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Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #361
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-19-2018 01:47 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Nerdlinger, I would re-arrange your North and East Divisions as follows:

Atlantic - Boston College, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Coastal - Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, West Virginia

Not a bad suggestion -- that alignment would actually make the pods slightly better balanced in terms of average football strength. As a plus, Notre Dame gets an annual game with BC. However, both groupings of teams are geographically non-contiguous, although that may only matter to me. Also, such an alignment would disrupt some annual series (e.g., Pittsburgh can't play both Syracuse and WV annually, and Syracuse can't play both BC and Pitt annually).
10-19-2018 02:32 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #362
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Would Grinnell and Washington, Mo. staying D1? They would park their football in the Pioneer?
CalTech kept football and stay d1? Which conference they will be in? I think their football would be in the Pioneer with San Diego.
10-19-2018 11:28 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #363
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
I'm expanding the scope of this thread to include future realignment scenarios, so feel free to post those as well!

To start us off, here's a scenario in the 2030s (although it could also have been a result of the Great Realignment of the early 2010s), wherein the Big 12 survives the expiration of its current GoR intact and renews for a decade. Thus this takes place around the time the current ACC and SEC GoRs expire.

As in several other scenarios, the realignment is kicked off by the Texoma 4 going to the Pac. (This move is a nice catalyst for both alternate history and future scenarios.) Though the Big Ten fails in its effort to break into Virginia and North Carolina, the SEC is successful in poaching VT and NC State from the ACC. The Big Ten instead adds Kansas and takes Missouri off the SEC's hands. WVU is quickly tapped by the SEC as a replacement. The imminent P4 scenario forces ND football to join the ACC in full, a move facilitated by the ACC's adding Navy as a football-only member. The last two spots in the ACC go to TCU and (in an upset) Houston over Baylor. The Big 12, left with only Baylor, ISU, and KSU, rebuilds from the American, sealing its fate as a tweener conference.

ACC (Divisions: Atlantic/Coastal)
Pod 1: Boston College, Miami-FL, Navy (FB only), Notre Dame
Pod 2: Syracuse, Florida State, Louisville, Pittsburgh
Pod 3: North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, Duke
Pod 4: Virginia, Georgia Tech, Houston, TCU

Big Ten (Divisions: Midwest/North)
Pod 1: Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Pod 2: Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa
Pod 3: Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, Ohio State
Pod 4: Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan

Pac-16 (Divisions: Northeast/Southwest, Northwest/Southeast)
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC (Divisions: Eastern/Southern)
Pod 1: Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Pod 2: Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
Pod 3: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Mississippi State, NC State
Pod 4: LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Temple
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, SMU

The ACC and SEC have 8-game conference schedules. Pods rotate between two 8-team divisions in a 3-year cycle. Each team has a protected crossover in another pod and an alternate crossover in yet another pod (for years when the protected crossovers are in the same division). Teams are listed in the same order as their protected crossovers (Pod 1 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 4). For example, Boston College/Syracuse is protected, as is Mississippi State/Ole Miss. Teams are also listed in the same order as their alternate crossovers (Pod 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3). For example, Miami/Georgia Tech is an alternate crossover, as is South Carolina/NC State.

The Big Ten has a 9-game conference schedule, which is structured just like that of the ACC and SEC except that each team has a protected crossover in all 3 of the other pods. These take the place of the alternate crossovers. Teams are listed in the same order as their protected crossovers. For example, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan all have protected crossovers with one another.

The Pac-16 has a 9-game conference schedule as well, but there are no protected crossovers. Also, the pods rotate between divisions, but the North and South Pods never share a division, nor do the East and West Pods. Every 2 years, the pods alternate (for 2 years, it's North+East and South+West, and for the next 2 years, it's North+West and South+East). Each team has 2 crossovers per year against the "opposite" pod (North vs. South, East vs. West) that rotate every 2 years. This allows 2 full conference playthroughs in 4 years. The other P4 conferences require 6 years for 2 full playthroughs.

The Big 12 has an 8-game conference schedule (4 intradivision, 4 rotating interdivision).

While there is no official rule regarding autobids for P4 conference champs to the 4-team CFP, the contracts made by the conferences with the NY6 bowls ensure each P4 champ will be in the CFP.
(This post was last modified: 11-01-2018 05:11 PM by Nerdlinger.)
10-23-2018 03:07 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #364
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
From another thread, a potential future ACC with ND football and a FB-only Navy:

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Florida State, Louisville, Miami-FL, Navy (FB only), Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Coastal: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Of course, with an 8-game conference schedule, it would take 8 years to play the entire conference. However, the most important rivalries have not been split up, and the divisions are decently balanced in football strength.

