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JCGSU Offline
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Post: #21
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-17-2017 08:15 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  Of course recruiting players with multiple stars gets the alumni talking, but I don't put much stock in them. App seems to have a lot of luck recruiting players with few stars.

QB Taylor lamb - 2 stars .78 - Pretty decent QB
RB Marcus Cox - 2 stars .77 - Ditto - App career rushing leader
OLB Devan Stringer - 2 star .77 - started as True Sophomore - 3rd on team in tackles
CB Clifton Duck - 2 stars .75 - Sunbelt Freshman DPOY - USA Today & Football Writers Assn of America Freshman AA Teams
RB / KR Darrynton Evans - barely 2 stars .74 - lowest rated player in 2016 class - 22.5 yds per kick return - 815 All Purpose yards as a Freshman - All Bowl Team Special Teams Selection
ILB Eric Boggs - barely 2 Stars .73 - Started True Freshman - 2nd Team All Sunbelt - App leading tackler
OL Parker Collins - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
OL Colby Gossett - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
RB Jalin Moore - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Latrell Gibbs as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - 2016 Sunbelt Offensive POY
CB Latrell Gibbs - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Jalin Moore as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - Started as true freshman - 1st team All Sunbelt CB in '15 - 5th nationally in INT's

On the other hand
DB Treyon Garnette - 3 star .85 - couldn't get on field, left team
DB Anthony Covington - 3 star .85 - ditto
WR Jaylan Barbour - 3 star .85 - 11th on team in receptions
ATH Nikia Cathy - 3 star .84 - couldn't get on field, left team
RB Josh Boyd - 3 star .82 - back up entire career
RB Terrance Upshaw - 3 star .81 - back up entire career
TE Brandon Walton - 3 star .80 - couldn't get on field, left team

Exceptions to the rule. So was App last year btw. App was the ONLY team in the bottom half of the G5 as far as team talent to win a CC or share one anyway. Also one of very few to have a winning record. The star thing matters a lot for most teams even at our level. Only Navy that has no scholarship limit was probably the bigger outlier that App.


http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Footbal...tComposite

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...son-020116

But what annoys me to no end is the annual lazy narrative that the recruiting rankings at the center of Signing Day are meaningless. A favorite trick is to hold up someone like Houston Texans star J.J. Watt (former two-star recruit) or 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota (three stars) as an indictment of the entire system. Or a school like Boise State that’s won at a high level or without a host of blue-chippers. Or Texas, which has essentially done the opposite.

But what these critics hold up as “evidence,” anyone with a basic understanding of statistics calls “outliers.”
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2017 01:09 PM by JCGSU.)
01-18-2017 01:02 PM
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TrueBlueAlum Offline
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Post: #22
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
We may end up with a few late signees to fill our class, but we have addressed a few areas of need. Still need some more RB's.
01-18-2017 01:33 PM
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APPrising Offline
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Post: #23
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 01:02 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(01-17-2017 08:15 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  Of course recruiting players with multiple stars gets the alumni talking, but I don't put much stock in them. App seems to have a lot of luck recruiting players with few stars.

QB Taylor lamb - 2 stars .78 - Pretty decent QB
RB Marcus Cox - 2 stars .77 - Ditto - App career rushing leader
OLB Devan Stringer - 2 star .77 - started as True Sophomore - 3rd on team in tackles
CB Clifton Duck - 2 stars .75 - Sunbelt Freshman DPOY - USA Today & Football Writers Assn of America Freshman AA Teams
RB / KR Darrynton Evans - barely 2 stars .74 - lowest rated player in 2016 class - 22.5 yds per kick return - 815 All Purpose yards as a Freshman - All Bowl Team Special Teams Selection
ILB Eric Boggs - barely 2 Stars .73 - Started True Freshman - 2nd Team All Sunbelt - App leading tackler
OL Parker Collins - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
OL Colby Gossett - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
RB Jalin Moore - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Latrell Gibbs as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - 2016 Sunbelt Offensive POY
CB Latrell Gibbs - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Jalin Moore as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - Started as true freshman - 1st team All Sunbelt CB in '15 - 5th nationally in INT's

On the other hand
DB Treyon Garnette - 3 star .85 - couldn't get on field, left team
DB Anthony Covington - 3 star .85 - ditto
WR Jaylan Barbour - 3 star .85 - 11th on team in receptions
ATH Nikia Cathy - 3 star .84 - couldn't get on field, left team
RB Josh Boyd - 3 star .82 - back up entire career
RB Terrance Upshaw - 3 star .81 - back up entire career
TE Brandon Walton - 3 star .80 - couldn't get on field, left team

