(12-31-2016 02:25 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 02:19 PM)BinghamptonNed Wrote:  

(12-30-2016 09:02 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  There is no scenario where we get an at large with this team, but I admire the optimism of those who believe otherwise.

that is a stupid statement:

Scenario 1- We run the table and lose by 2 points in the conference tournament going 15-1 in the league 27-4 on the season with road wins at SMU, Temple, and Cincy. I guarantee we are in...

there are probably four or five other scenarios

Not only are win in in that unlikely scenario we are a 5 seed or lower.

When I talk about scenarios, they don't include "if I win the lottery" or "if the Zombie apocalypse happens" or "if we do something with this team I don't ever remember happening before with our very best teams (only losing one game in a decent conference until the conference championship)" -- stuff like that. Should have clarified it, I guess.

I was talking about in the rational world. In that world, we win the conference championship, or we don't get in. Miracles happen, but those who expect them to happen to their sports teams are not generally your most rational thinking individuals.

If it happened, I would be very happy. I just don't see, rationally speaking, a scenario where it does with the team we have assembled. That's what I was saying. If you do, as I said earlier, you have my admiration for your optimism.

Any respectable team we lead for the entire game and beat this season should go take a long look in the mirror.

(12-31-2016 01:03 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(12-30-2016 10:07 PM)TubbyTime Wrote:  

(12-30-2016 09:02 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  There is no scenario where we get an at large with this team, but I admire the optimism of those who believe otherwise.

What if we come in second in the league, beat South Carolina tonight, and lose in the championship game of the conference tournament??

Thankfully SC was playing without their top player tonight. Them playing without Sindarius Thornwell would be like us playing with only one of the Lawsons.

If we finished second in the AAC and go to finals of tournament it would sadly mean that the AAC will be a 1 bid league.

But doubt that either SMU or UC will drop off that much the rest of the way. Seeing the AAC has 5 of the top 80 teams in the RPI i see a 2nd place finish very very very unlikely.

Thankfully for SC, Chad didn't play for Memphis

This Memphis team will not make the tournament, we don't have A center. If King Tut can play, maybe, big maybe. Big teams will exploit our weaknesses. We have 4 players, it really doesn't matter how good one of them is, NIT at best, and I hope I'm wrong.

I hope you are too...and I think we have 6 players and one of them might be a lot better than we know.

(12-31-2016 02:50 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 02:25 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 02:19 PM)BinghamptonNed Wrote:  

(12-30-2016 09:02 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  There is no scenario where we get an at large with this team, but I admire the optimism of those who believe otherwise.

that is a stupid statement:

Scenario 1- We run the table and lose by 2 points in the conference tournament going 15-1 in the league 27-4 on the season with road wins at SMU, Temple, and Cincy. I guarantee we are in...

there are probably four or five other scenarios

Not only are win in in that unlikely scenario we are a 5 seed or lower.

When I talk about scenarios, they don't include "if I win the lottery" or "if the Zombie apocalypse happens" or "if we do something with this team I don't ever remember happening before with our very best teams (only losing one game in a decent conference until the conference championship)" -- stuff like that. Should have clarified it, I guess.

I was talking about in the rational world. In that world, we win the conference championship, or we don't get in. Miracles happen, but those who expect them to happen to their sports teams are not generally your most rational thinking individuals.

If it happened, I would be very happy. I just don't see, rationally speaking, a scenario where it does with the team we have assembled. That's what I was saying. If you do, as I said earlier, you have my admiration for your optimism.

It would be tough - no doubt. Highly unlikely. COY worthy stuff.

It happens every year though that someone says "no chance at large" too early in the season. Before conference season really starts is too early for absolutes. There is a greater chance the AAC is a multiple-bid league, than there is that we don't get an at large. So finish 1st or 2nd in regular season. Who knows at this point?

But, yeah, I would call the NIT a very successful season this year.

(12-31-2016 08:13 PM)ItsDude Wrote:  I hope you are too...and I think we have 6 players and one of them might be a lot better than we know.

They have 4 IMO - Lawsons Markel Martin.

Randall Clergeot and Rivers have all shown flashes. I still think Kessee can be useful.

