So, for the OOCs anyway, we all have a vested interest in each other's success.

Eye-balling the games:

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston
Troy: @NC State, Charleston So., @Wisconsin, @Miss St
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech
ULM: @UGA, Nocholls State, @Alabama, @Hawaii

My casual analysis sez 19 wins out of 44 games.

1 P5 win, 8 G5 wins, and all ten over lower division foes.

I hope we win all these and more, but 19 would be an improvement over 2014.

Somehow I missed until now that Troy has three P5s scheduled.

(08-14-2015 02:16 PM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  Somehow I missed until now that Troy has three P5s scheduled.

$$$

Troy vs Charleston Southern

Charleston Southern is ranked in the Top 25 in many polls. They bring back 38 of 44 on the two deep (20 staters) including senior QB Austin Brown. He was UAB's QB in 2013 when the Blazers lost at Troy in overtime on a blocked kick (he may have an added intrinsic desire to beat Troy). They have several P5 transfers on the roster and took Vanderbilt to the wire last season (L, 20-21).

They run a variant of the triple option and usually hog the time of possession stats to keep hurry up offenses of the field. From a defensive installation standpoint (new DC for Troy), it's a rather displacing time to be facing this type of attack (triple option variant).

Check the Sagarin Ratings listed below. I'd stay away from this game if any betting lines are allowed for matchups involving FCS teams. Troy lost 35-38 at home to FCS transitional (from D-II) Abilene Christian last season who is much closer to Troy's rating than the Buccaneers. I'd love to look at this game with Cardinal glasses, but this game is not going to be a cupcake for Troy in Week 2.

Charleston Southern - 124
Troy - 178
((Abilene Christian - 170))

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

(08-14-2015 03:27 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Troy vs Charleston Southern

Charleston Southern is ranked in the Top 25 in many polls. They bring back 38 of 44 on the two deep (20 staters) including senior QB Austin Brown. He was UAB's QB in 2013 when the Blazers lost at Troy in overtime on a blocked kick (he may have an added intrinsic desire to beat Troy). They have several P5 transfers on the roster and took Vanderbilt to the wire last season (L, 20-21).

They run a variant of the triple option and usually hog the time of possession stats to keep hurry up offenses of the field. From a defensive installation standpoint (new DC for Troy), it's a rather displacing time to be facing this type of attack (triple option variant).

Check the Sagarin Ratings listed below. I'd stay away from this game if any betting lines are allowed for matchups involving FCS teams. Troy lost 35-38 at home to FCS transitional (from D-II) Abilene Christian last season who is much closer to Troy's rating than the Buccaneers. I'd love to look at this game with Cardinal glasses, but this game is not going to be a cupcake for Troy in Week 2.

Charleston Southern - 124
Troy - 178
((Abilene Christian - 170))

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

I really hope we win this game because I don't see us winning any of the other three.

ULM has a fifth OOC game against Tulsa as the @Hawaii bonus. I predicted 17 wins, none against the P5 although I think we stand a pretty solid chance Louisiana @ Kentucky and Arkansas State vs Missouri.

Troy should overlook Charleston Southern at their own peril. Especially after the Abeline Christian disaster.

App St @Clemson
Ark St @Southern Cal
Ark St vs. Missouri
GASO @West Virginia
GASO @Georgia
GAST @Oregon
Idaho @Southern Cal
Idaho @Auburn
NMSU @Florida
NMSU @Ole Miss
USA @Nebraska
USA vs. N.C. State
TXST @Florida State
Troy @N.C. State
Troy @Mississippi State
Troy @Wisconsin
ULL @Kentucky
ULM @Georgia
ULM @Alabama

That ^^^ is a tough, tough mountain to climb. If the Belt is able to win any of those games, it will be highly impressive.

(08-15-2015 01:19 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  App St @Clemson
Ark St @Southern Cal
Ark St vs. Missouri
GASO @West Virginia
GASO @Georgia
GAST @Oregon
Idaho @Southern Cal
Idaho @Auburn
NMSU @Florida
NMSU @Ole Miss
USA @Nebraska
USA vs. N.C. State
TXST @Florida State
Troy @N.C. State
Troy @Mississippi State
Troy @Wisconsin
ULL @Kentucky
ULM @Georgia
ULM @Alabama

That ^^^ is a tough, tough mountain to climb. If the Belt is able to win any of those games, it will be highly impressive.

