Tribe is wounded. Lost 2 in a row and whatever bubble hopes they had are now dashed. That makes the Tribe dangerous to me. Thursday night is a must win for them if they want to stay alive in the conference race. Going to be a major battle in Williamsburg.

William & Mary Tribe

Record (vs. D-I): 15-8
CAA: 9-5 (t-3rd)
RPI: 59
SOS: 85
Best Wins: vs. JMU (# 82), Sweep over Charleston (# 94), @ NC State (# 109)
Bad Loss: @ Howard (# 330)

Once again, not much needs to said that hasn't been talked about ad nauseum regarding the Tribe or already mentioned by our resident Tribe expert/mole, CG. However, I will anyways, because its what I do.

Suffice it to say this will be a very difficult road game. When we defeated W&M 97-94 in OT, it was one of the CAA's best games of the season, but keep in mind the Tribe were missing Junior shooting guard Daniel Dixon, who could have made a huge impact in the contest. W&M has also lost their last 2 straight, and its a rarity for a Tony Shaver-led squad to lose 3 in a row in recent years.

Nevertheless, the Seahawks are playing even better than they were back on January 16th, and have a very good chance of knocking off W&M in the rematch. The Tribe's biggest weaknesses lately have been on defense and in the post. Last week, Hofstra shot 55.6 % and Towson 54.0 % against William & Mary, with the Pride finishing off a season sweep and Towson winning by double digits. In the post, Rokas Gustys of Hofstra blocked 3 shots by the Tribe and the Pride scored 50 of their 86 points in the paint. Meanwhile, Towson had 7 team blocks and outrebounded W&M 34-29. Not good.

Thus, it'll be up to the Seahawks' post quartet of Gettys, Chuck, Bryan and Cacok to dominate in the interior and not let the Tribe get too many of the backdoor cuts they like to score off of. They'll need to impose their will early and often in this game and do far better against Senior Center Sean Sheldon than they did last game, when he put up 20 points on 9-11 shooting. If he dominates again, that will open up W&M's deadly outside game, and that cannot be allowed to happen.

The Tribe will score no matter what, with Omar Prewitt likely ending up doing the most damage, but a game of "trading buckets", like the first meeting in Trask, won't likely work on the road. The Tribe don't turn the ball over often thanks to the steady hands of guards David Cohn, Terry Tarpey and Greg Malinowski so tough halfcourt defense is an absolute necessity in order to come away with a win. This promises to be an exciting matchup with the high potential to be frustrating for both sides.

Bill and the virgin start as 2.5 point favorites.

So,

minus their ultimate pressure player in Thornton, does the Tribe step up to the challenge, or do they cave to the pressure?

UNCW with the upset as they try to run with us, and fail.

Beach Bums 84-Olde Towne 76

Spread dropped to 1.5

(02-17-2016 05:20 PM)Proff Wrote:  Bill and the virgin start as 2.5 point favorites.

That's merely a betting line.

(02-17-2016 05:47 PM)82hawk Wrote:  So,

minus their ultimate pressure player in Thornton, does the Tribe step up to the challenge, or do they cave to the pressure?

UNCW with the upset as they try to run with us, and fail.

Beach Bums 84-Olde Towne 76

Thornton graduated last year. Is that what you meant by minus?

As we saw in the first edition of this game that has all the makings of turning into an annual big time battle, WM doesn't cave. They like to run the floor and IMO are the only CAA team capable of doing so with us for 40 minutes. I've said it before but you have to shutdown Omar Prewitt early and don't let him get going. He's the one that makes their offense tick. Don't let Burchfield have ANY open looks from deep. Frustrate the bigs and we'll be okay. They're a scrappy bunch and Cohn leads the way there. Probably the quickest PG in the CAA. Him and Talley will be fun to watch. Talley is a much better defender though.

Seahawks by 2.

Thornton was their go to guy, and he seemed to ALWAYS come through at the end of the game when they needed a basket. They don't have "that guy", who you can hand the ball to and say "go get it" this year.

