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And if teams pack the box we should be able to throw. I know we will be able to stretch the field edge to edge and that will help. If Lester and Morehead have input into the O, you got to believe the tight end will be a factor. Also any Lester team is going to have 2-3 shots per game for the home run.

Lastly, this Oline and backs are good enough to get into favorable 3rd down situations where the percentages are favorable, regardless of the D strategy. And they will beat you down by sometime in the third quarter. The D can keep us in the game until then.

I will concede game speed timing between the new QB and receivers will take time to develop. But both Flacco and Wassink are going into their third season, they are not as wet behind the ears as we might think. But even if the situation is not ideal we are still contenders.

(07-07-2017 06:16 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 05:59 PM)Stampede your face!! Wrote:  Until a team in the West shows it can stop Western's running game, I am not that worried. Johns isn't a dummy. He will make those teams stop the ground game. And they won't.

NIU had the top MAC rushing game last season. Would that logic apply to them?

Nope. Cause your defense sucks.

(07-08-2017 07:51 AM)Stampede your face!! Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 06:16 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 05:59 PM)Stampede your face!! Wrote:  Until a team in the West shows it can stop Western's running game, I am not that worried. Johns isn't a dummy. He will make those teams stop the ground game. And they won't.

NIU had the top MAC rushing game last season. Would that logic apply to them?

Nope. Cause your defense sucks.

Early in the season NIUs defense was adjusting to the new coordinator and was pretty bad. But they finished strong. Of their last 5 games, 4 were common opponents(buff,tol,emu,Kent) of WMU. The results? Combined points give up: NIU 76-WMU 87. Yards NIU 1,644 WMU 1,478. More interesting is the two quality opponents in EMU and Toledo to whom WMU gave up a combined 66 pts to while NIU only surrendered 48.

(07-08-2017 08:51 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 07:51 AM)Stampede your face!! Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 06:16 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 05:59 PM)Stampede your face!! Wrote:  Until a team in the West shows it can stop Western's running game, I am not that worried. Johns isn't a dummy. He will make those teams stop the ground game. And they won't.

NIU had the top MAC rushing game last season. Would that logic apply to them?

Nope. Cause your defense sucks.

Early in the season NIUs defense was adjusting to the new coordinator and was pretty bad. But they finished strong. Of their last 5 games, 4 were common opponents(buff,tol,emu,Kent) of WMU. The results? Combined points give up: NIU 76-WMU 87. Yards NIU 1,644 WMU 1,478. More interesting is the two quality opponents in EMU and Toledo to whom WMU gave up a combined 66 pts to while NIU only surrendered 48.

Let's recap. NIU went triple OT with an awful CMU team. Western hammered them. You lost at home to UT, Western beat them by 3TDs. Eastern a yawner for Western, for you a down to the wire nail biter. Graham is terrible. If a QB can't execute the jet sweep Cary is lost.

Your vaunted D gave up 30ppg, WMU 19ppg.........which is why you cherry picked 4 games and came up with the excuse "we were adjusting" to the new D.C.

Now that Illinois is officially bankrupt, when does NIU have their Going out of Business sale? Watched that presentation by your delusional AD. So when are you guys joining the Big 12?

Edit: Dip beat me to the punch...lol

Not sure what you're trying to argue here. That NIU was better than WMU last season? That NIU should be MAC favorites this year?

If those stats are correct, and I trust that they are, let's look at NIU's MAC slate last year...

3 losses: WMU, CMU and Toledo. OT win against EMU. 7-point win against Ball State. 10-point win against Kent. Blowout wins over the two worst teams in the conference, BGSU and Buffalo. That all adds up to a solid middle-of-the-pack season. Congratulations.

This year for NIU, QB is an unknown, key losses at RB, OL, WR, DL and LB. The only really solid group is DB, although OL and RB should also be good.

NIU success last year, especially in the running game, came from Anthony Maddie (79.7 YPG, 6.8 YPC).

