RE: Week 1 Sunbelt Projections!
Thursday Aug 31
Tennessee State @ Georgia State
Georgia State wins by 14 - A midlevel FCS squad will give GSU some fits as their new coach tries to get things rolling. A ton of unknowns in this game as GSU wasn't a great team last season, and I have no idea what the new coach brings to the table.
Sacramento State @ Idaho
Idaho wins by 28 - The big offseason question for Idaho has not been whether or not Idaho can replace lost talent, but whether or not they still have a chip on their shoulder after they shocked the world last season and in their bowl game. If that team shows up Idaho will win big, otherwise they'll have to pull this one out in the 4th quarter like they did versus Montana State.
Louisiana Monroe @ Memphis
Memphis wins by 14 - An improved ULM should give Memphis a fight for three quarters. They've shown flashes last season that they can be a good football program and win two more games in '16 than in '15. Memphis is expected to be an NY6 contender and likely won't lose to the warhawks, but you can expect a good game here.
New Mexico State @ Arizona State
Arizona State wins by 28 - Maybe the only program in the SBC I don't have a ton of confidence for an improved season. Doug Martin has not shown that he's the guy to take NMSU to the next level. Arizona State is no where close to breaking into the Top 25, but should still be able to have their way with NMSU.
Saturday Sep 2
Troy @ Boise State
I won't put a score here, but a few notes are worth mentioning. Boise State has the most turnover they've had in 10 years replacing 5 of 6 all conference players on defense and nearly all of their O-line starts. They also lose Jeremy McNichols (1,709 yards and 23 TDs) to the NFL. That's an incredible talent and a huge loss for Boise State. Their top receiver Thomas Sperback (1,272 yards and 9 TDs) is also gone and he's been touted as one of the best players to play the game at Boise. I can't guarantee a win for Troy, but with 99.7% of the offense back and some HUGE play maker additions, we are in a really good spot in Game 1. One note: RB Jamarius Henderson, the Memphis transfer is currently suspended. He may be the best player on the team. He's that good, but apparently he has some issues. He's still on the roster and his twitter still reflects Troy. We'll see how this shakes out, and hopefully its just temporary.
Appalachian State @ Georgia
Georgia by 14 - Year 2 with Kirby Smart will be better, and after what happened in Tennessee last season, the APPs won't be sneaking up on anyone. Georgia is one of the most experienced teams in the country and it bodes well for the bulldogs.
UMass @ Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina wins by 3 - UMass doesn't win many games and they aren't a great football team, but they do play an independent schedule that makes them look worse than they actually are. With all of last years shoes to fill, CCU may need some luck to win this game. I'll say CCU gets the win, but UMass gives them quite a scare.
Southeastern Louisiana @ Louisiana
Louisiana wins by 21 - A middle of the pack FCS squad vs an improved Louisiana squad. If I were a betting man, you'll see a Southeastern squad play up to the cajuns with Hud's squad turning in a lackluster performance until the 4th quarter.
Houston Baptist @ Texas State
Texas State wins by 14 - Texas State will be improved, but it's still only game one after a really really bad season. HB is a bottom level FCS program and Texas State should handle them, but it won't be a blowout.
South Alabama @ Ole Miss
South Alabama wins by 7 - I'll call the upset on this one. People saying ULL has a better chance have it backwards. This program will be in disarray for a few games at the least. They may a chip on their shoulder, but it's too soon for that chip to turn into any kind of confidence.
Georgia Southern @ Auburn
Auburn by 3 - Auburn has a history of playing down to teams and eeking out wins nonetheless. ULM and Jascksonville State are somewhat recent examples of this. Georgia Southern will surprise Auburn with a TO they haven't prepared for. I'm torn because I think GS can steal this one big and win by double digits, but I also know Auburn is going to be really good. Game One is always squirrelly though. Expect the refs to take a long touchdown run away with a phantom holding call.
Arkansas State @ Nebraska
Nebraska wins by 14 - This is actually a winnable game from a talent standpoint. Nebraska isn't a Top 25 Team. They are replacing 80% of their offense and that's a big deal in game one. Arkansas State loses a lot of defensive players, but offense usually takes more time to sync. The outcome of this game really depends on which Arkansas State team shows up for OOC this year.
|