It's all going to take care of itself. If, for example, Houston goes 13-0 it will for certain finish in the top ten and if enough goes right, a whole lot mind you, may even sneak into the playoffs.

(11-11-2015 09:12 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  It's all going to take care of itself. If, for example, Houston goes 13-0 it will for certain finish in the top ten and if enough goes right, a whole lot mind you, may even sneak into the playoffs.

The videos you have below your messages are disturbing.

I am as much a homer as anyone but we aren't getting into the playoffs this year.

This new "system" penalizes non P5 more than the BCS did. We were #11 in the BCS at this time in 2011 with our best win over our home opener against UCLA (which finished about where Louisville will with W/L).

Our SOS could be better but its light years ahead of the Georgia States and UAB's of 2011.

With this new system you have to have a solid SOS and be on the radar to start the season not halfway through it. Now if we win out or finish with one close loss to a good team we will be on the radar coming into 2016. Maybe even at the bottom of the polls.

Having started on the radar and "if" we ran the slate next year I could see it being "possible" though unlikely.

For a concrete example of this look at Memphis (had they remained undefeated) they came in at the bottom of the polls had a good SOS and if they had won out and the chips fallen right they could maybe have gotten in.

This system as it was with the BCS is a 2-3 year cycle. You cant be good just one year (I don't agree either) it sucks but that is the way its setup.

(11-11-2015 09:35 AM)PirateJim Wrote:  

(11-11-2015 09:12 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  It's all going to take care of itself. If, for example, Houston goes 13-0 it will for certain finish in the top ten and if enough goes right, a whole lot mind you, may even sneak into the playoffs.

The videos you have below your messages are disturbing.

Yeah, I meant to deactivate them. They've circulated for a few days now.

(11-11-2015 09:40 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  I am as much a homer as anyone but we aren't getting into the playoffs this year.

This new "system" penalizes non P5 more than the BCS did. We were #11 in the BCS at this time in 2011 with our best win over our home opener against UCLA (which finished about where Louisville will with W/L).

Our SOS could be better but its light years ahead of the Georgia States and UAB's of 2011.

Interesting idea. FWIW, the numbers seem to bear you out. In Colley's BCS simulation, Houston is ranked #16 right now, much better than the #24 CFP ranking.

But balanced against that is the fact that in the BCS, there were only two "playoff" spots up for grabs, now there are four, so more chances.
Back in 2011, even at #11 this point in the season, there was zero chance that Houston could ever make it into the BCS title game.

(11-11-2015 10:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-11-2015 09:40 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  I am as much a homer as anyone but we aren't getting into the playoffs this year.

This new "system" penalizes non P5 more than the BCS did. We were #11 in the BCS at this time in 2011 with our best win over our home opener against UCLA (which finished about where Louisville will with W/L).

Our SOS could be better but its light years ahead of the Georgia States and UAB's of 2011.

Interesting idea. FWIW, the numbers seem to bear you out. In Colley's BCS simulation, Houston is ranked #16 right now, much better than the #24 CFP ranking.

But balanced against that is the fact that in the BCS, there were only two "playoff" spots up for grabs, now there are four, so more chances.
Back in 2011, even at #11 this point in the season, there was zero chance that Houston could ever make it into the BCS title game.

Agreed (on the BCS sim) but we were on the radar thanks to Case. No not coming in ranked in fact we didn't get ranked until after our 6th game (after our 5th this year). We were however still on the minds of voters and watched carefully thanks to Case and our 2009 season.

The new system just give 4/5 P5 teams a chance over the 2 in the past. Yes there are more seats at the table but with the move to only play each other us "serfs" in the "G5" will have a real struggle to boost our SOS enough to make a difference.

Now if we can keep the run we (the AAC) has had this year going and become "legit" programs in the eyes of voters we might be ok, a struggle for that "chance" at the playoff but still a chance. Conferences like the Sun Belt, CUSA, Etc. are relegated to also ran status because they as a conference are struggling at the worst time.

(11-11-2015 09:40 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  I am as much a homer as anyone but we aren't getting into the playoffs this year.

This new "system" penalizes non P5 more than the BCS did. We were #11 in the BCS at this time in 2011 with our best win over our home opener against UCLA (which finished about where Louisville will with W/L).

Our SOS could be better but its light years ahead of the Georgia States and UAB's of 2011.

With this new system you have to have a solid SOS and be on the radar to start the season not halfway through it. Now if we win out or finish with one close loss to a good team we will be on the radar coming into 2016. Maybe even at the bottom of the polls.

Having started on the radar and "if" we ran the slate next year I could see it being "possible" though unlikely.

For a concrete example of this look at Memphis (had they remained undefeated) they came in at the bottom of the polls had a good SOS and if they had won out and the chips fallen right they could maybe have gotten in.

This system as it was with the BCS is a 2-3 year cycle. You cant be good just one year (I don't agree either) it sucks but that is the way its setup.

