Umm, no to the MAC. Obviously their TV deal is going to go down next time too so that would be a silly reason to move.

Why do we have so many AAC fans on here telling us how they are winners? Hell if you look at their records...especially say a ECU. They only won once UofL, TCU and Cinny, left the conference. Hell you would think ECU was a top program from reading their fans opinions. I didn't know any different till I just went and checked....

finished in the top 25 once in 25 years. .500 or below 8 out the last 15 seasons.

Even a good program like Houston....couldn't win till the better schools left the conference they were in and honestly the same goes for most AAC school programs.

Then we have Rice fans wanting to leave CUSA...which I understand, we all want to leave the conference we are in. But the question is why would the MWC want Rice? Houston market? Hell any local HS program owns more of that market than Rice. UTEP needs to find a new home...it's a win for CUSA and them once they do.

(05-30-2016 01:36 PM)keebler645 Wrote:  Umm, no to the MAC. Obviously their TV deal is going to go down next time too so that would be a silly reason to move.

THIS!!! Plus limited or NO payouts in the initial years and entrance fee...

(05-30-2016 01:48 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  Why do we have so many AAC fans on here telling us how they are winners? Hell if you look at their records...especially say a ECU. They only won once UofL, TCU and Cinny, left the conference. Hell you would think ECU was a top program from reading their fans opinions. I didn't know any different till I just went and checked....

finished in the top 25 once in 25 years. .500 or below 8 out the last 15 seasons.

Even a good program like Houston....couldn't win till the better schools left the conference they were in and honestly the same goes for most AAC school programs.

Then we have Rice fans wanting to leave CUSA...which I understand, we all want to leave the conference we are in. But the question is why would the MWC want Rice? Houston market? Hell any local HS program owns more of that market than Rice. UTEP needs to find a new home...it's a win for CUSA and them once they do.

And you would love to be one of us.

(05-30-2016 12:29 PM)PaulDel2 Wrote:  What the CUSA TV deal shows is that the day of "markets alone" is dead. The AAC was built that way and CUSA tried to follow the same model.. By the way, markets doesn't mean "ratings, fan support or attendance." It means Cable boxes in the teams area because each cable box pays the fee regardless of whether the people turn it on.

As of the end of the 1st quarter of 2016, ESPN is losing approximately 10,500 subscribers per day according to Neilsen. They are over 10 million subscribers below where they were at their peak just a few years ago. That's why they havent' reached agreement with the B1G. And while Fox would love the B1G, you haven't seen them rushing to throw money at them. They will wait until ESPN either walks or makes their final offer and then Fox will submit a low ball offer when they don't have to negotiate against themselves. All of the P5, as well as the G5, are in for a rude awakening when their current deals expire.

Just like the housing market, I think the bubble has burst.

? What are you talking about? Fox already spent about 250 million for the first half of the Big10 rights package. The second half is now out for bid and the press reports are that its unlikely ESPN will win this half either. Its expected to see for somewhere around the same price. The Big10 is probably walking away with a around 500 million a year for its new rights package PLUS 8-10 million a year per school from its BTN. So, the idea that there is no cash to spend is wrong.

Are these networks willing to spend that available cash on G5 product? Well, based on the value of the contracts, they never have been willing to place nearly as much money on G5 doorsteps as they place on the front porch of the P5 mansions. That said, there is a lot of evidence that the CUSA contract is much more about revaluing a conference payout to match its new composition than the health of the cable industry. In other words, in 2013 and again in 2014, the CUSA contract was adjusted downward by its network partners. During that same period, the MAC was being awarded a contract that increased their value 10 fold. Same time period---same industry pressure---two completely different results.

My guess is that CUSA, assuming its schools continue to invest money into their athletic programs and continue to build their attendance---will see subsequent contract increases as their programs become more well known and enjoy more success. Its a long road, but if TCU can do it, so can most schools located in decent recruiting areas (which most CUSA schools are).

(05-30-2016 01:48 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  Why do we have so many AAC fans on here telling us how they are winners? Hell if you look at their records...especially say a ECU. They only won once UofL, TCU and Cinny, left the conference. Hell you would think ECU was a top program from reading their fans opinions. I didn't know any different till I just went and checked....

finished in the top 25 once in 25 years. .500 or below 8 out the last 15 seasons.

