http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

It's not interesting. Sagarin has always and consistently ranked the SEC lower. It's called programming bias. It even happened most years when we took home crystal footballs. This year's ranking is lower than usual. That's about it.

The rankings are junk but I have no problem saying the SEC is down this year.

There is UA, and then everybody else.

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

How worthwhile is Sagarin? Oklahoma 31 Iowa State 38! That's why we play them. That's why computer rankings of any kind are trash and only serve as message board fodder.

Looks like the B12 is going to cannibalize itself again. It's a bad loss that will pretty much torpedo the Sooners unless all of the top programs suffer a bad loss too. I guess the B12 banner carrier now wears purple.

Massey's composite of 93 different rankings (mean ranking of FBS teams from 1-130) has it

ACC 42.39
Pac-12 42.62
Big Ten 42.77
SEC 44.43
Big 12 48.06

AAC 64.62
MWC 81.67
MAC 89.94
CUSA 95.33
SBC 101.95

When you look at the 93 different rankings in Massey's composite, you see that they're all over the place. There's one that has Clemson ranked 10th, one that has Oklahoma 29th, one that has Washington State #1 and another that has them #41.

It looks like the rankings of each conference are most dependent on the teams after the conference's top 3. How good are the conference's 4th-8th teams, and how much does the very bottom drag down the conference's average.

No love for Georgia?

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

Good analysis JR, and I agree it could likely go down that way. If so, then we'll likely get to see Penn St show Clemson what tough football looks like in the semi-final. Would've beat Clemson last year. Granted, they lost to USC last year in the bowl game .... but that's because USC would've beat Clemson too.

And you just gave the Big 12 the kiss of death. That is exactly what will happen. Because the Big 12 CCG is cursed. They know it too, that's why they got rid of it in the first place. It will be TCU undefeated vs OSU 1-loss (beats OU in Bedlem) ... and OSU will win the game, knocking the Big 12 out of the CFP.

(10-08-2017 09:08 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Good analysis JR, and I agree it could likely go down that way. If so, then we'll likely get to see Penn St show Clemson what tough football looks like in the semi-final. Would've beat Clemson last year. Granted, they lost to USC last year in the bowl game .... but that's because USC would've beat Clemson too.

And you just gave the Big 12 the kiss of death. That is exactly what will happen. Because the Big 12 CCG is cursed. They know it too, that's why they got rid of it in the first place. It will be TCU undefeated vs OSU 1-loss (beats OU in Bedlem) ... and OSU will win the game, knocking the Big 12 out of the CFP.

I'm always sad when I see people smoking crack on Sunday morning.

(10-08-2017 01:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

As far as OU, I could have said the same thing about Ohio St. 3 years ago with their bad loss. Yet they beat out TCU whose only loss was to #6 Baylor in a wild game.

Ohio St. had a big loss at home to OU, yet you include them as a factor, but not OU.

The committee is actually worse than the polls in recency bias and the halo effect (both overweighting one good win and looking at the name on the jersey). They much more rely on their eyeball test. Now maybe the new committee will be a little better than previous ones, but they still have a number of the same players.

(10-08-2017 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

As far as OU, I could have said the same thing about Ohio St. 3 years ago with their bad loss. Yet they beat out TCU whose only loss was to #6 Baylor in a wild game.

Ohio St. had a big loss at home to OU, yet you include them as a factor, but not OU.

The committee is actually worse than the polls in recency bias and the halo effect (both overweighting one good win and looking at the name on the jersey). They much more rely on their eyeball test. Now maybe the new committee will be a little better than previous ones, but they still have a number of the same players.

I don't even consider the committee. They are there simply to cover the bases where the markets are concerned. Their soul purpose is merely to justify the selections and they have been year to year all over the place with their reasoning.

I left Oklahoma out because they had a bad win at Baylor coupled with this loss. I can easily see them losing again. And, their defense is more than suspect. And if the ultimate champion is T.C.U. and they aren't perfect that one loss will be all the excuse the committee needs, especially with their OOC win over Arkansas losing major luster in the recent weeks. I only included Ohio State because it is very possible that they could win their division. They are after all still unbeaten in the Big 10.