Exceptions to the rule. So was App last year btw. App was the ONLY team in the bottom half of the G5 as far as team talent to win a CC or share one anyway. Also one of very few to have a winning record. The star thing matters a lot for most teams even at our level. Only Navy that has no scholarship limit was probably the bigger outlier that App.


http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Footbal...tComposite

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...son-020116

But what annoys me to no end is the annual lazy narrative that the recruiting rankings at the center of Signing Day are meaningless. A favorite trick is to hold up someone like Houston Texans star J.J. Watt (former two-star recruit) or 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota (three stars) as an indictment of the entire system. Or a school like Boise State that’s won at a high level or without a host of blue-chippers. Or Texas, which has essentially done the opposite.

But what these critics hold up as “evidence,” anyone with a basic understanding of statistics calls “outliers.”

So what I'm hearing you say, is that App State is the JJ Watt of college football. That's very kind of you, thanks!
01-18-2017 01:35 PM
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TrueBlueAlum Offline
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Post: #24
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 01:35 PM)APPrising Wrote:  So what I'm hearing you say, is that App State is the JJ Watt of college football. That's very kind of you, thanks!

He's been re-hashing this same argument for weeks over on our board. Don't get him started. Funny thing is most of us agree with him, it's just not a cause for major concern yet.
01-18-2017 01:37 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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Post: #25
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-17-2017 02:08 PM)moehler Wrote:  
(01-17-2017 01:33 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  How's recruiting going? Coming down the home stretch I'm satisfied with Troy's recruiting. If we sign 25, we have 7 more spots open for commitments/LOIs. One of my favorite times of the year!

http://247sports.com/Season/2017-Footbal...erence=SBC

I agree, love this time of year. As far as App, really quite, don't know if that's a good thing or not, on paper atleast it looks like a really good class, of course still got a month to go, never know whats going to happen

There are a couple of guys who are almost sure fire contributors. Dietrich and the DT who was committed to Boston College before flipping to App State look like good gets.
01-18-2017 01:58 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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Post: #26
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 01:02 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(01-17-2017 08:15 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  Of course recruiting players with multiple stars gets the alumni talking, but I don't put much stock in them. App seems to have a lot of luck recruiting players with few stars.

QB Taylor lamb - 2 stars .78 - Pretty decent QB
RB Marcus Cox - 2 stars .77 - Ditto - App career rushing leader
OLB Devan Stringer - 2 star .77 - started as True Sophomore - 3rd on team in tackles
CB Clifton Duck - 2 stars .75 - Sunbelt Freshman DPOY - USA Today & Football Writers Assn of America Freshman AA Teams
RB / KR Darrynton Evans - barely 2 stars .74 - lowest rated player in 2016 class - 22.5 yds per kick return - 815 All Purpose yards as a Freshman - All Bowl Team Special Teams Selection
ILB Eric Boggs - barely 2 Stars .73 - Started True Freshman - 2nd Team All Sunbelt - App leading tackler
OL Parker Collins - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
OL Colby Gossett - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
RB Jalin Moore - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Latrell Gibbs as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - 2016 Sunbelt Offensive POY
CB Latrell Gibbs - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Jalin Moore as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - Started as true freshman - 1st team All Sunbelt CB in '15 - 5th nationally in INT's

On the other hand
DB Treyon Garnette - 3 star .85 - couldn't get on field, left team
DB Anthony Covington - 3 star .85 - ditto
WR Jaylan Barbour - 3 star .85 - 11th on team in receptions
ATH Nikia Cathy - 3 star .84 - couldn't get on field, left team
RB Josh Boyd - 3 star .82 - back up entire career
RB Terrance Upshaw - 3 star .81 - back up entire career
TE Brandon Walton - 3 star .80 - couldn't get on field, left team

Exceptions to the rule. So was App last year btw. App was the ONLY team in the bottom half of the G5 as far as team talent to win a CC or share one anyway. Also one of very few to have a winning record. The star thing matters a lot for most teams even at our level. Only Navy that has no scholarship limit was probably the bigger outlier that App.


http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Footbal...tComposite

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...son-020116

But what annoys me to no end is the annual lazy narrative that the recruiting rankings at the center of Signing Day are meaningless. A favorite trick is to hold up someone like Houston Texans star J.J. Watt (former two-star recruit) or 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota (three stars) as an indictment of the entire system. Or a school like Boise State that’s won at a high level or without a host of blue-chippers. Or Texas, which has essentially done the opposite.

