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Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
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ken d Offline
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Post: #1
Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
It seems as if the selection committee, at least the versions that have existed during the short life of the CFP, have a strong preference for conference champions. How would it change the landscape if that preference were to be formalized? That is, the semifinalists are the four highest ranked champions regardless of conference. Period.

If one of them is outside the P5, so be it. How often will that happen anyway? And that team was always going to be in one of the NY6 games, so it needn't take away a slot for a P5 if that's their concern.

Would that add pressure to kill the Big 12 and go to a P4, or would it relieve the pressure? Would Notre Dame capitulate and join the ACC, or would they just accept that they won't ever be in the playoff and continue as an independent?

Would it create pressure to allow four team conference championship tournaments, and change the rules requiring two equal sized divisions? Would that be a bad thing?

Would that eliminate the need for a selection committee at all? There are plenty of other rankings that are just as good and just as unbiased.

What other unforeseen consequences might there be?
05-22-2017 01:52 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
I honestly don't think the committee wants that, nor do the conferences. Under the current structure, you do have flexibility in placing the teams. Last year, there was the Ohio State/Penn State argument, and by going the champions-only model, you create the possibility of eliminating (possibly) your best team from getting that slot. The other factor to consider is that (especially for the B1G and SEC) the conferences would love to have not just one team in the CFP, but two or more. Going the champions-only route eliminates that possibility of having more than one team in the playoff as well. Finally, with regards to Notre Dame, they would be adamantly opposed to it as well (because it would force them to join the ACC).

While good in theory, going the champions-only model causes more headaches than solutions. Quite frankly, I think the committee enjoys its flexibility (not to mention unofficially locking out the G5 from the spots). I don't see it changing anytime soon.
05-22-2017 02:02 PM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
(05-22-2017 01:52 PM)ken d Wrote:  It seems as if the selection committee, at least the versions that have existed during the short life of the CFP, have a strong preference for conference champions. How would it change the landscape if that preference were to be formalized? That is, the semifinalists are the four highest ranked champions regardless of conference. Period.

If one of them is outside the P5, so be it. How often will that happen anyway? And that team was always going to be in one of the NY6 games, so it needn't take away a slot for a P5 if that's their concern.

Would that add pressure to kill the Big 12 and go to a P4, or would it relieve the pressure? Would Notre Dame capitulate and join the ACC, or would they just accept that they won't ever be in the playoff and continue as an independent?

Would it create pressure to allow four team conference championship tournaments, and change the rules requiring two equal sized divisions? Would that be a bad thing?

Would that eliminate the need for a selection committee at all? There are plenty of other rankings that are just as good and just as unbiased.

What other unforeseen consequences might there be?

That's a tough question.

If they were to kill off the Big XII then the easy answer would be yes. Question is do you put a conference champion in the playoff who's 9-3 over a conference runner up who's 11-1?

Ideally you'd like to take the 4 best teams. Unfortunately you need to take the "politics" of the NCAA into consideration.

Imagine the outcry if you were to shut out 2 of the 5 conferences to put the 4 best in. Imagine the s**tstorm if you went to 4 conferences and shut out 1 or 2 of them to take the best 4.

Until the Big XII has gone the way of the dinosaur, the committee is a necessary evil. If it does and they downsize to 4 conferences, it's probably the safest to take the 4 champions.
05-22-2017 02:04 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
To answer your overall question, NO. The 4-team playoff in its existing form should NOT be limited to conference champions-only. I'm 100% in favor of conference champ auto-bids for the P5 in the event that the playoff expands to 8 teams, but with the current 4-team format, there's no reason to have a conference champs-only format. A 4-team playoff inherently means that you need a subjective selection committee whether you have a conference champs-only restriction or a wide open field, and I'd rather have a wide open field if you're going to go the subjective route. The TV networks agree: they WANT wild card teams in every sport at every level.

