How much longer can The Irish stay independent in football and be factor of importance in college football?

ESPN Article

Another season, another "ND should join a football conference" article. To summarize this article: ND hasn't won a title in many years, but it all comes down to your coach, i.e. Saban at Alabama.

In the most recent annual figures released by the NCAA, Notre Dame reported athletics revenues of slightly more than $134 million. They spent $108 million on athletics that season. You do the math. They reported football revenues of $98 million and expenses of $39 million.

Notre Dame may not be relevant any more, but we are still talking about them every year and everywhere. That is what matters most to Notre Dame. Now, if I were a cynic, I might suspect that an article like this published by ESPN was a not so subtle effort to bring them fully under the ESPN umbrella in the ACC. But as long as ND's needs are being met staying independent on football, I think they'll resist the pressure.

My two take aways from the article were 1) they've made some doubtful coaching hires, but are just a good coaching hire away from returning to the top echelon (duh), and 2) the success of conference television packages has increased everybody else's revenue and exposure so that ND is less unique.

I would observe that ND's biggest "problem," though, may be that its Catholic high school pipeline is no longer as strong as it once was, both because of the weakening of the strength of the church and the overall demographic shift in the major sources of talent away from the Midwest to Florida and Texas.

(09-08-2017 09:52 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My two take aways from the article were 1) they've made some doubtful coaching hires, but are just a good coaching hire away from returning to the top echelon (duh), and 2) the success of conference television packages has increased everybody else's revenue and exposure so that ND is less unique.

I would observe that ND's biggest "problem," though, may be that its Catholic high school pipeline is no longer as strong as it once was, both because of the weakening of the strength of the church and the overall demographic shift in the major sources of talent away from the Midwest to Florida and Texas.

Your (2) is definitely true. But as to (1) I don't think so. Notre Dame of the 30's through the 50's was a school that many Catholic boys graduating High School felt compelled to attend. As those sons and grandsons and great-grandsons of Catholic immigrant families slowly lost their devotion to the faith of their fathers and in many cases lost their connection to faith at all, the lure of Notre Dame faded. One aspect that had made it great during the "church era" was that they truly could recruit nationally when virtually all of the rest of the schools (Ohio State and Alabama included) stayed very local and their regional influence had not yet grown vis a vis television's coverage of everything and conference expansion.

By the 80's if N.D. had any religious allure to it at all it certainly began to die with the abuse scandals. Today N.D. is remembered fondly by those of us at least past 50, if not past 60. It is, as the article points out, wholly irrelevant to the youth of today. I don't like the style of Coach Kelly but he has certainly won at a much higher percentage everywhere but Notre Dame. I'm not sold that the problem is his.

Also, N.D. has clung to independence for a reason. And a large part of that reason is recruiting. They know that if they confined most of their games to a particular region and thereby limited their exposure in the West, or Southeast, or any region to which their conference home was somewhat remote, that their ability to compete would be severely impaired. Hence we get games like ND/UGA for recognition in a state which is a recruiting hotbed. USC has long given them access to key recruits and has helped to build a true national presence, and to then keep it in the "post church era".

What they don't want to do is to be confined to a region and to have to compete against much better endowed athletic departments for mostly just the recruits from that area. Part of their disdain for the Big 10 has been rooted in historical slights and so we now have anecdotal stories of the animosity arising from them. But a goodly portion of that disdain is that they don't want to become Indiana's third major school along with Purdue and Indiana. It was great PR to be The Catholic University, and now that such a distinction no longer carries the same advantages they get to be the most prominent Independent University. If they lose that they are just another school in whichever conference they join. Right now they are still visible throughout the nation. If they join a conference they get tagged to particular region.

The fulcrum to their joining a conference will be athletic success. If they can't return to prominence and if the independent route becomes financially disadvantaged because of it, then they might have a difficult choice to make. Compounding that dilemma could be the eventual emergence of four power conferences the champions of which play for the title. All of these issues converging probably will lead to N.D. joining somewhere in full.