But what these critics hold up as “evidence,” anyone with a basic understanding of statistics calls “outliers.”

What this is an example of is that coaching is more important in the development of players who may be underdeveloped in High School, thus missing out on the opportunity to attend a P5 school and play. Gossett and Collins could start at several P5 schools in their current stature, however coming in they weren't as developed as the man-children you see go to SEC and Big 10 schools.
01-18-2017 02:01 PM
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_x_ Offline
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Post: #27
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
Our class is full of mostly all HS kids. But the staff is scrambling hard right now for at least one Juco OL. Had two on campus last weekend, neither of which committed and have sent out two more offers since then.

After a winless Sun Belt campaign in 2016 I'm hoping we can hold onto first in the recruiting rankings come signing day. I'll take any kind of victory we can get at this point.
01-18-2017 02:26 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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Post: #28
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 02:26 PM)_x_ Wrote:  Our class is full of mostly all HS kids. But the staff is scrambling hard right now for at least one Juco OL. Had two on campus last weekend, neither of which committed and have sent out two more offers since then.

After a winless Sun Belt campaign in 2016 I'm hoping we can hold onto first in the recruiting rankings come signing day. I'll take any kind of victory we can get at this point.

Withers left JMU in a position to win a National Championship this season. I wouldn't stress about him getting talent into San Marcos.
01-18-2017 02:39 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 01:02 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(01-17-2017 08:15 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  Of course recruiting players with multiple stars gets the alumni talking, but I don't put much stock in them. App seems to have a lot of luck recruiting players with few stars.

QB Taylor lamb - 2 stars .78 - Pretty decent QB
RB Marcus Cox - 2 stars .77 - Ditto - App career rushing leader
OLB Devan Stringer - 2 star .77 - started as True Sophomore - 3rd on team in tackles
CB Clifton Duck - 2 stars .75 - Sunbelt Freshman DPOY - USA Today & Football Writers Assn of America Freshman AA Teams
RB / KR Darrynton Evans - barely 2 stars .74 - lowest rated player in 2016 class - 22.5 yds per kick return - 815 All Purpose yards as a Freshman - All Bowl Team Special Teams Selection
ILB Eric Boggs - barely 2 Stars .73 - Started True Freshman - 2nd Team All Sunbelt - App leading tackler
OL Parker Collins - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
OL Colby Gossett - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
RB Jalin Moore - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Latrell Gibbs as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - 2016 Sunbelt Offensive POY
CB Latrell Gibbs - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Jalin Moore as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - Started as true freshman - 1st team All Sunbelt CB in '15 - 5th nationally in INT's

On the other hand
DB Treyon Garnette - 3 star .85 - couldn't get on field, left team
DB Anthony Covington - 3 star .85 - ditto
WR Jaylan Barbour - 3 star .85 - 11th on team in receptions
ATH Nikia Cathy - 3 star .84 - couldn't get on field, left team
RB Josh Boyd - 3 star .82 - back up entire career
RB Terrance Upshaw - 3 star .81 - back up entire career
TE Brandon Walton - 3 star .80 - couldn't get on field, left team

Exceptions to the rule. So was App last year btw. App was the ONLY team in the bottom half of the G5 as far as team talent to win a CC or share one anyway. Also one of very few to have a winning record. The star thing matters a lot for most teams even at our level. Only Navy that has no scholarship limit was probably the bigger outlier that App.


http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Footbal...tComposite

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...son-020116

But what annoys me to no end is the annual lazy narrative that the recruiting rankings at the center of Signing Day are meaningless. A favorite trick is to hold up someone like Houston Texans star J.J. Watt (former two-star recruit) or 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota (three stars) as an indictment of the entire system. Or a school like Boise State that’s won at a high level or without a host of blue-chippers. Or Texas, which has essentially done the opposite.

But what these critics hold up as “evidence,” anyone with a basic understanding of statistics calls “outliers.”