I've got ArkSt over Missouri and decent chance of ULL over Kentucky. An average WKU beat Kentucky twice a couple years ago and UK is breaking in a new offensive coordinator. The rest look like big losses to me.

NC State is always ripe for the picking

(08-14-2015 02:12 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  So, for the OOCs anyway, we all have a vested interest in each other's success.

Eye-balling the games:

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston
Troy: @NC State, Charleston So., @Wisconsin, @Miss St
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech
ULM: @UGA, Nocholls State, @Alabama, @Hawaii

My casual analysis sez 19 wins out of 44 games.

1 P5 win, 8 G5 wins, and all ten over lower division foes.

I hope we win all these and more, but 19 would be an improvement over 2014.

Sorry, but I can realistically only see 12 wins

(08-15-2015 09:45 AM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 02:12 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  So, for the OOCs anyway, we all have a vested interest in each other's success.

Eye-balling the games:

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston
Troy: @NC State, Charleston So., @Wisconsin, @Miss St
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech
ULM: @UGA, Nocholls State, @Alabama, @Hawaii

My casual analysis sez 19 wins out of 44 games.

1 P5 win, 8 G5 wins, and all ten over lower division foes.

I hope we win all these and more, but 19 would be an improvement over 2014.

Sorry, but I can realistically only see 12 wins

Which 12?

90+% wins (11):

App: Howard
ArkSt: Missouri State
GaSo: Western Michigan, Citadel
Idaho: Wofford
USA: Gardiner-Webb
TxSt: PVA&M
Troy: Charleston So.
ULL: NW State, Akron,
ULM: Nocholls State

50/50s(5 of 9)

App: @ODU, Wyoming
Ark St: @Toledo
GASt: UNCC, Liberty
NMSU: @UNM
ULL: @LA Tech
ULM: @Hawaii
TexasSt: S.Miss.

Sneak two more in that we shouldn't win for a total of 18.

(08-15-2015 11:44 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  90+% wins (11):

Troy: Charleston So.

They would beat half the teams in this league. If Troy beats CSU, the Trojans will be a 6+ win team.

I would hope that's not the sole, determining factor...

Preseason #36 in FCS...

(08-15-2015 01:52 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Preseason #36 in FCS...

Some of our teams may be improved, but if we took Georgia State, Idaho, New Mexico State, Troy, and ULM from last season, they would not be in the Top 36 of FCS. Both Sagarin and Massey confirm this among other factors.

CSU finished 26th in the massey ratings last season, and enters 30th in the combined ratings. They are not Gardner Webb or Austin Peay. They are a playoff contender that can play some ball. I doubt Troy would have been a playoff team last season.

They also beat Liberty. A quick look at the AppState/Liberty score and the AppState/Troy score says a 90% chance of win by Troy may be misjudged.

(08-15-2015 01:46 PM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  I would hope that's not the sole, determining factor...

Of course not. I think Neal Brown's done a lot of great things for Troy so far. It'll be interesting to see if those changes can have a positive impact early on.

(08-14-2015 02:12 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  So, for the OOCs anyway, we all have a vested interest in each other's success.

Eye-balling the games:

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston
Troy: @NC State, Charleston So., @Wisconsin, @Miss St
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech
ULM: @UGA, Nocholls State, @Alabama, @Hawaii, AND TULSA

My casual analysis sez 19 wins out of 44 games.

1 P5 win, 8 G5 wins, and all ten over lower division foes.

I hope we win all these and more, but 19 would be an improvement over 2014.

(08-15-2015 10:13 AM)BurlingtonApp Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 09:45 AM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 02:12 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  So, for the OOCs anyway, we all have a vested interest in each other's success.

Eye-balling the games:

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston
Troy: @NC State, Charleston So., @Wisconsin, @Miss St
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech
ULM: @UGA, Nocholls State, @Alabama, @Hawaii

My casual analysis sez 19 wins out of 44 games.

1 P5 win, 8 G5 wins, and all ten over lower division foes.

I hope we win all these and more, but 19 would be an improvement over 2014.

Sorry, but I can realistically only see 12 wins

Which 12?

I've changed my opinion it's 15:

App. State over Howard and ODU.
Arkansas State over Missouri State.
Georgia Southern over The Citadel.
Georgia State over UNCC and Liberty.
USA over Gardner-Webb.
Tex. State over PVA&M and USM.
Troy over Charleston Southern.
Louisiana over Kentucky, NW State and Akron.
UL Monroe over Nicholls State and Hawaii.