If it comes to that they will look for 3 likely criteria in making their commitment. 1. Academic Prestige: They are foremost a University and associations that enhance that mission will be essential. 2. Ease of access to the conference championship round in sports from a division that is essential to the schools student recruitment. The Northeast is the most likely site. Only the Big 10 and ACC offer access to such a potential division. 3. In the "post church era" revenue, particularly for private universities, will be paramount.

Since the Big 10 and ACC both offer the first two, it could come down to the third. So between now and 2030 (before such considerations could contractually start to be considered) the ACC member schools should be trying to reach out more demonstratively to embrace and include Notre Dame wherever academically possible. Their fit is more natural with the ACC, but the money is a lot better in the Big 10. Your present arrangement is like an engagement. You are socially contracted to be betrothed but no marriage date is set. You better keep wooing her, getting to know her, and making yourself attractive to her, because in 13 to 16 years, a blink of the eye in conference time, she could break the engagement.

ND is 60-31 under Brian Kelly. The sky is not falling.

As far a full conference membership, this is from the linked article:

"And Swarbrick wouldn't change a thing. Notre Dame is proud of its independence in football; time and again the university looked at joining a conference and decided against it. Notre Dame's decades-long dalliance with the Big Ten ended in the late '90s, and the school's one-foot-in, one-foot-out arrangement with the Atlantic Coast Conference has made both sides happy."

(09-08-2017 12:08 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is 60-31 under Brian Kelly. The sky is not falling.

As far a full conference membership, this is from the linked article:

"And Swarbrick wouldn't change a thing. Notre Dame is proud of its independence in football; time and again the university looked at joining a conference and decided against it. Notre Dame's decades-long dalliance with the Big Ten ended in the late '90s, and the school's one-foot-in, one-foot-out arrangement with the Atlantic Coast Conference has made both sides happy."

I like it. We can play on the same team, we don't need to live in the same neighborhood,

I like the present arrangement. Keeping Notre Dame in the ACC schedule mix gives every ACC team an additional high profile game each season. Right or wrong a win over an Independent Notre Dame is worth more to the CFP committee than another conference win.

The ACC / Notre Dame arrangement is unorthodox no doubt. It however serves a purpose for both parties.
CJ

(09-08-2017 12:08 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is 60-31 under Brian Kelly. The sky is not falling.

As far a full conference membership, this is from the linked article:

"And Swarbrick wouldn't change a thing. Notre Dame is proud of its independence in football; time and again the university looked at joining a conference and decided against it. Notre Dame's decades-long dalliance with the Big Ten ended in the late '90s, and the school's one-foot-in, one-foot-out arrangement with the Atlantic Coast Conference has made both sides happy."

Sorry, ESPN, ND will not be changing its independent football status. However, they may be changing their HC's status if he does not prove up to the challenge. Kelly is a good coach but not an elite coach. He needs to end the season annually in the top 25 with several appearances in the top 10.

So long as the ACC and ND are content with the arrangement, why change it?

Only time is going to answer this question.

(09-10-2017 05:18 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  

(09-08-2017 12:08 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is 60-31 under Brian Kelly. The sky is not falling.

As far a full conference membership, this is from the linked article:

"And Swarbrick wouldn't change a thing. Notre Dame is proud of its independence in football; time and again the university looked at joining a conference and decided against it. Notre Dame's decades-long dalliance with the Big Ten ended in the late '90s, and the school's one-foot-in, one-foot-out arrangement with the Atlantic Coast Conference has made both sides happy."

Sorry, ESPN, ND will not be changing its independent football status. However, they may be changing their HC's status if he does not prove up to the challenge. Kelly is a good coach but not an elite coach. He needs to end the season annually in the top 25 with several appearances in the top 10.

So long as the ACC and ND are content with the arrangement, why change it?

Notre Dame will join the ACC eventually, maybe not for the launch of the ACCN, but eventually.

(09-11-2017 03:52 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 05:18 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  

(09-08-2017 12:08 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is 60-31 under Brian Kelly. The sky is not falling.