(Also note that Notre Dame by itself has more power than all of the G5 conferences combined, which means ND in and of itself can prevent a conference champs-only playoff. At the same time, the other P5 conferences aren't dumb enough to just hand ND over to the ACC and lose ground competitively to them, so the other P5 conferences WANT Notre Dame to stay independent. ESPN also isn't paying for a playoff where ND is structurally precluded from winning the national championship - that would be like Fox paying for the World Series when the Cubs are not *allowed* to win it. ESPN would just say goodbye to all of the G5 conferences even having a chance to participate in the CFP before they would sign up for a system that didn't include ND. The biggest message board fallacy that I've seen in conference realignment is the notion that Notre Dame will be "forced" to do anything. ND isn't going to be "forced" to do jacks**t in any of this - the P5 leagues outside of the ACC want ND to continue independence and the G5 have absolutely zero power combined compared to ND alone.)
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2017 02:10 PM by Frank the Tank.)
05-22-2017 02:05 PM
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ark30inf Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
It should ultimately be all FBS conference champions an two wildcards...if its a sport.

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05-22-2017 02:08 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
ND doesn't have the power you think they have. Sure they have a say and a lot more so than the whole G5 as stated. But if anything, the current playoff contract really weakened the power they had before. If the P5 want to have an auto-bid to a playoff, there is nothing ND can do about it.
Also, ND isn't going to save the ACC or make it stronger to overcome all the other conferences. It will make the ACC stronger but not as much in the overall scheme of things.
05-22-2017 02:11 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
No.

Pick the best four. Don't defer the decision to the Conferences, who can do all sorts of screwy stuff.
05-22-2017 02:13 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
P5 will never want or allow that. Why I like the four format, somebody gets left out. Even if the playoffs expanded to 8, it will never be for the conference champs. No way they want to open the door to a G5 guaranteed spot. Those 8 spots will go to the power conferences. Lets say Va Tech upset Clemson last year. The committee would have had a top 8 that reflected Clemson at #8 and Wisconson at #9 to get all five P5 in the playoffs and have a all P5 8 team playoff. 8 Teams likely ends the major bowls and probably the bowl system. Only teams truly hurt will be the G5 because the full seperation will probably occur at that point.
05-22-2017 02:19 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
(05-22-2017 02:04 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(05-22-2017 01:52 PM)ken d Wrote:  It seems as if the selection committee, at least the versions that have existed during the short life of the CFP, have a strong preference for conference champions. How would it change the landscape if that preference were to be formalized? That is, the semifinalists are the four highest ranked champions regardless of conference. Period.

If one of them is outside the P5, so be it. How often will that happen anyway? And that team was always going to be in one of the NY6 games, so it needn't take away a slot for a P5 if that's their concern.

Would that add pressure to kill the Big 12 and go to a P4, or would it relieve the pressure? Would Notre Dame capitulate and join the ACC, or would they just accept that they won't ever be in the playoff and continue as an independent?

Would it create pressure to allow four team conference championship tournaments, and change the rules requiring two equal sized divisions? Would that be a bad thing?

Would that eliminate the need for a selection committee at all? There are plenty of other rankings that are just as good and just as unbiased.

What other unforeseen consequences might there be?

That's a tough question.

If they were to kill off the Big XII then the easy answer would be yes. Question is do you put a conference champion in the playoff who's 9-3 over a conference runner up who's 11-1?

Ideally you'd like to take the 4 best teams. Unfortunately you need to take the "politics" of the NCAA into consideration.

Imagine the outcry if you were to shut out 2 of the 5 conferences to put the 4 best in. Imagine the s**tstorm if you went to 4 conferences and shut out 1 or 2 of them to take the best 4.

Until the Big XII has gone the way of the dinosaur, the committee is a necessary evil. If it does and they downsize to 4 conferences, it's probably the safest to take the 4 champions.

Yes, ideally you'd like to take the four best teams. The operative word, though, is "ideally". In practice, it is impossible to identify who those are. It always has been, and it always will. So why not try instead to give all the teams that might be among the four best the chance to play it out on the field, the way the NCAAT does? They don't always have the best four teams in the Final Four. One could argue that they almost never do. But it's hard to argue that the four best didn't have a chance to get there.

If the SEC, or B1G or any other P5 conference could have its own four team playoff, how could anyone say that one of the four best teams in the country didn't have a chance to compete for the championship? Do we really think that a fourth or fifth best team in a single conference is going to be excluded even though they are better than the best teams in all the other conferences combined?
05-22-2017 02:21 PM
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ark30inf Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
(05-22-2017 02:19 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  P5 will never want or allow that. Why I like the four format, somebody gets left out. Even if the playoffs expanded to 8, it will never be for the conference champs. No way they want to open the door to a G5 guaranteed spot. Those 8 spots will go to the power conferences. Lets say Va Tech upset Clemson last year. The committee would have had a top 8 that reflected Clemson at #8 and Wisconson at #9 to get all five P5 in the playoffs and have a all P5 8 team playoff. 8 Teams likely ends the major bowls and probably the bowl system. Only teams truly hurt will be the G5 because the full seperation will probably occur at that point.
Just because they won't allow it doesn't mean that's not how it should ultimately be...and no reason not to advocate for it.

