The unofficial online home for fans of the Western Michigan University Broncos. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(07-08-2017 12:51 PM)Dirty Ernie Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:46 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:32 AM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  NIU gave up 30 a game, WMU 19. "Statistically" that's a big difference

I find it best to use common opponents for comparison. It's not really fair to use OOC results because the quality of opponent can very so much and I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing about the quality of OOC opponents in 2016. WMU had 6 common opponents with NIU last season. CMU,emu,ball,Kent,buff, and tol. WMU gave up 116 pts total. 19ppg. NIU gave up 129 pts or 21 ppg. You can call it cherry picking if you want. It's just common sense when comparing teams.

The truth is, once you are a couple TDs ahead, as WMU often was, the D can kind of sit back and let the opponent run time of the clock for a couple series. Pretty soon it's late in the game and basically over. So D stats can be deceptive that way.

That's a valid point. Let me just reiterate, I'm not saying NIUs defense was better or even as good, just that to say one defense is supremely talented and will dominate while the other is bad is just not accurate. WMU gave up almost 1,000 yards to Toledo and NIU combined. That's not a defense that really dominates.

(07-08-2017 01:50 PM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  WIU went 6-5. NC Central went 9-3 and finished 19th in the FCS coaches poll. I will concede that NIU's other OOC opponents were better on average. But getting blown out by USF isn't better than beating TWO Big 10 teams, regardless of which teams they were.

I also don't know where you are getting these statistics.

2016 stats:
WMU - 228.1 RYPG
NIU - 239.8 RYPG

If you subtract Maddie's 79.7 RYPG....that's 160.1. Definitely not more than WMU. You take out Maddie's YPC, NIU had 4.97 YPC, which is lower than (although comparable to) WMU's 5.04.

The largest margin in the WMU-Toledo game was in the 4th quarter, when WMU was winning 48 to 21, a margin of 27.

Actually I was looking at the NIU-WMU game specifically, rather than the whole season. In that way the stats aren't inflated by the numbers against teams like Buffalo or BG. The numbers are just against WMUs defense. In any case, it doesn't really make sense to exclude Maddie's stats.

Ah, my mistake. I thought you were talking about the whole season.

I'll admit that the USF game was downright embarrassing. Hare got injured in that game but we weren't doing much even with him in there. And the defense looked like it had no idea what it was doing, almost as bad as the Boise State game. It still remains to be seen whether Carey can come up with a reasonably good defense.

Well geez, if we want to talk about that game...

NIU allegedly had/has one of the best secondaries in the MAC. Terrell completed 18 of 24, 327 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs.

NIU played well in that game. WMU had to adjust to Maddie. He had only played in 1.5 games before the WMU game, so WMU defense didn't have a lot of tape and weren't prepared for his dual-threat style. Respect where it's due though. NIU was one of our tougher MAC games and was much tougher than Illinois, lol.

(07-08-2017 02:19 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I'll admit that the USF game was downright embarrassing. Hare got injured in that game but we weren't doing much even with him in there. And the defense looked like it had no idea what it was doing, almost as bad as the Boise State game. It still remains to be seen whether Carey can come up with a reasonably good defense.

USF does that against most teams. Hell, they scored 35 on Florida State, 52 on Navy and 46 on South Carolina.

That Boise game from 2015 though? That was embarrassing.

(07-08-2017 02:21 PM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  Well geez, if we want to talk about that game...

NIU allegedly had/has one of the best secondaries in the MAC. Terrell completed 18 of 24, 327 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs.

NIU played well in that game. WMU had to adjust to Maddie. He had only played in 1.5 games before the WMU game, so WMU defense didn't have a lot of tape and weren't prepared for his dual-threat style. Respect where it's due though. NIU was one of our tougher MAC games and was much tougher than Illinois, lol.

I think we have one of the best secondaries in the MAC and it might be THE best - but our pass rush seems to have been regressing over the past 5-6 years, and the last couple years especially we get nowhere near enough pressure on the QB. Most of them can knit a sweater in the pocket while waiting for someone to get open against NIU. Nobody can cover receivers that long and certainly not somebody like Davis.

(07-08-2017 02:25 PM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 02:19 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I'll admit that the USF game was downright embarrassing. Hare got injured in that game but we weren't doing much even with him in there. And the defense looked like it had no idea what it was doing, almost as bad as the Boise State game. It still remains to be seen whether Carey can come up with a reasonably good defense.

USF does that against most teams. Hell, they scored 35 on Florida State, 52 on Navy and 46 on South Carolina.

That Boise game from 2015 though? That was embarrassing.

Embarrassing is generous. There is no word in English for that game.