As far a full conference membership, this is from the linked article:

"And Swarbrick wouldn't change a thing. Notre Dame is proud of its independence in football; time and again the university looked at joining a conference and decided against it. Notre Dame's decades-long dalliance with the Big Ten ended in the late '90s, and the school's one-foot-in, one-foot-out arrangement with the Atlantic Coast Conference has made both sides happy."

Sorry, ESPN, ND will not be changing its independent football status. However, they may be changing their HC's status if he does not prove up to the challenge. Kelly is a good coach but not an elite coach. He needs to end the season annually in the top 25 with several appearances in the top 10.

So long as the ACC and ND are content with the arrangement, why change it?

Notre Dame will join the ACC eventually, maybe not for the launch of the ACCN, but eventually.

"In the year 2525....".

(09-11-2017 10:21 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 03:52 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 05:18 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  

(09-08-2017 12:08 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is 60-31 under Brian Kelly. The sky is not falling.

As far a full conference membership, this is from the linked article:

"And Swarbrick wouldn't change a thing. Notre Dame is proud of its independence in football; time and again the university looked at joining a conference and decided against it. Notre Dame's decades-long dalliance with the Big Ten ended in the late '90s, and the school's one-foot-in, one-foot-out arrangement with the Atlantic Coast Conference has made both sides happy."

Sorry, ESPN, ND will not be changing its independent football status. However, they may be changing their HC's status if he does not prove up to the challenge. Kelly is a good coach but not an elite coach. He needs to end the season annually in the top 25 with several appearances in the top 10.

So long as the ACC and ND are content with the arrangement, why change it?

Notre Dame will join the ACC eventually, maybe not for the launch of the ACCN, but eventually.

"In the year 2525....".

I think its more likely ND agrees to one more ACC game in exchange for access to the ACC championship game.

(09-12-2017 12:25 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 10:21 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 03:52 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 05:18 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  

(09-08-2017 12:08 PM)TerryD Wrote:  ND is 60-31 under Brian Kelly. The sky is not falling.

As far a full conference membership, this is from the linked article:

"And Swarbrick wouldn't change a thing. Notre Dame is proud of its independence in football; time and again the university looked at joining a conference and decided against it. Notre Dame's decades-long dalliance with the Big Ten ended in the late '90s, and the school's one-foot-in, one-foot-out arrangement with the Atlantic Coast Conference has made both sides happy."

Sorry, ESPN, ND will not be changing its independent football status. However, they may be changing their HC's status if he does not prove up to the challenge. Kelly is a good coach but not an elite coach. He needs to end the season annually in the top 25 with several appearances in the top 10.

So long as the ACC and ND are content with the arrangement, why change it?

Notre Dame will join the ACC eventually, maybe not for the launch of the ACCN, but eventually.

"In the year 2525....".

I think its more likely ND agrees to one more ACC game in exchange for access to the ACC championship game.

They might, but that's not happening (ACC CG will cost at least 3 more games). I doubt anything changes until Notre Dame football is so beat down by losing to ACC teams that the ACC wouldn't benefit that much anyway.

(09-12-2017 06:29 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(09-12-2017 12:25 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 10:21 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 03:52 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 05:18 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  Sorry, ESPN, ND will not be changing its independent football status. However, they may be changing their HC's status if he does not prove up to the challenge. Kelly is a good coach but not an elite coach. He needs to end the season annually in the top 25 with several appearances in the top 10.

So long as the ACC and ND are content with the arrangement, why change it?

Notre Dame will join the ACC eventually, maybe not for the launch of the ACCN, but eventually.

"In the year 2525....".

I think its more likely ND agrees to one more ACC game in exchange for access to the ACC championship game.

They might, but that's not happening (ACC CG will cost at least 3 more games). I doubt anything changes until Notre Dame football is so beat down by losing to ACC teams that the ACC wouldn't benefit that much anyway.

I would like to see ND vs ACC records, as compared with ND vs other P5 Conf records. Last three years or four.

