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Poll: How far does Gonzaga go?
This poll is closed.
National champs 0% 0 0%
National Title Game 1.82% 1 1.82%
Final Four 14.55% 8 14.55%
Elite 8 41.82% 23 41.82%
Sweet 16 32.73% 18 32.73%
Round of 32 7.27% 4 7.27%
Round of 64 1.82% 1 1.82%
Opening Round 0% 0 0%
Miss the Dance 0% 0 0%
Total 55 vote(s) 100%
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How far does Gonzaga go?
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #61
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
Gonzaga looked very tight in the final minutes in Spokane against the Mormons. An aggressive team will bite them. I would take an 8 or 9 seed Oklahoma State or Wichita State to pull the upset.
02-26-2017 02:03 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #62
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
Gonzaga's tournament success over the last 20 is comparable to what Xavier has done in that time span.

Few you say has only won 21 tournament games? That is a load of games. Xavier has won 18 games in the same timeframe as Gonzaga and they moved onto the Big East.

I've said it before the WCC is quite similar to the A10 when you look at the traditions in that conference. BYU and Pacific add some depth. BYU is 14th all time in wins.

Basketball Tiers:

Power (P5 + Big East)
High Major (A10, WCC, MVC)
Group of Five
Mid Major

Between the Power, High Mid's, G5's 14 conferences only 1 is not in the Top 14 of the RPI and that is CUSA which is a hot mess.

Gonzaga is a major program but its not a blueblood. Its not too different than the programs that comprise the Big East.
02-26-2017 03:01 AM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #63
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
The WCC is a poorman's A-10. There's a big 3 and then a sharp dropoff. Once Randy Bennett leaves SMC, BYU for another conference and perhaps once Few retires or leaves, the WCC will be back to 1-bid irrelevance.

As for Gonzaga, if they want to be taken serious to a major degree, they have to do better.
02-26-2017 03:35 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #64
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
(02-26-2017 03:35 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  The WCC is a poorman's A-10. There's a big 3 and then a sharp dropoff. Once Randy Bennett leaves SMC, BYU for another conference and perhaps once Few retires or leaves, the WCC will be back to 1-bid irrelevance.

As for Gonzaga, if they want to be taken serious to a major degree, they have to do better.

There is a drop off in any conference after the top couple of schools are accounted for.

Few has done better than Xavier in the tournament since he's been coach.

You're grasping for invisible straws here.
02-26-2017 09:05 AM
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C2__ Offline
Caltex2
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Post: #65
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
There's a dropoff of a ledge in the A-10. There are, in any given year, at least 6-8 teams in A-10 that are a threat to win the auto-bid and win a game or two in the Dance. There's a drop off a cliff in the WCC. There's not a single quality team after the Big 3 and if they won the auto-bid, it'd be a major upset. None of them, except San Diego in a couple of flukes, has even made the NCAA Tournament in 15 years. Take out Pepperdine and I don't think a single team outside the Big 3 has made it to the Dance since 1998.

And saying Few has done better than Xavier is debateable. They don't have the same amount of appearances and I'll have to check the average seed rating, which I think skews toward Gonzaga. Xavier has actually overachieved regularly in the Tournament, something Gonzaga has done once in 15 years not counting first round matchups.
02-26-2017 11:51 AM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #66
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
(02-26-2017 09:05 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(02-26-2017 03:35 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  The WCC is a poorman's A-10. There's a big 3 and then a sharp dropoff. Once Randy Bennett leaves SMC, BYU for another conference and perhaps once Few retires or leaves, the WCC will be back to 1-bid irrelevance.

As for Gonzaga, if they want to be taken serious to a major degree, they have to do better.

There is a drop off in any conference after the top couple of schools are accounted for.

Few has done better than Xavier in the tournament since he's been coach.

You're grasping for invisible straws here.

WCC? Gonzaga check. Johnny come lately Saint Mary's check. Historically middle of the pack MWC school BYU. Meh. Do any other schools in the WCC average 500 fans a game? Go to Wikipedia and look at the facilities. My high school gym seats more than every school in the WCC except BYU.
Cheers!
02-26-2017 10:47 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #67
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
Be more wary that Holmoe doesn't find a way to get his guys into the tournament because they beat the #1 team in the country on the road. Though, to be fair, seeing all the other bubble teams looking like garbage the last week, maybe we need some new faces?
02-27-2017 12:31 AM
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C2__ Offline
Caltex2
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Post: #68
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
(02-26-2017 10:47 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  WCC? Gonzaga check. Johnny come lately Saint Mary's check. Historically middle of the pack MWC school BYU. Meh. Do any other schools in the WCC average 500 fans a game? Go to Wikipedia and look at the facilities. My high school gym seats more than every school in the WCC except BYU.
Cheers!