Just as WMU's season hinges on the QB position, the same is true for NIU. CMU too for that matter.

NIU was pretty bad last year while WMU had an all-time Mac season. I'm not comparing the teams overall quality. That would be foolish. I'm not even saying the defense was equal. Just replying to the comment that NIU's defense was terrible. Their defense was decent towards the end of the year. At least relative to wmus. Even toss in CMU and ball. NIU gave up 21(in regulation) to CMU and 24 to ball. WMU 10, 20. Add the fact that wmus offense was way better than NIUs and a big help to the bronco defense, I'm not sure how in some people eyes WMU has a dominant defense coming in 2017 while NIUs will suck. Statistically it doesn't look like a big difference.

NIU gave up 30 a game, WMU 19. "Statistically" that's a big difference

WMU returns 9 starters on defense (going by cotton bowl depth chart), hence why we all believe they will be very good this year.

NIU returns 7 or something like that, but lost key players in the front 7 and will need to rebuild. DE Ladell Fleming, DT Corey Thomas, DE Austin Smaha, DT Mario Jones, LB Jamaal Payton, LB Sean Folliard, LB Renard Cheren. That's a big blow to talent and depth in the front 7. Hard to expect an improved defense after all those guys lost to graduation.

(07-08-2017 10:32 AM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  NIU gave up 30 a game, WMU 19. "Statistically" that's a big difference

I find it best to use common opponents for comparison. It's not really fair to use OOC results because the quality of opponent can very so much and I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing about the quality of OOC opponents in 2016. WMU had 6 common opponents with NIU last season. CMU,emu,ball,Kent,buff, and tol. WMU gave up 116 pts total. 19ppg. NIU gave up 129 pts or 21 ppg. You can call it cherry picking if you want. It's just common sense when comparing teams.

This whole thread is about predictions. WMU dominated the league last year, and yes, while we lost Terrell and our 3 starting receivers, we return as much talent, if not more than anyone. The other teams in the West have to close a big gap. And I don't see how they have done that. So as far as predicting goes, I think WMU should be picked first in the West.

Will they win it? Who knows?

Haven't we seen this love for Toledo enough over the years? And haven't we seen, while they are good every year, they just quite don't get it done.

(07-08-2017 10:59 AM)Stampede your face!! Wrote:  This whole thread is about predictions. WMU dominated the league last year, and yes, while we lost Terrell and our 3 starting receivers, we return as much talent, if not more than anyone. The other teams in the West have to close a big gap. And I don't see how they have done that. So as far as predicting goes, I think WMU should be picked first in the West.

Will they win it? Who knows?

Haven't we seen this love for Toledo enough over the years? And haven't we seen, while they are good every year, they just quite don't get it done.

Without a doubt the broncos are at the top of the conference in talent. Tranquil may be the best defender in the MAC in 17. But that QB situation. We will have to just wait and see.

(07-08-2017 10:59 AM)Stampede your face!! Wrote:  This whole thread is about predictions. WMU dominated the league last year, and yes, while we lost Terrell and our 3 starting receivers, we return as much talent, if not more than anyone. The other teams in the West have to close a big gap. And I don't see how they have done that. So as far as predicting goes, I think WMU should be picked first in the West.

Will they win it? Who knows?

Haven't we seen this love for Toledo enough over the years? And haven't we seen, while they are good every year, they just quite don't get it done.

Ask and ye shall receive.

Toledo is always the favorite to win the MAC, but can never get the job done. Like WMU, they have a talented roster but lost key pieces to graduation. Losing Kareem Hunt and Michael Roberts is almost akin to losing Terell and Davis. They also replace 3 starters on the O-line. That's a lot of things that need to come together. Their defense is in better shape, but has holes in the front 7 and at safety.

