(09-18-2017 01:42 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(09-18-2017 01:26 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  ? I never said the coaches poll overides or is even part of the BCS poll. That said, the 2 polls don't tend to be all that different.

But if that is because the coaches poll starts moving toward the committee rankings once they start to be released, then the CFP ranking would remain as the independent factor.

The biggest difference in the polls for the G5's is that the selection committee generally rates all G5's lower than the polls. That said---they all still tend to agree on the order the G5 are ranked in, the Committee just usually has them stacked further back in the ratings.

(09-17-2017 05:11 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Right now, just my opinion. The problem again for USF, they don't play that many good teams in the AAC, Houston and possibly UCF. I actually think Houston has a better team than USF, if it was UH home game, I think you would win. I would not be surprised if you beat USF at their place. Right now, USF should be huge Houston fans, you all are probably the only true quality opponent that they have left on their schedule. Just don't see CFP giving them benefit of the doubt with their schedule.

Bottom line is Memphis and USF if the ran the gauntlet would face each other in champ game. SD ST wont have that.

The following are the only polls tracked by the Massey Composite that got all four playoff teams right every year AND identified the top-ranked G5 conference champ correctly.

Former BCS Polls
Anderson
Billingsley
Colley Matrix
USA Today Coaches Poll

Others
Hatch
Laz Index
Phelan Power
MvG Sports
Welch

Right now, SDSU (beat #19 Stanford) and Memphis (beat #25 UCLA) have the 2 best G5 wins. Since UCLA and Stanford play this week, it won't take long to figure out which was the better win.

(09-18-2017 06:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Right now, SDSU (beat #19 Stanford) and Memphis (beat #25 UCLA) have the 2 best G5 wins. Since UCLA and Stanford play this week, it won't take long to figure out which was the better win.

Should be interesting. Didn't know they play this weekend.

(09-18-2017 05:49 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(09-17-2017 05:11 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Right now, just my opinion. The problem again for USF, they don't play that many good teams in the AAC, Houston and possibly UCF. I actually think Houston has a better team than USF, if it was UH home game, I think you would win. I would not be surprised if you beat USF at their place. Right now, USF should be huge Houston fans, you all are probably the only true quality opponent that they have left on their schedule. Just don't see CFP giving them benefit of the doubt with their schedule.

Bottom line is Memphis and USF if the ran the gauntlet would face each other in champ game. SD ST wont have that.

Gauntlet?

4 the AAC
4 teams R N the mix
4 a G5 Golden Ticket

Tuffest Test Left:

Houston--could B “set” by end of Oct.
(SMU, @ Tulsa, then Memphis & @ USF back 2 back n mid Oct)

Memphis
(@ UCF, @ Houston, @ Tulsa (Fri night), SMU @ home)

USF
(Cinn, Houston, Tulsa, @ home & end of season @ UCF)

UCF
(Memphis & UCF @ home, @ Cinn & @ SMU)

We'll know a lot more after week 13.

Also, and seriously, don't discount UTSA. The Roadrunners return a ton of talent from last year and have a stout defense. It was really a shame that the Houston/UTSA game was canceled as it would have told us a lot.

Most critical item on the job qualification is conference champion. There are going to be schools with nice resumes who never enter the real discussion because they fail that qualification.

There is a reason why the first CFP rankings don't come out for several more weeks. Way too early.

Most resumes only have 3 games for review and comparison. Some only have 2 games. You need to give everyone the opportunity to play most of the OOC schedules before you can compare. In week 4 alone, Toledo plays Miami, Houston-Texas Tech, Boise-Virginia, etc.

Here is one other scenario if both USF and/or SDSU and/or Memphis go undefeated (and presumably ranked in the top 10-12). There are 5 at large NY6 spots this year. This is the year with the most at large spots. 2 so called G5 teams could go if both are highly ranked. This happened under the old BCS system once with TCU and Boise, and unlike the old system, if both teams are highly enough ranked, they HAVE to go (can't be passed up for lower ranked teams).

Stanford is apparently vastly overrated.

Lost to SDSU.

Got smoked by USC who struggled to beat a mediocre Texas team and struggled to beat a MAC team too.

USC appears vastly overrated as well. I look for Washington to repeat in the Pac 12.

Lets not forget that Boise State twiced leap frog 2 teams to get the better bowl games since they are a known quantity team to compete. They went ahead of a MAC team and took a spot away from a 12-1 Marshall.

(09-18-2017 10:53 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Lets not forget that Boise State twiced leap frog 2 teams to get the better bowl games since they are a known quantity team to compete. They went ahead of a MAC team and took a spot away from a 12-1 Marshall.

Boise St always has the ability to leapfrog by name alone. Its inherently unfair, but it is what it is. Same lame excuse P5 schools get for getting better bowl bids. There are seasons where the AAC has 2 schools that should be in NY6 bowls but because of conference affiliation, they won't.

