RE: 2017 MAC Football Pick 'Em -- Week 4
Bold is my pick; underline is winner against the spread:
Kent State @ #19 Louisville (-44)
*Kent State will surely lose, and Louisville will want to take some aggression out on Kent after getting Thumped by Clemson... but Louisville isn't SO great as originally thought & ranked coming into the season, and Kent State has a D. Louisville's non-suffocating D will allow Kent's anemic O to at least eat up enough clock and score 3-10 points, especially in garbage minutes. Louisville wins by 35.
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan (-2.5)
*Ohio's always a decent mid-major at least. EMU is rarely decent. But with their Brokeback Mountain QB and a good D -- they're a decent team now, and better than Ohio. This could go either way, but I see EMU winning by 3-10pts.
Toledo @ Miami-FL (-13.5)
*Toledo can win this game. Miami's been waiting things out, not a ton of practices, kinda off-key. And they know that, which is why Miami is not going to take this as "some MAC team", as this team beat Arkansas last year, and is almost always an upper-G5 team. They know they'll be tested... but still off-key. Toledo smells blood, but will fall short -- but beat the spread in a game that ends kinda tight, between 6-13 pts.
Miami-OH @ Central Michigan (-2)
*Toughest one to call. Miami "should" beat them, but at the same time, they got a huge mindset rocking after that Cinci game. Shane Morris could have a horrible day and Miami could beat them of course. But, this is in CMU territory, and going home, they want to bounce back from letting the Syracuse game slip away so much. CMU wins by a TD, as a Miami comeback falls just a wee bit short.
Akron @ Troy (-15.5)
*Akron had their sights set higher, going toe to toe with Iowa State... in the first half, at home... after Iowa State was getting over a demoralizing OT loss to Iowa the week before. Now they're on the road to Troy who's a good mid-major, comparable to Iowa State. Although probably not Quite as good as Iowa State, it's in their home field, and they'll win by 17-24.
Wagner @ Western Michigan
*Wagner is not a winning FCS program. WMU wants to continue what it did in the 4th quarter against Idaho, against Wagner. 1st Quarter won't seem much like it, but in the mid-2nd quarter, finally it'll look like WMU has a solid passing & running game combined (thanks D1AA!). WMU rolls by not much more than 24, thanks to subs filling in much of the 4th quarter.
Fla-Atlantic @ Buffalo (-3)
*Seen by Vegas as an even-steven game, giving Buffalo a 3pt edge since it's in their house... I can't argue too much on that. However, I think Buffalo's good D with FLA-Atlantic on the road all the way up north, it makes Buffalo win it out by a TD, always keeping them at arms-length.
BGSU @ Middle Tennessee (-7)
*Pt spread dropped from 10.5 opening. MTSU's got some QB issues? Don't worry, BGSU has issues on offense in all directions. BGSU keeps it a little close at certain points, but doesn't have the firepower to make it a barn-burner down the line. MTSU wins by 14.
Ball State @ Western Kentucky (-11)
*I could certainly be wrong on this. This is as tough as Miami @ CMU, and Ohio @ EMU. Ball State went down to the wire @Illinois beating them much of the game, and Illinois solidly beat W Kentucky beating them about the whole game. BSU has a good QB + good RB. They were solid in beating Alabama-Birm by 20, but how much can we really draw off that? Then an unimpressive win over a bad D1AA Tennessee Tech team. Western Kentucky has a new coach and is getting things situated -- but they were favored in their first 3 games, lost 2 of them, and of the their sole win, beat a D1AA in-state team by less than half the spread. Yikes. WKU is coming off a heartbreaking loss at home to LA-Tech. Do they take out their frustrations, or are they just frustrated and BSU wins? WKU has been good, but their coach went to Purdue who is like a brand new team instantly over there with him. I have to say BSU eeks it out in a barn-burner, as they keep telling themselves they're in Bowling Green Ohio, not Kentucky.
*Will Edit to adjust spreads until Sat
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2017 08:12 PM by toddjnsn.)
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2017 MAC Football Pick 'Em -- Week 4
