Here's one for Minnesota's 2nd district, which includes the southern suburbs of Mpls and the secondary metro of Rochester, Minn (home of one of the top research hospitals in the world, the Mayo Clinic).

The seat was won by a former conservative talk-radio host, with no prior experience, by 2 points over the Democratic challenger, after being held for many terms by a Republican.

Minnesota Dems (one of two states to use a different name for the state party, called the "DFL") are likely to challenge for the district seat again.

Article below is for the announcement of a high school football coach and teacher in a southern Mpls suburb, seeking the Dem endorsement.


http://www.startribune.com/south-metro-h...424096353/

Quote:A Twin Cities suburban high school football coach is picking up a political playbook and announcing his candidacy for Congress.

Jeff Erdmann, the head coach at Rosemount High School and civics teacher at the school, said he is seeking the DFL endorsement in 2018 for the Second Congressional District, where first-term Republican Jason Lewis now serves.

“I never thought I would be running for Congress,” Erdmann said in a news release issued Wednesday. “After seeing the behavior of our politicians, especially Jason Lewis, I realized that if working Americans want proper representation, then working Americans like myself need to run for office.”

The 49-year-old Erdmann added that his 27 years of teaching American government has shown him that “whether we’re Democrat or Republican, there is more that unites us than divides us,” said Erdmann.

Clinked on this one because you're talking MN congressional districts...

Lewis won, in no small part, because Angie Craig spent nearly every advertising dollar she had (which was a lot more than Lewis had) on negative ads... Weeks and weeks of "Jason Lewis is a meanie who hates women, just like Trump) meant that going into the election it was Lewis, "Not Trump", and third party.

The district might have been GOP for a long time but it's become much more purple than red. Some of that is people moving to the burbs and another part was the 2010 redistricting. It's certainly a poachable district but the Dems missed the easiest chance they've had in a long time by running an empty candidate.

The article mentioned Craig wanted to run again. So wonder who the DFL is going to end up endorsing for MN-2 in 2018.

At face value (and of course, nothing more at this time ...) I like Erdmann and what he said in the announcement.


As to your point ... Erdmann seems like (again, face value ...) a very clean cut guy. Is what he is, football coach, school teacher. So perhaps he won't do any negative stuff. But that doesn't mean third parties won't run negative ads attacking his opponents, purely as their own agenda.

I completely ignore television political ads. Don't watch them, don't listen to them. I think they're one of the biggest scams (talking money here) in modern politics.

(05-25-2017 01:17 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  The article mentioned Craig wanted to run again. So wonder who the DFL is going to end up endorsing for MN-2 in 2018.

She would be a retread candidate who is a bit to the left of the district running against someone who beat her. IOW she would be the Democrat version of Stuart Mills.

I hope they run her again. Despite running in with a ton more money and despite running against someone with virtually no campaign apparatus she lost. In two years Lewis will have more money, more connection, and be ready to run.

Quote:As to your point ... Erdmann seems like (again, face value ...) a very clean cut guy. Is what he is, football coach, school teacher. So perhaps he won't do any negative stuff.

I think Craig was clean cut and may be a nice person. Gong negative is not really about if the candidate is a jerk, it's about whether or not they have enough substance to run a positive campaign. Craig's biggest shortcoming was she had nothing good to say about herself or her vision for the district.

Quote:But that doesn't mean third parties won't run negative ads attacking his opponents, purely as their own agenda.

True enough. And honestly you can run some negative adds. But that's *all* craig ran.

And perhaps her biggest "sin" in the matter was she did not run negative add against what Lewis would do. She ran adds of quotemined and spliced material from Lewis' radio show about what he had said years ago.

(05-25-2017 01:27 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  She would be a retread candidate who is a bit to the left of the district running against someone who beat her. IOW she would be the Democrat version of Stuart Mills.

I hope they run her again. Despite running in with a ton more money and despite running against someone with virtually no campaign apparatus she lost. In two years Lewis will have more money, more connection, and be ready to run.

Really great point. And that's probably what will end up happening. Craig will throw everything she has to beat out Erdmann, while Lewis will skate through to the election.

It really does not make sense to re-run the same race as you just lost two years earlier. Reminds me of the recall election in Wisconsin. They just lost -- narrowly, but they lost -- and they get their big chance ...... and run the same guy! Guess they were hoping conservative voters were going to stay home? Lost again ...

(05-25-2017 01:27 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  I think Craig was clean cut and may be a nice person. Gong negative is not really about if the candidate is a jerk, it's about whether or not they have enough substance to run a positive campaign. Craig's biggest shortcoming was she had nothing good to say about herself or her vision for the district.

...

True enough. And honestly you can run some negative adds. But that's *all* craig ran.

And perhaps her biggest "sin" in the matter was she did not run negative add against what Lewis would do. She ran adds of quotemined and spliced material from Lewis' radio show about what he had said years ago.

Fair enough.

I hope that if it's the same election as two years ago ... at the very least, try a different playbook!

(05-25-2017 01:38 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(05-25-2017 01:27 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  She would be a retread candidate who is a bit to the left of the district running against someone who beat her. IOW she would be the Democrat version of Stuart Mills.

I hope they run her again. Despite running in with a ton more money and despite running against someone with virtually no campaign apparatus she lost. In two years Lewis will have more money, more connection, and be ready to run.

Really great point. And that's probably what will end up happening. Craig will throw everything she has to beat out Erdmann, while Lewis will skate through to the election.

It really does not make sense to re-run the same race as you just lost two years earlier. Reminds me of the recall election in Wisconsin. They just lost -- narrowly, but they lost -- and they get their big chance ...... and run the same guy! Guess they were hoping conservative voters were going to stay home? Lost again ...

(05-25-2017 01:27 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  I think Craig was clean cut and may be a nice person. Gong negative is not really about if the candidate is a jerk, it's about whether or not they have enough substance to run a positive campaign. Craig's biggest shortcoming was she had nothing good to say about herself or her vision for the district.

...

True enough. And honestly you can run some negative adds. But that's *all* craig ran.

And perhaps her biggest "sin" in the matter was she did not run negative add against what Lewis would do. She ran adds of quotemined and spliced material from Lewis' radio show about what he had said years ago.

Fair enough.

I hope that if it's the same election as two years ago ... at the very least, try a different playbook!

I just hope Mills does not run again... I like the guy but it's getting as bad and formulaic as the rocky movies. That seat could have been flipped R by the right candidate.

It's pretty evenly matched in number of voters up there, between Duluth progressives and iron range conservatives.

Isnt the next big special election coming up. Round two of that GA seat? I have read despite the Dem not cracking 50% with every GOP voter and their mother on the primary ballot, this seat is still the Dems best chance to pick one up before the 2018 general election.

(05-25-2017 04:16 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Isnt the next big special election coming up. Round two of that GA seat? I have read despite the Dem not cracking 50% with every GOP voter and their mother on the primary ballot, this seat is still the Dems best chance to pick one up before the 2018 general election.

Latest poll shows Ossoff up 51-44. This is really the only interesting seat from the early elections.

Its far more like the districts that the Dems will need to pick up if they're going to take back the house. This district looks a lot like Culburtsons, or Sessions or Freylighousens, or Issas or Rohrabachers.