For a less rigid alternative while still keeping it at 8 games, they could instead use a pod setup like so:

ACC
Pod 1: Boston College, Miami-FL, Navy (FB only), Notre Dame
Pod 2: Syracuse, Florida State, Louisville, Pittsburgh
Pod 3: NC State, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia
Pod 4: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia Tech

Pods rotate between two 8-team divisions (Atlantic/Coastal) in a 3-year cycle. Each team has a protected crossover in another pod and an alternate crossover in yet another pod (for years when the protected crossovers are in the same division). Teams are listed in the same order as their protected crossovers (Pod 1 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 4). For example, Boston College/Syracuse is protected, as is Virginia/Virginia Tech. Teams are also listed in the same order as their alternate crossovers (Pod 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3). For example, Boston College/Wake Forest is an alternate crossover, as is Pittsburgh/Virginia.

So in such a scenario, Notre Dame's OOC schedule might look like this:

1. USC
2. Shamrock Series
3. Other power conference team (e.g., Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Stanford)
4. Non-power conference team (buy game)

This allows them to have 6 actual home games plus 1 virtual home game with the Shamrock Series. The annual in-conference game with the Hurricanes (played in Miami at the end of the season when not playing at USC) replaces the Stanford game for the purposes of accessing fertile recruiting grounds.

~~~~~~

A slightly different arrangement of crossovers for the pod setup:

School: Protected crossover (played every year), Alternate crossover (played 2 years out of 3)

Pod 1
Boston College: Syracuse, Duke
Miami-FL: Florida State, Georgia Tech
Navy (FB only): Louisville, Virginia
Notre Dame: Pittsburgh, NC State

Pod 2
Syracuse: Boston College, North Carolina
Florida State: Miami-FL, Clemson
Louisville: Navy, Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh: Notre Dame, Wake Forest

Pod 3
North Carolina: Duke, Syracuse
Clemson: Georgia Tech, Florida State
Virginia: Virginia Tech, Navy
NC State: Wake Forest, Notre Dame

Pod 4
Duke: North Carolina, Boston College
Georgia Tech: Clemson, Miami-FL
Virginia Tech: Virginia, Louisville
Wake Forest: NC State, Pittsburgh
(This post was last modified: 01-23-2019 10:22 PM by Nerdlinger.)
10-23-2018 03:26 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #365
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-19-2018 09:03 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 09:14 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Revisiting a successful Texoma gambit by the Pac in 2010. Here the ACC and Big 12 are gutted. The remnants band together with Notre Dame, TCU, and a few BE football schools to survive as a power conference. Baylor is left out in the cold.

ACC/Big 16
East: Boston College, Florida State, Miami-FL, Syracuse
North: Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
West: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU

Big Ten
East: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
North: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
South: Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Pac-16
East: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M

The non-power schools align pretty much the same as in our timeline. What's particularly interesting to me about this scenario is how strong the "leftover" conference is. The weighted mean Sagarin rating (WMSR*) for football from 1998-2017 for the average team in each P4 conference:

SEC: 79.59
Pac-16: 78.64
ACC/Big 16: 76.01
Big Ten: 74.90

* How to calculate current WMSR for a school, using Youngstown State as an example:

Year: Sagarin rating * Weight = Weighted Sagarin rating
1998: 48.76 * 1 = 48.76
1999: 64.47 * 2 = 128.94
2000: 57.43 * 3 = 172.29
2001: 55.00 * 4 = 220.00
2002: 57.94 * 5 = 289.70
2003: 49.54 * 6 = 297.24
2004: 46.25 * 7 = 323.75
2005: 62.39 * 8 = 499.12
2006: 68.55 * 9 = 616.95
2007: 60.83 * 10 = 608.30
2008: 43.52 * 11 = 478.72
2009: 51.71 * 12 = 620.52
2010: 52.29 * 13 = 679.77
2011: 60.01 * 14 = 840.14
2012: 63.57 * 15 = 953.55
2013: 60.39 * 16 = 966.24
2014: 60.15 * 17 = 1,022.55
2015: 58.88 * 18 = 1,059.84
2016: 69.48 * 19 = 1,320.12
2017: 62.34 * 20 = 1,246.80

Sum of weighted Sagarin ratings for 1998-2017 = 12,393.30
Sum of weights for 1998-2017 = 210
Weighted mean Sagarin rating (WMSR) for 1998-2017 = 12,393.30 / 210 = 59.02

Note: 1998 is the first year Sagarin rating came out for football