Conference champions getting league playoff spots is the norm in sports. College football should be part of the norm in sports.
05-22-2017 02:24 PM
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Wolfman Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
I agree with Frank. The 4-team format isn't big enough to be conference champs only. In 2013 #20 Duke was playing in the ACC championship. If Florida State gets the flu, loses a player or two, or whatever, Does ACC champ Duke get in over an 11-1 Ohio State or LSU?

An alternative would be to expand the CCG to 2 rounds. However, that brings up the B12 issue again.
05-22-2017 02:24 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
(05-22-2017 02:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  ND doesn't have the power you think they have. Sure they have a say and a lot more so than the whole G5 as stated. But if anything, the current playoff contract really weakened the power they had before. If the P5 want to have an auto-bid to a playoff, there is nothing ND can do about it.
Also, ND isn't going to save the ACC or make it stronger to overcome all the other conferences. It will make the ACC stronger but not as much in the overall scheme of things.

ND actually has more power than most people here give them credit for and, more importantly, other conferences are going to make decisions based on ensuring the status quo of independence remains for the Irish.

Most people reasonably believe that Notre Dame is the single most valuable national brand in all of college football. The only other school that approaches their value as a single school is Texas. As a result, Notre Dame choosing to join a conference isn't merely a major expansion move: it's an earthquake shattering move. Why would the Big Ten have any interest in allowing the ACC to add the biggest national brand in college football and they are competing DIRECTLY in the Big Ten footprint? Likewise, why would the SEC have any interest in the ACC, who already competes directly with the SEC in many markets, add on the biggest national brand in college football? I think you're vastly underestimating how much both the Big Ten and SEC want absolutely nothing to do with ND in the ACC as a football member. There is ZERO upside for the Big Ten and SEC in that scenario. In contrast, the status quo serves them just perfectly fine. Saying that the Big Ten and SEC wouldn't care about the ACC adding ND would be like the Patriots deciding that their team is good enough to win championships as-is, so they'll just start giving away draft picks to the Jets and Dolphins. Just because the Big Ten and SEC could still maintain an advantage over the ACC even if the ACC added ND doesn't mean that the B1G and SEC would much prefer to preserve the much larger advantage that they have today.

The big change is ND made it clear that it's casting its lot with the ACC in the event that it is "forced" to join a conference, which means that the other conferences no longer have any incentive to "force" ND to do anything. That's a HUGE difference compared to the pre-CFP world where the Big Ten actually did believe that it could "force" ND to join them and even the Big 12 had delusions of grandeur of adding them. No one has those delusions any more, so they'll let the sleeping dogs lie with respect to ND's independence going forward.
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2017 02:32 PM by Frank the Tank.)
05-22-2017 02:27 PM
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Wilkie01 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
Yes, unless we go to a six or eight team playoff.

1) All P-5 conference champions and the highest ranked non conference champion for a 6 team playoff.

2) All P-5 conference champions and the 3 highest ranked non conference champions for a 8 team playoff.07-coffee3


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05-22-2017 02:31 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
I think the thing that really would change things though is if the Big 12 does implode. If that happens you have a P4. All 4 of those are going to want a seat in the playoff. And yes, that would mean more to them than ND joining a conference.
05-22-2017 02:33 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
(05-22-2017 02:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  ESPN also isn't paying for a playoff where ND is structurally precluded from winning the national championship - that would be like Fox paying for the World Series when the Cubs are not *allowed* to win it.

So, ESPN is OK if Notre Dame never gets picked for the playoff, but not OK if the Irish choose not to try to be in it?

How often would they have been picked in the past 20 years or so? I'm guessing once. And college football has survived pretty well despite that. If Notre Dame opted to forego a chance to be in the playoff in the future, we would hardly notice that they aren't there.
05-22-2017 02:34 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
(05-22-2017 02:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  ND doesn't have the power you think they have. Sure they have a say and a lot more so than the whole G5 as stated. But if anything, the current playoff contract really weakened the power they had before. If the P5 want to have an auto-bid to a playoff, there is nothing ND can do about it.

