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Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
(10-16-2017 08:27 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(10-15-2017 11:16 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-15-2017 06:42 PM)FriscoDawg Wrote:  Using the Sagarin Predictor for the rest of the schedules excluding championship games, 81 teams would be at 6-6 or better. That wouldn't include Florida at 5-6 (possible NCAA waiver for having a game lost due to weather) and BYU at 6-7.

Conference breakdown would be AAC 6, ACC 10, Big 12 7, Big Ten 9, C-USA 10, Indy 2, MAC 7, MWC 7, Pac 12 9, SEC 9, SBC 5. Three teams from that group would miss out (4 if Florida manages to get in).

That would be a screwy scenario for CUSA. P5 covers more of their slots than usual, and a ton of teams barely get eligible. At least 3 teams get left out of the 10 if that scenario comes to pass.

Don't seven win teams get in before 6-6 teams? The OP projects CUSA with 10 seven win teams.

No. The rule is that 6-6 must get in over any team that needs a Waiver to get eligible (2 FCS, Hurricane issues, 5-7 whatever)

Unfortunately, a 6-6 crappy SEC team is always going to be selected before any 7 win G5. Essentially what would happen in said scenario is that before any extra G5 slots are filled, the extra P5 teams would find bowls. The one or two bowls left over would then have their choice of a G5, and you guys are left hoping the TV network doesn't try to horse trade to ensure a MAC team with more viewers doesn't take the spot.

If things hold as projected, I think your best shot as a league at a non tied bowl would be taking the likely vacant AAC spot against the Sun Belt in the Cure bowl. Either that or the Independence Bowl comes open and actually honors their backup agreement with you guys, which I am honestly not sure about.
10-16-2017 01:41 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: Still 10 with Bowl Eligibility
Here's an update given this past weekend's results. Odd number of games lends to breaking some projections in half.

Projected Final Regular Season Records:

1.) Marshall (6-1): projected wins 4; Regular Season 10-2
2.) USM (5-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 8-4
3.) FL Atlantic (4-3): projected wins 3.5; Regular Season 7.5-4.5
4.) WKU (5-2): projected wins 2.5; Regular Season 7.5-4.5
5.) UTSA (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-4 (only 11 games)
6.) La Tech (3-4): projected wins 4; Regular Season 7-5
7.) UNT (4-3): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5
8.) FIU (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5 (home to UMass)
9.) UAB (4-3): projected wins 2; Regular Season 6-6
10.) MTSU (3-5): projected wins 3; Regular Season 6-6
11.) ODU (2-5): projected wins 3; Regular Season 5-7
12.) Rice (1-6): projected wins 0; Regular Season 1-11
13.) Charlotte (1-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 1-11
14.) UTEP (0-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 0-12
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2017 02:48 PM by FIUFan.)
10-23-2017 02:36 PM
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goliath74 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
(10-23-2017 02:36 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  Here's an update given this past weekend's results. Odd number of games lends to breaking some projections in half.

Projected Final Regular Season Records:

1.) Marshall (6-1): projected wins 4; Regular Season 10-2
2.) USM (5-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 8-4
3.) FL Atlantic (4-3): projected wins 3.5; Regular Season 7.5-4.5
4.) WKU (5-2): projected wins 2.5; Regular Season 7.5-4.5
5.) UTSA (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-4 (only 11 games)
6.) La Tech (3-4): projected wins 4; Regular Season 7-5
7.) UNT (4-3): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5
8.) FIU (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5 (home to UMass)
9.) UAB (4-3): projected wins 2; Regular Season 6-6
10.) MTSU (3-4): projected wins 3; Regular Season 6-6
11.) ODU (2-5): projected wins 3; Regular Season 5-7
12.) Rice (1-6): projected wins 0; Regular Season 1-11
13.) Charlotte (1-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 1-11
14.) UTEP (0-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 0-12
This looks like 10 bowl-eligible teams. I like that.

Late edit: I assume this does not include a conference championship game, right?
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2017 02:39 PM by goliath74.)
10-23-2017 02:39 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
(10-23-2017 02:39 PM)goliath74 Wrote:  
(10-23-2017 02:36 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  Here's an update given this past weekend's results. Odd number of games lends to breaking some projections in half.