Re-revisiting this successful Texoma-to-Pac scenario. In reality, if the current Big 12 survives the expiration of its GoR intact and renews for a decade or so, this scenario could actually come to pass in the 2030s when the ACC GoR expires (assuming the market mantra still holds sway in conference expansion decisions).

In any case, for fun, I developed schedules for the P4 conferences. The ACC/Big 16 and SEC have 8-game schedules, with the 4-team pods rotating between two 8-team divisions in a 3-year cycle. Each year, a team plays its division plus 1 interdivision crossover. Each team has a protected crossover for the 2 years out of 3 in which they're not in the same division, as well as an alternate crossover for the 1 year they share a division with the protected crossover. It takes 3 years to play every team once and 6 years to play every team home and away. In that 6-year time span, a team plays their division mates and protected crossover 6 times, their alternate crossover 4 times, and all other teams twice. Here are the crossovers for each team:

Team: Protected Crossover, Alternate Crossover

ACC/Big 16

East
Boston College: Wake Forest, Iowa State
Florida State: Clemson, Kansas State
Miami-FL: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
Syracuse: Pittsburgh, Duke

North
Louisville: Kansas State, Clemson
Notre Dame: Miami-FL, TCU
Pittsburgh: Syracuse, Kansas
West Virginia: Iowa State, Wake Forest

South
Clemson: Florida State, Louisville
Duke: Kansas, Syracuse
Georgia Tech: TCU, Miami-FL
Wake Forest: Boston College, West Virginia

West
Iowa State: West Virginia, Boston College
Kansas: Duke, Pittsburgh
Kansas State: Louisville, Florida State
TCU: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame

============

SEC

East
Florida: LSU, Tennessee
Georgia: Auburn, Texas A&M
NC State: Mississippi State, Missouri
South Carolina: Arkansas, Vanderbilt

North
Kentucky: Missouri, Mississippi State
Tennessee: Alabama, Florida
Vanderbilt: Ole Miss, South Carolina
Virginia Tech: Texas A&M, Auburn

South
Alabama: Tennessee, LSU
Auburn: Georgia, Virginia Tech
Mississippi State: NC State, Kentucky
Ole Miss: Vanderbilt, Arkansas

West
Arkansas: South Carolina, Ole Miss
LSU: Florida, Alabama
Missouri: Kentucky, NC State
Texas A&M: Virginia Tech, Georgia

The Big Ten and Pac-16 have 9-game conference schedules with no protected crossovers. Their pods also cycle between divisions, but the North and South never share a division, nor do the East and West. For two years, there are Northeast and Southwest Divisions, and for the next two years, there are Northwest and Southeast Divisions. For each team, the 2 interdivision crossovers per year are only against teams in the "opposite" pod (i.e., North vs. South, East vs. West). All this results in each team playing all other teams at least twice in 4 years.

Any thoughts? I can share the schedule grids if anyone's interested.

End-of-regular-season rivalry week in this scenario (opponent in parentheses, * = OOC):

ACC/Big 16
East: Boston College (Syracuse), Florida State (Florida*), Miami-FL (Notre Dame or [bye]), Syracuse (Boston College)
North: Louisville (Kentucky*), Notre Dame (Miami-FL or USC*), Pittsburgh (West Virginia), West Virginia (Pittsburgh)
South: Clemson (South Carolina*), Duke (Wake Forest), Georgia Tech (Georgia*), Wake Forest (Duke)
West: Iowa State (Kansas State), Kansas (Missouri*), Kansas State (Iowa State), TCU (Texas Tech*)

Big Ten
East: Michigan (Ohio State), Michigan State (Penn State), Ohio State (Michigan), Penn State (Michigan State)
North: Illinois (Northwestern), Indiana (Purdue), Northwestern (Illinois), Purdue (Indiana)
South: Maryland (Rutgers), North Carolina (NC State*), Rutgers (Maryland), Virginia (Virginia Tech*)
West: Iowa (Nebraska), Minnesota (Wisconsin), Nebraska (Iowa), Wisconsin (Minnesota)

Pac-16
East: Oklahoma (Oklahoma State), Oklahoma State (Oklahoma), Texas (Texas A&M*), Texas Tech (TCU*)
North: Oregon (Oregon State), Oregon State (Oregon), Washington (Washington State), Washington State (Washington)
South: Arizona (Arizona State), Arizona State (Arizona), Colorado (Utah), Utah (Colorado)
West: California (Stanford), Stanford (California), UCLA (USC or [bye]), USC (Notre Dame* or UCLA)

SEC
East: Florida (Florida State*), Georgia (Georgia Tech*), NC State (North Carolina*), South Carolina (Clemson*)
North: Kentucky (Louisville*), Tennessee (Vanderbilt), Vanderbilt (Tennessee), Virginia Tech (Virginia*)
South: Alabama (Auburn), Auburn (Alabama), Mississippi State (Ole Miss), Ole Miss (Mississippi State)