Even a good program like Houston....couldn't win till the better schools left the conference they were in and honestly the same goes for most AAC school programs.

Then we have Rice fans wanting to leave CUSA...which I understand, we all want to leave the conference we are in. But the question is why would the MWC want Rice? Houston market? Hell any local HS program owns more of that market than Rice. UTEP needs to find a new home...it's a win for CUSA and them once they do.

No one talking about ECU just you. Obviously lots of different ways to talk about the value of a program. Someone finds value 8n the Pirates or we would be in a conference with WKU.

(05-30-2016 01:19 PM)LR Eagle Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 10:06 AM)isidnirb Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 09:55 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Unless AAC has interest in Marshall, It may be time to go talk with MAC. 800k >than 250k.

True, teams like USM and Marshall deserve better. Both have sweat equity, history, success that has better value. Being stuck in a league with so many upstarts is only holding them back. MTS, USM and Marshall should all approach the MAC about membership. All the other upstarts should be in the Sunbelt. Earning it there without effecting more traditional programs with growth pains.

The MAC is solid and worth the effort.

As crappy as our current conference situation is, the MAC doesn't make any sense for us. Any gain in payout is significantly reduced by playing Tuesday night games 800 miles away. The travel expenses would be terrible and at least in C-USA we have La Tech and UAB that are easy road trips for both sides. Besides, I doubt there's any real interest among USM fans to play Ball State of EMU and I'm sure they feel the same way.

USM and Marshall probably saved CUSA from an even worse payout. Without these two programs CUSA will struggle. Wonder if MAC would make a move foe the Eagles and Herd.

(05-30-2016 01:07 PM)baruna falls Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 12:57 PM)BKTopper Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 12:29 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  The only other programs in conference I'm not embarrassed to claim are Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, and maybe Old Dominion. The others I have no interest what so ever seeing and I don't expect anyone else does either. Marshall should tell CUSA to keep its $250k and bounce. Lose more money playing a CUSA east schedule anyways.

You must be super embarrassed that one of those embarrassing teams embarrassed you during your almost undefeated season then

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Marshall is vital to CUSA. Take them away and the conference value struggles. The Herd are the most recognized brand in CUSA and bring much needed national attention with them.

WKU is fortunate to be playing in a league with Marshall.

Yeah, having them in the conference really boosted are TV deal didn't? Wait! Nevermind...

(05-30-2016 01:48 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  Why do we have so many AAC fans on here telling us how they are winners? Hell if you look at their records...especially say a ECU. They only won once UofL, TCU and Cinny, left the conference. Hell you would think ECU was a top program from reading their fans opinions. I didn't know any different till I just went and checked....

finished in the top 25 once in 25 years. .500 or below 8 out the last 15 seasons.

Even a good program like Houston....couldn't win till the better schools left the conference they were in and honestly the same goes for most AAC school programs.

Then we have Rice fans wanting to leave CUSA...which I understand, we all want to leave the conference we are in. But the question is why would the MWC want Rice? Houston market? Hell any local HS program owns more of that market than Rice. UTEP needs to find a new home...it's a win for CUSA and them once they do.

All the G5 TV contracts are going to take a nosedive, ESPN is losing subscribers by the millions. Who thinks ESPN is going to pay more to broadcast ECU, Tulsa or Tulane football?

As far as competitiveness CUSA just sent 4 team to the Baseball regionals, most among the G5 along with having the most NFL draft picks this year.

(05-30-2016 12:29 PM)PaulDel2 Wrote:  What the CUSA TV deal shows is that the day of "markets alone" is dead. The AAC was built that way and CUSA tried to follow the same model.. By the way, markets doesn't mean "ratings, fan support or attendance." It means Cable boxes in the teams area because each cable box pays the fee regardless of whether the people turn it on.

As of the end of the 1st quarter of 2016, ESPN is losing approximately 10,500 subscribers per day according to Neilsen. They are over 10 million subscribers below where they were at their peak just a few years ago. That's why they havent' reached agreement with the B1G. And while Fox would love the B1G, you haven't seen them rushing to throw money at them. They will wait until ESPN either walks or makes their final offer and then Fox will submit a low ball offer when they don't have to negotiate against themselves. All of the P5, as well as the G5, are in for a rude awakening when their current deals expire.

Just like the housing market, I think the bubble has burst.

Excellent post.

