(06-03-2017 08:17 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 07:53 AM)jtwvu87 Wrote:  I agree totally with every post on this thread. lol. All stars shine brighter b4 it goes supernova; as will the Big XII conference in the near future. As the GOR draws near, the Big XII will be no more & my Mountaineers will have no conference home. I know the ACC TV revenues R about 2 skyrocket with the new network deal; just wishing WVU was in the ACC. It will never happen. Anyway, I should not have posted this here. Y'all can delete it if u like..Sorry

FWIW, I'm pretty sure WVU will end up OK - one way or another. I don't think that you will be stranded like UConn.

Should the B12 collapse I think WV will find a spot in either the ACC or the SEC. Their athletic product is to good to leave behind. They would add value to the rivalry aspect of either conference.

(06-03-2017 09:04 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 08:17 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 07:53 AM)jtwvu87 Wrote:  I agree totally with every post on this thread. lol. All stars shine brighter b4 it goes supernova; as will the Big XII conference in the near future. As the GOR draws near, the Big XII will be no more & my Mountaineers will have no conference home. I know the ACC TV revenues R about 2 skyrocket with the new network deal; just wishing WVU was in the ACC. It will never happen. Anyway, I should not have posted this here. Y'all can delete it if u like..Sorry

FWIW, I'm pretty sure WVU will end up OK - one way or another. I don't think that you will be stranded like UConn.

Should the B12 collapse I think WV will find a spot in either the ACC or the SEC. Their athletic product is to good to leave behind. They would add value to the rivalry aspect of either conference.

Yeah, right. WVU is so valuable yet they were spurned for decades by the ACC and the SEC. Nothing has changed.

(06-03-2017 09:04 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 08:17 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 07:53 AM)jtwvu87 Wrote:  I agree totally with every post on this thread. lol. All stars shine brighter b4 it goes supernova; as will the Big XII conference in the near future. As the GOR draws near, the Big XII will be no more & my Mountaineers will have no conference home. I know the ACC TV revenues R about 2 skyrocket with the new network deal; just wishing WVU was in the ACC. It will never happen. Anyway, I should not have posted this here. Y'all can delete it if u like..Sorry

FWIW, I'm pretty sure WVU will end up OK - one way or another. I don't think that you will be stranded like UConn.

Should the B12 collapse I think WV will find a spot in either the ACC or the SEC. Their athletic product is to good to leave behind. They would add value to the rivalry aspect of either conference.

It would have to be in the SEC.

(06-03-2017 10:22 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 09:04 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 08:17 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 07:53 AM)jtwvu87 Wrote:  I agree totally with every post on this thread. lol. All stars shine brighter b4 it goes supernova; as will the Big XII conference in the near future. As the GOR draws near, the Big XII will be no more & my Mountaineers will have no conference home. I know the ACC TV revenues R about 2 skyrocket with the new network deal; just wishing WVU was in the ACC. It will never happen. Anyway, I should not have posted this here. Y'all can delete it if u like..Sorry

FWIW, I'm pretty sure WVU will end up OK - one way or another. I don't think that you will be stranded like UConn.

Should the B12 collapse I think WV will find a spot in either the ACC or the SEC. Their athletic product is to good to leave behind. They would add value to the rivalry aspect of either conference.

Yeah, right. WVU is so valuable yet they were spurned for decades by the ACC and the SEC. Nothing has changed.

Actually, a whole lot has changed. VT, Miami, BC, Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville has changed the power and influence that the Carolina schools once yielded. You get schools like Clemson and FSU who are seeking fb clout, along with schools that travel well and WV becomes a no brainer. The question is, does the newbies want to associate with WV as a conference mate? I think they will.

(06-03-2017 08:17 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 07:53 AM)jtwvu87 Wrote:  I agree totally with every post on this thread. lol. All stars shine brighter b4 it goes supernova; as will the Big XII conference in the near future. As the GOR draws near, the Big XII will be no more & my Mountaineers will have no conference home. I know the ACC TV revenues R about 2 skyrocket with the new network deal; just wishing WVU was in the ACC. It will never happen. Anyway, I should not have posted this here. Y'all can delete it if u like..Sorry

FWIW, I'm pretty sure WVU will end up OK - one way or another. I don't think that you will be stranded like UConn.

