JRsec
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 11:36 AM)ken d Wrote: (04-28-2017 11:17 AM)JRsec Wrote: It's a matter of perception based on the aspect in focus. When you look at it from a college sports perspective you are looking at a trailing aspect rather than a leading one. And the focus is too defined to see the impetus for this trailing trend.
The impetus is enrollment. It's contributing factors are the broader economy, the erosion of state sales tax bases due to that economy and deals they have cut to attract jobs, and the mechanization of the work force. There are many other contributing factors but these are among some of the most recognized.
Then factor in a birthrate among the middle class that is past peak and is waning.
State Flagship schools are dropping enrollment standards (not a lot but by increments) increasing enrollment through decreased tuition, or increased scholarships, or by the creation of zones beyond the state where out of state tuition will not be charged, and they are expanding available campus and off campus housing in preparation for what most states recognize as a necessity, cuts in higher education appropriations.
The total number of colleges and universities that we have were a direct beneficiary of the Baby Boom and the GI Bill. Single function colleges (teacher's colleges for the most part) blossomed into universities. Jr Colleges sprang up everywhere to make attending easier for applicants with either the inability to leave a smaller community for higher education or who had obligations to stay in a smaller community.
There was a retraction in this growth in between the education of returning WWII vets on the GI Bill, and the matriculation of the Boomers. There was a retraction after the Boomers and the matriculation of their children. Now we face a protracted retraction. The Boomers and their echo have passed. The echo of the Boomer's children's children (which will grow ever smaller) will have very little impact on the trends at hand. They will be less financially able to afford higher education partially because of inflation, partially because of the erosion of inheritances to end of life care and taxes, and mostly because most forms of labor (which is in abundant supply) are subject to supply and demand. Make jobs that cover the cost of a college education less available to the majority of graduates and the trend in higher education goes down, not up. So return on investment in a college education will mean fewer enroll out of fewer total applicants which means the higher education boom that was created when the GI's returned to a grateful nation pursued degrees that prior to the war would never have been pursued, and that they saw it as an obligation to their children to do the same, will no longer be the priority of a totally new generation.
The top 5% of students will still be the best paid professional class of citizens. But those who are craftsmen, or know trades, will be on the upswing. Skill sets, and more importantly the credentialing that says you have them, will become the new diploma to get a job. Those skills could be in communications, graphic arts, or plumbing. They will simply be what the current job market demands.
So with the reality of the current situation at hand States will protect their oldest institutions, combine or close their smallest ones, and redefine the missions their mid sized universities.
It's the natural human emotions over our institutions that lead to the angst. Really it is nothing more than the tide going out and taking with it the flotsam we thought was permanent because it was there for most of our lives.
Since the state focus will be on consolidation, state institutions cut with regard to state funding, and enrollment an issue, the leaders of those institutions who study trends constantly have already made the adjustments they deemed necessary to survive the present conditions.
If you need enrollment you do the things I've already mentioned they are doing including the building projects that seem to be counter productive. But they only seem that way because enrollment is trending down, not because we are considering that they are preparing for the downsizing of higher ed within their states. They are pursuing new revenue streams to make up for cuts in appropriations. FOX and ESPN see this as an opportunity to seized upon. Why? Because it gives them finally an opportunity to organize what had been the sleepy, regional, domain of the conferences. Now that the administrations of these schools are waking up to the need to cover lost funding the mega dollars of television are impossible for them to pass up. The cost is they've lost control over the form and function of their athletics and it has simply become big business and big business throws its weight around in this country.
Consolidation of branding in business lifts the brands involved. In other words place a highly sought product with another that is commonly needed and sales of both go up. The same principle applies to college sports programs. Place a brand with other brands and the demand for both goes up. This isn't a sinister plan of the P schools. It's the sinister plan of the networks and the P schools are the chosen product that has been hijacked from its rightful owners, the citizens of the states they represent.
