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Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
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Kruciff Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 10:12 AM)Crebman Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 08:11 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 11:20 PM)Crebman Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 08:16 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 08:08 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  No. See #22

I'm not sure I see the point you are making? You're blaming auto workers and unions (even though there are no auto unions in the south, or at least the plant I work at) for demanding pay that is competitive relative to their experience and job market?

Even then, it's not just assembly workers but engineers and managers and planners and HR... I didn't go to school for 5 years at the expense of tens of thousands of dollars to make $35,000 a year. The annual pay per year you are implying would leave many in the US at a poverty wage, whereas in Mexico that's a middle class salary.

What do the assembly workers make per hour in your factory?

This article seems to cover a lot of information

Quote:The study said workers at the Tuscaloosa County auto plant on average earn $65 an hour in pay and benefits. Reuters and Automotive News first reported on the study's findings on Tuesday.
In comparison, employees at the Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., and BMW plant in Spartanburg, S.C., earn the least at $38 and $39 an hour, respectively, the study said.
Pay and benefits at General Motors' U.S. plants averaged $58 per hour. Ford Motor Co.'s U.S. plants averaged $57 per hour, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles U.S. workers averaged $48 per hour. The report noted Fiat-Chrysler has a much higher percentage of lower-paid, entry-level workers, which brought its hourly average down.
The average hourly pay and benefits for workers at other automakers' U.S. factories were Honda at $49 per hour, Toyota at $48, Nissan at $42 and Hyundai/Kia at $41. Honda and Hyundai have auto plants in Lincoln and Montgomery, respectively, while Toyota has an engine manufacturing plant in Huntsville. All the foreign automotive companies have plants in the Southeast.
The study noted that the per-hour labor cost averages include pay for temporary workers who are employed by outside agencies but work full-time alongside those employed directly by the automakers. MBUSI is among the automakers using temporary workers.
The study noted that the Japanese automakers — Honda, Toyota and Nissan — have the highest percentage of temporary workers and that the use of such workers brings the average hourly cost of labor down, according to the center's analysis.
Reuters noted the study was released as the United Auto Workers begins contract negotiations with GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler.
The UAW also has made an aggressive push to unionize the foreign automakers' plants in the Southeast.
It formed a union local in Tuscaloosa last year for MBUSI workers but has not yet filed a petition for a union election with the National Labor Relations Board. UAW officials have said they would like Mercedes to recognize a union without an election once a majority of MBUSI workers join the union. The UAW leadership has said the union wants to develop a relationship similar to what Mercedes has with German unions in the automaker's home country.

So, what your article describes is a "middle class" living had by those people that work in the auto industry in the Southeast. No?

If we're going with the average wage of the plants, taking into account that team members and contract workers far outnumber admin + development, I would say all of them are lower middle class. They can certainly have a comfortable living and career with the low cost of living in the southeast, which is fine for many. Not for me, but I have higher aspirations 04-cheers
02-26-2017 11:12 AM
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Hood-rich Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 11:12 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  If we're going with the average wage of the plants, taking into account that team members and contract workers far outnumber admin + development, I would say all of them are lower middle class. They can certainly have a comfortable living and career with the low cost of living in the southeast, which is fine for many. Not for me, but I have higher aspirations 04-cheers

wait, you think those are lower middle class jobs in the southeast? those are probably $25 to $30 / hour (wage) jobs + very good benefits.
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2017 11:22 AM by Hood-rich.)
02-26-2017 11:15 AM
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Kruciff Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 11:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 11:12 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  If we're going with the average wage of the plants, taking into account that team members and contract workers far outnumber admin + development, I would say all of them are lower middle class. They can certainly have a comfortable living and career with the low cost of living in the southeast, which is fine for many. Not for me, but I have higher aspirations 04-cheers

wait, you think those are lower middle class jobs in the southeast? those are probably $25 / hour (wage) jobs + very good benefits.

The $64/hr wage valuates take home pay and all benefits, including 401k, medical, dental, life, vision, retirement, various insurances, paid travel, vacation, and sick days.

I'd be surprised if the average team member on the floor makes more than $20-$22.50 / hr.