Seems like WMU should have been prepared for Maddie being a dual threat since every QB we've had for about 10 years has been a dual threat. It's true you wouldn't have had much film though.

(07-08-2017 01:21 PM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  Three G5s opponents, and their vaunted D gave up 130 pts to them. 43 pts a game.

Western played two P5's and a very good G5, gave up 62. 21 ppg.

Would exceptional if you were playing hoops.

(07-08-2017 11:41 AM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:59 AM)Stampede your face!! Wrote:  This whole thread is about predictions. WMU dominated the league last year, and yes, while we lost Terrell and our 3 starting receivers, we return as much talent, if not more than anyone. The other teams in the West have to close a big gap. And I don't see how they have done that. So as far as predicting goes, I think WMU should be picked first in the West.

Will they win it? Who knows?

Haven't we seen this love for Toledo enough over the years? And haven't we seen, while they are good every year, they just quite don't get it done.

Ask and ye shall receive.

Toledo is always the favorite to win the MAC, but can never get the job done. Like WMU, they have a talented roster but lost key pieces to graduation. Losing Kareem Hunt and Michael Roberts is almost akin to losing Terell and Davis. They also replace 3 starters on the O-line. That's a lot of things that need to come together. Their defense is in better shape, but has holes in the front 7 and at safety.

I think we all know WMU's situation. Talented roster, but replacing key components. Similar to Toledo's situation, but I think what puts Toledo above WMU in most peoples' minds is coaching continuity and returning QB (and a good one at that). WMU has new coaches, new QB and new receivers. A lot of unknowns at this point, especially since it's only early July.

EMU is the darkhorse here. I like Creighton as a coach, they have a strong QB and a lot of returning starters and experience. The question is, do they have enough talent and depth on their roster to compete for a championship? And I'm not sure that they do.

NIU is an unknown. They seem to have been on the decline the past few years, but they have some really good players. If they find a QB that works for them, this could be a dangerous team. I don't believe they have the defense to win a championship though.

CMU is more of the same, every year. Average talent across the board. Replacing Rush at QB will be interesting. OL returns everyone, but they were trash last year. Defense losses key players in the "middle", at DT, MLB and safety. If CMU doesn't get to 8 wins this year, they never will under Bono. 11 of their 12 starters on offense and 5 of 12 on defense (entire secondary) are going to be seniors. It's now or never for the chimps. But all signs point to them landing in the same place as the last 5 years...smack dab in the middle.

Ball State is still in rebuild mode. I like what Mike Neu did with an inferior roster last year, but couldn't catch a lot of breaks. James Gilbert is a legit RB. Unfortunately the front 7 on defense was decimated by graduation. Neu has improved their recruiting, which will make a difference as it seems like their roster is perennially undersized, especially in the trenches. Playing in the tough MAC West will make a rebuild even more of a challenge.


Predicted order of finish:
1a. Western Michigan
1b. Toledo
3. Eastern Michigan
4. Northern Illinois
5. Central Michigan
6. Ball State

I agree with your views.

Very hard to predict the MAC West because of the big losses at WMU and UT. Lot of MAC West players drafted by the NFL.

As far as EMU, we seem laser like focused on rebuilding an OL which took big loses to graduation.

To date, it doesn't seem that EMU has replaced our two very fine OT, Wylie and Gardner. Coming out of spring ball our DL was far ahead of our OL.

Otherwise, we feel fine even we have definite losses, beside the OTs and Pat O'Connor. We lost our excellent punter who is a graduate transfer.

Otherwise, the EMU seems pretty well balanced (except OT). We feel really good at QB, RB, DL, LB, DB, etc.

We have a new offensive coordinator and expect more from him than his predecessor. Our DC had a big year last year.

We don't seem to recruit really well which means we have cycle through more and more players to find those who can play at this level.

Kind of an "Analyst's point": Roback plays as well as the OL plays. When he is hurried, he is mistake prone and will toss the ball up for grabs.

Bottom line: IF the OL plays well, EMU will be a competitive MAC West which won't be as dominant as in the recent past. Team seems pretty well balanced on both sides of the ball.

Looking at schedules, here's what I think will happen:

WEST
1. Toledo: 9-3 (6-2)
2. WMU: 8-4 (6-2)
3. NIU: 8-4 (5-3)
4. EMU: 5-7 (3-5)
5. CMU: 4-8 (3-5)
6. Ball St.: 3-9 (2-6)

Toledo beats WMU in the finale to exact revenge and win the West. I like EMU as a dark horse but they might have a very tough MAC schedule. I just don't see it happening for them.

