BIG 12 Candidate Analysis
I have been out of the country for several weeks and just got back. If this has been posted, my apologies.
I found this analysis by a West Virginia Football blogger, Jason Dunigan, related to his assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the leading candidates most interesting. It was posted by Barry Tramel of The Oklahoman.
Long article. It will please some and annoy others. Enjoy. ECUHOO
Big 12 Candidate Analysis by Jason Dunigan:
West Virginia fan Jason Dunigan, who lives in Charleston, W.Va., is one of my favorite corresponders. He’s always thinking about college football and coming up with new and interesting ways to view the sport.
Jason emailed me this week about conference realignment and decided to analyze the candidates for Big 12 expansion. I’ll let him take over from here.
“I have been working on a little research project over the last week and thought I would share it with you. Obviously there is a lot of other information and data I could have collected, but I wanted to keep it somewhat simple so as not to get too bogged down with statistics, etc. It has to do with my belief that the B12 needs to expand sooner rather than later.
“The reason for my project is based on my belief that there will be no opportunity for the B12 to acquire programs from other power five conferences due to pretty much everyone's perception of instability within the B12, and I wanted an as unbiased as possible look at which candidates from the group of five conferences were the best options for expansion, available.
“The information below covers some key areas that I believe will/would help decide which schools might one day receive an invitation to join the B12. Some of the areas include TV markets, recruiting base, and success against Power 5 programs.
“One of the biggest determining factors, in my opinion, is fan support, and the best way to gauge that is through fan attendance. In considering attendance, I took the liberty of eliminating any candidate that could not average a minimum of 30,000 fans over a five-year period, and I focused on the last five years for the majority of my information, while using information in some cases from other seasons.
“One last thought before I start dropping numbers; if a program was not included in a category, their statistics did not indicate they were one of the better candidates for that category, or they provided no new benefit to the conference in that category. For example, when considering top 100 TV markets, I did not include Texas markets on behalf of Houston because Texas is already a part of the B12 TV footprint.
RESUME’
“This first section lists the school, then lists the Power 5 schools they have defeated since 2000. In some cases, the school may have multiple wins over the same Power 5 program, but I only listed the school once.
East Carolina: Duke, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, Texas Tech, TCU, Virginia, N.C. State, North Carolina.
BYU: Virginia, Utah, California, Mississippi State, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, TCU, Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, Oregon State, Oklahoma, Washington State, Ole Miss, Texas.
Boise State: Iowa State, TCU, Oregon State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Utah, Georgia, Arizona State, Washington, Arizona.
Central Florida: Alabama, N.C. State, Georgia, Boston College, Penn State, Louisville, Rutgers, Baylor.
Cincinnati: Syracuse, TCU, Louisville, West Virginia, Rutgers, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, N.C. State, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Duke, Purdue.
Memphis: Ole Miss, Louisville.
South Florida: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, Syracuse, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kansas, Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame.
Houston: Louisville, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, UCLA, Penn State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh.
Connecticut: Rutgers, Iowa State, Indiana, Wake Forest, Duke, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia, Baylor, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Maryland.
San Diego State: Utah, Washington State.
Fresno State: California, Colorado, Oregon State, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, UCLA, Washington, Kansas State, Virginia, Rutgers, Illinois.
Army: Baylor, Vanderbilt, Duke, Northwestern, Boston College.
Navy: Vanderbilt, Duke, Rutgers, Stanford, Pitt, Notre Dame, Missouri, Wake Forest, Indiana.
Air Force: Utah, Northwestern, California, Washington, TCU, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech.
TV
“This next section lists the top 100 TV markets housed within the states in which the potential members reside. I only listed new states that are not currently home to B12 teams.
“East Carolina: 24-Charlotte, 27-Raleigh-Durham, 36-Greenville-Spartansburg-Asheville-Anderson, 46 Greensboro-High Point-Winston-Salem, 92-Tri-Cities (Bristol, Va.), 103-Greenville-New Bern-Washington.
“Central Florida/South Florida: 13-Tampa-St. Petersburg, 16-Miami-Fort Lauderdale, 19-Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, 38-West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce, 47-Jacksonville, 60-Mobile-Pensacola, 62-Fort Myers-Naples.
“BYU: 33-Salt Lake City.
“Cincinnati: 17-Cleveland-Akron, 32-Columbus, 34-Cincinnati, 64-Dayton, 73-Toledo.
“Memphis: 29-Nashville, 48-Memphis, 59-Knoxville, 92-Tri-Cities (Bristol, Va.).
“UConn: 30 Hartford-New Haven.
“Fresno State/San Diego State: 2-Los Angeles, 6-San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, 20-Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, 28-San Diego, 55-Fresno-Visalia.
“Boise State: 112-Boise.
“Army, Navy and Air Force are national programs, and thus narrowing their appeal to the state that houses their campuses seemed to simplify their respective overall television appeal.
VIEWERS
“This next section is brief and covers average rank for number of viewers per game in terms of TV ratings from 2013:
“No. 40 Central Florida, 1.6 million viewers average.
“No. 55 Boise State, 1.189 million.
“No. 56 San Diego State, 1.134 million.
“No. 57 BYU, 1.129 million.
“No. 61 UConn, 1.013 million.
“No. 62 Navy, 0.99 million.
“No. 66 Fresno State, 0.849 million.
“No. 68 Air Force, 0.843 million.