IF (enormous if) Karim gets cleared this week, they could reasonably have a somewhat functional 9 man rotation starting the new year.

Chad works his way back by mid-February and by March it's 10.

Still a lot of hurdles to get there, a lot of development needed

When we accept NIT at Memphis we have lost the battle and the war. If Tubby had contacted Charlie Moore within a week of taking the job, very possible we keep him. He is averaging 16 ppg on team that has Ivan Rabb and Jabari Bird; then sign one decent big (several available) and we probably make the Dance THIS YEAR.

But totally unrealistic to think about making it without winning conference tournament.

(12-31-2016 11:44 PM)tigers1125 Wrote:  When we accept NIT at Memphis we have lost the battle and the war. If Tubby had contacted Charlie Moore within a week of taking the job, very possible we keep him. He is averaging 16 ppg on team that has Ivan Rabb and Jabari Bird; then sign one decent big (several available) and we probably make the Dance THIS YEAR.

But totally unrealistic to think about making it without winning conference tournament.

I have to disagree about "the war". After the last few years, and the shape we were in coming into the year - most fans said the NIT would be a successful year. It is exactly about winning the war to make a step like this.

Ifs about recruiting are futile. We don't really know about Charlie coming here. And what "decent big" could we realistically have signed who would be better than the potential of Chad and Azab?

Accepting that we can't place in the top 2 during the conference regular season might be throwing in the towel on the battle, though.

(12-31-2016 11:41 PM)HoopDreams Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 08:13 PM)ItsDude Wrote:  I hope you are too...and I think we have 6 players and one of them might be a lot better than we know.

They have 4 IMO - Lawsons Markel Martin.

Randall Clergeot and Rivers have all shown flashes. I still think Kessee can be useful.

IF (enormous if) Karim gets cleared this week, they could reasonably have a somewhat functional 9 man rotation starting the new year.

Chad works his way back by mid-February and by March it's 10.

Still a lot of hurdles to get there, a lot of development needed

So we're not voluntarily undermanned then?

(01-01-2017 12:35 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 11:41 PM)HoopDreams Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 08:13 PM)ItsDude Wrote:  I hope you are too...and I think we have 6 players and one of them might be a lot better than we know.

They have 4 IMO - Lawsons Markel Martin.

Randall Clergeot and Rivers have all shown flashes. I still think Kessee can be useful.

IF (enormous if) Karim gets cleared this week, they could reasonably have a somewhat functional 9 man rotation starting the new year.

Chad works his way back by mid-February and by March it's 10.

Still a lot of hurdles to get there, a lot of development needed

So we're not voluntarily undermanned then?

Well needing 5 things to break right for a "somewhat functional" rotation isn't exactly my idea of loading all the chambers.

(01-01-2017 12:48 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  

(01-01-2017 12:35 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 11:41 PM)HoopDreams Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 08:13 PM)ItsDude Wrote:  I hope you are too...and I think we have 6 players and one of them might be a lot better than we know.

They have 4 IMO - Lawsons Markel Martin.

Randall Clergeot and Rivers have all shown flashes. I still think Kessee can be useful.

IF (enormous if) Karim gets cleared this week, they could reasonably have a somewhat functional 9 man rotation starting the new year.

Chad works his way back by mid-February and by March it's 10.

Still a lot of hurdles to get there, a lot of development needed

So we're not voluntarily undermanned then?

Well needing 5 things to break right for a "somewhat functional" rotation isn't exactly my idea of loading all the chambers.

Well, most teams need health and improving recruits. But okay.

(01-01-2017 12:35 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 11:41 PM)HoopDreams Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 08:13 PM)ItsDude Wrote:  I hope you are too...and I think we have 6 players and one of them might be a lot better than we know.

They have 4 IMO - Lawsons Markel Martin.

Randall Clergeot and Rivers have all shown flashes. I still think Kessee can be useful.

IF (enormous if) Karim gets cleared this week, they could reasonably have a somewhat functional 9 man rotation starting the new year.

Chad works his way back by mid-February and by March it's 10.

Still a lot of hurdles to get there, a lot of development needed

So we're not voluntarily undermanned then?

No just volunteered but actually "chose" to be undermanned.......HD has the savvy insight, don't question it.