According to Wikipedia page on the definitions of the middle class, both your and my definition fall squarely between working class / lower middle class.
02-26-2017 11:23 AM
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Hood-rich Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
I think it's probably higher than that. I've been in construction for a while now. we have to deal with similar stuff a lot for estimating work and it varies across the nation. typically the benefits are about somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of the total compensation. my definition of $25 / hour wage translates to $52,000 / year. that's easily middle class to upper middle class almost anywhere in the southeast. Hell that's middle class on a single income.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/201...dle-class/
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2017 11:33 AM by Hood-rich.)
02-26-2017 11:31 AM
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Hood-rich Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
calculator in the above post does HOUSEHOLD income and even allows you to factor in number of dependents to get a true picture. I quickly ran a calc on 52k per year in Knoxville for household family of 4 and that would be solidly middle class.
02-26-2017 11:35 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 09:56 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 09:31 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 08:11 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  
Quote:The UAW leadership has said the union wants to develop a relationship similar to what Mercedes has with German unions in the automaker's home country.
I would favor a situation where all unions developed relationships with all employers that were similar to those in Germany..
To fully emulate Germany in that regard, the U.S. needs a culture change on it's ideas of further education and what it means to have a successful career. I agree with you, but at this point it's not compatible or supported.

Perhaps we should be moving in their direction, at least with respect to education, particularly vocational education. Because of our inherent geographic advantages, I believe we can support somewhat higher career aspirations than Germany can.
02-26-2017 11:39 AM
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Kruciff Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 11:31 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  I think it's probably higher than that. I've been in construction for a while now. we have to deal with similar stuff a lot for estimating work and it varies across the nation. typically the benefits are about somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of the total compensation. my definition of $25 / hour wage translates to $52,000 / year. that's easily middle class to upper middle class almost anywhere in the southeast. Hell that's middle class on a single income.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/201...dle-class/

I think we're splitting hairs here. Are they good jobs? Ya sure. I'd not be content with it, but that's just the way I am. Certainly in the Southeast they are good jobs, but you won't be making 6-figures in it (nor should they).

All in all, my point is, they're paid above average of what the local market dictates. There's not really any room to lower it, imo, if you want to keep the talent you pay for. If a trade war between mexico begins and the auto industries are forced to stop production, we can't just simply start it back up again by offsetting the cost in wages.

Any sort of movement of the supply chain back to the US will create a high demand for talented employees. That will drive wages up, which sounds good, but cost for parts will skyrocket in return as the cost matches the U.S. cost of living versus mexico, as well as the need to compete for employees.

This is all disregarding how long it would take and how much money it would require to even get a supply chain started wholly in the US.
02-26-2017 11:41 AM
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DFWMINER Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-25-2017 07:32 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 07:30 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 07:28 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 07:22 PM)Redbanksdog Wrote:  The USA doesn't need Mexico. The OP had a good question, can anyone answer that ?

I'm a product engineer for one of the (several) car manufacturers here in Alabama. All the plants in the region would unequivocally shut down if Mexico barred exports to the US. The plant I work at generates $10k-13k in revenue per minute.

Nissan, Honda, Mercedes, Hyundai, BMW, and others. The supply chain in Mexico is essential.

Sounds like the auto industry needs to bring that supply chain closer to its plants.

If it weren't for the cheap labor in Mexico creating parts, the plants in the U.S. assembling the cars wouldn't exist. NAFTA allows for this loophole. Whole commodities assembled in the U.S. are taxed once rather than by a part by part basis. It's the reason these carries are made in America rather than the EU or Japan.

A move by Mexico to bar exports for those Mexican facilities would cripple those Mexican communities as well. This will never happen.
02-26-2017 11:42 AM
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Kruciff Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 11:39 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 09:56 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 09:31 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 08:11 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  
Quote:The UAW leadership has said the union wants to develop a relationship similar to what Mercedes has with German unions in the automaker's home country.
I would favor a situation where all unions developed relationships with all employers that were similar to those in Germany..
To fully emulate Germany in that regard, the U.S. needs a culture change on it's ideas of further education and what it means to have a successful career. I agree with you, but at this point it's not compatible or supported.