We had this exact conversation last year, with the same "exception is the rule" argument. Only the exceptions are not the rule, and the recruiting rankings do carry some weight. They are not the end all be all, but they matter. Basically, if your team does well without top recruits, you won't believe in the system. If your team has top recruits and plays at a high level, you believe in the system.
01-18-2017 02:43 PM
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moehler Offline
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Post: #30
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 02:43 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(01-18-2017 01:02 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(01-17-2017 08:15 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  Of course recruiting players with multiple stars gets the alumni talking, but I don't put much stock in them. App seems to have a lot of luck recruiting players with few stars.

QB Taylor lamb - 2 stars .78 - Pretty decent QB
RB Marcus Cox - 2 stars .77 - Ditto - App career rushing leader
OLB Devan Stringer - 2 star .77 - started as True Sophomore - 3rd on team in tackles
CB Clifton Duck - 2 stars .75 - Sunbelt Freshman DPOY - USA Today & Football Writers Assn of America Freshman AA Teams
RB / KR Darrynton Evans - barely 2 stars .74 - lowest rated player in 2016 class - 22.5 yds per kick return - 815 All Purpose yards as a Freshman - All Bowl Team Special Teams Selection
ILB Eric Boggs - barely 2 Stars .73 - Started True Freshman - 2nd Team All Sunbelt - App leading tackler
OL Parker Collins - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
OL Colby Gossett - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
RB Jalin Moore - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Latrell Gibbs as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - 2016 Sunbelt Offensive POY
CB Latrell Gibbs - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Jalin Moore as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - Started as true freshman - 1st team All Sunbelt CB in '15 - 5th nationally in INT's

On the other hand
DB Treyon Garnette - 3 star .85 - couldn't get on field, left team
DB Anthony Covington - 3 star .85 - ditto
WR Jaylan Barbour - 3 star .85 - 11th on team in receptions
ATH Nikia Cathy - 3 star .84 - couldn't get on field, left team
RB Josh Boyd - 3 star .82 - back up entire career
RB Terrance Upshaw - 3 star .81 - back up entire career
TE Brandon Walton - 3 star .80 - couldn't get on field, left team

Exceptions to the rule. So was App last year btw. App was the ONLY team in the bottom half of the G5 as far as team talent to win a CC or share one anyway. Also one of very few to have a winning record. The star thing matters a lot for most teams even at our level. Only Navy that has no scholarship limit was probably the bigger outlier that App.


http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Footbal...tComposite

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...son-020116

But what annoys me to no end is the annual lazy narrative that the recruiting rankings at the center of Signing Day are meaningless. A favorite trick is to hold up someone like Houston Texans star J.J. Watt (former two-star recruit) or 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota (three stars) as an indictment of the entire system. Or a school like Boise State that’s won at a high level or without a host of blue-chippers. Or Texas, which has essentially done the opposite.

But what these critics hold up as “evidence,” anyone with a basic understanding of statistics calls “outliers.”

We had this exact conversation last year, with the same "exception is the rule" argument. Only the exceptions are not the rule, and the recruiting rankings do carry some weight. They are not the end all be all, but they matter. Basically, if your team does well without top recruits, you won't believe in the system. If your team has top recruits and plays at a high level, you believe in the system.

yep, that pretty much sums it up
01-18-2017 03:29 PM
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JCGSU Offline
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Post: #31
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 01:35 PM)APPrising Wrote:  
(01-18-2017 01:02 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(01-17-2017 08:15 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  Of course recruiting players with multiple stars gets the alumni talking, but I don't put much stock in them. App seems to have a lot of luck recruiting players with few stars.

QB Taylor lamb - 2 stars .78 - Pretty decent QB
RB Marcus Cox - 2 stars .77 - Ditto - App career rushing leader
OLB Devan Stringer - 2 star .77 - started as True Sophomore - 3rd on team in tackles
CB Clifton Duck - 2 stars .75 - Sunbelt Freshman DPOY - USA Today & Football Writers Assn of America Freshman AA Teams
RB / KR Darrynton Evans - barely 2 stars .74 - lowest rated player in 2016 class - 22.5 yds per kick return - 815 All Purpose yards as a Freshman - All Bowl Team Special Teams Selection
ILB Eric Boggs - barely 2 Stars .73 - Started True Freshman - 2nd Team All Sunbelt - App leading tackler
OL Parker Collins - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
OL Colby Gossett - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
RB Jalin Moore - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Latrell Gibbs as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - 2016 Sunbelt Offensive POY
CB Latrell Gibbs - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Jalin Moore as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - Started as true freshman - 1st team All Sunbelt CB in '15 - 5th nationally in INT's