(09-08-2017 10:42 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-08-2017 09:52 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My two take aways from the article were 1) they've made some doubtful coaching hires, but are just a good coaching hire away from returning to the top echelon (duh), and 2) the success of conference television packages has increased everybody else's revenue and exposure so that ND is less unique.

I would observe that ND's biggest "problem," though, may be that its Catholic high school pipeline is no longer as strong as it once was, both because of the weakening of the strength of the church and the overall demographic shift in the major sources of talent away from the Midwest to Florida and Texas.

Your (2) is definitely true. But as to (1) I don't think so. Notre Dame of the 30's through the 50's was a school that many Catholic boys graduating High School felt compelled to attend. As those sons and grandsons and great-grandsons of Catholic immigrant families slowly lost their devotion to the faith of their fathers and in many cases lost their connection to faith at all, the lure of Notre Dame faded. One aspect that had made it great during the "church era" was that they truly could recruit nationally when virtually all of the rest of the schools (Ohio State and Alabama included) stayed very local and their regional influence had not yet grown vis a vis television's coverage of everything and conference expansion.

By the 80's if N.D. had any religious allure to it at all it certainly began to die with the abuse scandals. Today N.D. is remembered fondly by those of us at least past 50, if not past 60. It is, as the article points out, wholly irrelevant to the youth of today. I don't like the style of Coach Kelly but he has certainly won at a much higher percentage everywhere but Notre Dame. I'm not sold that the problem is his.

Also, N.D. has clung to independence for a reason. And a large part of that reason is recruiting. They know that if they confined most of their games to a particular region and thereby limited their exposure in the West, or Southeast, or any region to which their conference home was somewhat remote, that their ability to compete would be severely impaired. Hence we get games like ND/UGA for recognition in a state which is a recruiting hotbed. USC has long given them access to key recruits and has helped to build a true national presence, and to then keep it in the "post church era".

What they don't want to do is to be confined to a region and to have to compete against much better endowed athletic departments for mostly just the recruits from that area. Part of their disdain for the Big 10 has been rooted in historical slights and so we now have anecdotal stories of the animosity arising from them. But a goodly portion of that disdain is that they don't want to become Indiana's third major school along with Purdue and Indiana. It was great PR to be The Catholic University, and now that such a distinction no longer carries the same advantages they get to be the most prominent Independent University. If they lose that they are just another school in whichever conference they join. Right now they are still visible throughout the nation. If they join a conference they get tagged to particular region.

The fulcrum to their joining a conference will be athletic success. If they can't return to prominence and if the independent route becomes financially disadvantaged because of it, then they might have a difficult choice to make. Compounding that dilemma could be the eventual emergence of four power conferences the champions of which play for the title. All of these issues converging probably will lead to N.D. joining somewhere in full.

If it comes to that they will look for 3 likely criteria in making their commitment. 1. Academic Prestige: They are foremost a University and associations that enhance that mission will be essential. 2. Ease of access to the conference championship round in sports from a division that is essential to the schools student recruitment. The Northeast is the most likely site. Only the Big 10 and ACC offer access to such a potential division. 3. In the "post church era" revenue, particularly for private universities, will be paramount.

Since the Big 10 and ACC both offer the first two, it could come down to the third. So between now and 2030 (before such considerations could contractually start to be considered) the ACC member schools should be trying to reach out more demonstratively to embrace and include Notre Dame wherever academically possible. Their fit is more natural with the ACC, but the money is a lot better in the Big 10. Your present arrangement is like an engagement. You are socially contracted to be betrothed but no marriage date is set. You better keep wooing her, getting to know her, and making yourself attractive to her, because in 13 to 16 years, a blink of the eye in conference time, she could break the engagement.

I think you are a little overselling the "devotion to the faith" aspect. That's somewhat of an issue, but the bigger issue is that Catholics started going to college themselves and formed their own allegiances.

