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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 11:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  ESPN will have roughly 30 games from the Big 10, 30 from the Big 12, 20 from the Pac 12, 40 from the SEC and 50 from the ACC. That is 170. With 14 weeks in the season and 3 games on ESPN, 3 games on ESPN2 and 2 on ABC, that is only 112 time slots. They don't need the G5 to fill those slots. They've got some TH/F agreements and 1 regional game a week to handle the other 60 or so games as well as using ESPN3 for a lot of ACC games and occasionally selling other games, like a 2nd Texas game to the LHN.

For Fox, they will have roughly 80 from the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12, similar to ESPN. They only have 2 games on Fox about half the season along with 3 on FS1. 4.5 X14 is 63. So they have all they need. They have some agreements to show some games on TH/F. The Big 12, and presumably the Big 10 and Pac 12, don't allow their games to be broadcast on FS2 except to deal with game overruns or weather delays. Not enough distribution.

So that leaves ESPNU, ESPNNews and FS2 as the only places they can put any significant amount of G5 games (or T,W,TH,F).

I may be wrong, but I don't think ESPN has that many P5 games. Yes, they have half (or more) of the Pac-12, Big12, SEC, and Big 10 packages--plus all the ACC. But the number of games that represents for the Big10, Pac-12, SEC, and ACC will all be affected by a significant number of games reserved to their respective conference networks (obviously still in the planning stage for ACC).
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2017 01:02 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-24-2017 12:58 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-23-2017 07:34 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  3) FOX might like a little AAC football. Its been mentioned numerous time that ESPN doesn't want FOX in the east. So far, they have been relatively successful at doing just that. The FOX east coast college football inventory is quite thin. The AAC with Navy---and big city teams like Orlando, Philly, Hartford/New York--has pulled decent ratings and might be a fairly interesting property--especially since 50% of the AAC would cost less than a 2 team Big12 expansion. FOX could more than double their eastern time zone college football inventory at a very reasonable cost.

How in the world does Fox get involved for 2018? These contracts usually have exclusive negotiating periods.

Unless there is a clause that our contract is nullified when adding a school (which Frank notes is unlikely), we can't go to open market until 2020.

I suppose that as part of the exclusive renegotiation with ESPN, we could decide to do a new contract with them that covers less inventory (i.e. Tier 1 only). Allowing us then to go to market with our Tier 2 games in 2018.

Aside from that, I don't see how Fox can get involved in 2018.

Even then, we don't know the terms of ESPN's sublicensee to CBS Sports. If that agreement is in place until 2020, then that's another stumbling block.
03-24-2017 01:48 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 01:48 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  
(03-23-2017 07:34 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  3) FOX might like a little AAC football. Its been mentioned numerous time that ESPN doesn't want FOX in the east. So far, they have been relatively successful at doing just that. The FOX east coast college football inventory is quite thin. The AAC with Navy---and big city teams like Orlando, Philly, Hartford/New York--has pulled decent ratings and might be a fairly interesting property--especially since 50% of the AAC would cost less than a 2 team Big12 expansion. FOX could more than double their eastern time zone college football inventory at a very reasonable cost.

How in the world does Fox get involved for 2018? These contracts usually have exclusive negotiating periods.

Unless there is a clause that our contract is nullified when adding a school (which Frank notes is unlikely), we can't go to open market until 2020.

I suppose that as part of the exclusive renegotiation with ESPN, we could decide to do a new contract with them that covers less inventory (i.e. Tier 1 only). Allowing us then to go to market with our Tier 2 games in 2018.

Aside from that, I don't see how Fox can get involved in 2018.

Even then, we don't know the terms of ESPN's sublicensee to CBS Sports. If that agreement is in place until 2020, then that's another stumbling block.

Correct, They would not be involved in 2018. FOX being involved is a potential consequence of NOT doing an early extension thus allowing the AAC to hit the open market. If ESPN allows the AAC to hit the open market, the price becomes unpredictable--and their control of that inventory is endangered. If ESPN needs it (like I think they do), that's not an acceptable outcome.