From what I've read, I wouldn't rule out WVU to the ACC just yet... There are scenarios...

(06-03-2017 12:11 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 10:22 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 09:04 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 08:17 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 07:53 AM)jtwvu87 Wrote:  I agree totally with every post on this thread. lol. All stars shine brighter b4 it goes supernova; as will the Big XII conference in the near future. As the GOR draws near, the Big XII will be no more & my Mountaineers will have no conference home. I know the ACC TV revenues R about 2 skyrocket with the new network deal; just wishing WVU was in the ACC. It will never happen. Anyway, I should not have posted this here. Y'all can delete it if u like..Sorry

FWIW, I'm pretty sure WVU will end up OK - one way or another. I don't think that you will be stranded like UConn.

Should the B12 collapse I think WV will find a spot in either the ACC or the SEC. Their athletic product is to good to leave behind. They would add value to the rivalry aspect of either conference.

Yeah, right. WVU is so valuable yet they were spurned for decades by the ACC and the SEC. Nothing has changed.

Actually, a whole lot has changed. VT, Miami, BC, Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville has changed the power and influence that the Carolina schools once yielded. You get schools like Clemson and FSU who are seeking fb clout, along with schools that travel well and WV becomes a no brainer. The question is, does the newbies want to associate with WV as a conference mate? I think they will.

I don't think you'd ever get a majority vote for WVU but this wouldn't be a majority vote situation. I think it takes something like 75%. You don't remember how hard a time Va Tech had getting in and they were a more logical addition than WVU.

(06-03-2017 12:35 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 12:11 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 10:22 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 09:04 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 08:17 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  FWIW, I'm pretty sure WVU will end up OK - one way or another. I don't think that you will be stranded like UConn.

Should the B12 collapse I think WV will find a spot in either the ACC or the SEC. Their athletic product is to good to leave behind. They would add value to the rivalry aspect of either conference.

Yeah, right. WVU is so valuable yet they were spurned for decades by the ACC and the SEC. Nothing has changed.

Actually, a whole lot has changed. VT, Miami, BC, Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville has changed the power and influence that the Carolina schools once yielded. You get schools like Clemson and FSU who are seeking fb clout, along with schools that travel well and WV becomes a no brainer. The question is, does the newbies want to associate with WV as a conference mate? I think they will.

I don't think you'd ever get a majority vote for WVU but this wouldn't be a majority vote situation. I think it takes something like 75%. You don't remember how hard a time Va Tech had getting in and they were a more logical addition than WVU.

LOL, Im a Syracuse fan, of course I remember how VT got in. My point is that WV would have a lot more support now than they have ever had before. Im not saying they would get in, but things are definitly trending in their favor.

(06-03-2017 12:45 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 12:35 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 12:11 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 10:22 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 09:04 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Should the B12 collapse I think WV will find a spot in either the ACC or the SEC. Their athletic product is to good to leave behind. They would add value to the rivalry aspect of either conference.

Yeah, right. WVU is so valuable yet they were spurned for decades by the ACC and the SEC. Nothing has changed.

Actually, a whole lot has changed. VT, Miami, BC, Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville has changed the power and influence that the Carolina schools once yielded. You get schools like Clemson and FSU who are seeking fb clout, along with schools that travel well and WV becomes a no brainer. The question is, does the newbies want to associate with WV as a conference mate? I think they will.

I don't think you'd ever get a majority vote for WVU but this wouldn't be a majority vote situation. I think it takes something like 75%. You don't remember how hard a time Va Tech had getting in and they were a more logical addition than WVU.

LOL, Im a Syracuse fan, of course I remember how VT got in. My point is that WV would have a lot more support now than they have ever had before. Im not saying they would get in, but things are definitly trending in their favor.

Do you remember the part about Va Tech having to muster the political resources to get the Virginia legislature to force U.Va. to vote for Virginia Tech?

And what, pray tell, is trending in WVU's direction other than the nostalgia of some old Big East fans? Do you really think BC would vote for WVU? For that matter, would Syracuse? What's in it for Miami?

Do you realize that WV has only a little more than half the population of Connecticut? Not that U.Conn is getting in, either. Population wise, you can make a far better case for Cincy than WVU, not that they're getting an invite.