West: Arkansas (LSU), LSU (Arkansas), Missouri (Kansas*), Texas A&M (Texas*)

Annual OOC rivalry games played earlier in the season: BYU/Utah, Colorado/Colorado State, Iowa/Iowa State, Navy/Notre Dame, Nebraska/Oklahoma, Notre Dame/USC (when at ND), Penn State/Pittsburgh, SMU/TCU

NOTE: Although UNC and Duke no longer play annually in football, they continue to do so in basketball.

Also: MAP OF P4 CONFERENCES!!!
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2018 03:53 PM by Nerdlinger.)
10-27-2018 07:42 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #366
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Here's a question that occurred to me: if, as in the scenario in the previous post, Baylor were the only current P5 school left out of a P4 realignment, would they opt to go independent, BYU-style? The Big 12 would be dissolved, so if they wanted to join a conference, it'd be either the AAC or MWC, and I can't see them lowering themselves to that.
10-31-2018 03:44 PM
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whittx Offline
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Post: #367
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-31-2018 03:44 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Here's a question that occurred to me: if, as in the scenario in the previous post, Baylor were the only current P5 school left out of a P4 realignment, would they opt to go independent, BYU-style? The Big 12 would be dissolved, so if they wanted to join a conference, it'd be either the AAC or MWC, and I can't see them lowering themselves to that.

If they did, they would go with the American, since it would bring them back with Houston and SMU. They would be outliers in the Mountain West.
10-31-2018 03:58 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #368
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-31-2018 03:58 PM)whittx Wrote:  
(10-31-2018 03:44 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Here's a question that occurred to me: if, as in the scenario in the previous post, Baylor were the only current P5 school left out of a P4 realignment, would they opt to go independent, BYU-style? The Big 12 would be dissolved, so if they wanted to join a conference, it'd be either the AAC or MWC, and I can't see them lowering themselves to that.

If they did, they would go with the American, since it would bring them back with Houston and SMU. They would be outliers in the Mountain West.

Makes sense, for their non-football sports at least. I suspect the American would be willing to take them, with or without football. But I still imagine that they'd go football independent. They might even be able to make a successful go of it, considering how attractive Texas is to other schools for recruiting purposes.
11-01-2018 08:41 AM
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The Grape King Offline
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Post: #369
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
I've got a public Big East in my head. Not realistic, but it includes only teams outside the P5 so not total fantasy

Temple
Cincinnati
UConn
Memphis
UMass
Buffalo
Old Dominion
Marshall
URI (basketball)
VCU (basketball)
Army (football)
Navy (football)
11-01-2018 12:42 PM
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whittx Offline
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Post: #370
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-01-2018 12:42 PM)The Grape King Wrote:  I've got a public Big East in my head. Not realistic, but it includes only teams outside the P5 so not total fantasy

Temple
Cincinnati
UConn
Memphis
UMass
Buffalo
Old Dominion
Marshall
URI (basketball)
VCU (basketball)
Army (football)
Navy (football)

And when the next round of realignment comes up, add James Madison.
11-01-2018 02:05 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #371
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-01-2018 12:42 PM)The Grape King Wrote:  I've got a public Big East in my head. Not realistic, but it includes only teams outside the P5 so not total fantasy

Temple
Cincinnati
UConn
Memphis
UMass
Buffalo
Old Dominion
Marshall
URI (basketball)
VCU (basketball)
Army (football)
Navy (football)

I could see something like this possibly occurring as the result of a P4 scenario wherein the Big 12 loses UT and OU, among perhaps other schools, and rebuilds by raiding the AAC, taking, say, Houston, UCF, and USF, at the least. ECU and the remaining western AAC schools besides Memphis drift apart from the other remaining AAC schools and join up with some or all of the western and central CUSA schools. The AAC remnant picks up a few schools from other conferences and indies to create a more eastern-based league, resulting in your lineup. (Not sure why ECU would go west and Memphis east, though.) I wouldn't say it's a likely scenario, but not totally impossible.