I think we all know WMU's situation. Talented roster, but replacing key components. Similar to Toledo's situation, but I think what puts Toledo above WMU in most peoples' minds is coaching continuity and returning QB (and a good one at that). WMU has new coaches, new QB and new receivers. A lot of unknowns at this point, especially since it's only early July.

EMU is the darkhorse here. I like Creighton as a coach, they have a strong QB and a lot of returning starters and experience. The question is, do they have enough talent and depth on their roster to compete for a championship? And I'm not sure that they do.

NIU is an unknown. They seem to have been on the decline the past few years, but they have some really good players. If they find a QB that works for them, this could be a dangerous team. I don't believe they have the defense to win a championship though.

CMU is more of the same, every year. Average talent across the board. Replacing Rush at QB will be interesting. OL returns everyone, but they were trash last year. Defense losses key players in the "middle", at DT, MLB and safety. If CMU doesn't get to 8 wins this year, they never will under Bono. 11 of their 12 starters on offense and 5 of 12 on defense (entire secondary) are going to be seniors. It's now or never for the chimps. But all signs point to them landing in the same place as the last 5 years...smack dab in the middle.

Ball State is still in rebuild mode. I like what Mike Neu did with an inferior roster last year, but couldn't catch a lot of breaks. James Gilbert is a legit RB. Unfortunately the front 7 on defense was decimated by graduation. Neu has improved their recruiting, which will make a difference as it seems like their roster is perennially undersized, especially in the trenches. Playing in the tough MAC West will make a rebuild even more of a challenge.


Predicted order of finish:
1a. Western Michigan
1b. Toledo
3. Eastern Michigan
4. Northern Illinois
5. Central Michigan
6. Ball State

(07-08-2017 10:46 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:32 AM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  NIU gave up 30 a game, WMU 19. "Statistically" that's a big difference

I find it best to use common opponents for comparison. It's not really fair to use OOC results because the quality of opponent can very so much and I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing about the quality of OOC opponents in 2016. WMU had 6 common opponents with NIU last season. CMU,emu,ball,Kent,buff, and tol. WMU gave up 116 pts total. 19ppg. NIU gave up 129 pts or 21 ppg. You can call it cherry picking if you want. It's just common sense when comparing teams.

You like the common opponents because it fits your narrative. WMU OOC Oponents were GA Southern, NW, Illinois, and NC Central. You had 3 G5s and a MVC team. Not seeing anything all that difficult. I called it cherry picking cause that's exactly what u did.

(07-08-2017 12:03 PM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:46 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:32 AM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  NIU gave up 30 a game, WMU 19. "Statistically" that's a big difference

I find it best to use common opponents for comparison. It's not really fair to use OOC results because the quality of opponent can very so much and I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing about the quality of OOC opponents in 2016. WMU had 6 common opponents with NIU last season. CMU,emu,ball,Kent,buff, and tol. WMU gave up 116 pts total. 19ppg. NIU gave up 129 pts or 21 ppg. You can call it cherry picking if you want. It's just common sense when comparing teams.

You like the common opponents because it fits your narrative. WMU OOC Oponents were GA Southern, NW, Illinois, and NC Central. You had 3 G5s and a MVC team. Not seeing anything all that difficult. I called it cherry picking cause that's exactly what u did.

I think you're going to lose support even on your own message board when saying common opponents isn't the best measure. Especially with a half seasons worth of games. But still, Your OOC FBS opponents sagarin composite was 84. NIU's was 46. Pretty big difference. WMUs defense was better, just not by the leaps and bounds some claim.

(07-08-2017 10:46 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:32 AM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  NIU gave up 30 a game, WMU 19. "Statistically" that's a big difference

I find it best to use common opponents for comparison. It's not really fair to use OOC results because the quality of opponent can very so much and I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing about the quality of OOC opponents in 2016. WMU had 6 common opponents with NIU last season. CMU,emu,ball,Kent,buff, and tol. WMU gave up 116 pts total. 19ppg. NIU gave up 129 pts or 21 ppg. You can call it cherry picking if you want. It's just common sense when comparing teams.

