Oh goody.

Harv and Irm weren't enough just yet, there's others a-brewin out there.

Seems Jose will stay offshore and has weakened to a Cat 1. So probably some storm surge and beach erosion, but nothing too significant.

But, we now have Maria churning away, has doubled in strength in the last 24 hrs and may well approach Cat 4 before it smacks the Caribbean islands again.

PR may get a head-on collision. Then there's a pretty significant High Pressure system in the middle of the Atlantic that may push the storm right into the East Coast.

No thanks!

I suspect 2017 will go down as the worst Atlantic hurricane season ever recorded. I'll try to steer clear from the climate change argument but honestly I don't see how seasons in the future won't be bad unless we can figure out ways to artificially create weather barriers for the storms to increase in size and intensity. Which would I guess mean figuring out ways to cool off the ocean waters, or create pockets of dry air and wind shear?

(09-18-2017 03:38 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I suspect 2017 will go down as the worst Atlantic hurricane season ever recorded. I'll try to steer clear from the climate change argument but honestly I don't see how seasons in the future won't be bad unless we can figure out ways to artificially create weather barriers for the storms to increase in size and intensity. Which would I guess mean figuring out ways to cool off the ocean waters, or create pockets of dry air and wind shear?

Barring Maria plowing into downtown Miami as a Cat 5, this season will not go down as the worst on record. 2005 featured Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, ran out of names, and continued on with Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta.

Cat 5s
Emily
Katrina
Rita
Wilma

Cat 4s
Dennis

Cat 3s
Maria
Beta

Not even close.

I think you can get a pretty good idea by simply remembering how the storms are named--alphabetically. A year that gets past Z is probably worse than a year that gets to M. There is still time left this year, and we will see how far we get. But it's still a pretty good mnemonic.

Okay 2nd worst? Probably 2nd most expensive for sure.

I guess in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), the 2017 season is now in the top 20 although it should go much higher once Maria and Jose are finished.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulate...one_energy

We've had 7 named hurricanes and 6 other tropical storms thus far. In terms of numbers that's not near the top but there is still almost 2 months to go in the hurricane season.

(09-18-2017 04:09 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Okay 2nd worst? Probably 2nd most expensive for sure.

But expensive is more of a random variable. Harvey was so expensive because a high pressure over west Texas blocked its advance and caused it to stop and dump water along the coast for several days. That wasn't really a function of the hurricane itself. And if the place it had done so had been some essentially uninhabited stretch of the Mexican coastline, the damage would have been far less. There really was not that much wind damage from Harvey.

And the stream of storms up the north side of the Caribbean islands to Florida is also high on damage because where they are hitting is highly developed and populated.

(09-18-2017 03:38 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I suspect 2017 will go down as the worst Atlantic hurricane season ever recorded. I'll try to steer clear from the climate change argument but honestly I don't see how seasons in the future won't be bad unless we can figure out ways to artificially create weather barriers for the storms to increase in size and intensity. Which would I guess mean figuring out ways to cool off the ocean waters, or create pockets of dry air and wind shear?

Well, we've got a looooong way to go to even sniff 2005. That year had 28 total storms, and I think 15 became hurricanes. Yeb! Down there in Fl was swatting away one storm after another all season it seemed like.

And we had one, Wilma, that approached Irma in intensity, not to even mention Katrina of course.

(09-18-2017 03:47 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(09-18-2017 03:38 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I suspect 2017 will go down as the worst Atlantic hurricane season ever recorded. I'll try to steer clear from the climate change argument but honestly I don't see how seasons in the future won't be bad unless we can figure out ways to artificially create weather barriers for the storms to increase in size and intensity. Which would I guess mean figuring out ways to cool off the ocean waters, or create pockets of dry air and wind shear?

Barring Maria plowing into downtown Miami as a Cat 5, this season will not go down as the worst on record. 2005 featured Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, ran out of names, and continued on with Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta.

Cat 5s
Emily
Katrina
Rita
Wilma

Cat 4s
Dennis

Cat 3s
Maria
Beta

Not even close.

Ah. Shoulda kept reading. What he said. ^^^.