BYU--middle of the pack? BYU has generally been upper echelon in whatever conference they were in, certainly in the MWC.
02-27-2017 08:27 AM
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C2__ Offline
Caltex2
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Post: #69
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
It's showtime...all they have to do is make the Final Four and I won't say anything.
03-12-2017 07:09 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #70
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
Based on what you've said about Gonzaga on this board, C2, I expect your bracket to have the Zags losing to South Dakota State. 07-coffee3
03-12-2017 07:15 PM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #71
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
I could have seen them losing to a 16-seed in a year like this where they are exceptionally strong though I think they caught a break with the other SDSU. But I strongly think they could be in trouble against Midwestern--err... I mean Northwestern. Given their history of postseason flops, I'd be more surprised if they won against Northwestern than if they took care of business.
03-12-2017 07:26 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #72
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
(03-12-2017 07:26 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I could have seen them losing to a 16-seed in a year like this where they are exceptionally strong though I think they caught a break with the other SDSU. But I strongly think they could be in trouble against Midwestern--err... I mean Northwestern. Given their history of postseason flops, I'd be more surprised if they won against Northwestern than if they took care of business.
I really thought Texas Southern would get them down to the wire if matched up.

They'll smoke Northwestern though. I'd be flabbergasted if Gonzaga doesn't make Sweet 16.
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2017 07:37 PM by IWokeUpLikeThis.)
03-12-2017 07:35 PM
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SouthEastAlaska Offline
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Post: #73
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
After examining their bracket I think they really only have 2 teams that can keep them from a run to the final 4, West Virginia and Arizona.

So it just really depends on who beats who, but if they have to play either of those 2 it's probably the end of their tournament run!
03-12-2017 09:45 PM
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C2__ Offline
Caltex2
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Post: #74
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
Based on what metric? Going by the concept of the chalk, that the higher seeded team should win each game, his record should be at bare minimum 21-17 but that's merely assuming the brackets hold. Looking between the numbers and prorating that idea round by round, he should have more wins and appearances in the Elite 8 and Final Four. He only has one and as a top 4 seed has only fulfilled his seedline chalk 2/5 tries.

And that of course ignores another bit of analytics, which is including clear chokes despite the seedline, particularly last year and Adam Morrison's last game in 2006.

Gonzaga is an amazing success story of a scrappy little underdog reaching national acclaim and respect. If they want any more respect than that, they're gonna have to earn it. And if they lose before the Sweet 16, they don't get to fall back on that idea of being a cute little overachiever, those days are over. They whined for years about being taken seriously and not being treated as a minor program, so if they want that prestige, they're gonna have to earn it.
03-13-2017 03:49 AM
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UpStreamRedTeam Offline
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Post: #75
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
(02-12-2017 12:18 PM)Go College Sports Wrote:  
(02-12-2017 12:01 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I'm afraid that's not true. They've lost as the better seed five times, not including the Adam Morrison crying loss to UCLA when they were clearly were the better team nor last year. Other than the 8/9 matchup, they've only won three games as a lower seeded team since the Calvary years, including two last year. 10-6 as a top 4 seed, including 3 failures to make the Sweet 16

Few was an assistant to Monson, so yes he had something to do with Calvary's development but it is a reasonable hypothesis to speculate he would have progressed with Few or another coach.

I'm not saying Few is a bad coach. He's good at finding players and fitting them into his system, then excelling. But his Tournament record, basically .500 minus the Calvary years, more or less proves he squeezes more orange juice out of the orange than is even there. When they get to the Tourament, they can compete with anyone but rarely are dominant over anyone except low seeded first round fodder. And even that isn't full proof, they came within a hair or losing to Southern as a 1-seed.

He deserves praise for what he built but criticism regardless of what level his program started at. Just do it...make the Final Four and I'll gladly pipe down and even do a significant or avatar bet.

I'm afraid that it is exactly true. Few has won 21 tournament games at Gonzaga. A team with the seeds Gonzaga has received over the last 17 seasons would be expected to win 21.19 games. So he's underachieved by a whopping 0.19 games.

But you're cherry picking so I know that won't matter.

In terms of expected wins by seed Few seems to under AND over achieve.
03-13-2017 10:37 AM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #76
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
Few is 7-5 as a double digit seed (by default, he should be 0-5) and 10-6 as a top 4 seed. Ignoring upsets in the bracket, he should have a 15-6 record but including them, you can add two extra wins, a Final Four appearance and a trip to the national title game.

So yes, he overachieves as a double digit seed and underachieves as a top 4 seed.
03-13-2017 02:18 PM
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Post: #77
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
The poll is closing soon, cast your votes now if you haven't.
03-15-2017 07:24 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #78
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
(03-13-2017 02:18 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Few is 7-5 as a double digit seed (by default, he should be 0-5) and 10-6 as a top 4 seed. Ignoring upsets in the bracket, he should have a 15-6 record but including them, you can add two extra wins, a Final Four appearance and a trip to the national title game.

So yes, he overachieves as a double digit seed and underachieves as a top 4 seed.

Wouldn't you expect that of most coaches? If you are a #1 seed, it's impossible to overachieve, and if you are a #12 seed (which is about as low as you can get unless you are in a perennial one bid league) it's nearly impossible to underachieve.

The problem seems to be more with fans' perceptions than Gonzaga's (and Few's) performance.
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2017 10:11 AM by ken d.)
03-16-2017 10:10 AM
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C2__ Offline
Caltex2
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Post: #79
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
On average, he fails to make the Sweet 16 half the time as a top 4 seed. And considering he was only as low as a 4 once, that's not very good.
03-16-2017 11:20 AM
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C2__ Offline
Caltex2
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Post: #80
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
The Northwestern game should be real interesting.
03-17-2017 12:52 AM
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