(09-18-2017 10:09 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Stanford is apparently vastly overrated.

Lost to SDSU.

Got smoked by USC who struggled to beat a mediocre Texas team and struggled to beat a MAC team too.

USC appears vastly overrated as well. I look for Washington to repeat in the Pac 12.

I agree,
USC plays in the “easier” PAC 12 division
& they don’t play Washington this year

But there is a Friday night special coming up
@ the end of Sept @ Mike Leech’s WSU Cougar’s
then the next week, Oregon @ home
get by those 2,
USC could coast to the PAC 12 title game

A late Oct game @ Notre Dame
might B the only game left ito stop USU from having
for an undefeated season.
B4 the PAC 12 Championship Game

SDSU has to play @ a solid Air Force team this week
B4 playing NIU (winner @ Nebraska) @ home the next week
Later in Oct, they get Boise @ home

(09-17-2017 03:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  By the way, todays coaches poll has SDSU at #25 and USF at #17. So, even after this weekend, the coaches poll indicates a significant preference for USF.

Yes, the CFP can and has deviated from the polls, but never by that much.

I'm not 100% certain we'd get the Access spot if the decision was made today. Certainly, other G5 like Memphis and SDSU have better wins. But we wouldn't be voted 4th, as the other poster said.

(09-18-2017 09:58 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Here is one other scenario if both USF and/or SDSU and/or Memphis go undefeated (and presumably ranked in the top 10-12). There are 5 at large NY6 spots this year. This is the year with the most at large spots. 2 so called G5 teams could go if both are highly ranked. This happened under the old BCS system once with TCU and Boise, and unlike the old system, if both teams are highly enough ranked, they HAVE to go (can't be passed up for lower ranked teams).

Yes, that could have happened last year, i.e., after Houston beat Louisville, they were ranked in the CFP teens, and had they not lost after that, they could have climbed to #12 or so and gotten an at-large NY6 slot even though they weren't eligible for the reserved G5 slot because they couldn't win the AAC. As you say, the "at-large" slots are determined strictly by CFP ranking, no chance of getting passed over.

Memphis
San Diego State
Houston
USF

in no order

(09-18-2017 10:09 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Stanford is apparently vastly overrated.

Lost to SDSU.

Got smoked by USC who struggled to beat a mediocre Texas team and struggled to beat a MAC team too.

USC appears vastly overrated as well. I look for Washington to repeat in the Pac 12.

Not sure about USC. E.g., recall that Oklahoma has won 11 games in three of the past four years, and yet in those three years, they've lost to Texas twice, and the one time they beat them, it was very close, even though Texas was bad all three years.

You can chalk that up to rivalry, but it's more than that. Texas has top-shelf talent but bad coaching*. What that often translates into is (a) embarrassing losses to teams you wouldn't expect them to lose to, but also (b) spirited, even winning, performances against top-shelf teams. Because they have the talent to go toe-to-toe with anyone.

That's probably what happened at USC. USC will play better teams than Texas this season, but nobody (until the playoffs) with their raw athletic talent. USC, like many top programs with loads of 4/5 star recruits, is used to being able to beat other teams by just having superior athletes, and it is disconcerting to them when they play a team they lack that advantage over.

*I think Herman is a good coach, but he's still getting a feel for this new team.

Guys remember, everyone's opinion is ok. It is just for fun and looking at who is still in the Golden Ticket running. I know it is difficult but can the AAC fans let the chip fall off their shoulders when they aren't the top pick? AAC has three teams that may have a shot. Are you fuming of the over the guys at CBS and ESPN that dropped USF for SDSU? It is a prediction for crying out loud.

Now for the Debbie Downer that will no doubt bring the ire of the G5 fans, no G5 that is not in the top 10 will get a CFP at-large spot. Using the current coaching poll as an example.

Likey - 4 of 6 access spots available - G5 and Left out P5 Champ (Assuming 4 conference champs in CFP. That is not guaranteed if SEC, B12, PAC 10 or B!g champ left out in favor of Non Champ (AKA Ohio St Rule). That would eat another slot, bringing it down 3 or 6 at-large access spots.

1 Alabama(45) 3-0 1504 — CFP Playoff
2 Clemson(15) 3-0 1446 1 — CFP Playofff
3 Oklahoma(1) 3-0 1432 1 — CFP Playoff
4 Penn State 3-0 1306 1 — CFP Playoff
5 USC 3-0 1241 1 CFP Access Slot (Since Rose is gone)
6 Oklahoma State 3-0 1154 3 (CFP Access Slot 1)
7 Washington 3-0 1141 1 (CFP Access Slot 2)
8 Michigan 3-0 1081 1 (Orange vs ACC Team)
9 Wisconsin 3-0 1031 1 (CFP Access 3)
10 Ohio State 2-1 1015 2 (CFP Access 4)