If the PAC-12 expands, they will not add a Christian private school. Above all else, they are liberals.

I would look for a Texas/Texas Tech or a Texas/OSU add.

I don't see the SEC taking both OK schools when they could add 2 new markets instead with OU/NC ST or OU/VA TECH.

ACC would backfill with WVU.

Big-12 would cherry pick from MWC/AAC etc. I would think BYU, Boise State, Houston, Memphis woud be easy adds.

(07-08-2015 02:50 AM)texcane1982 Wrote:  

(06-30-2015 07:23 PM)Bleeds_Purple Wrote:  If it's true it will be OU and OK State to the SEC with Texas and Baylor to the Pac-12 leaving the Big 12 with 6 teams.
WVU
Kansas
Kansas State
TCU
Texas Tech
Iowa State

That's still a nice group my guess is they would stay together and go to 14 or 16 at the least 12 but the smart move would be 14 or 16. I think ECU UCF Cincy UCONN Memphis Houston USF SMU BYU Boise State SDSU would all be looked at.

If the Power 5 ever becomes the Power 4, it can be reasonably expected the 4 major conferences would require equal footing, with all 4 conferences fielding 16 members. Such a move will have almost certainly leave 1 Big 12 school on the outside looking in.

The PAC 12 would likely add Texas, Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech. (Texas State Legislature is not going to allow Texas to leave Baylor, Tech, and TCU behind.

The Big 10 would likely add Kansas and Iowa State.

The SEC would add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

The ACC would likely add West Virginia and Notre Dame. (Such a dramatic shift in the landscape would force Notre Dame out of Independence. Since the ACC does not have a TV network, Notre Dame's TV rights with NBC would likely be negotiated as the ACC's 3rd Tier network, or the ACC would allow Notre Dame to retain the NBC rights, with a revenue distribution to the ACC for conference games played at Notre Dame).

The 4 Power conferences would become filthy rich with new TV deals. The Big 10 Presidents would almost certainly choose Kansas and Iowa State over Kansas State due to academic reputations. Also it would be highly doubtful the PAC 12 would select Kansas State over TCU for the same reason, plus TCU has a major advantage being a private University, something the PAC 12 embraces.

The inevitable courting war between the MWC and AAC over Kansas State probably favors the MWC. The MWC would have the upper hand as BYU would almost certainly return to the MWC, especially with Kansas State significantly raising the MWC profile. If BYU unexpectedly remains Independent then the AAC may have a shot at Kansas State.

The real wildcard in this mess is whether or not the Power 4 pursue guaranteed playoff inclusion to the Power 4 Conference Champions, or leave the qualification as is. With autonomy power, these Conferences in theory can re-write the qualification and there's not a damn thing Kansas State, BYU, or any of the Group of 5 can do about it. This scenario is where we could see the predicted and practically inevitable FBS split between the Power Conferences and Group of 5.

Finally the Red River Rivalry dates back to 1900, Oklahoma and Texas have competed in separate conferences for the better part of 3/4 of the series. This game would not be in danger.


just my .02

TX

At this point in the game, Baylor has less pull in the legislature than Houston. Baylor lucked out in 1993 because the Governor and the Lt Gov both had degrees from Baylor, Tech, or both. That's not the case today. The Gov and Lt Gov both call Houston home. Additionally, my understanding is close to 30% of the legislature has a degree from Houston.

The bottom line--- financially, Baylors fate is of no consequence to the state. On the other hand, the state does way better if Houston (a state public school) is receiving a big fat Pac-12 pay check than if Baylor is getting that same check. The state helps pay the bills at UH---not Baylor. So an extra 20-40 million in revenue helps lower funding needed from the state and fees paid by in-state UH students. If the legislature were to get involved to save a Texas school, its more likely to be Houston than Baylor.

Additionally, the state legislature is trying to develop public tier-I options outside of overcrowded Texas and A&M. Those two schools are rejecting thousands of highly qualified students due to overcrowding and Texas does not want to suffer "brain drain" by losing those kids to out of state schools. The schools that are currently closest to becoming those alternatives are Houston and Tech. The states desperately needs both to offer near Texas/Aggie quality academics and a big time Tier 1 college atmosphere. That means they need both to offer big time college athletics in order for them to be considered a reasonable alternative to Texas/Aggie for high performing students with out of state options.