That's why Im saying--once it gets pretty close to expiration, the AAC loses most of its motivation to accept an early extension. That's why I think its very possible we will see movement on an extension this year (while both parties have roughly equal incentive to do deal)--or not at all.
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2017 02:30 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-24-2017 02:25 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 11:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  ESPN will have roughly 30 games from the Big 10, 30 from the Big 12, 20 from the Pac 12, 40 from the SEC and 50 from the ACC. That is 170.

ESPN/ABC will have 25 games with the Big 10. For the other conferences, I looked at last year's numbers:

SEC: 30 games
Pac 12: 22 games
Big 12: 22 games
ACC: 43 games

That's 144 games, not 170.

As for Fox, they too will have 25 Big 10 games. For the other conferences, (not counting FSN) last year they had:

0 SEC
23 Pac 12
0 ACC
28 Big 12

That's 76 total, not 80.

Last year, before ESPN lost 25 Big 10 games to Fox, there was room for the following American telecasts:

4 on ABC
6 on ESPN
6 on ESPN2
10 on ESPNU

The other ~30 were shown on ESPNews and CBS Sports.

Compare the old Big East football deal:

At least 3 games on ABC
Minimum 17 games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2
Minimum 5 games on ESPNU
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2017 02:37 PM by CougarRed.)
03-24-2017 02:27 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 02:27 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 11:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  ESPN will have roughly 30 games from the Big 10, 30 from the Big 12, 20 from the Pac 12, 40 from the SEC and 50 from the ACC. That is 170.

ESPN/ABC will have 25 games with the Big 10. For the other conferences, I looked at last year's numbers:

SEC: 30 games
Pac 12: 22 games
Big 12: 22 games
ACC: 43 games

That's 144 games, not 170.

As for Fox, they too will have 25 Big 10 games. For the other conferences, (not counting FSN) last year they had:

0 SEC
23 Pac 12
0 ACC
28 Big 12

That's 76 total, not 80.

Last year, before ESPN lost 25 Big 10 games to Fox, there was room for the following American telecasts:

4 on ABC
6 on ESPN
6 on ESPN2
10 on ESPNU

The other ~30 were shown on ESPNews and CBS Sports.

Compare the old Big East football deal:

At least 3 games on ABC
Minimum 17 games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2
Minimum 5 games on ESPNU

The old Big East had only 8 teams
BE: 8 teams with a minimum of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2.
AAC: 11 teams (I'm not counting Navy) with minimum of 16 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2. And more of them were weekday games than before.
03-24-2017 03:49 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Questions for the TV experts
Another note on the AAC tv contract negotiations:
CBS had the right to carry Navy games in 2018, and I fully expect them to. They had the right to extend the MWC 4 years after 2015, and they did. 2017 won't be the last year of Navy's current contract.
03-24-2017 03:54 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 03:54 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Another note on the AAC tv contract negotiations:
CBS had the right to carry Navy games in 2018, and I fully expect them to.

Source? Every article I've seen says that the CBS Sports deal expires after 2017 except CBS has the option to broadcast Navy's game with Notre Dame in 2018.
03-24-2017 04:11 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Questions for the TV experts
"CBS owns the TV rights to the Army-Navy game and Navy's home games against Notre Dame through 2018. Navy has a separate deal with CBS Sports Network for the TV rights to its other home games that runs through 2017." (emphasis added)

2012 ESPN Article on Navy's move to the Big East
03-24-2017 04:51 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Questions for the TV experts
Navy will re-up with CBS. They will get way more money than any AAC deal
03-24-2017 05:05 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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Post: #30
Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 05:05 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Navy will re-up with CBS. They will get way more money than any AAC deal


They are rolling it in with the main AAC contract
03-24-2017 05:08 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Questions for the TV experts
The AAC needs another provider to be willing to bid for them in order for them to get a substantial increase in pay from ESPN. Some have speculated that it could be Fox, which I doubt since they are loaded with B1G, Big 12 and PAC-12 content in the Fall, and B1G, Big 12, Big East and PAC-12 content in the Winter. I don't think that they will need the additional content, especially since they just have limited spots on Fox, and more so on FS1 and FS2. That leaves open CBS Sports as another potential buyer, but nothing indicates that they are willing to spend top dollar values on any G5 conferences.

