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How will North Korea play out?
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Hood-rich Offline
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Post: #21
RE: How will North Korea play out?
(04-25-2017 01:45 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-25-2017 10:32 AM)I45owl Wrote:  
(04-25-2017 09:51 AM)dbacard Wrote:  I think if NK does another nuke test, the US will do a Tomohawk strike like Syria. [also why Trump met with the senate to seek approval unlike last time].

How does NK respond to that is the real question. I would love to see Kim's generals do a coup and take him out.

There is a reason that a clown like Kim Jong-un is the head of North Korea, and that is that he is largely a figurehead. Nothing would substantially change if there were a coup unless you have some reason to think that some enlightened, liberal officers had somehow advanced to get power in the North Korean military. I don't think what you see in North Korea is Kim pushing military solutions against the wishes of the generals. What he does, in terms of threats and missile/weapons tests is probably done in consultation with the military.

North Korea is not led by a mad, irrational dictator. It is run by a cold, cynical, calculating, predictable, and consistent military class, of which Kim is part and parcel. China is loosely behind the driver seat in terms of the continued existence of North Korea and its basic nature, but North Korea is more consistent than all developed nations, given that the leadership turns over every 4-8 years in most countries.

I don't know what the solution is in North Korea, but if it ever comes to blows, it would require a massive commitment from the United States and South Korea, and it would be an effort that would result in Unification, which would take an extraordinary effort.

Someone brought up the comparison with German reunification. West Germany at the time was about 63 million people ... East Germany about 16 million... about a 4:1 ratio (or 20% of Germans were in the East). North Korea has about 25 million people, the South about 50 million ... a 2:1 ratio (about 33% of Koreans live in the North). On the plus side, there is a lot of infrastructure work that needs to go into the North. I don't know what the economics of unification would look like.

Would it really? First Im not convinced a decapitation strike wouldn't solve the problem. It would lead to a military rule and reunification that would mean a real peace. I don't think the generals really want to fight because they have seen Iraq. Its the same set pieces and equipment on each side. The only reason they didn't lose last time was China sent nearly 200K troops across the border as the their army was in full retreat. Not to mention, the Russian Air Force came to their aid in 1951. Neither of those things are happening this time around.

That's why I don't think we'll need quite the US commitment you think. Air Power alone is going to be 100X more destructive than it was in the first Korean conflict. Despite constant attacks from the air, the North Korean Army was able to move around and attack at night in the 1950's. Not today. If the NK Army tries to move in day or night it will be destroyed just like the "highway of death" in Iraq. The only issue is Seoul. Its going to be pelted early and often with artillery until counter fire and air power can silence them. Even then, mobile light missile batteries will still be able to hit the city. Seoul will take a beating.
why would they attack Seoul? just because they dont like them?

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(This post was last modified: 04-25-2017 09:22 PM by Hood-rich.)
04-25-2017 09:19 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #22
RE: How will North Korea play out?
(04-25-2017 05:43 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  If China stays out the initial open warfare will be rough but within 90-100 days the outcome is inevitable. They have a conscript army which means they will already have motivation problems. They already have logistical problems in that they use varying types and sizes of ammunition for everything from their handguns to their heavy artillery that will only get worse once we establish initially air superiority then air supremacy and make it to where "if it moves it dies".

One thing that has always stood out to me is that even in the propaganda videos they release showing off their military might if you watch the vehicles a large number of them are burning oil like a 1969 F700 pulpwood truck, and this is the best of their equipment. Imagine what condition their average and sub-par units are in.

Add to that the fact that much of their equipment is 1950's to 1960's era technology like T-55 and T-62 tanks and their Chinese variants. This equipment couldn't hold up against our equipment in the Gulf War, and we have advanced it a lot since then.

I have little doubt that the US would prevail, and air power would be a big part of the solution. The trucks that drove the missiles through their dog and pony show last week were Chinese made, which shows the tolerance of the Chinese to their nuclear program.
04-25-2017 09:27 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #23
RE: How will North Korea play out?
(04-25-2017 09:27 PM)I45owl Wrote:  
(04-25-2017 05:43 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  If China stays out the initial open warfare will be rough but within 90-100 days the outcome is inevitable. They have a conscript army which means they will already have motivation problems. They already have logistical problems in that they use varying types and sizes of ammunition for everything from their handguns to their heavy artillery that will only get worse once we establish initially air superiority then air supremacy and make it to where "if it moves it dies".

One thing that has always stood out to me is that even in the propaganda videos they release showing off their military might if you watch the vehicles a large number of them are burning oil like a 1969 F700 pulpwood truck, and this is the best of their equipment. Imagine what condition their average and sub-par units are in.