The first few generations of Catholic ND fans never sniffed college themselves. They picked ND the ways hundreds of thousands of people in Alabama, Michigan and Texas became mega fans of their state schools without ever setting foot in a classroom. If you're a Georgia kid, even if UGA isn't in your future, you've got family members, neighbors, teachers, coaches, etc who went to Georgia.

You had generations of Catholics however that didn't interact with anyone with college ties. It's also a factor that many areas with huge Catholic populations in the Northeast didn't have prominent state football programs to latch onto anyway.

I'm 45...my parents' generation was the last one to be raised with a ND identification. But from the 60s to now, Catholics have been going to college at the same rate as everyone else, and moving South and West where there are other programs.

Plus...the identification with Notre Dame dissipated as Catholics were mainstreamed into society, especially post-JFK. In the 20s, 30s, 40s...many Catholics still felt like discriminated against, for some good reason, so Notre Dame victories were vicarious victories. That has been a non-factor for a couple generations now. Catholics don't NEED a team to identify with.

All of that of course is far secondary to television factor. It's just a different landscape in so many ways.

Think ND's entire image is being unique and almost all of that seems tied up in being independent and little else. I think they will feel 'no longer unique' if they join a conference.

If they do, the B1G $$$ will win out. Too much of a gap.

(09-12-2017 10:03 AM)nole Wrote:  Think ND's entire image is being unique and almost all of that seems tied up in being independent and little else. I think they will feel 'no longer unique' if they join a conference.

If they do, the B1G $$$ will win out. Too much of a gap.

ND is locked into the ACC until 2036, so today's revenue gap will not affect any decision ND might make at that time. The long term financial competitiveness of the ACC with the B1G and the SEC will depend on how successful the ACCN. While the the B1G and the SEC are likely to continue to have some amount of advantage, the ACCN can go a long way to closing the gap.

(09-12-2017 12:21 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(09-12-2017 10:03 AM)nole Wrote:  Think ND's entire image is being unique and almost all of that seems tied up in being independent and little else. I think they will feel 'no longer unique' if they join a conference.

If they do, the B1G $$$ will win out. Too much of a gap.

ND is locked into the ACC until 2036, so today's revenue gap will not affect any decision ND might make at that time. The long term financial competitiveness of the ACC with the B1G and the SEC will depend on how successful the ACCN. While the the B1G and the SEC are likely to continue to have some amount of advantage, the ACCN can go a long way to closing the gap.

ND wants nothing to do with the Big Ten, IMO. While ND does have few rivalries with some Big Ten schools, I'm starting to believe that ND would rather shut its doors for good than to ever be affiliated with the Big Ten. With the ACC though, strange as it might seem, I think ND may finally found a conference it can/could call "home." The ACC has many things that ND really likes, and compared to other P5 conferences, the ACC has most private school members, something else ND really likes.

(09-12-2017 09:08 AM)Lou_C Wrote:  

(09-08-2017 10:42 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-08-2017 09:52 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My two take aways from the article were 1) they've made some doubtful coaching hires, but are just a good coaching hire away from returning to the top echelon (duh), and 2) the success of conference television packages has increased everybody else's revenue and exposure so that ND is less unique.

I would observe that ND's biggest "problem," though, may be that its Catholic high school pipeline is no longer as strong as it once was, both because of the weakening of the strength of the church and the overall demographic shift in the major sources of talent away from the Midwest to Florida and Texas.

Your (2) is definitely true. But as to (1) I don't think so. Notre Dame of the 30's through the 50's was a school that many Catholic boys graduating High School felt compelled to attend. As those sons and grandsons and great-grandsons of Catholic immigrant families slowly lost their devotion to the faith of their fathers and in many cases lost their connection to faith at all, the lure of Notre Dame faded. One aspect that had made it great during the "church era" was that they truly could recruit nationally when virtually all of the rest of the schools (Ohio State and Alabama included) stayed very local and their regional influence had not yet grown vis a vis television's coverage of everything and conference expansion.

