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**Kruciff** · 05-17-2017 12:52 PM

(05-17-2017 12:12 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote: Best attempt at pasting the chart. home wins, away wins, total wins, home %.

Home Wins / Total Wins = Home Win %. Let me know if I messed up the math anywhere.

If you look back at UConn, there are a few seasons where their 2 or 3 wins all occurred at home.

Code:

Team Home Away Total % UConn 63 26 89 0.708 SMU 43 19 62 0.694 Tulane 38 20 58 0.655 ECU 57 33 90 0.633 Cinci 73 44 117 0.624 Tulsa 65 40 105 0.619 Memphis 49 31 80 0.613 Houston 70 45 115 0.609 Navy 71 46 117 0.607 UCF 58 39 97 0.580 USF 58 42 100 0.580 Temple 43 32 75 0.573

FTFY

jlcolvin · 05-17-2017 12:52 PM

I see a flaw with the home wins / total wins equation; ECU's 2004 season they were 2-9 but they had 2 home wins and no away wins for 100%. Don't know if a percentage based on home wins / total home games would be any better.

StatueKnight · 05-17-2017 12:57 PM

When I think home field advantage I think of crowd noise and overall atmosphere. So it does not always equate with wins. Just something that makes it more difficult for the opposing teams. I have not been to an AAC away game yet. No way to know until you have been there. At UCF when you start stomping the tin can gets loud. Our problem is keeping the students there for the whole game.

**Kruciff** · 05-17-2017 01:01 PM

(05-17-2017 12:52 PM)jlcolvin Wrote: I see a flaw with the home wins / total wins equation; ECU's 2004 season they were 2-9 but they had 2 home wins and no away wins for 100%. Don't know if a percentage based on home wins / total home games would be any better.

I was seeing that as well.

There has to be a better method to relate this. Strength of Schedule? Exclude FCS wins? Maybe Average a winning percentage based on percentage Home win / Away win?

CoastalJuan · 05-17-2017 01:02 PM

(05-17-2017 12:52 PM)jlcolvin Wrote: I see a flaw with the home wins / total wins equation; ECU's 2004 season they were 2-9 but they had 2 home wins and no away wins for 100%. Don't know if a percentage based on home wins / total home games would be any better.

I think that the methodology still works. We likely won those 2 games because they were at home. It would wash with some away games if they were flipped. For instance, we likely would have lost against Army and Tulane that year if they were away, and maybe would have beaten Houston or Wake Forest.

Same thing for 2016. If things were flipped, we likely would have beaten South Carolina had the game been played at home, but probably would have lost to NC State.

Ratio of home win to home game would skew the results, because a better team is better at home regardless.

UofMemphis · 05-17-2017 01:03 PM

(05-17-2017 12:52 PM)StatueKnight Wrote: Have not been there since 2010, but it was a dump then. Much like the old Citrus Bowl used to be in Orlando. It was a cool design though. Old school. I hope they have fixed it up.

almost 35 million has been spent since 2010.

this:
[Image: 9651.jpg]

became this:
[Image: CS3_2384-thumb600x450.JPG]

this:

became this:
[Image: 08f9a683ce2fb2d9b7bc3d19eb8856f8.jpg]

new locker-rooms were built:
[Image: 8c7a_5077684_ver1.0_640_480.jpeg]

the lower bleachers were removed and chair back seats were added:
[Image: Liberty-Bowl-1030x579.jpg]

plus, the stadium now has blue LED lighting for night games
[Image: 14929.jpg?maxWidth=800&maxHeight=600]

Hurricane Drummer · 05-17-2017 01:38 PM

(05-17-2017 12:52 PM)Kruciff Wrote:
(05-17-2017 12:12 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote: Best attempt at pasting the chart. home wins, away wins, total wins, home %.

Home Wins / Total Wins = Home Win %. Let me know if I messed up the math anywhere.

If you look back at UConn, there are a few seasons where their 2 or 3 wins all occurred at home.