Add to that the fact that much of their equipment is 1950's to 1960's era technology like T-55 and T-62 tanks and their Chinese variants. This equipment couldn't hold up against our equipment in the Gulf War, and we have advanced it a lot since then.

I have little doubt that the US would prevail, and air power would be a big part of the solution. The trucks that drove the missiles through their dog and pony show last week were Chinese made, which shows the tolerance of the Chinese to their nuclear program.

China is willing to provide nominal support to North Korea as long as they aren't a liability. The Chinese have far greater economic ties to South Korea, Japan, an other regional countries than North Korea because North Korea has no money and no markets. North Korea is either already or extremely close to becoming a liability to the Chinese and I highly doubt that they would intervene on their behalf if there were hostilities.
04-25-2017 10:28 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #24
RE: How will North Korea play out?
What good is North Korea to China outside of being a geographical buffer? Are they the Mr Hyde to China's Dr Jekkel? IMO Kim isnt taking a leak without China's permission. NK allows China to be the good cop while encouraging NK behind the scenes. I just don't trust the Chinese if push comes to shove against NK. China has used NK very well over the past 60 years
04-25-2017 11:01 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #25
RE: How will North Korea play out?
(04-25-2017 09:16 PM)Hood-rich Wrote:  
(04-25-2017 10:32 AM)I45owl Wrote:  North Korea is not led by a mad, irrational dictator. It is run by a cold, cynical, calculating, predictable, and consistent military class, of which Kim is part and parcel.
source?

Let me clarify... Kim Jong-Un is a spoiled little lunatic, but the leadership of North Korea does not act as if it were run by an immature, fat, little runt. It may be that he has family members killed with missiles and chemical weapons, but North Korea has been on a smooth trajectory for decades, and the drama that arises from it are just new tactics to achieve the same ends, not the wild, election-cycle by election-cycle swings that the US sees, going from Dixiecrat to neocon to post-Colonialist to out-of-his-league-city-councilman-wannabe from one president to the next.

But, here are your links...(I hope you don't mind blogs and fake news...)

North Korea, Far From Crazy, Is All Too Rational - The New York Times
Quote:But political scientists have repeatedly investigated this question and, time and again, emerged with the same answer: North Korea’s behavior, far from crazy, is all too rational.

The Use of Irrationality in Foreign Affairs - Geopolitical Futures
Quote:Your goal is to create a sense in others that you are an unpredictable soul, not out of calculation, but out of foolishness and carelessness. Each month there is going to be one magnificent hand, and you play poker to maximize the income from that hand. The rest of the time you try to stay even while building a pattern that is designed to undermine the other players, and let loose their greed and fear, so that, once a month, when the hand is dealt, no one knows what you are doing, and you clean the table’s clock.
...
The North Koreans have mastered the art of irrationality — or are simply irrational. It is the genius of the master when it isn’t known whether the irrationality is real or not. The North Koreans have built nuclear weapons in order to guarantee the survival of their regime against foreign intrusion. The uncertainty as to whether or not they would actually use those weapons, or even whether they have a deliverable capability, causes major powers to be very careful not to arouse North Korean insanity.
...
In the end, the North Koreans are not going to invite total annihilation by using nuclear weapons, but they are going to use uncertainty to manipulate the world. Or perhaps, in the short run, the North Koreans are actually irrational and the U.S. is assuming they are not. Or perhaps the U.S. thinks they are.

(not relevant to rationality, but interesting with regards to Seoul, air power over Korea, and unification...)
What a War with North Korea Looks Like - Geopolitical Futures
Quote:The North Koreans, therefore, appear to have an effective counter. Their artillery is dangerous and targets South Korea’s capital and largest city. Destroying the nuclear facilities while Seoul is devastated would raise questions about American military capability that would resonate. The United States needs a win for political reasons.
...
The artillery deployment north of the Demilitarized Zone facing Seoul has been in place for many years. Married to competent SAM systems and radar-guided guns, it seems to represent a formidable capability. This means that if the U.S. attacks the nukes, North Korea has the initiative to start a battle in the DMZ, posing unacceptable choices for the United States and catastrophic choices for South Korea. If you detect a lack of enthusiasm by the South Koreans to the idea of a U.S. airstrike on North Korean nukes, this is why. It’s not about the cost of integrating North Korea into South, although that matters. Rather, it is their fear of losing their capital. Japan, also at risk from nuclear weapons but not artillery, is much more enthusiastic about these strikes.