By the 80's if N.D. had any religious allure to it at all it certainly began to die with the abuse scandals. Today N.D. is remembered fondly by those of us at least past 50, if not past 60. It is, as the article points out, wholly irrelevant to the youth of today. I don't like the style of Coach Kelly but he has certainly won at a much higher percentage everywhere but Notre Dame. I'm not sold that the problem is his.

Also, N.D. has clung to independence for a reason. And a large part of that reason is recruiting. They know that if they confined most of their games to a particular region and thereby limited their exposure in the West, or Southeast, or any region to which their conference home was somewhat remote, that their ability to compete would be severely impaired. Hence we get games like ND/UGA for recognition in a state which is a recruiting hotbed. USC has long given them access to key recruits and has helped to build a true national presence, and to then keep it in the "post church era".

What they don't want to do is to be confined to a region and to have to compete against much better endowed athletic departments for mostly just the recruits from that area. Part of their disdain for the Big 10 has been rooted in historical slights and so we now have anecdotal stories of the animosity arising from them. But a goodly portion of that disdain is that they don't want to become Indiana's third major school along with Purdue and Indiana. It was great PR to be The Catholic University, and now that such a distinction no longer carries the same advantages they get to be the most prominent Independent University. If they lose that they are just another school in whichever conference they join. Right now they are still visible throughout the nation. If they join a conference they get tagged to particular region.

The fulcrum to their joining a conference will be athletic success. If they can't return to prominence and if the independent route becomes financially disadvantaged because of it, then they might have a difficult choice to make. Compounding that dilemma could be the eventual emergence of four power conferences the champions of which play for the title. All of these issues converging probably will lead to N.D. joining somewhere in full.

If it comes to that they will look for 3 likely criteria in making their commitment. 1. Academic Prestige: They are foremost a University and associations that enhance that mission will be essential. 2. Ease of access to the conference championship round in sports from a division that is essential to the schools student recruitment. The Northeast is the most likely site. Only the Big 10 and ACC offer access to such a potential division. 3. In the "post church era" revenue, particularly for private universities, will be paramount.

Since the Big 10 and ACC both offer the first two, it could come down to the third. So between now and 2030 (before such considerations could contractually start to be considered) the ACC member schools should be trying to reach out more demonstratively to embrace and include Notre Dame wherever academically possible. Their fit is more natural with the ACC, but the money is a lot better in the Big 10. Your present arrangement is like an engagement. You are socially contracted to be betrothed but no marriage date is set. You better keep wooing her, getting to know her, and making yourself attractive to her, because in 13 to 16 years, a blink of the eye in conference time, she could break the engagement.

I think you are a little overselling the "devotion to the faith" aspect. That's somewhat of an issue, but the bigger issue is that Catholics started going to college themselves and formed their own allegiances.

The first few generations of Catholic ND fans never sniffed college themselves. They picked ND the ways hundreds of thousands of people in Alabama, Michigan and Texas became mega fans of their state schools without ever setting foot in a classroom. If you're a Georgia kid, even if UGA isn't in your future, you've got family members, neighbors, teachers, coaches, etc who went to Georgia.

You had generations of Catholics however that didn't interact with anyone with college ties. It's also a factor that many areas with huge Catholic populations in the Northeast didn't have prominent state football programs to latch onto anyway.

I'm 45...my parents' generation was the last one to be raised with a ND identification. But from the 60s to now, Catholics have been going to college at the same rate as everyone else, and moving South and West where there are other programs.

Plus...the identification with Notre Dame dissipated as Catholics were mainstreamed into society, especially post-JFK. In the 20s, 30s, 40s...many Catholics still felt like discriminated against, for some good reason, so Notre Dame victories were vicarious victories. That has been a non-factor for a couple generations now. Catholics don't NEED a team to identify with.

All of that of course is far secondary to television factor. It's just a different landscape in so many ways.

Reading these threads, one would believe that ND is a ghost campus, with tumbleweeds rolling through campus, its stadium shuttered and its Division II football team struggling to attract 15,000 fans per game in its soccer stadium........