The truth is, once you are a couple TDs ahead, as WMU often was, the D can kind of sit back and let the opponent run time of the clock for a couple series. Pretty soon it's late in the game and basically over. So D stats can be deceptive that way.

(07-08-2017 12:17 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 12:03 PM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:46 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:32 AM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  NIU gave up 30 a game, WMU 19. "Statistically" that's a big difference

I find it best to use common opponents for comparison. It's not really fair to use OOC results because the quality of opponent can very so much and I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing about the quality of OOC opponents in 2016. WMU had 6 common opponents with NIU last season. CMU,emu,ball,Kent,buff, and tol. WMU gave up 116 pts total. 19ppg. NIU gave up 129 pts or 21 ppg. You can call it cherry picking if you want. It's just common sense when comparing teams.

You like the common opponents because it fits your narrative. WMU OOC Oponents were GA Southern, NW, Illinois, and NC Central. You had 3 G5s and a MVC team. Not seeing anything all that difficult. I called it cherry picking cause that's exactly what u did.

I think you're going to lose support even on your own message board when saying common opponents isn't the best measure. Especially with a half seasons worth of games. But still, Your OOC FBS opponents sagarin composite was 84. NIU's was 46. Pretty big difference. WMUs defense was better, just not by the leaps and bounds some claim.

USF, WYOMING, and SDSU were some good Offenses.

Three G5s opponents, and their vaunted D gave up 130 pts to them. 43 pts a game.

Western played two P5's and a very good G5, gave up 62. 21 ppg.

(07-08-2017 12:03 PM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:46 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-08-2017 10:32 AM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  NIU gave up 30 a game, WMU 19. "Statistically" that's a big difference

I find it best to use common opponents for comparison. It's not really fair to use OOC results because the quality of opponent can very so much and I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing about the quality of OOC opponents in 2016. WMU had 6 common opponents with NIU last season. CMU,emu,ball,Kent,buff, and tol. WMU gave up 116 pts total. 19ppg. NIU gave up 129 pts or 21 ppg. You can call it cherry picking if you want. It's just common sense when comparing teams.

You like the common opponents because it fits your narrative. WMU OOC Oponents were GA Southern, NW, Illinois, and NC Central. You had 3 G5s and a MVC team. Not seeing anything all that difficult. I called it cherry picking cause that's exactly what u did.

The G5s were Wyoming, SDSU, and USF. Their Sagarin ratings averaged 75.5, whereas NW, Illinois, and Ga Southern averaged 65.9. Almost a 10 point difference. And of course Western Illinois is much better than NC Central, whoever that is. USF was 11-2 and SDSU was 11-3.

And WMU didn't win by 3 TDs, it was 15 points, closer to 2 TDs. And never led by more than that. And NIU's running game had more yards and more yards per carry, even if you exclude Maddie.

You only won against EMU by 14, so that was hardly dominating, and at home, where we played them on the road.

Cary scheduled SDS, USF, WY and W IL with the idea he could start 4-0. He started 0-4. NIU was 1-6 until you finally got to the cream puff portion of your schedule where you barely salvaged 4 more wins.

WIU went 6-5. NC Central went 9-3 and finished 19th in the FCS coaches poll. I will concede that NIU's other OOC opponents were better on average. But getting blown out by USF isn't better than beating TWO Big 10 teams, regardless of which teams they were.

I also don't know where you are getting these statistics.

2016 stats:
WMU - 228.1 RYPG
NIU - 239.8 RYPG

If you subtract Maddie's 79.7 RYPG....that's 160.1. Definitely not more than WMU. You take out Maddie's YPC, NIU had 4.97 YPC, which is lower than (although comparable to) WMU's 5.04.

The largest margin in the WMU-Toledo game was in the 4th quarter, when WMU was winning 48 to 21, a margin of 27.