Washington is looking a bit more complete than last year. And while Alabama and Clemson both look very strong, I don't think either is stronger than they were last year, except on defense and that is what could ultimately put them back into the CFP.

We'll see what happens. I only wish we could move to a champs only model so that the kids didn't have to rely on the "committee". Waiting upon the central committee's decision somehow just seems so very communist.

(10-08-2017 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

As far as OU, I could have said the same thing about Ohio St. 3 years ago with their bad loss. Yet they beat out TCU whose only loss was to #6 Baylor in a wild game.

Ohio St. had a big loss at home to OU, yet you include them as a factor, but not OU.

The committee is actually worse than the polls in recency bias and the halo effect (both overweighting one good win and looking at the name on the jersey). They much more rely on their eyeball test. Now maybe the new committee will be a little better than previous ones, but they still have a number of the same players.

The only things we know for sure are (1) No team with 2 or more losses has been selected, and that will probably continue to hold true as long as there are at least 4 P5 teams with fewer than 2 losses at the end; and (2) the committee will bend or break any of its own rules or tendencies, including (1), if it really wants to put a "name" program like Ohio State into the playoff.

(10-08-2017 11:13 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

As far as OU, I could have said the same thing about Ohio St. 3 years ago with their bad loss. Yet they beat out TCU whose only loss was to #6 Baylor in a wild game.

Ohio St. had a big loss at home to OU, yet you include them as a factor, but not OU.

The committee is actually worse than the polls in recency bias and the halo effect (both overweighting one good win and looking at the name on the jersey). They much more rely on their eyeball test. Now maybe the new committee will be a little better than previous ones, but they still have a number of the same players.

I don't even consider the committee. They are there simply to cover the bases where the markets are concerned. Their soul purpose is merely to justify the selections and they have been year to year all over the place with their reasoning.

I left Oklahoma out because they had a bad win at Baylor coupled with this loss. I can easily see them losing again. And, their defense is more than suspect. And if the ultimate champion is T.C.U. and they aren't perfect that one loss will be all the excuse the committee needs, especially with their OOC win over Arkansas losing major luster in the recent weeks. I only included Ohio State because it is very possible that they could win their division. They are after all still unbeaten in the Big 10.

Washington is looking a bit more complete than last year. And while Alabama and Clemson both look very strong, I don't think either is stronger than they were last year, except on defense and that is what could ultimately put them back into the CFP.

We'll see what happens. I only wish we could move to a champs only model so that the kids didn't have to rely on the "committee". Waiting upon the central committee's decision somehow just seems so very communist.

We're going to 8 with 5 autobids. But it might take the SEC or Big 10 to be left out first. Big 10 champ did get left out last year.

Only 3 SEC teams ranked in the coaches poll. When was the last time that happened?

(10-08-2017 01:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 11:13 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

As far as OU, I could have said the same thing about Ohio St. 3 years ago with their bad loss. Yet they beat out TCU whose only loss was to #6 Baylor in a wild game.

Ohio St. had a big loss at home to OU, yet you include them as a factor, but not OU.

The committee is actually worse than the polls in recency bias and the halo effect (both overweighting one good win and looking at the name on the jersey). They much more rely on their eyeball test. Now maybe the new committee will be a little better than previous ones, but they still have a number of the same players.

I don't even consider the committee. They are there simply to cover the bases where the markets are concerned. Their soul purpose is merely to justify the selections and they have been year to year all over the place with their reasoning.

I left Oklahoma out because they had a bad win at Baylor coupled with this loss. I can easily see them losing again. And, their defense is more than suspect. And if the ultimate champion is T.C.U. and they aren't perfect that one loss will be all the excuse the committee needs, especially with their OOC win over Arkansas losing major luster in the recent weeks. I only included Ohio State because it is very possible that they could win their division. They are after all still unbeaten in the Big 10.

Washington is looking a bit more complete than last year. And while Alabama and Clemson both look very strong, I don't think either is stronger than they were last year, except on defense and that is what could ultimately put them back into the CFP.