Projected Final Regular Season Records:

1.) Marshall (6-1): projected wins 4; Regular Season 10-2
2.) USM (5-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 8-4
3.) FL Atlantic (4-3): projected wins 3.5; Regular Season 7.5-4.5
4.) WKU (5-2): projected wins 2.5; Regular Season 7.5-4.5
5.) UTSA (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-4 (only 11 games)
6.) La Tech (3-4): projected wins 4; Regular Season 7-5
7.) UNT (4-3): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5
8.) FIU (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5 (home to UMass)
9.) UAB (4-3): projected wins 2; Regular Season 6-6
10.) MTSU (3-4): projected wins 3; Regular Season 6-6
11.) ODU (2-5): projected wins 3; Regular Season 5-7
12.) Rice (1-6): projected wins 0; Regular Season 1-11
13.) Charlotte (1-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 1-11
14.) UTEP (0-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 0-12
This looks like 10 bowl-eligible teams. I like that.

Late edit: I assume this does not include a conference championship game, right?

Correct.
10-23-2017 02:41 PM
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Luckyshot Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
(10-23-2017 02:36 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  Here's an update given this past weekend's results. Odd number of games lends to breaking some projections in half.

Projected Final Regular Season Records:

1.) Marshall (6-1): projected wins 4; Regular Season 10-2
2.) USM (5-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 8-4
3.) FL Atlantic (4-3): projected wins 3.5; Regular Season 7.5-4.5
4.) WKU (5-2): projected wins 2.5; Regular Season 7.5-4.5
5.) UTSA (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-4 (only 11 games)
6.) La Tech (3-4): projected wins 4; Regular Season 7-5
7.) UNT (4-3): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5
8.) FIU (4-2): projected wins 3; Regular Season 7-5 (home to UMass)
9.) UAB (4-3): projected wins 2; Regular Season 6-6
10.) MTSU (3-5): projected wins 3; Regular Season 6-6
11.) ODU (2-5): projected wins 3; Regular Season 5-7
12.) Rice (1-6): projected wins 0; Regular Season 1-11
13.) Charlotte (1-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 1-11
14.) UTEP (0-7): projected wins 0; Regular Season 0-12

Our projected losses are, I'm sure, to Marshall and UT. UT looks very beatable. Marshall is tough, but if we ever played a complete game we could beat them as well. That would make for a rematch of the last game of the season in the Champ game if we did each win our divisions though.
10-23-2017 05:23 PM
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Ole Blue Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
Please stop projecting us at 6-6. That would be horrible. It gives Stockstill a chance to get a contract extension.
10-23-2017 05:26 PM
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EagNBran Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
Don’t know why people are predicting us over UNT when they’ve got head to head currently.
10-23-2017 05:36 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
(10-23-2017 05:26 PM)Ole Blue Wrote:  Please stop projecting us at 6-6. That would be horrible. It gives Stockstill a chance to get a contract extension.

We'll switch places with you. Wilder's not going anywhere, our QB can use as many games this season as he can get and I'd love to watch Ray Lawry run one more game.
10-23-2017 06:40 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #29
Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
(10-15-2017 10:48 AM)FIUFan Wrote:  Given (3) extraordinarily weak teams this year
One of which was so weak that they couldn’t even overcome a game winning goal line stand against F’in Eye You

Now that is what I call extraordinarily weak.
10-23-2017 07:14 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
(10-23-2017 07:14 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(10-15-2017 10:48 AM)FIUFan Wrote:  Given (3) extraordinarily weak teams this year
One of which was so weak that they couldn’t even overcome a game winning goal line stand against F’in Eye You

Now that is what I call extraordinarily weak.

yep, pretty f'n weak.
10-24-2017 01:45 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Projected Regular Season Records: We're heading for a Train Wreck
(10-23-2017 05:26 PM)Ole Blue Wrote:  Please stop projecting us at 6-6. That would be horrible. It gives Stockstill a chance to get a contract extension.

Is this a contract year for him? If so, I'd be doubly shocked if he were to burn a possible medical red-shirt on Brent this year. That's a lot of possible leverage he might have come negotiation time.
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2017 01:58 PM by FIUFan.)
10-24-2017 01:49 PM
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