Last year, even with Thornton, they let it slip though their fingers. The pressure is on to capitalize and get to the big dance. Tournament seeding is vital, and beating UNCW is a psychological win if they can get it. In other words, the pressure is on.

(02-17-2016 07:52 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Thornton was their go to guy, and he seemed to ALWAYS come through at the end of the game when they needed a basket. They don't have "that guy", who you can hand the ball to and say "go get it" this year.

Last year, even with Thornton, they let it slip though their fingers. The pressure is on to capitalize and get to the big dance. Tournament seeding is vital, and beating UNCW is a psychological win if they can get it. In other words, the pressure is on.

Okay. I see what you're saying here, but I will tell you that they have so many capable scorers that I don't think they necessarily need that go to guy like Thornton was for them the last few years.

(02-17-2016 08:32 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  

(02-17-2016 07:52 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Thornton was their go to guy, and he seemed to ALWAYS come through at the end of the game when they needed a basket. They don't have "that guy", who you can hand the ball to and say "go get it" this year.

Last year, even with Thornton, they let it slip though their fingers. The pressure is on to capitalize and get to the big dance. Tournament seeding is vital, and beating UNCW is a psychological win if they can get it. In other words, the pressure is on.

Okay. I see what you're saying here, but I will tell you that they have so many capable scorers that I don't think they necessarily need that go to guy like Thornton was for them the last few years.

Much like us. I'd be comfortable with Ingram, Bryce or Flemmings with the ball in their hands late in games. Maybe even Talley. W&M has Prewitt, Dixon, and Tarpey who they can turn to.

Oh, and we need to fix the title. Wil I Am has two "L's" in the academic world. I'm sure the nerds would be displeased...

(02-18-2016 05:55 AM)82hawk Wrote:  Oh, and we need to fix the title. Wil I Am has two "L's" in the academic world. I'm sure the nerds would be displeased...

Fixed. Tribal is proud of you, I'm sure.

Ok. Game analysis.

Last time out, UNCW was not playing UNCW ball, but managed to win with Ingram losing his mind on 8-13 shooting from 3 with 30 points. Bryce had 20 and Flemmings 19. We cannot count on Ingram or any other single player to win this on offense.

Daniel Dixon will be on the court. As a 6'6" guard, he will have the size to defend our shorter guards.

The Tribe had 46 points in the paint to our 38, and scored 28 points off turnovers to our 6 points off TO's. They also had 16 fast break points to our ZERO.

We have to even out this number, or we could be in for a rude awakening and a sound beating.

William and Mary is very good at beating and attacking the press.

This game worries me more than any game this season.

Spread has moved again to 2 W&M.

(02-18-2016 07:22 AM)82hawk Wrote:  Ok. Game analysis.

Last time out, UNCW was not playing UNCW ball, but managed to win with Ingram losing his mind on 8-13 shooting from 3 with 30 points. Bryce had 20 and Flemmings 19. We cannot count on Ingram or any other single player to win this on offense.

Daniel Dixon will be on the court. As a 6'6" guard, he will have the size to defend our shorter guards.

The Tribe had 46 points in the paint to our 38, and scored 28 points off turnovers to our 6 points off TO's. They also had 16 fast break points to our ZERO.

We have to even out this number, or we could be in for a rude awakening and a sound beating.

William and Mary is very good at beating and attacking the press.

This game worries me more than any game this season.

I imagine we'll be far better equipped to defend Sean Sheldon this time around with the way our bigs are playing. I sincerely doubt we let him go 9-11 from the field like the game in Trask.

However, if we're forced to send too much attention his way, that's when Dixon and other guys beat us from the perimeter, OR they'll beat us on backdoor cuts.

Gonna be an extremely tough game. I'm not buying that the Tribe are weaker than they were earlier in the season just because of their recent losses. They're going to be stronger than ever tonight in my mind.

TV game or just streaming?

Spread is now 3.

Streaming

William & Mary vs. UNC Wilmington - 2/18/16 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

As I'm going to tonight's game (I support W&M as a home-away-from-home team), just wanted to drop a quick congrats on your season. Nice to see UNCW back where you belong as one of the top programs in the CAA.