Code:

Team Home Away Total % UConn 63 26 89 0.708 SMU 43 19 62 0.694 Tulane 38 20 58 0.655 ECU 57 33 90 0.633 Cinci 73 44 117 0.624 Tulsa 65 40 105 0.619 Memphis 49 31 80 0.613 Houston 70 45 115 0.609 Navy 71 46 117 0.607 UCF 58 39 97 0.580 USF 58 42 100 0.580 Temple 43 32 75 0.573

FTFY

Maybe I'm looking at this a different way, but wouldn't it be more accurate to use (Home Wins / Total Home Games) ? Not divided by your total wins? I think this would give a better idea of how likely you are to win a home game instead of what percentage of your wins occurred at home. Then again, I only took 1 semester of statistics.

Edit: Sorry, just saw this was already discussed.

Hurricane Drummer · 05-17-2017 01:58 PM

FWIW, I took the posted home win totals and divided them by 84 (total home games based on 6 game/yr average over 10 years). Here's the results.

1. UC .87
2. Navy .84
3. UH .83
4. Tulsa .77
5. UConn .75
6T. UCF .69
6T. USF .69
8. ECU .68
9. UM .58
10T. SMU .51
10T. Temple .51
12. Tulane .45

And if you combine the two rankings and average them you get...

1T UConn
1T Cincy
3.Tulsa
4T Houston
4T Navy
6T SMU
6T ECU
8 Tulane
9T Memphis
9T UCF
11 USF
12 Tulane

It's not an exact science, but it's a slow day at work.

**Kruciff** · 05-17-2017 02:05 PM

(05-17-2017 01:58 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote: FWIW, I took the posted home win totals and divided them by 84 (total home games based on 6 game/yr average over 10 years). Here's the results.

1. UC .87
2. Navy .84
3. UH .83
4. Tulsa .77
5. UConn .75
6T. UCF .69
6T. USF .69
8. ECU .68
9. UM .58
10T. SMU .51
10T. Temple .51
12. Tulane .45

And if you combine the two rankings and average them you get...

1T UConn
1T Cincy
3.Tulsa
4T Houston
4T Navy
6T SMU
6T ECU
8 Tulane
9T Memphis
9T UCF
11 USF
12 Tulane

It's not an exact science, but it's a slow day at work.

See now the problem is, what does this tell us other than good teams tend to be good?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using CSNbbs mobile app

UofMemphis · 05-17-2017 02:05 PM

(05-17-2017 01:58 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote: FWIW, I took the posted home win totals and divided them by 84 (total home games based on 6 game/yr average over 10 years). Here's the results.

1. UC .87
2. Navy .84
3. UH .83
4. Tulsa .77
5. UConn .75
6T. UCF .69
6T. USF .69
8. ECU .68
9. UM .58
10T. SMU .51
10T. Temple .51
12. Tulane .45

thanks a lot, Larry Porter! 03-pissed

2010: 1-11
2011: 2-10

kinda skews our numbers.

Hurricane Drummer · 05-17-2017 02:07 PM

(05-17-2017 02:05 PM)Kruciff Wrote:
(05-17-2017 01:58 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote: FWIW, I took the posted home win totals and divided them by 84 (total home games based on 6 game/yr average over 10 years). Here's the results.

1. UC .87
2. Navy .84
3. UH .83
4. Tulsa .77
5. UConn .75
6T. UCF .69
6T. USF .69
8. ECU .68
9. UM .58
10T. SMU .51
10T. Temple .51
12. Tulane .45

And if you combine the two rankings and average them you get...

1T UConn
1T Cincy
3.Tulsa
4T Houston
4T Navy
6T SMU
6T ECU
8 Tulane
9T Memphis
9T UCF
11 USF
12 Tulane

It's not an exact science, but it's a slow day at work.
See now the problem is, what does this tell us other than good teams tend to be good?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using CSNbbs mobile app

It tells me people should quit ragging on Tulsa so much. lol

CoastalJuan · 05-17-2017 03:12 PM

(05-17-2017 02:05 PM)Kruciff Wrote:
(05-17-2017 01:58 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote: FWIW, I took the posted home win totals and divided them by 84 (total home games based on 6 game/yr average over 10 years). Here's the results.