On the other hand
DB Treyon Garnette - 3 star .85 - couldn't get on field, left team
DB Anthony Covington - 3 star .85 - ditto
WR Jaylan Barbour - 3 star .85 - 11th on team in receptions
ATH Nikia Cathy - 3 star .84 - couldn't get on field, left team
RB Josh Boyd - 3 star .82 - back up entire career
RB Terrance Upshaw - 3 star .81 - back up entire career
TE Brandon Walton - 3 star .80 - couldn't get on field, left team

Exceptions to the rule. So was App last year btw. App was the ONLY team in the bottom half of the G5 as far as team talent to win a CC or share one anyway. Also one of very few to have a winning record. The star thing matters a lot for most teams even at our level. Only Navy that has no scholarship limit was probably the bigger outlier that App.


http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Footbal...tComposite

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...son-020116

But what annoys me to no end is the annual lazy narrative that the recruiting rankings at the center of Signing Day are meaningless. A favorite trick is to hold up someone like Houston Texans star J.J. Watt (former two-star recruit) or 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota (three stars) as an indictment of the entire system. Or a school like Boise State that’s won at a high level or without a host of blue-chippers. Or Texas, which has essentially done the opposite.

But what these critics hold up as “evidence,” anyone with a basic understanding of statistics calls “outliers.”

So what I'm hearing you say, is that App State is the JJ Watt of college football. That's very kind of you, thanks!

Actually yes so far.
01-18-2017 03:58 PM
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JCGSU Offline
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Post: #32
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 01:37 PM)TrueBlueAlum Wrote:  
(01-18-2017 01:35 PM)APPrising Wrote:  So what I'm hearing you say, is that App State is the JJ Watt of college football. That's very kind of you, thanks!

He's been re-hashing this same argument for weeks over on our board. Don't get him started. Funny thing is most of us agree with him, it's just not a cause for major concern yet.

Lol yes no concern. You need to check the board again most are now especially with so few signed and a big lack of depth at RB and QB now.
01-18-2017 03:59 PM
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JCGSU Offline
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Post: #33
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 02:43 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(01-18-2017 01:02 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(01-17-2017 08:15 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  Of course recruiting players with multiple stars gets the alumni talking, but I don't put much stock in them. App seems to have a lot of luck recruiting players with few stars.

QB Taylor lamb - 2 stars .78 - Pretty decent QB
RB Marcus Cox - 2 stars .77 - Ditto - App career rushing leader
OLB Devan Stringer - 2 star .77 - started as True Sophomore - 3rd on team in tackles
CB Clifton Duck - 2 stars .75 - Sunbelt Freshman DPOY - USA Today & Football Writers Assn of America Freshman AA Teams
RB / KR Darrynton Evans - barely 2 stars .74 - lowest rated player in 2016 class - 22.5 yds per kick return - 815 All Purpose yards as a Freshman - All Bowl Team Special Teams Selection
ILB Eric Boggs - barely 2 Stars .73 - Started True Freshman - 2nd Team All Sunbelt - App leading tackler
OL Parker Collins - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
OL Colby Gossett - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
RB Jalin Moore - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Latrell Gibbs as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - 2016 Sunbelt Offensive POY
CB Latrell Gibbs - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Jalin Moore as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - Started as true freshman - 1st team All Sunbelt CB in '15 - 5th nationally in INT's

On the other hand
DB Treyon Garnette - 3 star .85 - couldn't get on field, left team
DB Anthony Covington - 3 star .85 - ditto
WR Jaylan Barbour - 3 star .85 - 11th on team in receptions
ATH Nikia Cathy - 3 star .84 - couldn't get on field, left team
RB Josh Boyd - 3 star .82 - back up entire career
RB Terrance Upshaw - 3 star .81 - back up entire career
TE Brandon Walton - 3 star .80 - couldn't get on field, left team

Exceptions to the rule. So was App last year btw. App was the ONLY team in the bottom half of the G5 as far as team talent to win a CC or share one anyway. Also one of very few to have a winning record. The star thing matters a lot for most teams even at our level. Only Navy that has no scholarship limit was probably the bigger outlier that App.


http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Footbal...tComposite

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...son-020116

But what annoys me to no end is the annual lazy narrative that the recruiting rankings at the center of Signing Day are meaningless. A favorite trick is to hold up someone like Houston Texans star J.J. Watt (former two-star recruit) or 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota (three stars) as an indictment of the entire system. Or a school like Boise State that’s won at a high level or without a host of blue-chippers. Or Texas, which has essentially done the opposite.