I think the AAC re-ups with ESPN, and the annual value is somewhere around $4 million per team per year, with a prorated distribution to Wichita State. It would be double than what it currently gets, but I would be shocked if it got more than $5 million. It may not be much or what AAC fans want, but at least they continue to get their exposure.
03-24-2017 05:10 PM
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DocAllentown Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 05:10 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC needs another provider to be willing to bid for them in order for them to get a substantial increase in pay from ESPN.

I doubt it even gets to the point of a bidding war. Should be interesting.
03-24-2017 05:53 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 05:08 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 05:05 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Navy will re-up with CBS. They will get way more money than any AAC deal


They are rolling it in with the main AAC contract

That would be nice but are you speculating?
03-24-2017 06:39 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 05:53 PM)DocAllentown Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 05:10 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC needs another provider to be willing to bid for them in order for them to get a substantial increase in pay from ESPN.

I doubt it even gets to the point of a bidding war. Should be interesting.

I agree. Unless there's hope a wildcard like NBC-SN will show interest, it'll be negotiated early with ESPN. Navy and CBS and how that ties in to this current AAC contract is quite interesting. Will Navy stick with CBS for Army and Notre Dame games and split that up evenly (no Boise sweetheart deal) with the rest of the AAC is uncertain.
03-24-2017 06:48 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 05:53 PM)DocAllentown Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 05:10 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC needs another provider to be willing to bid for them in order for them to get a substantial increase in pay from ESPN.

I doubt it even gets to the point of a bidding war. Should be interesting.

NBC bid last time and still has no FBS football beyond Notre Dame. The AAC, along with Navy (which includes a Notre Dame game every other year as well as an Army-Navy game every other year) might be a nice option. NBC did not counter bid in 2013 when ESPN matched--mainly because the AAC had no real ratings track record. They might be willing to bid more this time around now that they have a good idea what the league can do. While I think the final deal will end up in the 5-6 per team ramge---I cant say a 4 million per team deal isn't reasonable possibility.

That said---I still don't think this ever gets to a competitive bidding situation. Not because I don't think there is another bidder, but precisely because ESPN expects there WILL be competitive bidders. I think they end up doing an early extension long before we get to where competitive bidding might be a factor.
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2017 07:02 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-24-2017 06:56 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 12:27 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 11:26 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Exactly---and those viewership numbers have been pretty darn good. That's why I think the AAC will get a nice raise. Now that everyone has seen what their ratings track record, they are going to be an attractive media property. Understand--nobody is going to give them P5 money---their numbers don't support that. But anything under 10 million a team is probably a viable number. At 4-6 million a team, they are great buy.

Devil's advocate:

the AAC ratings are merely a reflection of the slots and opportunities they have been given by ESPN.

In other words, put the MWC and CUSA in those slots instead, and ESPN gets just as good a product to show at those times.

Therefore, if AAC won't accept similar payment to what they have now, then they'll just give that amount to MWC and CUSA.

Yes, it's possible that when AAC negotiators point out our ratings, ESPN will just say "that's not the AAC, we could put any G5 conference's games in those slots and they'd draw the same".

Could happen. That's why as Warrior says the AAC badly needs another bidder who thinks it has real value. 07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2017 06:44 AM by quo vadis.)
03-25-2017 06:39 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 06:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 05:53 PM)DocAllentown Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 05:10 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC needs another provider to be willing to bid for them in order for them to get a substantial increase in pay from ESPN.

I doubt it even gets to the point of a bidding war. Should be interesting.

NBC bid last time and still has no FBS football beyond Notre Dame. The AAC, along with Navy (which includes a Notre Dame game every other year as well as an Army-Navy game every other year) might be a nice option. NBC did not counter bid in 2013 when ESPN matched--mainly because the AAC had no real ratings track record. They might be willing to bid more this time around now that they have a good idea what the league can do. While I think the final deal will end up in the 5-6 per team ramge---I cant say a 4 million per team deal isn't reasonable possibility.

That said---I still don't think this ever gets to a competitive bidding situation. Not because I don't think there is another bidder, but precisely because ESPN expects there WILL be competitive bidders. I think they end up doing an early extension long before we get to where competitive bidding might be a factor.

Not sure NBC could have come back and counter bid back then, the concept of having the right to match seeming to mean if ESPN matched NBC's offer, the AAC was contractually required to sign with ESPN. But I'm not a lawyer so ...

