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Had some downtime at lunch and threw this together. This doesn't take into account any impossible scenarios (i.e., two 5-6 teams that have to play each other), also there are teams in the Big 12 and Sun Belt that are either 4-6 or 5-5 that can still become eligible but need 2 wins.

These aren't in actual standings order, just sorted by whether a team is eligible or not.



Alright, here's the games left for who we need 8 of them to lose to guarantee a bowl:

2 Games Remaining
Texas (4-6) - v. Texas Tech (6-5), @ Baylor (10-1)
Kansas State (4-6) - @ Kansas (0-11), v. WVU (6-4)
Georgia State (4-6) - v. Troy (3-7), @ Georgia Southern (7-3)
LA Lafayette (4-6) - @ App State (8-2), v. Troy (3-7)
South Alabama (5-5) - @ GA Southern (7-3), v. App State (8-2)

5-6 Teams
East Carolina v. Cincinnati (6-5)
Tulsa @ Tulane (3-8)
Nebraska v. Iowa (11-0)
Illinois v. Northwestern (9-2)
Minnesota v. Wisconsin (8-3)
Indiana @ Purdue (2-9)
Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic (2-9)
Buffalo v. UMASS (2-9)
San Jose State v. Boise State (7-4)
Washington v. Washington State (8-3)
Kentucky v. Louisville (6-5)
Missouri @ Arkansas (6-5)

From this, i feel like Nebraska, SJ State, Georgia State, Texas, Kansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette are likely to end up on the outside for sure, which would put it at 82 eligible teams for 80 slots, and some of those teams playing 6-5 teams are likely to lose. Gonna be an interesting 2 weeks.

Nice job and well done! Appreciate the time and effort.

We'll make a bowl. Hopefully we get matched up with someone we'll beat!

Of note, the first team that matters to play this week is Texas v. Texas Tech on thursday. Texas is 4-6 and play Baylor next week.

Added all of this to the OP

If we need 8 to lose...

Out of just the 5-6 teams with just 1 game left, we'd need 8 of 12 to lose.

Of those 12 games, 5 are clear underdogs. 3 are slight underdogs (5-6 vs 6-5). That would take care of it by itself -- but that's not going to clearly happen.

For cautious sake, let's say the clear underdogs lose, but ALL of the slight underdogs WIN and don't lose! So they come out on top only losing *5* (going 7-5 in those 12 games). That's a realistic, safe projection.

So of the teams who have 2 more games left, 4 teams can't lose a game, 1 team can be 1-1. 3 of those 4 who can't lose a game must end up going at least 1-1. OR 2 of those 4 have to lose a game and South Alabama (5-5) has to lose to both GA-Southern & App-State -- which will most likely happen.

Overall, I give us a 85% chance of going to a bowl.

(11-23-2015 04:06 PM)SilentStryk09 Wrote:  Had some downtime at lunch and threw this together. This doesn't take into account any impossible scenarios (i.e., two 5-6 teams that have to play each other), also there are teams in the Big 12 and Sun Belt that are either 4-6 or 5-5 that can still become eligible but need 2 wins.

These aren't in actual standings order, just sorted by whether a team is eligible or not.



Alright, here's the games left for who we need 8 of them to lose to guarantee a bowl:

2 Games Remaining
Texas (4-6) - v. Texas Tech (6-5), @ Baylor (10-1)
Kansas State (4-6) - @ Kansas (0-11), v. WVU (6-4)
Georgia State (4-6) - v. Troy (3-7), @ Georgia Southern (7-3)
LA Lafayette (4-6) - @ App State (8-2), v. Troy (3-7)
South Alabama (5-5) - @ GA Southern (7-3), v. App State (8-2)

5-6 Teams
East Carolina v. Cincinnati (6-5)
Tulsa @ Tulane (3-8)
Nebraska v. Iowa (11-0)
Illinois v. Northwestern (9-2)
Minnesota v. Wisconsin (8-3)
Indiana @ Purdue (2-9)
Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic (2-9)
Buffalo v. UMASS (2-9)
San Jose State v. Boise State (7-4)
Washington v. Washington State (8-3)
Kentucky v. Louisville (6-5)
Missouri @ Arkansas (6-5)

From this, i feel like Nebraska, SJ State, Georgia State, Texas, Kansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette are likely to end up on the outside for sure, which would put it at 82 eligible teams for 80 slots, and some of those teams playing 6-5 teams are likely to lose. Gonna be an interesting 2 weeks.

IL and Minnie sota have very tough games to qualify.

IF they lose that brings your list down to 80.

Actually now that i look at it, it's very likely all 5 of the 4-6/5-5 teams don't get to 6, which if the 3 B1G teams on shaky ground all lose, we're set. However we wouldn't know that until next weekend at best because of S. Alabama being 5-5 and Kansas State playing Kansas.

As I pointed out in the general MAC thread that referred to this...

Even putting Illinois & Minnesota at 50/50 games, among others, you basically have:

3 - Sure Wins (Tulsa, Indiana, Buffalo)
6 - Sure Losses (Texas, GA-State, LA-Laf, S-Alabama, Nebraska, San Jose St)
8 - Generally 50/50 that they'll win out

For us NOT to go, we'd need only 7 or less to lose. Which means out of the 8 50/50, they'd almost have to run the table for us not to get in, and even then we'd have to be the LAST 6-6 team they'd choose.

We're going. I bet my virginity on that one!

Missouri and Nebraska off the board.

Washington made it (6-6), GA-State made a step toward it (5-6) but have to win @GA-Southern to make it, and Tulsa (5-6) has to play @Tulane to see what happens there at 8PM.

No time like the present for the MAC to go 7-0 in bowls.

San Jose State about to lose big to Boise -- San Jose Sate's out... but they were one of my Givens to Lose.

NIU
WMU
Toledo
CMU

Bowling Green
Ohio
Akron
BUFFALO? Losing to UMass. Would be nice to see 8 in there and go 8-0. I think that'd break a college football record if we went 8-0.

No need to worry now...were safe. We took care of business like a real team should.

*Buffalo FG -- cut it to 28-20, 5:50 left in 3rd Q.

Yeah, we'd still make it if we were 6-6. I want to see 8 MAC teams in. :)

Buffalo's out, so season finished with 7 MAC teams eligible. None 6-6.

All of the teams below are capable of winning their bowl games. The top five teams are very talented

Could be a very interesting bowl season for the MAC.

NIU
WMU
Toledo
CMU
Bowling Green

Ohio
Akron

Akron might end up getting a neat bowl. The other six should lock down the tie ins.