1. UC .87
2. Navy .84
3. UH .83
4. Tulsa .77
5. UConn .75
6T. UCF .69
6T. USF .69
8. ECU .68
9. UM .58
10T. SMU .51
10T. Temple .51
12. Tulane .45

And if you combine the two rankings and average them you get...

1T UConn
1T Cincy
3.Tulsa
4T Houston
4T Navy
6T SMU
6T ECU
8 Tulane
9T Memphis
9T UCF
11 USF
12 Tulane

It's not an exact science, but it's a slow day at work.
See now the problem is, what does this tell us other than good teams tend to be good?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using CSNbbs mobile app

This is why I think total wins is important. Let's say, for instance, that Tulane wins 6 of their 6 home games this year. (because why not)

In your exercise and in mine, they are a perfect 6 for 6 (100%) if they only win 6 total games. If they win 12 games, my calculation changes.

Assuming they only win 6 total games....

Tulane:
Your calc: 6/6 (100%)
My calc: 6/6 (100%)

Let's compare them to a 12-win UConn (because what the heck).

In your calc, they both have a perfect 6/6 (100%), but in mine they have a 6/12 (50%).

UConn:
Your calc: 6/6 (100%)
My calc: 6/12 (50%)

In short, my calc shows that Tulane has a much better chance of winning a game at home than away. UConn just has a better chance of winning period, no matter where they play.

Hurricane Drummer · 05-17-2017 04:16 PM

(05-17-2017 03:12 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:
(05-17-2017 02:05 PM)Kruciff Wrote:
(05-17-2017 01:58 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote: FWIW, I took the posted home win totals and divided them by 84 (total home games based on 6 game/yr average over 10 years). Here's the results.

1. UC .87
2. Navy .84
3. UH .83
4. Tulsa .77
5. UConn .75
6T. UCF .69
6T. USF .69
8. ECU .68
9. UM .58
10T. SMU .51
10T. Temple .51
12. Tulane .45

And if you combine the two rankings and average them you get...

1T UConn
1T Cincy
3.Tulsa
4T Houston
4T Navy
6T SMU
6T ECU
8 Tulane
9T Memphis
9T UCF
11 USF
12 Tulane

It's not an exact science, but it's a slow day at work.
See now the problem is, what does this tell us other than good teams tend to be good?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using CSNbbs mobile app

This is why I think total wins is important. Let's say, for instance, that Tulane wins 6 of their 6 home games this year. (because why not)

In your exercise and in mine, they are a perfect 6 for 6 (100%) if they only win 6 total games. If they win 12 games, my calculation changes.

Assuming they only win 6 total games....

Tulane:
Your calc: 6/6 (100%)
My calc: 6/6 (100%)

Let's compare them to a 12-win UConn (because what the heck).

In your calc, they both have a perfect 6/6 (100%), but in mine they have a 6/12 (50%).

UConn:
Your calc: 6/6 (100%)
My calc: 6/12 (50%)

In short, my calc shows that Tulane has a much better chance of winning a game at home than away. UConn just has a better chance of winning period, no matter where they play.

True. Your calculations are valid. But I guess it just comes down to the question being asked. Are we wanting to know who is more likely to be at home when they win, or who is most likely to win when playing at home only? Ha "win when".

BigHouston · 05-17-2017 04:34 PM

(05-17-2017 08:52 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:
(05-17-2017 08:29 AM)Kruciff Wrote: Before everyone inevitably crowns ECU the victor, understand that ECU is 55-34 at home since 2002. In that same time frame, UCF is 56-35... including our two winless seasons.

Homefield advantage isn't about how many people you can squeeze into a stadium, it's also about winning percentage vs. Away.

Easy answer then.