(07-08-2015 01:03 PM)CAJUNNATION Wrote:  If the PAC-12 expands, they will not add a Christian private school. Above all else, they are liberals.

I would look for a Texas/Texas Tech or a Texas/OSU add.

I don't see the SEC taking both OK schools when they could add 2 new markets instead with OU/NC ST or OU/VA TECH.

ACC would backfill with WVU.

Big-12 would cherry pick from MWC/AAC etc. I would think BYU, Boise State, Houston, Memphis woud be easy adds.

OU and Ok St come as a pair. ACC declined on more than one occasion to add WVU. I do not see WVU heading to the ACC, unless the ACC has a major change of heart. If the ACC is going to launch their network, there are better markets out there than the State of WV.

(07-08-2015 01:42 PM)bearcatmill Wrote:  

(07-08-2015 01:03 PM)CAJUNNATION Wrote:  If the PAC-12 expands, they will not add a Christian private school. Above all else, they are liberals.

I would look for a Texas/Texas Tech or a Texas/OSU add.

I don't see the SEC taking both OK schools when they could add 2 new markets instead with OU/NC ST or OU/VA TECH.

ACC would backfill with WVU.

Big-12 would cherry pick from MWC/AAC etc. I would think BYU, Boise State, Houston, Memphis woud be easy adds.

OU and Ok St come as a pair. ACC declined on more than one occasion to add WVU. I do not see WVU heading to the ACC, unless the ACC has a major change of heart. If the ACC is going to launch their network, there are better markets out there than the State of WV.

I could maybe see OU and OSU splitting, as long as they both have soft landing spots. I don't know how Oklahoma politics work though. I agree about WVU, unless the ACC loses more teams in realignment.

OSU is not going to get the nod to anywhere. THe day Boone Pickens dies is the day their chances of making a move with OU is done. He is politically active and nobody really fills his shoes.

There are many posts that do not make sense in this thread. Especially when it comes to the Big 10 and PAC12.

Big 10 is not taking any school that isnt either AAU or called Notre Dame. I dont care what anybody says. I grew up in Big 10 country, my entire family is alumni and donors... they are elitists and will not do it. They also will not add Iowa St. Iowa would never allow it and it does NOTHING for their network.

1. ISU -
No Big 10. Overlapping markets.
No Pac 12. Market does nothing for their network.
No ACC. Geographically bad, does nothing for their contract.
No SEC... I dont need to explain.

2. KSU -
No Big 10. Academics arent even close
No Pac 12. Academics arent even close
No ACC. Academics arent even close
NO SEC. Market is mainly covered by Missouri and whats left of that market would do any thing for their network

3. Baylor
No Big 10 - Not AAU, doesnt bring enough market to justify addition
No Pac 12 - Pac 12 isnt adding a small, non research, reigious school
No SEC - T A&M has it covered. No financial gain by adding them
ACC - VERY slight possibility as a package with TCU. Academics would work and market "could" be enough as a package

4. TCU
Please see above (ie: baylor)

5. WVU
1. No Big 10. Academics arent even close
2. No Pac 12. Academcis arent even close... not to mention geography
3. No ACC. Been turned down twice, academics arent close. Alot of market is already covered.
4. SEC - VERY VERY slight chance but I doubt it seriously. Market just doesnt add enough. SEC could get bigger fish.

6. Kansas
1. No Big 10. With a $45-50 million payout Kansas market just doesnt add enough. Was passed over multiple times by them and never got consideration. Heavy rumor they are a package deal with KSU.
2. Pac 12 - SLIGHT chance is they arent a package deal with KSU. Again, not nearly enough market and basketball has a cap as far as value. Could work if Paired with texas, but I doubt Texas and Kansas can get rid of their little brothers.
3. No SEC. Missouri has the majority of that market covered and wouldnt bring in network monies.
4. ACC - Very slight chance but doubtful. Again, Basketball has a cap for value and their market is rather small. If they are a package deal with KSU then no. Add in geographic issues and I say its REALLY doubtful.

