(05-12-2017 10:54 PM)JRsec Wrote: (05-12-2017 10:27 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: (05-11-2017 10:37 PM)JRsec Wrote: I think we are approaching this the wrong way with regards to the SEC and ACC and who we should take.
The ACC needs Notre Dame plus 3 to get to 18, or 4 to get to 18 while N.D. keeps its special arrangement.
The SEC needs 4 to get to 18.
If Baylor is sanctioned and lose their vote, or worse get kicked out, the Big 12 would stand at 9. They would, by NCAA precedent, have two years to get back up to 10 before they lose rights given at the membership level of 10 (right now that is a potential CCG). Two years would be all they would need to set up moves.
So our question should be how should the SEC divide the 7 required schools so that dissolution would be possible without Baylor's vote or presence and if Baylor still has full membership should we look to take 8 and leave N.D. as a partial?
I'd say Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State to the SEC.
Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech and West Virginia to the ACC at 4. Drop West Virginia at 3.
But this might make for a fun debate.
I think Baylor is still going to be in the mix though. The NCAA got burned in the sphere of public opinion when they went after Penn State. Many people felt they overstepped their bounds. In fact, the NCAA walked back a lot of the sanctions over time.
I'm not sure what authority the Feds have to bring the hammer down on Baylor. Perhaps they have more leeway to do something, not sure.
Anyway, I think the linchpin may have to be something else.
They are going to get hit for violations of Title IX and violations of the Clery Act by the Feds. The cover up goes clearly to the presidents office. The NCAA will have access to the Fed's investigations. If they follow up with severe sanctions I doubt Baylor will have much recourse in disputing the findings of a Federal Court. S.M.U. and Penn State didn't face that. S.M.U. because it was just corrupt athletic practices and Penn State because the State government made pursuing the case difficult. Baylor will have no such cover, and they have the righteous indignation of a boat load of Texas Baptist's to contend with if they do anything less than confess and take their punishment.
If Baylor is out then we could break the league at 7. I'm still worried about whoever is left behind though as I think there's a potential for politics to come into play.
Normally we would think about Kansas State being left out. They don't offer much, sure, but they share a state with someone who does so if you're a KS politician do you try to force KU's hand to go along with getting KSU in somewhere before they vote to dissolve the league. It's what I would do.
Iowa State and West Virginia are the only ones disconnected from a political anchor. It would be structurally easier to leave them out, but the networks probably want WVU in the fold. ISU, maybe...not sure.
ESPN may need FOX's help to make everything work. I wonder if the two networks will start making more joint bids in the future partly in an effort to stave off the internet companies that threaten to undermine the entire industry. They could share content as well as costs and mitigate to some degree any competitive bids made by the likes of Amazon.
What if FOX and ESPN agree to jointly bid on the SEC's 1st Tier rights when they come open? Together, they could push CBS out. ESPN could agree to cede more of the B1G rights to FOX, especially basketball which some analysts are saying will be decreased in coverage by ESPN anyway. ESPN has a glut of college basketball content that they can't properly monetize. At that, it seems they would rather focus on the NBA. FOX has very little to offer during that time of year by comparison.
Especially if the Big 12 is going away then FOX is going to lose some football content from that league. They'll make it up a little with B1G games, but they're still sharing those with ESPN. They're sharing the PAC as well.
So what if FOX not only loses the Big 12 content, but agrees to help make it happen?
Maybe this...
B1G takes Kansas and UConn
FOX needs more basketball content and this is a good way to make it happen. In addition, ceding more B1G rights to FOX helps them transition content better between their main networks and the BTN. FOX has something to gain here.
ACC takes Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Texas, TCU, Houston, and West Virginia
The ACC gains 2 huge brands in ND and UT, market access in UC, content value in WVU, and greater market penetration by accessing DFW and Houston.
SEC takes BYU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Iowa State
The SEC gets OU obviously with content value in OSU. The TT addition helps nail down DFW and tap West TX whereas the league already has a solid presence in Houston. KSU is probably a better fit than KU and brings a better football brand. ISU is AAU and brings some additional basketball cache. BYU is ESPN's idea to finish it out because their games won't be worth much in the new P4 world if they're on the outside looking in. Geographically, they're square in a completely Western division.
The SEC and ACC essentially split TX down the middle so that everyone gets in, but no league dominates the market. ESPN and FOX can share 1st Tier rights to the SEC and with so many schools, ESPN doesn't really lose any games.