The SEC and Realignment: A Review of a 25 Year Old Strategy
We have had years of playing with scenarios, talking about the prospects for various schools, and each pushing our fantasy selections, or our favorite schools. But in reality things were quite different in 1991-2.
The SEC had interest in 6 schools back then, and discussed others. There were several schools that were interested in the SEC and some interested in staying with schools that showed an interest. Suffice it to say that it came down supposedly to the following 6: Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Clemson. Virginia Tech was considered too be to far away. West Virginia was still growing its reputation. And others just weren't what the SEC was looking for. Texas and A&M were reportedly curious about what we could offer since the SWC was shaky, OU was quietly interested if UT was, Florida State had been interested, Arkansas seemed to be ready, and Clemson was investigating the situation.
The stated goal was 2 schools to get to 12 and split the divisions in order to have a conference championship game. Obviously the two Texas schools could add huge value, and if another brand and friend of theirs would consider coming along then great. Florida State would have given us more than an even hold over a growing state, and Clemson was at the time worried about the lack of football emphasis in the ACC. If the Tigers came along with the Noles we would pick up a good state and a stepping stone to North Carolina in the future. So, before other interested parties got started we made a long shot play to jump right to 16 and to claim all of our objectives at that time.
Arkansas was seen as a solid brand, a lone state university that delivered the whole state, and was a great bridge to Texas.
But you know all of that. So I ask you now just to consider the map, and the brands. It is after all the best way for you to get a feel for where the SEC might head next. Those 6 schools represented were not the ultimate goal but a way of getting into the areas we considered most valuable to us and that was the ultimate goal.
Clemson backed out when F.S.U. headed to the ACC. South Carolina applied and gave us what we needed in the Palmetto State. Bridge to North Carolina accomplished.
Arkansas was decisive and gave us the bridge we wanted to Texas.
Texas wanted to explore other options and later both UT and A&M would run into political issues within their state.
Florida State chose the ACC for Bowden's stated purposes and even more reasons behind the scenes. The SEC desire to acquire more of the Sunshine State was therefore thwarted. Miami was a strategically intelligent acquisition for the ACC. That situation was a tactical error for us.
South Carolina was a nice addition but heretofore has not become the bridge we thought they might be into North Carolina. That addition while solid hasn't failed in its strategic purpose, but neither has it accomplished it. Appraisal of choice: Good.
Arkansas has now paid off with the addition of Texas A&M. Appraisal of choice: Excellent.
With the addition of A&M 3 of our first 6 goals have been accomplished.
Missouri would not have been possible without Arkansas either. Did we seek Missouri? No. But the addition of Missouri with new markets helped to cover part of what we had hoped to accomplish with another Florida brand, a greater share of markets. Appraisal of choice: Good to Very Good
With Missouri taking the place of the original hope of a second Florida school we now have 4 of our original slots filled.
Texas and Oklahoma remain outstanding. Either one would give us all we really need. Both would lock us into an unquestioned hold over top product and would no doubt NET everyone involved a much tidier sum.
So where do we stand today after acquiring the first two, the CCG, and now two more?:
A North Carolina School: Not Happening
A Virginia School: Nice Market, Not Happening, Was Too Far in '91 and Is Still Too Far
A South Carolina School: Check
A Second Florida School: Not Happening Any Time Soon
A Texas School or the Top Pair of Texas Schools: Check on the First Part
An Oklahoma School: Was a Bonus in '91. Now a Must if Texas Doesn't Join As They Give Us Essential Dominance In DFW: Still Needs to be Accomplished
Florida Make UP: Missouri - Check
As for now: If OU & UT join it's a grand slam. If just Texas joins we might look to Kansas as a second. If just Oklahoma joins we might have to take OSU to get them. Why? The Big 10 and PAC will be shopping for them too.
So I would feel comfortable saying that the SEC will be in the market for OU. The SEC would take Texas if the wanted in. We need a second Texas school for the same reason we would have been fortunate to have landed F.S.U. It's a big state and one of the top 2 schools plus a lesser brand cuts into our share too much. Holding both top brands locks down the state.
Another Texas school with just Texas? Probably not a requirement.
Another Oklahoma school with OU? Might well be a requirement.
Kansas? Great basketball addition but not a great fit.
West Virginia? Better suited to the ACC geographically.
It's probably what you already knew to be the options, but clearly there are only 2 schools we likely would take immediately. And the variable are few thereafter.
So speculation about moving to 20 or more simply isn't sustainable unless those schools were one of the North Carolina State schools, Florida State, or perhaps a strong and growing brand in Clemson, or that bridge too far in Virginia. In any event none of those are likely at all right now, if ever.
In fact, they may never have a reason to join us unless we added the options to the West that would make our financial reasons compelling.
But I assure you the Big 10 will have similar plans and essentially the same strategy. Whether in a year, or in six, the battle for Texas and Oklahoma is coming. That's where your eyes and thoughts need to be focused.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2017 12:57 AM by JRsec.)
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