We'll see what happens. I only wish we could move to a champs only model so that the kids didn't have to rely on the "committee". Waiting upon the central committee's decision somehow just seems so very communist.

We're going to 8 with 5 autobids. But it might take the SEC or Big 10 to be left out first. Big 10 champ did get left out last year.

Are you predicting that the Big 12 survives intact?

(10-08-2017 01:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 11:13 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

As far as OU, I could have said the same thing about Ohio St. 3 years ago with their bad loss. Yet they beat out TCU whose only loss was to #6 Baylor in a wild game.

Ohio St. had a big loss at home to OU, yet you include them as a factor, but not OU.

The committee is actually worse than the polls in recency bias and the halo effect (both overweighting one good win and looking at the name on the jersey). They much more rely on their eyeball test. Now maybe the new committee will be a little better than previous ones, but they still have a number of the same players.

I don't even consider the committee. They are there simply to cover the bases where the markets are concerned. Their soul purpose is merely to justify the selections and they have been year to year all over the place with their reasoning.

I left Oklahoma out because they had a bad win at Baylor coupled with this loss. I can easily see them losing again. And, their defense is more than suspect. And if the ultimate champion is T.C.U. and they aren't perfect that one loss will be all the excuse the committee needs, especially with their OOC win over Arkansas losing major luster in the recent weeks. I only included Ohio State because it is very possible that they could win their division. They are after all still unbeaten in the Big 10.

Washington is looking a bit more complete than last year. And while Alabama and Clemson both look very strong, I don't think either is stronger than they were last year, except on defense and that is what could ultimately put them back into the CFP.

We'll see what happens. I only wish we could move to a champs only model so that the kids didn't have to rely on the "committee". Waiting upon the central committee's decision somehow just seems so very communist.

We're going to 8 with 5 autobids. But it might take the SEC or Big 10 to be left out first. Big 10 champ did get left out last year.

Which century, this one or next?

It took decades and decades just to get a system in place just to try to make sure the #1 and #2 teams were matched up in a bowl game at the end of the year. Too almost a decade after the start of that first system to get all the major confs and bowls loaded in. Then took another 14 years to go from two teams in the championship to a four team bracket.

Eight teams ain't coming for a looooooong time, if ever.

(10-08-2017 02:40 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 11:13 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

As far as OU, I could have said the same thing about Ohio St. 3 years ago with their bad loss. Yet they beat out TCU whose only loss was to #6 Baylor in a wild game.

Ohio St. had a big loss at home to OU, yet you include them as a factor, but not OU.

The committee is actually worse than the polls in recency bias and the halo effect (both overweighting one good win and looking at the name on the jersey). They much more rely on their eyeball test. Now maybe the new committee will be a little better than previous ones, but they still have a number of the same players.

I don't even consider the committee. They are there simply to cover the bases where the markets are concerned. Their soul purpose is merely to justify the selections and they have been year to year all over the place with their reasoning.

I left Oklahoma out because they had a bad win at Baylor coupled with this loss. I can easily see them losing again. And, their defense is more than suspect. And if the ultimate champion is T.C.U. and they aren't perfect that one loss will be all the excuse the committee needs, especially with their OOC win over Arkansas losing major luster in the recent weeks. I only included Ohio State because it is very possible that they could win their division. They are after all still unbeaten in the Big 10.

Washington is looking a bit more complete than last year. And while Alabama and Clemson both look very strong, I don't think either is stronger than they were last year, except on defense and that is what could ultimately put them back into the CFP.

We'll see what happens. I only wish we could move to a champs only model so that the kids didn't have to rely on the "committee". Waiting upon the central committee's decision somehow just seems so very communist.

We're going to 8 with 5 autobids. But it might take the SEC or Big 10 to be left out first. Big 10 champ did get left out last year.

Which century, this one or next?

It took decades and decades just to get a system in place just to try to make sure the #1 and #2 teams were matched up in a bowl game at the end of the year. Too almost a decade after the start of that first system to get all the major confs and bowls loaded in. Then took another 14 years to go from two teams in the championship to a four team bracket.