(This post was last modified: 11-01-2018 02:26 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-01-2018 02:24 PM
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Post: #372
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
I've been having fun coming up with 8-game conference schedules for plausible future 16-team alignments for the ACC and SEC. I verified that each of these setups results in a workable schedule. I also tried to maintain as many strong rivalries as annual matchups as possible. In each alignment, there are four 4-team pods. Within each conference, the 4 pods are roughly equivalent to one another in average football strength, or as close as I could get. Pods rotate between two 8-team divisions in a 3-year cycle. Each team has a protected crossover in another pod and an alternate crossover in yet another pod (for years when the protected crossovers are in the same division). In a 6-year period, each team plays its pod mates and protected crossover 6 times, its alternate crossover 4 times, and all other teams twice.

School: Protected crossover, Alternate crossover

ACC + ND (full) + WVU (Version 1)

Pod 1
Boston College: Syracuse, Duke
Louisville: West Virginia, Virginia
Miami-FL: Florida State, Georgia Tech
Notre Dame: Pittsburgh, NC State

Pod 2
Syracuse: Boston College, North Carolina
West Virginia: Louisville, Virginia Tech
Florida State: Miami-FL, Clemson
Pittsburgh: Notre Dame, Wake Forest

Pod 3
North Carolina: Duke, Syracuse
Virginia: Virginia Tech, Louisville
Clemson: Georgia Tech, Florida State
NC State: Wake Forest, Notre Dame

Pod 4
Duke: North Carolina, Boston College
Virginia Tech: Virginia, West Virginia
Georgia Tech: Clemson, Miami-FL
Wake Forest: NC State, Pittsburgh

============

ACC + ND (full) + WVU (Version 2)

Pod 1
Boston College: Syracuse, North Carolina
Notre Dame: Miami-FL, NC State
Pittsburgh: Virginia, Louisville
West Virginia: Virginia Tech, Florida State

Pod 2
Syracuse: Boston College, Duke
Miami-FL: Notre Dame, Wake Forest
Louisville: Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh
Florida State: Clemson, West Virginia

Pod 3
North Carolina: Duke, Boston College
NC State: Wake Forest, Notre Dame
Virginia: Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech: West Virginia, Clemson

Pod 4
Duke: North Carolina, Syracuse
Wake Forest: NC State, Miami-FL
Georgia Tech: Louisville, Virginia
Clemson: Florida State, Virginia Tech

============

SEC + OU + OSU (Version 1) -- I prefer this to Version 2

East
Florida: Oklahoma State, LSU
Georgia: Auburn, Texas A&M
Kentucky: Tennessee, Mississippi State
South Carolina: Missouri, Ole Miss

North
Oklahoma State: Florida, Alabama
Oklahoma: Texas A&M, Auburn
Arkansas: Mississippi State, Tennessee
Missouri: South Carolina, Vanderbilt

South
Alabama: LSU, Oklahoma State
Auburn: Georgia, Oklahoma
Tennessee: Kentucky, Arkansas
Vanderbilt: Ole Miss, Missouri

West
LSU: Alabama, Florida
Texas A&M: Oklahoma, Georgia
Mississippi State: Arkansas, Kentucky
Ole Miss: Vanderbilt, South Carolina

============

SEC + OU + OSU (Version 2)

Pod 1
Florida: Oklahoma, LSU
Georgia: Auburn, Arkansas
Kentucky: Tennessee, Mississippi State
South Carolina: Missouri, Ole Miss

Pod 2
Oklahoma: Florida, Alabama
Texas A&M: Arkansas, Auburn
Oklahoma State: Mississippi State, Tennessee
Missouri: South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Pod 3
Alabama: LSU, Oklahoma
Auburn: Georgia, Texas A&M
Tennessee: Kentucky, Oklahoma State
Vanderbilt: Ole Miss, Missouri

Pod 4
LSU: Alabama, Florida
Arkansas: Texas A&M, Georgia
Mississippi State: Oklahoma State, Kentucky
Ole Miss: Vanderbilt, South Carolina

============

SEC + OU + OSU + WVU - Mizzou

Pod 1
Florida: Texas A&M, Alabama
Georgia: Auburn, Oklahoma
South Carolina: Arkansas, Tennessee
West Virginia: Kentucky, Oklahoma State

Pod 2
Texas A&M: Florida, LSU
Oklahoma: Ole Miss, Georgia
Arkansas: South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Oklahoma State: Mississippi State, West Virginia

Pod 3
Alabama: LSU, Florida
Auburn: Georgia, Ole Miss
Tennessee: Vanderbilt, South Carolina
Kentucky: West Virginia, Mississippi State

Pod 4
LSU: Alabama, Texas A&M
Ole Miss: Oklahoma, Auburn
Vanderbilt: Tennessee, Arkansas
Mississippi State: Oklahoma State, Kentucky