Perhaps we should be moving in their direction, at least with respect to education, particularly vocational education. Because of our inherent geographic advantages, I believe we can support somewhat higher career aspirations than Germany can.

That sounds like a great idea. I'm probably going to lose your support on this, but that is largely what Bernie Sanders was pushing. Not only was he wanting to relook how we fund higher education, but he wanted to revamp trade schools, similar to the european model.

Germany taxes heavily, but they also cover all education costs for everyone, and even have a young adults job program, where students work the service, retail, and low skill jobs while they go to school. They earn pay while getting an education and it's all covered by the government, and not the small business owner. Cost of living there, aside from housing and transportation (which is culturally different from the U.S. idea of housing / transport), is no different than the US
02-26-2017 11:44 AM
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Kruciff Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 11:42 AM)DFWMINER Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 07:32 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 07:30 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 07:28 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 07:22 PM)Redbanksdog Wrote:  The USA doesn't need Mexico. The OP had a good question, can anyone answer that ?

I'm a product engineer for one of the (several) car manufacturers here in Alabama. All the plants in the region would unequivocally shut down if Mexico barred exports to the US. The plant I work at generates $10k-13k in revenue per minute.

Nissan, Honda, Mercedes, Hyundai, BMW, and others. The supply chain in Mexico is essential.

Sounds like the auto industry needs to bring that supply chain closer to its plants.

If it weren't for the cheap labor in Mexico creating parts, the plants in the U.S. assembling the cars wouldn't exist. NAFTA allows for this loophole. Whole commodities assembled in the U.S. are taxed once rather than by a part by part basis. It's the reason these carries are made in America rather than the EU or Japan.

A move by Mexico to bar exports for those Mexican facilities would cripple those Mexican communities as well. This will never happen.

They're already crippled. I really don't think they have as much to lose as the U.S. would.
02-26-2017 11:44 AM
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Hood-rich Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 11:41 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 11:31 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  I think it's probably higher than that. I've been in construction for a while now. we have to deal with similar stuff a lot for estimating work and it varies across the nation. typically the benefits are about somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of the total compensation. my definition of $25 / hour wage translates to $52,000 / year. that's easily middle class to upper middle class almost anywhere in the southeast. Hell that's middle class on a single income.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/201...dle-class/

I think we're splitting hairs here. Are they good jobs? Ya sure. I'd not be content with it, but that's just the way I am. Certainly in the Southeast they are good jobs, but you won't be making 6-figures in it (nor should they).

All in all, my point is, they're paid above average of what the local market dictates. There's not really any room to lower it, imo, if you want to keep the talent you pay for. If a trade war between mexico begins and the auto industries are forced to stop production, we can't just simply start it back up again by offsetting the cost in wages.

Any sort of movement of the supply chain back to the US will create a high demand for talented employees. That will drive wages up, which sounds good, but cost for parts will skyrocket in return as the cost matches the U.S. cost of living versus mexico, as well as the need to compete for employees.

This is all disregarding how long it would take and how much money it would require to even get a supply chain started wholly in the US.

Not reallly splitting hairs at all. I pointed out that out because those are clearly NOT lower middle class jobs. For a single person that is upper middle class in the South and there is a fairly large gap between upper and lower. Your perspective and our tax code point to a bigger problem. These are the people who are being hurt the most by our immigration policies the past 30 to 40 years. It doesn't sound like much to you and me but I can attest to feeling the crunch and my household income is well over double these figures. imagine how they are feeling right now. What's worse is these jobs are getting harder and harder to find and no politician seems concerned with creating more.
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2017 11:59 AM by Hood-rich.)
02-26-2017 11:57 AM
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Kruciff Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 11:57 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 11:41 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 11:31 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  I think it's probably higher than that. I've been in construction for a while now. we have to deal with similar stuff a lot for estimating work and it varies across the nation. typically the benefits are about somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of the total compensation. my definition of $25 / hour wage translates to $52,000 / year. that's easily middle class to upper middle class almost anywhere in the southeast. Hell that's middle class on a single income.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/201...dle-class/

I think we're splitting hairs here. Are they good jobs? Ya sure. I'd not be content with it, but that's just the way I am. Certainly in the Southeast they are good jobs, but you won't be making 6-figures in it (nor should they).

