 Opening Lines + Predictions
The season is still a long ways off and I'm surprised there are lines this early. Here are my thoughts. One quick note: there's a lot of new QB's in the league and the ones coming back are pretty good (APP, Idaho, TXST, GS, Troy). I'm not sure about ULM's and NMSU's QB and maybe there's another one I left out, but it will be interesting to see how GSU, ArkSt, USA, and ULL handle having a new QB at the helm.
Ball State -5½
Georgia State
A revenge match for Ball State. I don't think they believed they could lose to GSU, especially at home. Now they travel to Atlanta to make things right. GSU will cover and probably win this matchup unless they have serious QB issues in Game 1. That is certainly possible, but I think GSU gets the win in a nail biter even without great QB play in game one.
Appalachian State
Tennessee -19½
Appalachian State is a legitimate Top 10 G5 team and could sneak up on the Vols. But this is not the Vols of years past. Phil Steele has their offensive and defensive lines both rated in the nation's Top 10. They bring back 17 starters including their QB. This will definitely be a game I watch and I think Tennessee will approach the 19 point spread and maybe blow the top off APP in the second half. A high scoring blowout is not out of the question, but there's a chance APP's defense and TENN's offseason rust will keep this game from getting out of hand. TENN's high returning starter count, and their momentum on their way up the college football latter means they're less likely to sleep on APP.
New Mexico State
UTEP -3½
NMSU showed slight improvement last season but still has a long, long ways to go. UTEP is not a great team, but finished 5-7 last season. The amount to which NMSU was dr jekyll and mr hyde was unreal, so it's difficult to get a read on the aggies other than looking at them from a recent historical perspective. If NMSU wins, it will be on the shoulders of Larry Rose III, but I think UTEP beats NMSU at home in El Paso and beats the spread, if only by 3 or 4.
South Alabama
Mississippi State -34
South Alabama has struggled to find any kind of roster consistency over the past few years. High turnover has plagued the jaguars and this season may be no different, especially with the team's best O-Lineman and Pass Rusher leaving the team during the offseason. The Bulldogs don't take cupcakes lightly and will likely show it on the field. Their D-Line could cause serious problems for USA's new QB. Expect MSU to meet and slightly exceed the 34 point spread.
Toledo
Arkansas State -3
At first glance, based on overall performance throughout the year, you'd have to give the nod to The Rockets to win and cover by as much as 14. But not so fast my friend. Toledo ranks nearly dead last in returning starters, and the rocket defense looks to have been gutted with only three starters returning. Arkansas State brings back more than enough to find some consistency while the rockets look to create a new identity with a new QB. If the Arkansas State defensive line is as good as advertised, it will be a long night for Toledo in Jonesboro. Red Wolves cover by at least 7.
Boise State -19½
Louisiana-Lafayette
Nothing alarms me about this spread, but if its wrong, it will likely be in Boise's favor. Hailed as one of the Top 2 or 3 G5 teams this year and a national title contender by some, this is not a matchup Hudspeth's Louisiana wants right now. The Ragin' Cajuns do avoid the smurf turf by getting them in Lafayette, but the program is not a position to gain a true home field advantage. Like many SBC teams this year, Louisiana-Lafayette will be vetting a set of QBs to find their number one for the season opener. Coming off a 4-8 season, this doesn't appear the best time to upset the Broncos. Boise will meet and likely exceed the spread. I'm not sure a major blowout at home is in the cards, but like APP-TENN, the possibility lingers.
Texas State
Ohio -19
Texas State has a new coaching staff and ranks very low on returning starters. A boone for them, however, is their starting QB Tyler Jones is back to smooth the transition. They travel to Ohio (8-5 in 2015) to face a program that came down to the wire with APP in bowl season. The spread looks high right for this matchup. I don't expect Texas State to shore up the defense completely in Game One, but I do expect you'll see a lot more effort. The Bobcats new offensive system will be new to Ohio coaches and I feel Texas State can gain an "advantage of the unknown". I don't think this is going to be a blowout and Texas State will likely the spread on this one.
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