They travel really well, but if they finish 6-6 and so does ULL and NMSU, then they might be looking at either the Cure Bowl taking them again or the Arizona Bowl not taking NMSU.

Geez Tom, how many games do you have us losing? We're going to be favored every game the rest of the season with the exception of Troy, which is probably going to be a 1-2 point line either direction.

For the record, it was a combination of the AAC/CBSSN that vetoed USA to Orlando.
You will be favored over Troy. You should be favored in every SBC game this year and next year and actuality picked to win the SBC next year. I don't even think Blake Anderson can screw this up. Well yes he can, but he will have to work hard at it.
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2017 08:08 AM by Seminole Indian.)
10-18-2017 08:02 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
I am going to agree with Seminole on a point.
2018 will be the first time AState is picked to win the Sun Belt. Too many guys coming back.
10-18-2017 08:57 AM
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Post: #28
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-18-2017 08:57 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I am going to agree with Seminole on a point.
2018 will be the first time AState is picked to win the Sun Belt. Too many guys coming back.

and more of those "funky" game changing transfers from other 4 year schools.

I'm sure the other SBC coaches and fans would insert another "F" word.
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2017 09:31 AM by Seminole Indian.)
10-18-2017 09:27 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
Look, lets see how things stand after tomorrow night. For the record, I want Ark State to beat ULL

I just don't see anything in Ark State's record this year that portends dominance. Nor do I think it reasonable to assume that based upon a 1 point road win and a 4th quarter comeback (with lots of help) that Arkansas State is destined to win in Mobile. Nor do I think that overlooking ULM on the road is a good idea. Nor do I think Troy is going to roll over for you guys like they did last time (or against USA last week). I also don't see much difference between your record and ULL's this year.
10-18-2017 09:45 AM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-18-2017 09:45 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Look, lets see how things stand after tomorrow night. For the record, I want Ark State to beat ULL

I just don't see anything in Ark State's record this year that portends dominance. Nor do I think it reasonable to assume that based upon a 1 point road win and a 4th quarter comeback (with lots of help) that Arkansas State is destined to win in Mobile. Nor do I think that overlooking ULM on the road is a good idea. Nor do I think Troy is going to roll over for you guys like they did last time (or against USA last week). I also don't see much difference between your record and ULL's this year.

And the rest of us are simply pointing out that we run into this exact same scenario every season. Mid October, we're a game over .500. Been blown out a couple times in OOC play, finally playing a game against a decent team in the conference, and listening to everyoine point out how we're not that impressive.

Every year we go ahead and win the conference anyway. But hey, go ahead. Maybe this year is different than the other 5 years.
10-18-2017 11:08 AM
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Post: #31
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-18-2017 11:08 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  And the rest of us are simply pointing out that we run into this exact same scenario every season. Mid October, we're a game over .500. Been blown out a couple times in OOC play, finally playing a game against a decent team in the conference, and listening to everyoine point out how we're not that impressive.

Every year we go ahead and win the conference anyway. But hey, go ahead. Maybe this year is different than the other 5 years.


I ask again, what do previous seasons and teams have to do with this season? I certainly think Ark St will be bowling this year, but you shouldn't be surprised when no one is impressed that you've blown up two teams with a single 1 between them, and also lit up a crappy FCS school. How can you blame people for wanting to see Ark St face something a little more challenging before they immediately claim them kings of the universe?

Your next two games are against teams that actually have a little fight in them. Beat them and the doubt fades away.
10-18-2017 01:14 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-16-2017 02:17 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  CUSA is in a weird spot because that league is so wide open this year. They might actually have 10 bowl eligible teams, but with no one having more than 7 wins by the time this is over.

Marshall is 5-1, my guess is they win more than 2 of their next 6 games, which includes MTSU, FIU, FAU, WKU, UTSA and USM. I think we can end up 9-3 or better.

(10-16-2017 04:55 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  Would like to see a forced match-up of App and Marshall. Would create a level of intrigue to the game not common for most bowls.

Intriguing for who. If Marshall gets to pick the bowl it goes to then they will choose the highest ranked team to play. See 2014, Marshall choose to go to Boca Raton to play NIU who had previously been ranked that year and was receiving votes. Rather than go to Dallas and play Illinois. If they don't get to chose then most likely we will be sent to one of the 2 FL bowls. Marshall has 36 players from Florida and 9 from GA.
10-18-2017 02:11 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-18-2017 11:08 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 09:45 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Look, lets see how things stand after tomorrow night. For the record, I want Ark State to beat ULL

I just don't see anything in Ark State's record this year that portends dominance. Nor do I think it reasonable to assume that based upon a 1 point road win and a 4th quarter comeback (with lots of help) that Arkansas State is destined to win in Mobile. Nor do I think that overlooking ULM on the road is a good idea. Nor do I think Troy is going to roll over for you guys like they did last time (or against USA last week). I also don't see much difference between your record and ULL's this year.

And the rest of us are simply pointing out that we run into this exact same scenario every season. Mid October, we're a game over .500. Been blown out a couple times in OOC play, finally playing a game against a decent team in the conference, and listening to everyoine point out how we're not that impressive.

Every year we go ahead and win the conference anyway. But hey, go ahead. Maybe this year is different than the other 5 years.

There's bad juju going on right now. I'm not feeling title #6 right now.
10-18-2017 04:08 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
OK.. Ark State now is safe for a bowl.

ULL still needs three from @USA, @Ole Miss, NMSU, Ga Southern, and @ App. They get 16 days to sort out their team before they travel to Mobile.
10-19-2017 10:22 PM
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