Somehow we feel devalued when schools we attended or graduated from are demoted in the public perception, and we feel detached if they are closed. It is really an erroneous attachment as your diploma is not worth less, and it doesn't affect who you are. I only say this because more closures are coming. We are just at the beginning of this cycle.
Market forces and now technology are making many jobs obsolete and we aren't talking manual labor, we are talking white collar jobs. Many forms of management are going away. Work as we know it will be radically changed over the next few decades. And in the educated and industrialized world the birth rate proves this. The stress on the environment by overpopulation isn't coming from Europe and the United States. The mass migrations into Europe from Africa and the Middle East is a tell. Every major natural and man made catastrophe has been preceded by such migrations. Man made catastrophes are usually called war and they are almost always fought over resources.
So we will see a much tighter consolidation in Flagship schools, a broader elimination of smaller ones, and a more comprehensive change in the mission of the mid sized ones, before we see anything else. And since realignment is merely a side effect of these trends we will see more consolidation into top brands there as well. But it will be motivated by the pursuit of money and capitalized upon by the networks who will constantly looking for a smaller and better mix of schools and will be restrained only by the need to appease a larger market so eventually they will find the sweet spot in their models.
So if you blame a P school for your problems you are merely abusing a passenger on the Titanic lucky or fortunate enough to have found a lifeboat instead of directing your anger at the Captains who steered us into this iceberg, or the overall class system that had you locked below decks when lifeboats were available, and you are not seeing those schools in the P5 as victims who have nearly lost everything that endeared them to their alumni to an opportunist which places its stipulations on which cheers can be used, how the venues are to be used during games, what logos can go on the walls and where they will be placed, and what overhead they have to spend to get their venues ready for corporate connections for broadcast. It's like the Carpathia said to those in the lifeboats, give me control over your life and we'll pick you up. The ratio is about right too. 2200 went into the water and over 1500 perished. In other words a little less than 1/3rd survived the catastrophe. But the wreck that is realignment is merely the byproduct of forces that are radically altering a much much larger portion of our lives than just sports. And if that doesn't shake us and wake us, we're toast!
Wars are how we humans have always thinned our herds to deal with major changes like the ones you are describing. I may not live to see the next World War, but most of the posters on this forum will. The usual precursors of war have begun in earnest. The biggest of these is the trend toward ultra-nationalism, as evidenced by events like the Brexit vote, the election of Trump, and the collapse of the centrist parties in France. The EEU will be a casualty, and possibly NATO and the United Nations, as we devolve into every country for itself.
Twenty years from now, we will surely wonder why we wasted so much angst on conference realignment and playoffs, and silly labels like P5 and G5.
Ken D. we must be fairly close in age. 20 years could be a lifetime for me, or beyond. I'm not ready to call it nationalism just yet although the overtones are definitely there. Right now my descriptor would be more from the 20's, protectionism, which could easily become xenophobic.
Perhaps the biggest tell was the Pentagon's defense plan for the 21st century. It heavily emphasized the protection of potable water sources. Add the over fishing of the world's oceans and the severe depletion of breeding stocks of the more palatable species and I'd say World War is not far-fetched at all. Water, protein, and space will do it every time. It will really not even be divided along political boundaries when it happens, IMO. It will be industrialized nations (at least at first) against underdeveloped nations not governing their population. The objectives will be for birth control and of course for resources. If things continue to tighten for life essential commodities then it will be between groups of nations.
Those with power will go after the low hanging and easily obtained fruit first and if not with cooperation then at least with no resistance as long as everyone gets a cut. I doubt this kind of war is going to be too boots intensive. A show of force will be made in the name of stopping global pollution, or called a liberation of the impoverished. Both are great PC excuses for incursions armed or otherwise.
Then as the byproduct of the failure of the EU, when national rights do emerge and global trade is affected, the foundation for global conflagration will have been laid. Refusals to pay international debts, or the refusal to sell essential resources, or embargoes, will put us right back to where we were in the late 20's and early 30's with regard to the relation of nation states.
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Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