I guess it's theoretically possible that a right of first refusal could be a watered-down thing that only guarantees that before signing with X, you give Y a chance to match, but if Y matches, you can then go back to X and ask for more, which if X offers more than what Y matched, Y would then have a chance to match, etc. But I've never heard of such a thing.
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2017 07:19 AM by quo vadis.)
03-25-2017 07:14 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-24-2017 02:27 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 11:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  ESPN will have roughly 30 games from the Big 10, 30 from the Big 12, 20 from the Pac 12, 40 from the SEC and 50 from the ACC. That is 170.

ESPN/ABC will have 25 games with the Big 10. For the other conferences, I looked at last year's numbers:

SEC: 30 games
Pac 12: 22 games
Big 12: 22 games
ACC: 43 games

That's 144 games, not 170.

As for Fox, they too will have 25 Big 10 games. For the other conferences, (not counting FSN) last year they had:

0 SEC
23 Pac 12
0 ACC
28 Big 12

That's 76 total, not 80.

Last year, before ESPN lost 25 Big 10 games to Fox, there was room for the following American telecasts:

4 on ABC
6 on ESPN
6 on ESPN2
10 on ESPNU

The other ~30 were shown on ESPNews and CBS Sports.

Compare the old Big East football deal:

At least 3 games on ABC
Minimum 17 games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2
Minimum 5 games on ESPNU

Excluding the CCG, how many of those AAC games were TH/F nights? I recall quite a few.

And if the number is 140 instead of 170, there are still only 112 Saturday slots on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2. As for Fox, 76 is roughly 80 and is still plenty when you have 63 Saturday slots on Fox/FS1.
03-25-2017 08:15 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Questions for the TV experts
Most important aspect of the current AAC contract with ESPN is, does ESPN have a ROFR like they did in the prior contract.
03-25-2017 08:36 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Questions for the TV experts
(03-25-2017 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 06:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 05:53 PM)DocAllentown Wrote:  
(03-24-2017 05:10 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC needs another provider to be willing to bid for them in order for them to get a substantial increase in pay from ESPN.

I doubt it even gets to the point of a bidding war. Should be interesting.

NBC bid last time and still has no FBS football beyond Notre Dame. The AAC, along with Navy (which includes a Notre Dame game every other year as well as an Army-Navy game every other year) might be a nice option. NBC did not counter bid in 2013 when ESPN matched--mainly because the AAC had no real ratings track record. They might be willing to bid more this time around now that they have a good idea what the league can do. While I think the final deal will end up in the 5-6 per team ramge---I cant say a 4 million per team deal isn't reasonable possibility.

That said---I still don't think this ever gets to a competitive bidding situation. Not because I don't think there is another bidder, but precisely because ESPN expects there WILL be competitive bidders. I think they end up doing an early extension long before we get to where competitive bidding might be a factor.

Not sure NBC could have come back and counter bid back then, the concept of having the right to match seeming to mean if ESPN matched NBC's offer, the AAC was contractually required to sign with ESPN. But I'm not a lawyer so ...

I guess it's theoretically possible that a right of first refusal could be a watered-down thing that only guarantees that before signing with X, you give Y a chance to match, but if Y matches, you can then go back to X and ask for more, which if X offers more than what Y matched, Y would then have a chance to match, etc. But I've never heard of such a thing.

It's not a right of first refusal. It's just the right to match. But given that ESPN is the world leader in the sports industry, if they match---youre not leaving. CUSA got sued for failing to bring their Fox offer to ESPN before signing. They were not sued for going to FOX--they were sued for not giving ESPN the "opportunity" to match. The clause just gives ESPN the last crack at the apple, it doesn't mean the conference cant accept the competing offer. That said, having the guaranteed last crack at the contact is a huge negotiating advantage (especially when you also reached the most homes (98 million homes at the time).

To be fair, there was great confusion among sports writers at the time---likely stemming from the fact these writers are not businessmen and they tended to use "the right to match" and "the right of first refusal" interchangeably. They are not the same thing. In fact, given that you are dealing with people (teams/players) and specific performance, Im not sure if a true right of first refusal is really even enforceable. I would think it is not.
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2017 10:13 AM by Attackcoog.)
03-25-2017 09:20 AM
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