But what these critics hold up as “evidence,” anyone with a basic understanding of statistics calls “outliers.”

We had this exact conversation last year, with the same "exception is the rule" argument. Only the exceptions are not the rule, and the recruiting rankings do carry some weight. They are not the end all be all, but they matter. Basically, if your team does well without top recruits, you won't believe in the system. If your team has top recruits and plays at a high level, you believe in the system.

Or you can take a basic stats class or just google the avalanche of articles where people show you how relevant they are whether it comes to winning, NFL, or being an All American. To each his own. There are very few teams that have low current team rankings and win. So once again App and Navy outliers the other 30 or so teams in the bottom half of the G5 the norm. Not one 10 game winner and one shared CC....hmmm

Bottom rated teams in the G5...

REGULAR SEASON TEAM WINS LOSSES
USU 3 9
UMASS 2 10
Rice 3 9
CMU 6 6
NM 8 4
UH 6 7
UNLV 4 8
USA 6 6
OHIO 8 5
ODU 9 3
FIU 4 8
BallSt 4 8
UNT 5 7
BUFFALO 2 10
EMU 7 5
Kent 3 9
CHARLOTTE 4 8
App 9 3
GaSt 3 9
TXST 2 10
ULM 4 8
Wyoming 8 5
Navy 9 3
UTEP 4 8
NMSU 3 9
Idaho 8 4
134 181
0.425396825

Yep so many overachievers there. Good job for App I would give the coaching staff another raise. Nothing involving humans is 100% and just because it is not does not mean you can just dismiss it or say it is not a great predictor of success or failure. Now raise your hand if you dont care about being on that list. I see App holding up one trophy and nobody else.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2017 04:15 PM by JCGSU.)
01-18-2017 04:06 PM
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FloridaJag Offline
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RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-17-2017 06:57 PM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  In a concerning, yet expected, development, UTA still has yet to sign anyone.

Let us pray.
01-18-2017 04:19 PM
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FloridaJag Offline
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Exclamation RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-17-2017 08:42 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  USA will have a very small class this year due to so many transfers and blue shirts last year. We always add a couple solid commits right around signing day, I expect the same this year.

With only 11 scholarships available in 2017 class, South Alabama must 'make them count'

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/...river_home
01-18-2017 04:23 PM
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AppManDG Offline
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RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 01:02 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(01-17-2017 08:15 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  Of course recruiting players with multiple stars gets the alumni talking, but I don't put much stock in them. App seems to have a lot of luck recruiting players with few stars.

QB Taylor lamb - 2 stars .78 - Pretty decent QB
RB Marcus Cox - 2 stars .77 - Ditto - App career rushing leader
OLB Devan Stringer - 2 star .77 - started as True Sophomore - 3rd on team in tackles
CB Clifton Duck - 2 stars .75 - Sunbelt Freshman DPOY - USA Today & Football Writers Assn of America Freshman AA Teams
RB / KR Darrynton Evans - barely 2 stars .74 - lowest rated player in 2016 class - 22.5 yds per kick return - 815 All Purpose yards as a Freshman - All Bowl Team Special Teams Selection
ILB Eric Boggs - barely 2 Stars .73 - Started True Freshman - 2nd Team All Sunbelt - App leading tackler
OL Parker Collins - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
OL Colby Gossett - barely 2 star .70 - 1st Team All Sunbelt
RB Jalin Moore - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Latrell Gibbs as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - 2016 Sunbelt Offensive POY
CB Latrell Gibbs - barely 2 stars .70 (tied with Jalin Moore as lowest rated recruit in '14 class) - Started as true freshman - 1st team All Sunbelt CB in '15 - 5th nationally in INT's

On the other hand
DB Treyon Garnette - 3 star .85 - couldn't get on field, left team
DB Anthony Covington - 3 star .85 - ditto
WR Jaylan Barbour - 3 star .85 - 11th on team in receptions
ATH Nikia Cathy - 3 star .84 - couldn't get on field, left team
RB Josh Boyd - 3 star .82 - back up entire career
RB Terrance Upshaw - 3 star .81 - back up entire career
TE Brandon Walton - 3 star .80 - couldn't get on field, left team

Exceptions to the rule. So was App last year btw. App was the ONLY team in the bottom half of the G5 as far as team talent to win a CC or share one anyway. Also one of very few to have a winning record. The star thing matters a lot for most teams even at our level. Only Navy that has no scholarship limit was probably the bigger outlier that App.


http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Footbal...tComposite

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...son-020116

But what annoys me to no end is the annual lazy narrative that the recruiting rankings at the center of Signing Day are meaningless. A favorite trick is to hold up someone like Houston Texans star J.J. Watt (former two-star recruit) or 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota (three stars) as an indictment of the entire system. Or a school like Boise State that’s won at a high level or without a host of blue-chippers. Or Texas, which has essentially done the opposite.