If you had Baylor and OSU on your schedule to close the year you could make the playoffs. But since you have Navy and Memphis you will not.

If you were to roll Alabama this weekend by 20 you would be in the top 5 in the next ranking. You must beat at team they deem as an upper tier team to make a jump.

(11-11-2015 11:56 AM)macgar32 Wrote:  If you had Baylor and OSU on your schedule to close the year you could make the playoffs. But since you have Navy and Memphis you will not.

If you were to roll Alabama this weekend by 20 you would be in the top 5 in the next ranking. You must beat at team they deem as an upper tier team to make a jump.

Agreed (on the big jump) but see my previous post about SOS. Plus Baylor is the worst example. They literally schedule chumps every year including this one. Plus they wont play us and have not since 1995 the last year of the SWC.

When and if the B12 adopts the P5 OOC mentality Baylor will just go and schedule schools like Wake Forest, Washington State, Indiana, Etc.

They will never (as long as he who shall not be named.... is the head coach) schedule anyone that could challenge them. At least Oklahoma State has played us in the last 20+ years (2006 2008, 2009 most recently).

But I digress..... Like I said we aren't making the playoffs this year even if we are undefeated its a 2-3 year cycle regardless of who we play. As a Memphis fan you should know that.

Now if we go 14-0, 13-1, 12-2 with those loses being close well played games by both teams I could see a run next year.

We would be returning a ton, we would be coming off a ranked season (or one where we were ranked most of the year) and coming into a game versus Oklahoma. Win that game after a year like 2015 and you are ranked if you weren't in week one and the sky is the limit.

An undefeated UH with a win over Oklahoma and hopefully an improved Louisville plus our slate of good teams "could" not will but "could" open the door. My point is just that the new system is harsher on non P5 schools than the old one.

There are more seats at the table but they created more (more 1/1 bowls) "P5" new years day marque games. By giving us a slotted bowl (best of the G5) they have just pushed us over into the corner while the remaining P5 get two more chances (spots 3-4) at the NC.

I'm hoping that USF wins the Conference Championship. I could only imagine the uproar if that happens.

Need respect in preseason polls. Without it, running the table undefeated will never get you there. Now if you start in the top 25........whole new ballgame this time of year undefeated.

If we can get the respect that Boise gets.......we would have a shot. The pollsters never have a problem over ranking Boise. This season was a prime example. However, if Boise ran the table this year, they certainly would have been in the CFP discussion just based off of where they started the year at in the polls.

I think y'all are overreacting about the situation. The reality is that I've never seen this many programs from a lower tier Conference be ranked at one time, especially have so many more than more than one BCS/P5(or whatever) conference. If we're capable of doing this again next year and the year after, this conference will be MUCH more respected. If anyone things we're going from not even getting the NYD bowl to having multiple teams in the top 15, you're crazy. I think we just really need to give it a little time and we'll see the results. No one can realistically expect us to get massive respect in one year.

(11-11-2015 07:32 PM)dezagcoog Wrote:  I think y'all are overreacting about the situation. The reality is that I've never seen this many programs from a lower tier Conference be ranked at one time, especially have so many more than more than one BCS/P5(or whatever) conference. If we're capable of doing this again next year and the year after, this conference will be MUCH more respected. If anyone things we're going from not even getting the NYD bowl to having multiple teams in the top 15, you're crazy. I think we just really need to give it a little time and we'll see the results. No one can realistically expect us to get massive respect in one year.

Conference expansion needs to stall for 5 years.......and if it does.......things will work out well for the AAC

(11-11-2015 07:53 PM)otown Wrote:  Conference expansion needs to stall for 5 years.......and if it does.......things will work out well for the AAC

In what sense? Will we get a $20m + per year TV deal? Nope. Will the P5 cut us in on the playoff money? Nope. Will a major bowl sign a deal with us? Nope.

The AAC has no "big time" future. The only way any of us will ever be in a big-time conference is if we get raided by a P5. So I sure hope there is no such stall.

(11-11-2015 10:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Interesting idea. FWIW, the numbers seem to bear you out. In Colley's BCS simulation, Houston is ranked #16 right now, much better than the #24 CFP ranking.

But balanced against that is the fact that in the BCS, there were only two "playoff" spots up for grabs, now there are four, so more chances.
Back in 2011, even at #11 this point in the season, there was zero chance that Houston could ever make it into the BCS title game.

There was a scenario in which UH could have advanced to the national title game, but it would have required some upsets, like Auburn over Alabama, Va. Tech over Virginia, Oklahoma over Oklahoma State and Notre Dame or Cal over Stanford. They also would have needed Southern Miss to beat Marshall. I doubt 2 loss, non-division winning Arkansas would have been kept over a Houston team destroying opponents and with a win over a ranked team in the CCG.

Under such a scenario, the only other team with fewer than 2 losses at all would have been Boise State. There would be an argument for Arkansas, whose only losses were to 'Bama and LSU but 2 losses looks ugly for a title game participant.