(08-08-2015 12:30 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: (08-08-2015 11:08 AM)arkstfan Wrote: (08-08-2015 10:48 AM)GaSoEagle Wrote: At this point I would be very surprised if the 3rd school is jmu or Missouri st.
Applying logic.
If the third school is JMU then we are almost certainly looking to add only one school.
We aren't going to add three to the east to go to 12/14. Doing so makes the Olympic east JMU, APP, GASO, GAST, CCU and two of TROY EKU USA.
Only way I see the obviously west schools liking that is if USA is the school pushed west. Cajuns, Warhawks, LR Trojans, and AState can bus to USA if needed. In all cases if flying Mobile is easier.
After the past history, JMU letting this fly under radar while EKU and CCU are leaking like inflatable rafts hit with buckshot seems improbable. JMU also has comments to walk back.
Missouri State, keeping in under radar with the Springfield press would be a challenge. A snap announcement would set off a number of fans who like finishing behind a better class of hoops teams. This would be the time to soften up the base and explain your concern over the need to be FBS for the long-term health of the program.
NMSU has nothing to back off of. They've previously said they were interested and couldn't get the votes. They can interact with Sun Belt leadership without raising eyebrows since they already do business with the Sun Belt.
If we are applying logic, then this is a one school offer for a 12th school in the east and a travel partner for App State. If there is in fact a third school, then it is Liberty.
Any school that does not make the cut this time around could be a candidate if there is a need to expand in the future. NMSU can be added at anytime. They are not going anywhere and there is no need to go to 14 for Olympic sports at this time.
If we apply logic, a basketball school like Missouri State is never going to leave a bus league and a quality basketball conference for a league like the SBC. When they decide to become a football school first, then maybe they consider FBS football.
I think logic tells me that Coastal Carolina is going to be the choice. They seem to check all the boxes. They get the conference to the long awaited goal of 12/12 for football and basketball.
You can't ignore history.
Just over a year ago the membership agreed it wanted to add a 12th member.
JMU said no. Mo State indicated no interest. Liberty, Jacksonville State, EKU, NMSU expressed interest and the process ended without naming anyone.
By all reliable accounts the process derailed because a group of western schools refused to support any of the eastern options and a group of eastern schools refused to support NMSU.
What has changed regarding Liberty, Jacksonville State, JMU, Mo State, NMSU? Nothing that we know anything about other than some facility work at NMSU.
What has changed with EKU? Stadium upgrade.
What else has changed? Coastal now in the mix.
So maybe Coastal is more appealing to the presidents than the last pool of candidates, EKU is seen as a more appealing and one of those either rejected or rejecting is in a different status.
But is any of this enough to offset the vote split last time where neither a western or eastern school could get 3/4ths vote.
I don't think Liberty is under consideration, circumstances haven't changed enough to be the ONE.
Seems far more likely that NMSU still has western support, there is still insufficient support for them alone or an eastern alone and the solution is to compromise taking two east and one west to get to 12/14