Maria is poised to become only the 4th or 5th cat 4 or 5 hurricane to hit Puerto Rico ever (and Hugo only brushed it in 1989). The last serious cat 4 or 5 to hit was back in 1932.

I kind of wonder if any Caribbean island will be spared this season. I guess so far Jamaica, Cayman Islands and the countries south of there have escaped.

Let's wait another 50 days to see what the final tally of 2017 is. I am predicting it will be top 5 in ACE for sure, and wouldn't be surprised to see it end up second.

(09-18-2017 04:40 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Maria is poised to become only the 4th or 5th cat 4 or 5 hurricane to hit Puerto Rico ever (and Hugo only brushed it in 1989). The last serious cat 4 or 5 to hit was back in 1932.

I kind of wonder if any Caribbean island will be spared this season. I guess so far Jamaica, Cayman Islands and the countries south of there have escaped.

Let's wait another 50 days to see what the final tally of 2017 is. I am predicting it will be top 5 in ACE for sure, and wouldn't be surprised to see it end up second.

I thought Irma gave them a good whooping(?). I know it stayed north a bit, was it not considered "hitting" PR?

don't feel like looking.

First storm comes and a pipeline shuts down for a week. Gas prices go up $ .50. The pipeline has been open over a week now. Gas prices drop $ .05. Why should I be enjoying this market thing again?

No Puerto Rico got spared for the most part from Irma - it stayed north of them so they were on the clean side. But they were under the gun for awhile and got lucky. Maria is supposed to go right through the middle of the country.

(09-18-2017 05:02 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  First storm comes and a pipeline shuts down for a week. Gas prices go up $ .50. The pipeline has been open over a week now. Gas prices drop $ .05. Why should I be enjoying this market thing again?

what would you prefer? State mandated prices and price controls?

Psssst! There's a place just to the South of us that tried that about 5 years ago. Now they don't have toilet paper or food...

(09-18-2017 05:05 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  No Puerto Rico got spared for the most part from Irma - it stayed north of them so they were on the clean side. But they were under the gun for awhile and got lucky. Maria is supposed to go right through the middle of the country.

Ok, thanks. I thought I'd seen it give them a pretty good smack, but guess I tuned out for that day or two...

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/09/hurrica...verywhere/

(09-18-2017 03:38 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I suspect 2017 will go down as the worst Atlantic hurricane season ever recorded. I'll try to steer clear from the climate change argument but honestly I don't see how seasons in the future won't be bad unless we can figure out ways to artificially create weather barriers for the storms to increase in size and intensity. Which would I guess mean figuring out ways to cool off the ocean waters, or create pockets of dry air and wind shear?

Or we could open our eyes to whats really going on.


Luke 21:25
And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring;

Maria is now Cat 5 (first season with multiple Cat 5's in same year since 2007) and headed straight for Dominica with 160 MPH winds. Dominica's population is 68K or so. Since this storm has only been a named storm for less than 3 days, they haven't had much time to prepare. I don't mind praying for those people.

A direct hit on Dominica might help out Puerto Rico some. Dominica is pretty mountainous.

We were overdue for a bad storm year as it has been 12 years since major storms have hit here, the last major one Katrina,


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(09-18-2017 05:02 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  First storm comes and a pipeline shuts down for a week. Gas prices go up $ .50. The pipeline has been open over a week now. Gas prices drop $ .05. Why should I be enjoying this market thing again?

Because the gas in the pumps/underground tanks was paid for at higher prices so the retail price stays high. But yeah, I'm also pretty sure the prices stay up a little longer than they technically should.

(09-19-2017 07:54 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-18-2017 05:02 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  First storm comes and a pipeline shuts down for a week. Gas prices go up $ .50. The pipeline has been open over a week now. Gas prices drop $ .05. Why should I be enjoying this market thing again?

Because the gas in the pumps/underground tanks was paid for at higher prices so the retail price stays high. But yeah, I'm also pretty sure the prices stay up a little longer than they technically should.

Our regular prices are almost back to where they were before Harvey, though premium is coming down much more slowly. Unfortunately, I use premium!