Eight teams ain't coming for a looooooong time, if ever.

The proverbial camel has stuck his nose in the tent. 2026 at the latest.

(10-08-2017 01:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 11:13 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

As far as OU, I could have said the same thing about Ohio St. 3 years ago with their bad loss. Yet they beat out TCU whose only loss was to #6 Baylor in a wild game.

Ohio St. had a big loss at home to OU, yet you include them as a factor, but not OU.

The committee is actually worse than the polls in recency bias and the halo effect (both overweighting one good win and looking at the name on the jersey). They much more rely on their eyeball test. Now maybe the new committee will be a little better than previous ones, but they still have a number of the same players.

I don't even consider the committee. They are there simply to cover the bases where the markets are concerned. Their soul purpose is merely to justify the selections and they have been year to year all over the place with their reasoning.

I left Oklahoma out because they had a bad win at Baylor coupled with this loss. I can easily see them losing again. And, their defense is more than suspect. And if the ultimate champion is T.C.U. and they aren't perfect that one loss will be all the excuse the committee needs, especially with their OOC win over Arkansas losing major luster in the recent weeks. I only included Ohio State because it is very possible that they could win their division. They are after all still unbeaten in the Big 10.

Washington is looking a bit more complete than last year. And while Alabama and Clemson both look very strong, I don't think either is stronger than they were last year, except on defense and that is what could ultimately put them back into the CFP.

We'll see what happens. I only wish we could move to a champs only model so that the kids didn't have to rely on the "committee". Waiting upon the central committee's decision somehow just seems so very communist.

We're going to 8 with 5 autobids. But it might take the SEC or Big 10 to be left out first. Big 10 champ did get left out last year.

Are you predicting that the Big 12 survives intact?

3rd best conference distributions, close 3rd on average school revenues, 3rd in fan support, 2nd in football strength over the last dozen years, 3rd or at worst a very close 4th in TV viewership. Maybe the question should be whether the Pac 12 and ACC survive intact?

(10-08-2017 01:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  Only 3 SEC teams ranked in the coaches poll. When was the last time that happened?

8 years to answer my own question. Saw it on an msnsports link.

(10-08-2017 01:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 11:13 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 01:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.

1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84

Let's readdress this after today's games.

The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).

Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.

The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.

SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.

So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.

The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.

And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.

As far as OU, I could have said the same thing about Ohio St. 3 years ago with their bad loss. Yet they beat out TCU whose only loss was to #6 Baylor in a wild game.

Ohio St. had a big loss at home to OU, yet you include them as a factor, but not OU.

The committee is actually worse than the polls in recency bias and the halo effect (both overweighting one good win and looking at the name on the jersey). They much more rely on their eyeball test. Now maybe the new committee will be a little better than previous ones, but they still have a number of the same players.

I don't even consider the committee. They are there simply to cover the bases where the markets are concerned. Their soul purpose is merely to justify the selections and they have been year to year all over the place with their reasoning.

I left Oklahoma out because they had a bad win at Baylor coupled with this loss. I can easily see them losing again. And, their defense is more than suspect. And if the ultimate champion is T.C.U. and they aren't perfect that one loss will be all the excuse the committee needs, especially with their OOC win over Arkansas losing major luster in the recent weeks. I only included Ohio State because it is very possible that they could win their division. They are after all still unbeaten in the Big 10.

Washington is looking a bit more complete than last year. And while Alabama and Clemson both look very strong, I don't think either is stronger than they were last year, except on defense and that is what could ultimately put them back into the CFP.

We'll see what happens. I only wish we could move to a champs only model so that the kids didn't have to rely on the "committee". Waiting upon the central committee's decision somehow just seems so very communist.

We're going to 8 with 5 autobids. But it might take the SEC or Big 10 to be left out first. Big 10 champ did get left out last year.

It will never happen if the conferences have any sense of business. It's better that they all extend their internal playoffs before they agree to that arrangement where the network doles out a portion of the money only. We'll move to a P4 before we expand the playoffs. And we'll do so because it is the more profitable and practical solution.