============

SEC + Clemson + FSU

Pod 1
Alabama: LSU, Florida
Auburn: Georgia, Texas A&M
Kentucky: Arkansas, South Carolina
Tennessee: Vanderbilt, Missouri

Pod 2
Florida: Florida State, Alabama
Georgia: Auburn, Mississippi State
South Carolina: Clemson, Kentucky
Vanderbilt: Tennessee, Ole Miss

Pod 3
Florida State: Florida, LSU
Mississippi State: Texas A&M, Georgia
Clemson: South Carolina, Arkansas
Ole Miss: Missouri, Vanderbilt

Pod 4
LSU: Alabama, Florida State
Texas A&M: Mississippi State, Auburn
Arkansas: Kentucky, Clemson
Missouri: Ole Miss, Tennessee

============

Let me know what you think about these setups and if you have suggested changes. Thanks!
(This post was last modified: 01-23-2019 10:13 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-06-2018 10:42 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #373
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
I would make one change, but it's a big one. I would create one new conference, and leave all the others unchanged except for the movement to this new conference.

I haven't come up with a name for this new conference yet, but it would have two divisions: Southeast and Northwest.

Southeast Division:

Alabama
Clemson
Oklahoma
LSU
Florida State
Georgia
Auburn
Florida
Texas

Northwest Division:

Ohio State
Stanford
Wisconsin
Southern Cal
Oregon
Washington
Notre Dame
Penn State
Michigan

Teams in both divisions are listed in order of each team's 10 year weighted average Sagarin rank. They would play a balanced 4 home/4 away schedule within their division, with no crossovers except mutually agreed to OOC games.

This conference would opt out of the CFP, electing instead to have a four team CCG. They would contract with individual bowls (including the NY6) allowing for the possibilty of playing teams from the other division in the post season.

The Southeast division's 10 year Sagarin average would be 87 and the Northwest's would be 85.

The other 10 conferences would still appear to be split along P5 and G5 lines, except the money differential would be a lot smaller. Their 10 year Sagarin averages would be:

SEC 76
B12 75
ACC 74
PAC 73
B1G 71

AAC 66
MWC 63
MAC 59
SUN 58
USA 58


What do you think we should call this new conference?
11-06-2018 05:15 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #374
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-06-2018 05:15 PM)ken d Wrote:  What do you think we should call this new conference?

Well, it covers most of the country, so how about ... Conference ... USA? ... Wait.

OK, instead, how about the ... American Athletic ... Oh.
11-06-2018 05:25 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #375
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-06-2018 05:25 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 05:15 PM)ken d Wrote:  What do you think we should call this new conference?

Well, it covers most of the country, so how about ... Conference ... USA? ... Wait.

OK, instead, how about the ... American Athletic ... Oh.

That's a problem with realignment. All the good conference names are already taken. 04-cheers
11-06-2018 05:54 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #376
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-06-2018 05:54 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 05:25 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 05:15 PM)ken d Wrote:  What do you think we should call this new conference?

Well, it covers most of the country, so how about ... Conference ... USA? ... Wait.

OK, instead, how about the ... American Athletic ... Oh.

That's a problem with realignment. All the good conference names are already taken. 04-cheers

Yeah, what could be more compelling and imaginative than names like Big Twelve (with ten teams) and Big Ten (with fourteen teams)? The poor devils can't even count. Naming conferences after geographic regions with severely misshapen and blurred boundaries is so yesterday. Instead, how about names that are more accurate and trendy? I'm thinking along the lines of Big Amazon, Big Netflix, Big ESPN, Big Hulu, Big NBC, Big CBS, and Big ABC?
11-06-2018 07:01 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #377
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-06-2018 07:01 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 05:54 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 05:25 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 05:15 PM)ken d Wrote:  What do you think we should call this new conference?

Well, it covers most of the country, so how about ... Conference ... USA? ... Wait.