America’s New President Is Not a Rational Actor | Foreign Policy
Quote:As I’ve warned before, Trump & Co. seems to be operating straight from the Erdogan-Berlusconi-Putin playbook, and it remains an open question whether this approach will work in a country with many independent sources of information, some of which are still committed to facts.
...
Even more important, Trump seems to be blithely unaware that the United States is engaged in a serious geopolitical competition with China, and that this rivalry isn’t just about jobs, trade balances, currency values, or the other issues on which he’s fixated. Instead, it is mostly about trying to keep China from establishing a hegemonic position in Asia, from which it could eventually project power around the world and possibly even into the Western hemisphere itself.

[editorial... quoting Trump:]
“There are some losers who think I’m too fond of President Putin, and who believe he’s got something on me. That’s dumb, absurd, a crazy conspiracy theory that’s being promoted by the dishonest media. What these people don’t understand is that a better relationship with Russia is in our national interest. Russia is a major European and Asian power. It has thousands of nuclear weapons. Putin is a tough guy who really hates terrorists, and he doesn’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. Putin also helped the world get rid of Assad’s chemical weapons. [editorial:...bombs Syrian airbase that hosts Russian troops because he claims Syria used chemical weapons against his people] As my really good friend Henry Kissinger told me, a bad relationship with Russia makes it harder to solve problems in lots of places.
...
I’m going to show the American people that I can get a better deal from Russia working with them than working against them. Trust me, it’s gonna be TREMENDOUS.”

IMHO, here is the situation: neither China nor Russia can tolerate an unconstrained US presence in Korea, and they do not care a whit about who suffers for their interests. Korea is one of a handful of natural allies that include Britain and Israel, and potentially a mullah-free Iran. The only way out that I see is to commit to all parties that the US maintain a limited 20-40,000 troop presence in Korea... not enough to pose a threat to China, not enough to even repel invasion from China, but enough to buy time and enough to demonstrate commitment to any existential threat to Korea. One of my favorite quotes from Owl 69/70/75 is to treat your friends better than your enemies. That is something that the US gets spectacularly wrong very often. If the US takes actions that result in casualties that exceed four figures, then it's hard for me to conceive how any American ally can trust the US again. The US can't make a calculus that results in > 10,000 civilian deaths of an ally in order to save millions of their brethren. That's hubris at a cost that someone else pays, and allies will see that in a different way that Americans ever will.
04-25-2017 11:36 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #26
RE: How will North Korea play out?
(04-25-2017 09:19 PM)Hood-rich Wrote:  why would they attack Seoul? just because they dont like them?

Nork routinely sacrifice millions of Korean lives for reasons that are far less worthy than their own lives. Why would you expect Nork to hesitate to kill hundreds of thousands of lives to save their own life?

The US poses an existential threat to Nork. They would sell their Seoul to save their own life.
04-25-2017 11:42 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #27
RE: How will North Korea play out?
(04-25-2017 11:01 PM)solohawks Wrote:  What good is North Korea to China outside of being a geographical buffer?

How many people have died for the sake of a geographical buffer? Many more than 10s of millions. Perhaps less than billions.
(This post was last modified: 04-25-2017 11:44 PM by I45owl.)
04-25-2017 11:44 PM
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usmbacker Offline
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Post: #28
RE: How will North Korea play out?
China Warns North Korea Will ‘Cross The Point Of No Return’ If It Carries Out A Sixth Nuclear Test

[Image: 9th1nb.jpg]

China is clearly fed up with their bellicose neighbor to the south and is letting North Korea know about it by cutting off coal imports from NK and restricting gasoline sales to the the Norks. NK will be hard pressed to fight any kind of war without a steady flow of gasoline.

Quote:China has warned North Korea will ‘cross the point of no return’ if it carries out a sixth nuclear test amid fears the secretive state can create a nuke every six weeks.

Kim Jong-Un is believed to have personally overseen the country’s largest ever firing drill in the port city of Wonsan today.

But fears he was due to conduct another nuclear test or another missile launch to mark 85 years since the founding of its army proved unfounded.

It comes as the state-controlled Chinese Global Times newspaper wrote that North Korea risks serious consequences if it carries out further trials.

The editorial warned that ‘if North Korea carries out a sixth nuclear test as expected, it is more likely than ever that the situation will cross the point of no return.”

This would mean ‘all parties would bear the consequences, with Pyongyang sure to suffer the greatest losses,’ the paper said.
It comes amid claims Pyongyang is capable of creating as many as eight new nuclear weapons a year.

According to the New York Times there is a ‘growing body of expert studies and classified intelligence reports’ that believes the North is now able to make a new nuclear bomb every six or seven weeks.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...drill.html
04-26-2017 09:36 AM
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ODUsmitty Offline
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Post: #29
RE: How will North Korea play out?
Meanwhile, back in Pyongyang............

[Image: Stereotypes.jpg]
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2017 03:15 PM by ODUsmitty.)
04-27-2017 02:09 PM
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