Wichita - Undefeated at home since 1986 ... :)

Need I remind you, you guys are in the AAC now it ends next coming season... 05-mafia

... Hehe

pesik · 05-17-2017 04:50 PM

(05-17-2017 04:34 PM)BigHouston Wrote:
(05-17-2017 08:52 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:
(05-17-2017 08:29 AM)Kruciff Wrote: Before everyone inevitably crowns ECU the victor, understand that ECU is 55-34 at home since 2002. In that same time frame, UCF is 56-35... including our two winless seasons.

Homefield advantage isn't about how many people you can squeeze into a stadium, it's also about winning percentage vs. Away.

Easy answer then.

Wichita - Undefeated at home since 1986 ... :)

Need I remind you, you guys are in the AAC now it ends next coming season... ... Hehe

BigHouston · 05-17-2017 04:57 PM

(05-17-2017 04:50 PM)pesik Wrote:
(05-17-2017 04:34 PM)BigHouston Wrote:
(05-17-2017 08:52 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:
(05-17-2017 08:29 AM)Kruciff Wrote: Before everyone inevitably crowns ECU the victor, understand that ECU is 55-34 at home since 2002. In that same time frame, UCF is 56-35... including our two winless seasons.

Homefield advantage isn't about how many people you can squeeze into a stadium, it's also about winning percentage vs. Away.

Easy answer then.

Wichita - Undefeated at home since 1986 ... :)

Need I remind you, you guys are in the AAC now it ends next coming season... ... Hehe

LOL... I know... All in good fun, pesik

zfred12 · 05-17-2017 06:41 PM

(05-17-2017 02:05 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:
(05-17-2017 01:58 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote: FWIW, I took the posted home win totals and divided them by 84 (total home games based on 6 game/yr average over 10 years). Here's the results.

1. UC .87
2. Navy .84
3. UH .83
4. Tulsa .77
5. UConn .75
6T. UCF .69
6T. USF .69
8. ECU .68
9. UM .58
10T. SMU .51
10T. Temple .51
12. Tulane .45

thanks a lot, Larry Porter!

2010: 1-11
2011: 2-10

kinda skews our numbers.

We all have skewed samples within the 15 year period. It's not unique to Memphis

**Kruciff** · 05-17-2017 06:46 PM

(05-17-2017 06:41 PM)zfred12 Wrote:
(05-17-2017 02:05 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:
(05-17-2017 01:58 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote: FWIW, I took the posted home win totals and divided them by 84 (total home games based on 6 game/yr average over 10 years). Here's the results.

1. UC .87
2. Navy .84
3. UH .83
4. Tulsa .77
5. UConn .75
6T. UCF .69
6T. USF .69
8. ECU .68
9. UM .58
10T. SMU .51
10T. Temple .51
12. Tulane .45

thanks a lot, Larry Porter!

2010: 1-11
2011: 2-10

kinda skews our numbers.

We all have skewed samples within the 15 year period. It's not unique to Memphis

We have the skewiest samples of all. People won't stop reminding us either.

slhNavy91 · 05-17-2017 08:51 PM

(05-17-2017 01:01 PM)Kruciff Wrote:
(05-17-2017 12:52 PM)jlcolvin Wrote: I see a flaw with the home wins / total wins equation; ECU's 2004 season they were 2-9 but they had 2 home wins and no away wins for 100%. Don't know if a percentage based on home wins / total home games would be any better.

I was seeing that as well.

There has to be a better method to relate this. Strength of Schedule? Exclude FCS wins? Maybe Average a winning percentage based on percentage Home win / Away win?

Why not home winning percentage minus away/neutral winning percentage?
Or home winning percentage divided by overall winning percentage (which probably approximates the home wins divided by total wins method)?

TIGERCITY · 05-17-2017 09:00 PM

(05-17-2017 08:42 AM)M1T4 Wrote: UCF and ECU squabbles lmao

Midget wrestling

Threaded Mode \| Linear Mode Ranking Home Field Advantage in the AAC
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