(06-03-2017 01:51 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 12:45 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 12:35 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 12:11 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 10:22 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  Yeah, right. WVU is so valuable yet they were spurned for decades by the ACC and the SEC. Nothing has changed.

Actually, a whole lot has changed. VT, Miami, BC, Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville has changed the power and influence that the Carolina schools once yielded. You get schools like Clemson and FSU who are seeking fb clout, along with schools that travel well and WV becomes a no brainer. The question is, does the newbies want to associate with WV as a conference mate? I think they will.

I don't think you'd ever get a majority vote for WVU but this wouldn't be a majority vote situation. I think it takes something like 75%. You don't remember how hard a time Va Tech had getting in and they were a more logical addition than WVU.

LOL, Im a Syracuse fan, of course I remember how VT got in. My point is that WV would have a lot more support now than they have ever had before. Im not saying they would get in, but things are definitly trending in their favor.

Do you remember the part about Va Tech having to muster the political resources to get the Virginia legislature to force U.Va. to vote for Virginia Tech?

And what, pray tell, is trending in WVU's direction other than the nostalgia of some old Big East fans? Do you really think BC would vote for WVU? For that matter, would Syracuse? What's in it for Miami?

Do you realize that WV has only a little more than half the population of Connecticut? Not that U.Conn is getting in, either. Population wise, you can make a far better case for Cincy than WVU, not that they're getting an invite.

Those questions all depend on who else is available. I think schools like SU, VT, Pitt and Miami like paying WV. So does Louisville. I think WV gets support from other schools like Clemson and FSU. The point that still remains is that a lot has indeed changed in the ACC and WV has a lot better chance now than ever before.

Syracuse would vote for WVU in most scenarios. It is a driveable game and there is history going back to the 1950s.

(06-03-2017 03:05 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 01:51 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  ...what, pray tell, is trending in WVU's direction other than the nostalgia of some old Big East fans? Do you really think BC would vote for WVU? For that matter, would Syracuse? What's in it for Miami?

Do you realize that WV has only a little more than half the population of Connecticut? Not that U.Conn is getting in, either. Population wise, you can make a far better case for Cincy than WVU, not that they're getting an invite.

Those questions all depend on who else is available. I think schools like SU, VT, Pitt and Miami like paying WV. So does Louisville. I think WV gets support from other schools like Clemson and FSU. The point that still remains is that a lot has indeed changed in the ACC and WV has a lot better chance now than ever before.

Why could WVU get in?

Average home attendance, 2016
West Virginia 57,583 (7 games)
Cincinnati 33,585 (7 games)
UConn 26,796 (7 games)

Ohio is the 7th most populous state in the country.
I have been for years a big supporter of West Virginia as a member of the ACC because of their football prowess, but from what I understand WVU to the ACC is just not in the cards.

Revenue is quantity * price

Quantity is determined by the number of people w/ access to the programming * the percent of people w/o anything better to do w/ their time/money than watch/pay for the program.

Price is determine where revenue is maximized, and it is a factor of supply and demand.

Since telecommunications tech have rendered incremental access to programs almost costless, the only real constraint/variable to revenue is fan interest. Geography, except to the extent that it impacts fan interest, is meaningless. That's why there isn't a strong correlation between home market size and media value.

Yes, there are carriage rates that are paid on a per subscriber basis, but they're a result of a weighted average that approximates the negotiating partys' best guess of the market value. A school is Ohio isn't worth more than a school in North Dakota because it's closer to a big market. It would only be worth more if it invokes a stronger fan interest.

WVU draws home crowds nearly as big as Cincinnati and UConn put together.
That said, Cincinnati has several things going to it:
1. Populous state = potential for growth of the fan base if it was P5
2. Rich recruiting territory = immediate benefit

(06-03-2017 06:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  WVU draws home crowds nearly as big as Cincinnati and UConn put together.
That said, Cincinnati has several things going to it:
1. Populous state = potential for growth of the fan base if it was P5
2. Rich recruiting territory = immediate benefit

UC was in a power conference, and they did quite well competitively speaking when they were. As such, I think that was very close to the max that they're going to be from a fan size perspective.

