(03-20-2017 02:16 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote: I don't think that the ACC will expand until Texas makes up their mind as to what they are doing. Exception would be ND coming all in.
Expanding for the ACCN? Would any AAC team bring enough fan support to drive the demand for premium rates? The ACC is in the beginning stages of a new lucrative tv contract with an extended GOR, why go through another round of negotiations?
All slow time garbage aside, I don't see Texas going to the ACC period. The distance is too great. They have no natural rivals outside of Notre Dame, a school they occasionally schedule. Plus Texas does care about the other sports. Minor sports have to be parked somewhere if they go independent. I just don't see it happening.
As to additions, your options are Connecticut and West Virginia. Both programs have athletic departments that earn well above the ACC MEAN. Snag one of those and get N.D. all in and you have your 16. Or, snag both and let N.D. remain aloof. I think that's your future. Cincinnati doesn't even meet your mean and is lower than Wake Forest in athletic revenue. Navy is the most absurd speculation that keeps coming up. They likely do not want a P conference association and they travel light, make less than most lower tier G5 schools, and would add nothing to the ACC coffers.
The only way the ACC could land Texas is by offering them a division of their rivals from their region. I don't see that happening either.
If Texas truly wants to ignore the SEC they will take Tech, T.C.U., and possibly Rice and head to the PAC.
If Oklahoma wants to maintain games in Texas (in addition to the Horns) they will join the SEC and the SEC will likely have to take O.S.U. with them.
Kansas joins the Big 10 with one other.
That's the most likely way this ends if Texas ignores the SEC.
If Texas wants to remain more regional they will join the SEC with OU, or possibly with OU, TTU, and OSU.
They essentially get to keep what they want by doing so:
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech.
This becomes their division. If the SEC remains a two division conference then add Texas A&M, L.S.U. and Ole Miss to that division.
The priorities here for these decisions are in this order:
1. Revenue
2. Ease of access for paying fans, which includes travel for all sports.
3. Scheduling games for all sports that their fans are interested in attending.
4. Academic considerations.
Of those the ACC only checks the box for academics.
The SEC checks the first three and academic average for the conference is slightly above that of the Big 12.
The PAC checks only #4.
The Big 10 checks #1 and #4.
This is what the administrators and trustees of these schools will be looking at. It sure as hell won't be what the twitter guys, beat writers, or message board junkies post.
In my mind the real question surrounding Texas is will they move to the SEC, or try to reform their own conference? I think the preference is for the latter. And, that's is why, and the only reason why, the SEC might think about moving beyond 16. We can take Texas and Oklahoma along with Tech and O.S.U. and still stay above our mean in revenue, while locking out the only schools that rival conferences could benefit from taking.