But what these critics hold up as “evidence,” anyone with a basic understanding of statistics calls “outliers.”

Not an exception at all. The fact of the matter is very few players below 4 stars are sufficiently evaluated. When they are it's by some guy who has probably never snapped on a helmet on past Pop Warner sitting behind a computer screen watching tape. There are a ton of kids who can't make it to camps and never get the opportunity to show their skills. I put far more trust in an actual coach's decision to offer a young man based on what he has seen firsthand. App's staff has been masterful at finding diamonds in the rough at camps. You might could make a case App's coaches just work everyone else, but I don't think so. You could put a majority of 3 and 2 star rated players in a paper bag and dump them out without the stars attached and you couldn't tell a bit of difference. Of the 18 rated players (some played college before the star system was introduced) starting for last year's Super Bowl Champion Broncos, 8 were two star rated.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2017 05:08 PM by AppManDG.)
01-18-2017 05:05 PM
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LatahCounty Offline
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Post: #37
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
Recruiting rankings and winning -- correlation or causation?

Take a high school kid and tell the scouting services he's deciding between Alabama, Georgia & Florida State. Automatic 4 stars at least. Take that exact same kid and tell them he's deciding between Idaho, Montana and New Mexico State. 2 stars, maybe 3 if he really, really stands out. And hey, that first group of schools wins a lot more than the 2nd group, so the ranking services must be great.

I've seen tons of guys get downgraded as soon as they sign with Idaho. And the services are right to be suddenly suspicious -- if the guy is so great, why isn't he going to a better program? But that doesn't mean they're actually "evaluating talent." They're just playing the odds.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2017 05:45 PM by LatahCounty.)
01-18-2017 05:45 PM
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panama Offline
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RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
Shawn Elliott GSU @CoachSElliott
Locked and loaded...just landed the trigger man!! #STATEment17 #AtownProwl #bethechange
5:33 PM - 18 Jan 2017


http://247sports.com/Player/Jack-Walker-78324
01-18-2017 05:57 PM
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JCGSU Offline
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Post: #39
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 05:45 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  Recruiting rankings and winning -- correlation or causation?

Take a high school kid and tell the scouting services he's deciding between Alabama, Georgia & Florida State. Automatic 4 stars at least. Take that exact same kid and tell them he's deciding between Idaho, Montana and New Mexico State. 2 stars, maybe 3 if he really, really stands out. And hey, that first group of schools wins a lot more than the 2nd group, so the ranking services must be great.

I've seen tons of guys get downgraded as soon as they sign with Idaho. And the services are right to be suddenly suspicious -- if the guy is so great, why isn't he going to a better program? But that doesn't mean they're actually "evaluating talent." They're just playing the odds.

Winning teams were getting top talent well before recruiting rankings. The kind of offers a kid is getting does play a part as well it should. Saban is not going to give a kid that is not a top player with all the measurables a scholarship. Where a kid narrows his choices has little to do with the ranking and I doubt you can show me examples. Regardless of the schools he is choosing top schools will still offer. Your scenario makes no sense. Often offers is what gets an unranked kid finally ranked as well not the other way around. There are kids in the 2019 class ranked without any service knowing what schools they are seriously considering.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2017 06:08 PM by JCGSU.)
01-18-2017 06:03 PM
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LatahCounty Offline
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Post: #40
RE: SBC Recruiting Roundup
(01-18-2017 06:03 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  Winning teams were getting top talent well before recruiting rankings.

Correct. And while Nick Saban isn't going on Rivals to figure out which kids he should recruit, Rivals is definitely checking to find out who Saban is recruiting and updating accordingly. And then the rankings get changed based on which programs are recruiting a kid. And then, voila, the winning programs also happened to have great rankings.

So while I'm very interested to see which schools are offering a kid and when my school snaps someone away from another program I'm probably more excited than otherwise, I could not possibly care less how many stars anyone has.
01-18-2017 06:19 PM
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