All in all, my point is, they're paid above average of what the local market dictates. There's not really any room to lower it, imo, if you want to keep the talent you pay for. If a trade war between mexico begins and the auto industries are forced to stop production, we can't just simply start it back up again by offsetting the cost in wages.

Any sort of movement of the supply chain back to the US will create a high demand for talented employees. That will drive wages up, which sounds good, but cost for parts will skyrocket in return as the cost matches the U.S. cost of living versus mexico, as well as the need to compete for employees.

This is all disregarding how long it would take and how much money it would require to even get a supply chain started wholly in the US.

Not reallly splitting hairs at all. I pointed out that out because those are clearly NOT lower middle class jobs. (we don't even know for sure what their wages are, but according to my source they can be classified as lower middle class. We disagree, and we're splitting hairs because the original conditions are not known and this isn't even the point of the discussion

For a single person (most are not single. I'd say the majority have dependents) that is upper middle class in the South and there is a fairly large gap between upper and lower. Your perspective and our tax code point to a bigger problem.

These are the people who are being hurt the most by our immigration policies the past 30 to 40 years. (in what way? Do illegal immigrants and middle class americans compete for skilled manufacturing positions or is it bigger than that?)

It doesn't sound like much to you and me but I can attest to feeling the crunch and my household income is well over double these figures. imagine how they are feeling right now. (I couldn't live on these incomes, with my student loan payments and living expenses)

What's worse is these jobs are getting harder and harder to find and no politician seems concerned with creating more. Agreed, but the problem is a lot more complicated than any simple wall could fix. Automation is the primary cause for loss of skilled labor positions. This board has already brought that topic up multiple times, and it is certainly the elephant in the room
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2017 12:06 PM by Kruciff.)
02-26-2017 12:06 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
The wall is a stupid idea. Trade wars are stupid ideas. I'm ready for Trump to shift gears and start doing the good things that he promised.
02-26-2017 12:29 PM
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miko33 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 12:29 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The wall is a stupid idea. Trade wars are stupid ideas. I'm ready for Trump to shift gears and start doing the good things that he promised.

Agree. No one wins in a trade war. In fact, Smoot-Hawley helped spread the Great Depression far and wide.

While I ultimately voted for Trump in November in order to avoid HRC as president, I'm surprised at the overall change in the politics of this board. Many of you guys have moved leftwards and don't even realize it. Protectionism is supported her now, rampant executive orders and additional items that five or even ten years ago would be shouted down as being progressive overreach. What we need to do is make our exports more competitive and to make it easier to manufacture here. That means reforming the tax code for corporations and small businesses.
02-26-2017 06:20 PM
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Post: #55
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 06:20 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 12:29 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The wall is a stupid idea. Trade wars are stupid ideas. I'm ready for Trump to shift gears and start doing the good things that he promised.

Agree. No one wins in a trade war. In fact, Smoot-Hawley helped spread the Great Depression far and wide.

While I ultimately voted for Trump in November in order to avoid HRC as president, I'm surprised at the overall change in the politics of this board. Many of you guys have moved leftwards and don't even realize it. Protectionism is supported her now, rampant executive orders and additional items that five or even ten years ago would be shouted down as being progressive overreach. What we need to do is make our exports more competitive and to make it easier to manufacture here. That means reforming the tax code for corporations and small businesses.

It's because Trump is leftward with a touch of nationalism, farther left than what Hillary registered at on the political spectrum, and he is the savior to humanity.
02-26-2017 07:46 PM
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Fo Shizzle Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 06:20 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 12:29 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The wall is a stupid idea. Trade wars are stupid ideas. I'm ready for Trump to shift gears and start doing the good things that he promised.

Agree. No one wins in a trade war. In fact, Smoot-Hawley helped spread the Great Depression far and wide.