(05-30-2016 02:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 12:29 PM)PaulDel2 Wrote:  What the CUSA TV deal shows is that the day of "markets alone" is dead. The AAC was built that way and CUSA tried to follow the same model.. By the way, markets doesn't mean "ratings, fan support or attendance." It means Cable boxes in the teams area because each cable box pays the fee regardless of whether the people turn it on.

As of the end of the 1st quarter of 2016, ESPN is losing approximately 10,500 subscribers per day according to Neilsen. They are over 10 million subscribers below where they were at their peak just a few years ago. That's why they havent' reached agreement with the B1G. And while Fox would love the B1G, you haven't seen them rushing to throw money at them. They will wait until ESPN either walks or makes their final offer and then Fox will submit a low ball offer when they don't have to negotiate against themselves. All of the P5, as well as the G5, are in for a rude awakening when their current deals expire.

Just like the housing market, I think the bubble has burst.

? What are you talking about? Fox already spent about 250 million for the first half of the Big10 rights package. The second half is now out for bid and the press reports are that its unlikely ESPN will win this half either. Its expected to see for somewhere around the same price. The Big10 is probably walking away with a around 500 million a year for its new rights package PLUS 8-10 million a year per school from its BTN. So, the idea that there is no cash to spend is wrong.

Are these networks willing to spend that available cash on G5 product? Well, based on the value of the contracts, they never have been willing to place nearly as much money on G5 doorsteps as they place on the front porch of the P5 mansions. That said, there is a lot of evidence that the CUSA contract is much more about revaluing a conference payout to match its new composition than the health of the cable industry. In other words, in 2013 and again in 2014, the CUSA contract was adjusted downward by its network partners. During that same period, the MAC was being awarded a contract that increased their value 10 fold. Same time period---same industry pressure---two completely different results.

My guess is that CUSA, assuming its schools continue to invest money into their athletic programs and continue to build their attendance---will see subsequent contract increases as their programs become more well known and enjoy more success. Its a long road, but if TCU can do it, so can most schools located in decent recruiting areas (which most CUSA schools are).

Seems like a reasonable assessment. CUSA is, for all practical purposes, a brand new league with some older, established programs and lots of new, unproven schools (some with lots of upside), but until the schools start winning big on a regular basis, the market has said what we are worth. I think a series of short term tv contracts gives us the best chance to incrementally add TV revenue, assuming results on the field and court warrant it.
Investment in infrastructure+winning+time= increased revenue.

(05-30-2016 01:02 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 12:57 PM)BKTopper Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 12:29 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  The only other programs in conference I'm not embarrassed to claim are Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, and maybe Old Dominion. The others I have no interest what so ever seeing and I don't expect anyone else does either. Marshall should tell CUSA to keep its $250k and bounce. Lose more money playing a CUSA east schedule anyways.

You must be super embarrassed that one of those embarrassing teams embarrassed you during your almost undefeated season then

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and another beat you in the Conference championship game in 2013.

And another is 2-1 against Marshall since we joined the conference. Now you get to take on Tony Franklin this year. Good luck. Learn to kick FG's. :-)

Don't know why there are two ECU fans and a UCF fan advocating for Marshall to reach out to the MAC, but the odds of that happening, even in this age, are roughly zero

An all Satirday schedule with divisional opponents in Virgina Beach, Charlotte, Nashville, West Palm Beach, and South Beach beats the heck out of an all Tues./Wed. November schedule with divisional games in Ohio, Ohio, Ohio, Ohio, Ohio, and Buffalo.

(05-30-2016 01:36 PM)keebler645 Wrote:  Umm, no to the MAC. Obviously their TV deal is going to go down next time too so that would be a silly reason to move.

Hell of a post. ESPN is bleeding money. The MAC is the next in line to be bent over. People aren't aren't watching TV that much anymore. The bubble has burst. Is a Tuesday night game between EMU and Buffalo gonna pull in the ratings they need now to keep that contract? Nope. AAC is the newest deal so they will be the last to feel the budget ax so that's good for them but 2 years from now, TV markets will be smaller and don't be surprised if the networks rework deals and pay the penalties to save money. It's gonna happen. Welcome to reality.

(05-30-2016 01:07 PM)baruna falls Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 12:57 PM)BKTopper Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 12:29 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  The only other programs in conference I'm not embarrassed to claim are Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, and maybe Old Dominion. The others I have no interest what so ever seeing and I don't expect anyone else does either. Marshall should tell CUSA to keep its $250k and bounce. Lose more money playing a CUSA east schedule anyways.

