Currently, both are in top 20. It has been said neither has a chance of CFP playoffs. So, assuming either goes undefeated through the conference champ game, what is the realistic ceiling. #10, #8, #6??

Id guess the highest the comittee will allow a G5 team this season is 15. I think Houston had a shot at the playoffs last season if they won out but i doubt another team ever sniffs that close again.

(10-15-2017 07:11 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Currently, both are in top 20. It has been said neither has a chance of CFP playoffs. So, assuming either goes undefeated through the conference champ game, what is the realistic ceiling. #10, #8, #6??

Probably around 8-10, same problem i pointed out about stanford winning out. Too many other teams who will stay in front. Georgia, alabama, ohio st, washington, penn st/michigan, clemson, miami, etc.

UCF would have the better ranking or playoff spot if they won out. They would have a win over Maryland, #25 Memphis, and most likely top 10 USF. If USF wins out then they will have a win over a potential top 10 UCF. I hope both teams are undefeated when they play

(10-15-2017 07:18 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  Id guess the highest the comittee will allow a G5 team this season is 15. I think Houston had a shot at the playoffs last season if they won out but i doubt another team ever sniffs that close again.

I disagree. Let's say USF or UCF runs the table and finishes undefeated (a big if, but we're talking highest theoretical). By the end of the season, there would be, at best, 4 other undefeated teams (Bama or Georgia, Penn State or Wisconsin, Miami and TCU). I don't for one second believe that Miami or TCU finishes undefeated, so I think, at best, it's Bama and Penn State/Wisconsin, and I think when all is said and done, Ohio State still wins the B1G. Meanwhile, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State will beat each other up enough that the losers will drop, as will at least two of USC, Washington and Wazzu, two of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU and three of Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and NC State. If I were a betting person and without any big upsets, you're looking at a final playoff rankings where Bama, Georgia, Wisconsin, the B1G East winner, Clemson, one other ACC team, the Pac-12 champ and the Big XII champ are ranked ahead of an undefeated AAC champ, so I say they reach #9. If the chips fall right, I could see it being higher, but I'd bet big on getting into the top 10.

Of course, finishing undefeated is a giant if...

USFFan

(10-15-2017 07:18 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  Id guess the highest the comittee will allow a G5 team this season is 15. I think Houston had a shot at the playoffs last season if they won out but i doubt another team ever sniffs that close again.

The highest ranking for a G5 team by the committee was 13 for Memphis in 2015. Memphis screwed it up that year, but that was the highest before or since:

"Brett McMurphy @McMurphyESPN

No. 13 Memphis makes history as highest ranked team from Group of 5 conference. Boise State was No. 20 in final @CFBPlayoff poll last year
11/3/2015, 6:08:53 PM"

(10-15-2017 07:40 PM)cotton1991 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 07:18 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  Id guess the highest the comittee will allow a G5 team this season is 15. I think Houston had a shot at the playoffs last season if they won out but i doubt another team ever sniffs that close again.

The highest ranking for a G5 team by the committee was 13 for Memphis in 2015. Memphis screwed it up that year, but that was the highest before or since:

"Brett McMurphy @McMurphyESPN

No. 13 Memphis makes history as highest ranked team from Group of 5 conference. Boise State was No. 20 in final @CFBPlayoff poll last year
11/3/2015, 6:08:53 PM"

Highest we got was #10

(10-15-2017 07:57 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 07:40 PM)cotton1991 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 07:18 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  Id guess the highest the comittee will allow a G5 team this season is 15. I think Houston had a shot at the playoffs last season if they won out but i doubt another team ever sniffs that close again.

The highest ranking for a G5 team by the committee was 13 for Memphis in 2015. Memphis screwed it up that year, but that was the highest before or since:

"Brett McMurphy @McMurphyESPN

No. 13 Memphis makes history as highest ranked team from Group of 5 conference. Boise State was No. 20 in final @CFBPlayoff poll last year
11/3/2015, 6:08:53 PM"

Highest we got was #10

Yea, but that was before the CFP and after the Baylor win. AP 10 and Coaches 12. Problem was that we hit a glass ceiling the weeks prior to the AAC CG, hell......even after beating Louisville, the polls still continued to rank us behind Louisville.