The P5 wouldn't try to do it, because they know the playoff would be viewed as illegitimate if a top 4 Irish team was left out.

Just imagine if in 2012, an unbeaten #1 ranked ND had been left out of a 4-team playoff? The playoff would have had no legitimacy, thus seriously weakening its value to TV, etc.

Plus, since Notre Dame has already said that having equal access to the national title trumps even independence for them, as Frank notes, doing that would result in Notre Dame joining the ACC as a full member, thus greatly strengthening the ACC, which neither the B1G nor SEC would want to see happen.
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2017 02:48 PM by quo vadis.)
05-22-2017 02:37 PM
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Eldonabe Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
You are also forgetting the media and free marketing exposure with the process in place:

The number of people that get off on arguing the committee seeding starting in October is mind blowing. I think the reactions of most is borderline psychotic since those "rankings" are meaningless, but the value of the 1,000's of hours of radio and TV debate/argument exposure for those 3 months cannot be measured. That would justify shutting down at least 1 if not 2 ESPN channels all by itself. If you simplify the process that much - there isn't much to talk about actually.

The major upside would be that this would force the Big 12 out of existence and assassinate all of this stupid P6 talk coming from the AAC as well.
05-22-2017 02:40 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
(05-22-2017 02:27 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  1. Most people reasonably believe that Notre Dame is the single most valuable national brand in all of college football.

2. The only other school that approaches their value as a single school is Texas.

IMO, your first point isn't nearly as true in 2017 as it was in 1997. And also IMO, I don't believe your second point was ever true (except in the minds of Longhorn fans).

To whatever extent your first point might still be true, their absence from the CFP wouldn't diminish it much.
05-22-2017 02:46 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
(05-22-2017 02:40 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  You are also forgetting the media and free marketing exposure with the process in place:

The number of people that get off on arguing the committee seeding starting in October is mind blowing. I think the reactions of most is borderline psychotic since those "rankings" are meaningless, but the value of the 1,000's of hours of radio and TV debate/argument exposure for those 3 months cannot be measured. That would justify shutting down at least 1 if not 2 ESPN channels all by itself. If you simplify the process that much - there isn't much to talk about actually.

The major upside would be that this would force the Big 12 out of existence and assassinate all of this stupid P6 talk coming from the AAC as well.

If I understand you correctly, your point is that the thing that drives interest in the CFP as much as anything else is its inherent unfairness.

I agree.
05-22-2017 02:49 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Should the CFP be limited to conference champions only?
(05-22-2017 02:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(05-22-2017 02:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  ESPN also isn't paying for a playoff where ND is structurally precluded from winning the national championship - that would be like Fox paying for the World Series when the Cubs are not *allowed* to win it.

So, ESPN is OK if Notre Dame never gets picked for the playoff, but not OK if the Irish choose not to try to be in it?

How often would they have been picked in the past 20 years or so? I'm guessing once. And college football has survived pretty well despite that. If Notre Dame opted to forego a chance to be in the playoff in the future, we would hardly notice that they aren't there.

It doesn't matter whether ND would have been picked in the past 20 years. What I'm saying is that the mere chance DOES matter. The entire value proposition of being a sports fan is the concept of hoping that your team has that *chance* to win it all.

Look at the biggest sports story of 2016. The Cubs didn't win the World Series for 108 years, but if Fox were told in 2015 when they re-signed their deal with MLB that the Cubs were 100% BARRED from the chance of participating in the World Series, then Fox would have paid a whole lot less for those rights despite the fact that the Cubs literally hadn't won in over a century and hadn't even made it to the World Series for 70 years. Why? Because Fox is paying for the chance that they have the rights to a year like 2016 when it FINALLY happens. And when it comes to college football, there's nothing that brings in national interest like a top Notre Dame team. Absolutely NOTHING.

So, yes, ESPN absolutely cares whether ND can play in the playoff and they will pay accordingly. The P5 conferences know what's up and they'll take the money. Heck, the fact that ND actually doesn't make the playoff in actuality is a *good* thing for the P5 since they're earning ESPN money off of ND's inclusion and the chances are low that they'll actually take a playoff spot. That's a perfect win-win for all of the power players involved.
05-22-2017 02:49 PM
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