OK, instead, how about the ... American Athletic ... Oh.

That's a problem with realignment. All the good conference names are already taken. 04-cheers

Yeah, what could be more compelling and imaginative than names like Big Twelve (with ten teams) and Big Ten (with fourteen teams)? The poor devils can't even count. Naming conferences after geographic regions with severely misshapen and blurred boundaries is so yesterday. Instead, how about names that are more accurate and trendy? I'm thinking along the lines of Big Amazon, Big Netflix, Big ESPN, Big Hulu, Big NBC, Big CBS, and Big ABC?

I think you may be onto something. Those guys can make even Adidas and Nike look like bit players.
11-06-2018 07:16 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #378
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
After removing the teams in the new conference from the field, these are the Top 25 remaining teams according to their ten year weighted average Sagarin rank:

10 Oklahoma State
12 TCU
18 Michigan State
20 Texas A&M
21 Mississippi State
23 Kansas State
24 Virginia Tech
25 Louisville
26 Baylor
27 Miami
28 Utah
29 Iowa
30 Boise State
31 Ole Miss
32 South Carolina
33 Georgia Tech
35 Arkansas
36 Missouri
37 West Virginia
38 UCLA
39 Nebraska
40 Arizona State
41 Northwestern
42 Tennessee
43 North Carolina

Will be interesting to see how this list changes after this season. With 2018 having the highest weight, some teams could drop quite a bit.
11-07-2018 10:28 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Supposing that the Big 12 does survive the expiration of its current GoR intact and renews, perhaps they might consider reverting to an 8-game schedule and splitting into two 5-team divisions for football. The round robin is nice (and I actually prefer it), but this change would allow for more OOC scheduling flexibility. A simple geographic split would not be ideal, as the South would be significantly stronger than the North (even if it were OSU in the South instead of OU). I might suggest the following "zipper" alignment, which does provide better balance:

"Central": Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
"Plains": Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Iowa State

The division names are debatable. Each team plays its own division mates and a protected crossover every year, with the remaining 3 games played against a rotation of the other 4 interdivision opponents. The protected crossovers:

Kansas/Kansas State
Oklahoma/Oklahoma State
Texas/TCU
Texas Tech/Baylor
West Virginia/Iowa State

Both divisions get two Texas teams to ensure equal access to recruiting in the Lone Star State for non-Texas teams.

Overall, it's not bad. What do you think?
11-12-2018 01:40 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #380
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-06-2018 07:16 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 07:01 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 05:54 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 05:25 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 05:15 PM)ken d Wrote:  What do you think we should call this new conference?

Well, it covers most of the country, so how about ... Conference ... USA? ... Wait.

OK, instead, how about the ... American Athletic ... Oh.

That's a problem with realignment. All the good conference names are already taken. 04-cheers

Yeah, what could be more compelling and imaginative than names like Big Twelve (with ten teams) and Big Ten (with fourteen teams)? The poor devils can't even count. Naming conferences after geographic regions with severely misshapen and blurred boundaries is so yesterday. Instead, how about names that are more accurate and trendy? I'm thinking along the lines of Big Amazon, Big Netflix, Big ESPN, Big Hulu, Big NBC, Big CBS, and Big ABC?

I think you may be onto something. Those guys can make even Adidas and Nike look like bit players.

Exactly...I hate big 12-2 & Big 10 + 4.
I like the conferences with the geography:
SEC: a conference full of mostly south eastern schools
ACC: a conference full of mostly schools along The Atlantic Coast
MWC: a conference full of schools in the Mountain West
PAC: a conference full of schools mostly located on the Pacific Coast
MAC: a conference full of mostly midwestern schools

Even these are more accurate than the big 12-2 and big 10 + 4:

AAC: A conference full of schools located in America
CUSA: A conference full of schools located across the USA
11-13-2018 02:46 PM
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