If undefeated I think they would be 8-10 enough to get credit but not really be playoffs contenders

If UCF stays undefeated and wins the peach........ providing they keep Frost, they will probably be preseason 12 to 18. With UNC and Pitt on their schedule, if they go undefeated again, I wonder if they can in fact sneak into the playoff, or at least have serious consideration providing the AAC is strong again.

(10-15-2017 07:57 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 07:40 PM)cotton1991 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 07:18 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  Id guess the highest the comittee will allow a G5 team this season is 15. I think Houston had a shot at the playoffs last season if they won out but i doubt another team ever sniffs that close again.

The highest ranking for a G5 team by the committee was 13 for Memphis in 2015. Memphis screwed it up that year, but that was the highest before or since:

"Brett McMurphy @McMurphyESPN

No. 13 Memphis makes history as highest ranked team from Group of 5 conference. Boise State was No. 20 in final @CFBPlayoff poll last year
11/3/2015, 6:08:53 PM"

Highest we got was #10

What year was that? As I understand it, the CFP thing started in the 2014-2015 season. UCF was ranked 10 for the 2013-2014 season in either the AP or coaches poll. That's a completely different thing from the CFP poll.

(10-15-2017 08:06 PM)Cubanbull Wrote:  If undefeated I think they would be 8-10 enough to get credit but not really be playoffs contenders

This. Navy would have had a better change to crack it since they have ND on the schedule.

Shame. Houston had a chance last year.

#4 and playing Alabama in the playoffs.

There is a glass ceiling around 10.

You would hope that the winner of the War on I-4, would get a big boost in the rankings.

Then turn around and play a ranked Memphis team in the championship.

I just think CFP voters are going to constantly compare SOS. USF having one of the weakest SOS in the country. UCF with a middle of the pack SOS in the 70's. Losing the GTech game hurt

Talking regular season here?
Regular season, I'd say #10.
After AAC CG #8.
After Bowl #5.

Sent from my SM-J700T using CSNbbs mobile app

To answer the original question, if your conference doesn't have an AD on the playoff committee, the ceiling is probably 10 before the last ranking and 6 on the last ranking (5 would make the obvious exclusion, even too obvious for them).

Highest will be 8 to 11. Just low enough they don't have to explain leaving them out.
What could be fun though is 1 or 2 Undefeated in playoffs, and everyone else has 2 plus losses.
The AAC really needs USF, UCF to win out until their game, then win champ game while Navy gets no more than one more loss.
and Memphis run table to Champ game n lose to UCF/USF winner.

Undefeated UCF or USF would be a lock. A one loss Memphis that beats a one loss UCF or USF would also be a lock. Any other scenario would leave the door open to another team but I still think the committee would value the AAC schedule over the MWC or MAC. If SDSU has a rematch with Boise State and destroys them then things might get interesting as the first game would be considered a fluke. SDSU's problem is their own division is very bad. Lower than the Missouri Valley bad, grouped withe the entire MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt bad. Roughly speaking outside of the power five, the entire AAC, and MWC Mountain division is considered a tier above everyone else.

USF can get into the top 10 by Black Friday. UCF needs more help. #8 for USF by Black Friday. #13 for UCF by Black Friday.

(10-16-2017 07:04 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  USF can get into the top 10 by Black Friday. UCF needs more help. #8 for USF by Black Friday. #13 for UCF by Black Friday.

The playoff committee is not going to put USF in the top 10. They had 10-0 Houston at #24 a few years ago, and that was with a tougher schedule than USF's.

USF's only points in their favor are the higher starter ranking (playoff committee largely ignores this) and consistent, larger margins of victory (considered, but SOS factors in).