And the rich recruiting argument is extremely true. The scope of my point was purely TV money. However, recruiting location isn't enough in and of itself. Otherwise Tulane would be gold.
(Nola area is the most fertile cfb recruiting area in the nation as measured by per capita NFL players, and it has a very strong absolute number as well)

EDIT: I think that the B12 should add UC, so I am 100% not anti-UC, and I am not anti-UC in a P5. I want to make those facts clear before anyone thinks otherwise.

(06-02-2017 10:16 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  

(06-02-2017 09:42 PM)CrazyPaco Wrote:  

(06-02-2017 08:07 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  Why am I suspicious of any numbers coming out of the Big 12?

Because they're always juiced to make themselves look better and their fans (and apparently administrators) have no idea what the numbers actually represent.

Someone on another site posted a slide from the Iowa State AD in which the B12 used the 2016 990 distributions from the other conferences vs their 2017 projected gross distribution. And then they also highlight "tier 3" rights, like the original poster, which is completely confused and suggests every other conference doesn't have similar deals (except for UT which has its special deal). They're trying really hard to show how wonderful things are in the B12. Sad.

For some reason the WVU fans have a hard time separating the tier 3 tv money from the rest of the deal and don't seem to factor all the other schools could throw on radio money that WVU fans tend to throw in with their tier 3 tv. Texas, OU & probably KU(the bball helps them a lot) get more than the tier 3 with the B1G and competitive with the SEC. The other schools probably get 2-4M a year for their tier 3 tv. Its not huge but it is something. For instance Iowa St., even though they probably get between 1.5M to 3M ( I have heard both numbers) but even if it is on the low side they have been able to get statewide carriage of their digital channel on cable. Its been nice exposure for them in the state even if it is the low number.

There is nothing wrong with the conference being positive about their distribution. They are doing well financially.

No one is getting $3-4M net for left over crap TV often referred to as "Tier 3". Maybe $1-2M, maybe, and that is for the biggest names like Oklahoma, which we discussed in the other thread on OU, is clearing $2m tops ..tops for left over TV broadcasts after the costs of production which they are saddled with. OU's total "Tier 3" deal includes everything else too. Most schools make nearly zip on these left over TV after you factor in expenses of production. That's why they're left over...no one wants them. That's why conference networks bundle all of the schools' together and still have to move more premium games to the network in order to give the network value.

Here's a correction to the inaccurate twitter pic that's been floating around:



ACC should get back to 4th place this year (not worst-case) and 3rd place next year (at or near best-case for ACC).

(06-03-2017 09:43 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here's a correction to the inaccurate twitter pic that's been floating around:



ACC should get back to 4th place this year (not worst-case) and 3rd place next year (at or near best-case for ACC).

The network projections are what, $7-8 million?

And the OB adds another ~$1.5 million?

So that's the equivalent of being +$9 million this year (moving forward in good years) or +$7.5 million (moving forward in bad years).

That would put the ACC around $31-33 million. And our only 2 realistic positive adjustments relative to the other conferences in the next 20 years are A) adding a B12 school (Texas as a partial?) and/or B) securing a better OB deal.

Personally I hope WVU ends up in the American Conference. It serves them right after how they left The Big East. It would certainly be karma considering how their band of bloggers worked churning out misinformation concerning the future of The ACC.
CJ

(06-03-2017 08:08 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 06:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  WVU draws home crowds nearly as big as Cincinnati and UConn put together.
That said, Cincinnati has several things going to it:
1. Populous state = potential for growth of the fan base if it was P5
2. Rich recruiting territory = immediate benefit

UC was in a power conference, and they did quite well competitively speaking when they were. As such, I think that was very close to the max that they're going to be from a fan size perspective.

And the rich recruiting argument is extremely true. The scope of my point was purely TV money. However, recruiting location isn't enough in and of itself. Otherwise Tulane would be gold.
(Nola area is the most fertile cfb recruiting area in the nation as measured by per capita NFL players, and it has a very strong absolute number as well)

EDIT: I think that the B12 should add UC, so I am 100% not anti-UC, and I am not anti-UC in a P5. I want to make those facts clear before anyone thinks otherwise.

Cincinnati did do well in the BE, even winning the conference on the football side ('08 & '09 outright & split in '11 & '12) against WV, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UCONN & the rest. You could make a case for either WV or Cincinnati as #16 or beyond. I would welcome either into the ACC but my personal preference would be for Cincinnati.