RE: Sun Belt Baseball Tournament thread
Matchups are out for tomorrow's games. All of the Preliminary round opponents are throwing their #1 starters statistically with the exception of Arkansas State who is throwing their #3 starter. It is worth noting that both Georgia State and Little Rock elected not to throw the guys throwing Tuesday during the previous weekend series. Both Malcom and Gaddis threw in relief and gave up runs.
Game 1: #10 Georgia State (Fr Hunter Gaddis 3.27 ERA) vs #7 Arkansas State (So Bradey Welsh, 6.02 ERA)
Season Series: Arkansas State swept the Panthers in Jonesboro.
Matchup: The Red Wolves take the risk by going with an unproven Sophomore in the opening game, choosing to take their chances on unfamiliarity over experience. Welsh started the year as a bullpen guy, was moved to midweek starter and after 2 good starts in a row, was moved to the weekend rotation to cover for a staff desperate for innings. Welsh was still a midweek guy when the Panthers came into Jonesboro, so they are one of the only SBC Teams to have not faced the AState Sophomore. Gaddis faced the Red Wolves in the Saturday game and was dominant for 7 innings, but was unable to keep his pitch count low, and leaving in a 1-1 game watched the bullpen allow 3 AState runs in the 8th to win.
Neither offense is known for scoring large amounts of runs, though they get there in their own way. Georgia State uses 4 very good hitters at the top of the order to control the game. Arkansas State relies on a very high rate of scoring runners who get on base, running the bases extremely aggressively, and not being afraid to sacrifice runners into scoring position.
Keys to win:
Georgia State: Simply put, get to Welsh Early. Arkansas State's rotation has been vulnerable all season, but they possess a very good closer in Tyler Zuber, and worthwhile set up man in Tanner Kirby. The Red Wolves are 13-16 in league because of a poor rotation, but when they have gotten quality starts, their win percentage goes up significantly.
Arkansas State: Work Gaddis and get to the Panthers pen. Gaddis has been outstanding all year, and has single handedly gotten the Panthers wins at times, but they have really struggled to hold onto leads behind him. If the Red Wolves can run Gaddis pitch count up early and force him out of the game earlier than the Panthers want, they could really cause issues
Game 2:
#9 Little Rock (Sr. Cory Malcom, 2.72 ERA) vs #8 Texas State (Fr Nicholas Fraze, 4.71 ERA)
Season Series: Trojans won 2 of 3 in Little Rock
Matchup: Two of the top 5 offenses in the conference statistically go at each other in a Preliminary Round Game. Some of the Trojans stats are probably a little skewed because of the band box they play in, but the same cannot be said of Texas State, who has mashed the ball all season. The Pitching matchup favors Little Rock for 1 game only. The Trojans do not possess a great rotation, nor a great bullpen, but they have a very good pitcher in Cory Malcom who is a strikeout machine when he is on. For Texas State, the Young Fraze is the closest thing they have to an Ace in a pitching staff that has struggled all season. The entire game is going to come down to whether or not the Texas State bats can hit Cory Malcom, if they do, The Bobcats will be heavily favored over a beleaguered Trojans pitching staff that threw 13 different guys in a sweep at the hands of AState this weekend, if they don't, the Trojans could run away with it.
Keys to Victory:
Little Rock: Texas State's offense is one of the best in the league, but they strike out way too much. Cory Malcom is a strikeout machine. If he can be on his game, he has the potential to really mow down this Bobcat lineup. Offensively, the Trojans need to work Fraze early, hope the Freshman wilts under the pressure and get the game to the Texas State pen, who has the potential to make a Little League team look really good.
Texas State: Take advantage of the baserunners you get. The Bobcats are not exactly known as a small ball team. They play in a small park and have no incentive to play that way, but they might want to consider it against Malcom. Especially early. If they could get on the board early with a couple runs and give Fraze the lead, he could really pitch with confidence and shut down a UALR offense that is very good 1-6, but is vulnerable 7-9.
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