While I ultimately voted for Trump in November in order to avoid HRC as president, I'm surprised at the overall change in the politics of this board. Many of you guys have moved leftwards and don't even realize it. Protectionism is supported her now, rampant executive orders and additional items that five or even ten years ago would be shouted down as being progressive overreach. What we need to do is make our exports more competitive and to make it easier to manufacture here. That means reforming the tax code for corporations and small businesses.

Ive maintained forever that Wall is a mistake and that we need to simply dry up the jobs and the reasons illegals cross the border in the first place. Lock up people hiring them for starters. I agree...Tax reform should be one of our top priorities.
02-26-2017 07:54 PM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 12:29 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The wall is a stupid idea. Trade wars are stupid ideas. I'm ready for Trump to shift gears and start doing the good things that he promised.

Yup.
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2017 08:13 PM by nzmorange.)
02-26-2017 08:12 PM
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Hood-rich Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 06:20 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 12:29 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The wall is a stupid idea. Trade wars are stupid ideas. I'm ready for Trump to shift gears and start doing the good things that he promised.

Agree. No one wins in a trade war. In fact, Smoot-Hawley helped spread the Great Depression far and wide.

While I ultimately voted for Trump in November in order to avoid HRC as president, I'm surprised at the overall change in the politics of this board. Many of you guys have moved leftwards and don't even realize it. Protectionism is supported her now, rampant executive orders and additional items that five or even ten years ago would be shouted down as being progressive overreach. What we need to do is make our exports more competitive and to make it easier to manufacture here. That means reforming the tax code for corporations and small businesses.

what is so leftward? Im fine with EOs when it is something I agree with. I've believed we needed a border wall long before Trump. As far as trade wars go I will fully admit not understanding much about it or what causes them. Aside from that I'm not sure what is so far left about anything Trump wants to do - and it's not 100% clear that he actually WANTS a trade war. I just want the illegals out by hook or by crook. Then make the changes you think will boost the economy.
02-26-2017 09:00 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-26-2017 10:21 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 06:52 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(02-25-2017 05:03 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  Link

Quote:But Mexico's foreign minister Luis Videgaray said his country would respond to any tax levied by the US and that they did not actually need financial help.

He warned Mexico could impose levies on select goods aimed at US regions most reliant on exports south of the border, such as Iowa, Texas and Wisconsin.

Speaking during a radio interview, Mr Videgaray said: "Without a doubt, we have that possibility and what we cannot do is remain with our arms crossed.

"The Mexican government would have to respond."

Anyone familiar with the supply chain set up from Mexico? Imagine if all of that were shut down. I know for a fact I'd be out of a job, and many other Americans.

The guy lost all credibility with that statement. Texas is very self sufficient. We even have our own power-grid. And we have plenty of destinations for our exports. On the other hand, the major Mexican city of Monterrey (1.1 million people) depends on natural gas from wells in South Texas. Mr. Videgaray and his government need to consider which nation would suffer more from a trade war.

I worked for several companies selling that gas to Pemex.

If we cut off natgas exports from South Texas, you'd throw American workers out of jobs. And Mexico has nat gas, just doesn't have the pipes to get it to Nuevo Leon.

Basically, Mexico has the ability to serve itself with domestic nat gas. But they haven't bothered because its cheaper to just buy STX nat gas than to build the pipes. Monterrey would suffer for about a year, then South Texas would suffer permanently.

No way Mexico can build the infrastructure to replace those wells in a year. The gas in those south Texas fields would just be sold to other buyers.

Sure some American jobs might be effected by this, but it would surely cripple Mexico's economy. Disrupting Monterrey's energy supply would have a massive effect on American factories located there, and only create an incentive to bring those jobs back to the US. Mexico just can't afford a trade war.
02-26-2017 09:12 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Mexico threatens trade war over Trump's Wall Tax
(02-25-2017 07:34 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Just for comparison, Texas has a larger economy then Mexico. Mexico is ranked 15th. If Texas was an independent country, we would be ranked 10th. A trade war might cause some issues in the US economy, but it would cause economic collapse and civil unrest throughout Mexico. If there is to be a trade war, the wall better be finished before it starts.

Texas would get hurt just as bad as Mexico by a trade war. And the Mexicans are pretty much united. We aren't.
02-26-2017 10:46 PM
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