EAST
1. Miami 9-3 (8-0)
2. Ohio 9-3 (7-1)
3. BGSU: 4-8 (3-5)
4. Akron: 3-9 (2-6)
5. Buffalo: 3-9 (1-7)
6. Kent St.: 2-10 (1-7)

Miami and Ohio roll through a weak East Division. Redhawks have an extremely favorable schedule and squeak out a close one in Athens to take the West.

Chuck Martin takes over at Notre Dame after Brian Kelly gets fired, one week before the MAC Championships game and the Rockets win in a blowout.

I have a weird feeling that EMU is only going to win 2 games this year.

(07-10-2017 10:09 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  I have a weird feeling that EMU is only going to win 2 games this year.

And I believe Vegas set their win total at 4.5...who's with me?

CMU win total is 7. Let's parlay the unders on these two Michigan MAC teams!!

(07-10-2017 10:14 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  CMU win total is 7. Let's parlay the unders on these two Michigan MAC teams!!

OMG, I'll take the under on CMU's win total with you.

(07-10-2017 10:11 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 10:09 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  I have a weird feeling that EMU is only going to win 2 games this year.

And I believe Vegas set their win total at 4.5...who's with me?

EMU has a tough OOC schedule and then goes into the meat grinder called, "MAC West".

I don't consider (@Kentucky, @Army and @Rutgers) a way to 'fat up the W total. Kentucky is a tough SEC team. Army has been playing better and that game is at West Point. Rutgers IS the huge September game. A W would be a big plus and could propel EMU to 6 or more Ws.

EMU could go 1 - 3 OOC and then that means 5 wins is probably their 'ceiling.'

(07-10-2017 10:55 AM)emu steve Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 10:11 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 10:09 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  I have a weird feeling that EMU is only going to win 2 games this year.

And I believe Vegas set their win total at 4.5...who's with me?

EMU has a tough OOC schedule and then goes into the meat grinder called, "MAC West".

I don't consider (@Kentucky, @Army and @Rutgers) a way to 'fat up the W total. Kentucky is a tough SEC team. Army has been playing better and that game is at West Point. Rutgers IS the huge September game. A W would be a big plus and could propel EMU to 6 or more Ws.

EMU could go 1 - 3 OOC and then that means 5 wins is probably their 'ceiling.'

I agree that the OOC and 1st couple of games of conference play are huge for EMU. If they can't get more than 2 or 3 wins out of their first 6 games, it seems like the sort of thing where it could get difficult to find any additional wins.

(07-10-2017 12:02 PM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 10:55 AM)emu steve Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 10:11 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 10:09 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  I have a weird feeling that EMU is only going to win 2 games this year.

And I believe Vegas set their win total at 4.5...who's with me?

EMU has a tough OOC schedule and then goes into the meat grinder called, "MAC West".

I don't consider (@Kentucky, @Army and @Rutgers) a way to 'fat up the W total. Kentucky is a tough SEC team. Army has been playing better and that game is at West Point. Rutgers IS the huge September game. A W would be a big plus and could propel EMU to 6 or more Ws.

EMU could go 1 - 3 OOC and then that means 5 wins is probably their 'ceiling.'

I agree that the OOC and 1st couple of games of conference play are huge for EMU. If they can't get more than 2 or 3 wins out of their first 6 games, it seems like the sort of thing where it could get difficult to find any additional wins.

I hope EMU finishes lower than WMU, but higher than CMU in the MAC West. LOL, Go Eagles

(07-10-2017 10:09 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  I have a weird feeling that EMU is only going to win 2 games this year.

Now, if Roback is out for the entire season with an early injury, all bets are off.

(07-10-2017 12:18 PM)Potro Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 12:02 PM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 10:55 AM)emu steve Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 10:11 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 10:09 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  I have a weird feeling that EMU is only going to win 2 games this year.

And I believe Vegas set their win total at 4.5...who's with me?

EMU has a tough OOC schedule and then goes into the meat grinder called, "MAC West".

I don't consider (@Kentucky, @Army and @Rutgers) a way to 'fat up the W total. Kentucky is a tough SEC team. Army has been playing better and that game is at West Point. Rutgers IS the huge September game. A W would be a big plus and could propel EMU to 6 or more Ws.

EMU could go 1 - 3 OOC and then that means 5 wins is probably their 'ceiling.'

I agree that the OOC and 1st couple of games of conference play are huge for EMU. If they can't get more than 2 or 3 wins out of their first 6 games, it seems like the sort of thing where it could get difficult to find any additional wins.

I hope EMU finishes lower than WMU, but higher than CMU in the MAC West. LOL, Go Eagles

Same; I can't help but root for someone who has been down for so long. But they are in our division...