You must be super embarrassed that one of those embarrassing teams embarrassed you during your almost undefeated season then

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

Marshall is vital to CUSA. Take them away and the conference value struggles. The Herd are the most recognized brand in CUSA and bring much needed national attention with them.

WKU is fortunate to be playing in a league with Marshall.

Oh absolutely. Marshall is a great school with a great reputation and name recognition. You won't ever hear me argue that. Even academically they blow wku out of the water.

But Polk High is our Green Wave 16, he's a wvu fan first and doesn't speak for c-usa

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(05-30-2016 02:32 PM)MT FAN Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 01:07 PM)baruna falls Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 12:57 PM)BKTopper Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 12:29 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  The only other programs in conference I'm not embarrassed to claim are Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, and maybe Old Dominion. The others I have no interest what so ever seeing and I don't expect anyone else does either. Marshall should tell CUSA to keep its $250k and bounce. Lose more money playing a CUSA east schedule anyways.

You must be super embarrassed that one of those embarrassing teams embarrassed you during your almost undefeated season then

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

Marshall is vital to CUSA. Take them away and the conference value struggles. The Herd are the most recognized brand in CUSA and bring much needed national attention with them.

WKU is fortunate to be playing in a league with Marshall.

Yeah, having them in the conference really boosted are TV deal didn't? Wait! Nevermind...

YASS

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(05-30-2016 02:39 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 01:48 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  Why do we have so many AAC fans on here telling us how they are winners? Hell if you look at their records...especially say a ECU. They only won once UofL, TCU and Cinny, left the conference. Hell you would think ECU was a top program from reading their fans opinions. I didn't know any different till I just went and checked....

finished in the top 25 once in 25 years. .500 or below 8 out the last 15 seasons.

Even a good program like Houston....couldn't win till the better schools left the conference they were in and honestly the same goes for most AAC school programs.

Then we have Rice fans wanting to leave CUSA...which I understand, we all want to leave the conference we are in. But the question is why would the MWC want Rice? Houston market? Hell any local HS program owns more of that market than Rice. UTEP needs to find a new home...it's a win for CUSA and them once they do.

All the G5 TV contracts are going to take a nosedive, ESPN is losing subscribers by the millions. Who thinks ESPN is going to pay more to broadcast ECU, Tulsa or Tulane football?

As far as competitiveness CUSA just sent 4 team to the Baseball regionals, most among the G5 along with having the most NFL draft picks this year.

Now, you just HAVE to know the aacers are gonna bring up the draft tie...

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Some people do not know how to put a value on something and what I'm posting below is just one part...of many thing that makes up the value of playing in one conference over another. Cost will be a big factor. Bt on this one I'm just looking at something we can compare HEAD TO HEAD since Marshall moved from the MAC.

This compare Marshall's Rights and License fees (revenue) to that of the top program in the MAC, Northern Ill.

You will see in 2005 Marshall was only getting $459,306 more. Today Marshall is bring in $1,868,810
more but that was number the old TV deal. Take out a million of that and Marshall is still bringing in $868.810 dollars more than N. Ill. But I believe the number will be closer to $650,000 than a million on the difference between the old and new TV contract.

(05-30-2016 01:36 PM)keebler645 Wrote:  Umm, no to the MAC. Obviously their TV deal is going to go down next time too so that would be a silly reason to move.

Yeah, 13 years from now when MAC deal is up the current market will have not changed again?

Im sure the MAC will worry about that 2028.

.

(05-30-2016 11:33 AM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(05-30-2016 09:41 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So discouraging to be stuck in this conference. Even more discouraging when leadership at your school tries to spin things and tell fans how excited we should be.

Fairly visible on the efforts UTEP, Rice, Southern Mississippi and Old Dominion are making to move to the MWC or AAC. And I have to think USM has the leg up on the next AAC opening, unless Tillman Fertitta buys UH into the AAC. Marshall has been quiet.

This is the part that is frustrating to me. I think we have just as much to offer as anyone else who is making the effort. I like to think Marshall has approached the AAC about membership, but we don't know.

If we did and the AAC told us to get lost, then just say so. Honestly, as a fan, I just want to know we are at least TRYING.