“No. 70 South Florida, 0.743 million.
“No. 80 Cincinnati, 0.531 million.
“No. 84 Houston, 0.371 million.”
ATTENDANCE
“This next section details average home attendance for the last five seasons ranked from highest to lowest. The first number is the average for the last five years. It also shows the single season five-year high and low, which are the actual numbers as reported by NCAA.org. I used a cutoff of a minimum of 30,000 per year, except for Memphis because they have been a popular name thrown about since expansion talk resumed. I think the numbers are an indictment of Memphis' candidacy or lack thereof.
“1. BYU: 60, 235 (High: 61,381, Low: 57,141)
“2. East Carolina: 47,092 (High: 50,012, Low: 43,985)
“3. South Florida: 38,985 (High: 44,550, Low: 30,694)
“4. Central Florida: 37,680 (High: 39,614, Low: 34,283)
“5. San Diego State: 34,101 (High: 39,865, Low: 30,879)
“6. Boise State: 33,912 (High: 35,404, Low: 32,504)
“7. Air Force: 33,645 (High: 40,093, Low: 28,161)
“8. UConn: 33,596 (High: 38,248, Low: 27,248)
“9. Navy: 33,537 (High: 35,558, Low: 32,363)
“10. Fresno State: 33,345 (High: 36,917, Low: 29,298)
“11. Army: 33,082 (High: 34,262, Low: 31,667)
“12. Cincinnati: 31,422 (High: 35,067, Low: 28,840)
“13. Memphis: 26,151 (High 33,851, Low: 20,078)
RECRUITING
“This next section deals with recruiting and which schools add the best recruiting bed to the B12. The numbers indicate the total number of 3, 4, and 5 star recruits produced by each state housing a potential B12 member between 2011-2015 recruiting classes.
“1. Florida: 1295
“2. California: 878
“3. Ohio: 462
“4. North Carolina: 284
“5. Tennessee: 184
“6. Maryland: 184
“7. Utah: 98
“8. New York: 78
“9. Colorado: 60
“10. Connecticut: 39
“11. Idaho: 16
RECENT SUCCESS
“The last area has to do with overall on-field results over the last five years, from 2010 through 2014. I have the win/loss records of the candidates listed to provide a glimpse of the trending direction of each program, although trends rise and fall with each new season. It doesn't indicate the overall historic significance of the program, but it covers the what-have-you-done-lately area of the program.
“East Carolina: 6-7, 5-8, 8-5, 10-3, 8-5.
“Central Florida: 11-3, 5-7, 10-4, 12-1, 9-4.
“Brigham Young: 7-6, 10-3, 8-5, 8-5, 8-5.
“Boise State: 12-1, 12-1, 11-2, 8-5, 12-2.
“South Florida: 8-5, 5-7, 3-9, 2-10, 4-8.
“Cincinnati: “4-8, 10-3, 10-3, 9-4, 9-4.
“Memphis: “1-11, 2-10, 4-8, 3-9, 10-3.
“UConn: 8-5, 5-7, 5-7, 3-9, 2-10.
“Houston: 5-7, 13-1, 5-7, 8-5, 8-5.
“San Diego State: 9-4, 8-5, 9-4, 8-5, 7-6.
“Fresno State: 8-5, 4-9, 9-4, 11-2, 6-8.
“Army: 7-6, 3-9, 2-10, 3-9, 4-8.
“Navy: 9-4, 5-7, 8-5, 9-4, 8-5.
“Air Force: 9-4, 7-6, 6-7, 2-10, 10-3.
CONCLUSION
“Different people can look at the same information and come up with different conclusions. With that said, there are a few things that this information suggests to me.
“1. Teams in larger conferences clearly benefit in TV ratings from being in those larger conferences as more casual fans appear to tune in to a game if the game features teams from their own conference.
“2. UCF is the clear best option in terms of what they bring to the table across the board. Geography and lack of history which affect their perception are their only obstacles.
“3. Memphis should not even be in the conversation of joining the Big 12. They fail to produce in nearly every category I looked at.
“4. BYU should be in the mix to join, but for football only.
“5. It is a shame Fresno State and San Diego State are so far out west, because otherwise they would be good potential additions to the conference.
“6. Boise State brings a winning program and little else to the table. If they were to ever fall on hard times, they would be no benefit to the conference whatsoever. Considering even the great programs go through dry spells, you cannot help but feel like Boise's days are numbered. Maybe that isn't fair, but it is realistic. And one has to consider that they may never recover from that dry spell if/when it happens.
“7. If I had to pick four teams to bring in to the Big 12 today based on an aggregate of the information I reviewed, the teams would be UCF, BYU (football only), East Carolina, Cincinnati.”
Great, great stuff from Jason. Now, I don’t agree with all his conclusions. I don’t even agree with all his categories. TV markets inside a state don’t mean much if it’s outside the school’s market. Cleveland doesn’t care about Cincinnati. Miami doesn’t care about UCF. Charlotte doesn’t care about East Carolina.
But this is a very analytical way to view expansion.
Of course, I believe BYU and Boise State are the best options. It comes down to two simple questions.
Who’s got the best chance to build the Big 12 brand with notable victories, in September and in bowls?
Who do fans want to watch, both in person and on television?
But Jason has advanced the discussion, as far as I’m concerned. Thanks, and good luck to your Mountaineers.
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