I wont go to deep into OU or Texas because they have many options. Texas is more limited since the Big 10 and SEC wont take them with their network. ACC they would make about same as now but well below the SEC and B10. Makes me think Pac 12 is their destination. OU is stuck with OSU. They arent going to be seperated. Pac 12 already turned them down without Texas, Big 10 wont take OSU, neither want ACC, so the SEC makes the most sense.

In the end, I believe it will be Oklahoma that starts this up. Too much of what I have read and heard is that they want out and are starting what may be a long process to pull out. If the theory holds, they expect to get denied on expansion which will give them the cover to make the SEC move. They made $31 million in the Big 12... estimates are closer to $45 million in the SEC.... and no having to put up with Texas.

If you honestly look at the first 6 that I listed, I really think their options are limited. In the end, if 7 teams do not leave then they all owe exit fees and penalties which have been estimated at closer to $30 million. Those 6 cant afford that to just end up in the ACC. Maybe WVU goes SEC (slim to none type chance) but if OK and OSU go, then WVU is stuck.

I see those 6 having to rebuild the Big 12 and for ESPN to avoid litigation for helping raid a conference they "own" by another conference they "own" then they will have to agree to rebuild at current income level.

(07-09-2015 09:26 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  There are many posts that do not make sense in this thread. Especially when it comes to the Big 10 and PAC12.

Big 10 is not taking any school that isnt either AAU or called Notre Dame. I dont care what anybody says. I grew up in Big 10 country, my entire family is alumni and donors... they are elitists and will not do it. They also will not add Iowa St. Iowa would never allow it and it does NOTHING for their network.

1. ISU -
No Big 10. Overlapping markets.
No Pac 12. Market does nothing for their network.
No ACC. Geographically bad, does nothing for their contract.
No SEC... I dont need to explain.

2. KSU -
No Big 10. Academics arent even close
No Pac 12. Academics arent even close
No ACC. Academics arent even close
NO SEC. Market is mainly covered by Missouri and whats left of that market would do any thing for their network

3. Baylor
No Big 10 - Not AAU, doesnt bring enough market to justify addition
No Pac 12 - Pac 12 isnt adding a small, non research, reigious school
No SEC - T A&M has it covered. No financial gain by adding them
ACC - VERY slight possibility as a package with TCU. Academics would work and market "could" be enough as a package

4. TCU
Please see above (ie: baylor)

5. WVU
1. No Big 10. Academics arent even close
2. No Pac 12. Academcis arent even close... not to mention geography
3. No ACC. Been turned down twice, academics arent close. Alot of market is already covered.
4. SEC - VERY VERY slight chance but I doubt it seriously. Market just doesnt add enough. SEC could get bigger fish.

6. Kansas
1. No Big 10. With a $45-50 million payout Kansas market just doesnt add enough. Was passed over multiple times by them and never got consideration. Heavy rumor they are a package deal with KSU.
2. Pac 12 - SLIGHT chance is they arent a package deal with KSU. Again, not nearly enough market and basketball has a cap as far as value. Could work if Paired with texas, but I doubt Texas and Kansas can get rid of their little brothers.
3. No SEC. Missouri has the majority of that market covered and wouldnt bring in network monies.
4. ACC - Very slight chance but doubtful. Again, Basketball has a cap for value and their market is rather small. If they are a package deal with KSU then no. Add in geographic issues and I say its REALLY doubtful.

I wont go to deep into OU or Texas because they have many options. Texas is more limited since the Big 10 and SEC wont take them with their network. ACC they would make about same as now but well below the SEC and B10. Makes me think Pac 12 is their destination. OU is stuck with OSU. They arent going to be seperated. Pac 12 already turned them down without Texas, Big 10 wont take OSU, neither want ACC, so the SEC makes the most sense.

In the end, I believe it will be Oklahoma that starts this up. Too much of what I have read and heard is that they want out and are starting what may be a long process to pull out. If the theory holds, they expect to get denied on expansion which will give them the cover to make the SEC move. They made $31 million in the Big 12... estimates are closer to $45 million in the SEC.... and no having to put up with Texas.

If you honestly look at the first 6 that I listed, I really think their options are limited. In the end, if 7 teams do not leave then they all owe exit fees and penalties which have been estimated at closer to $30 million. Those 6 cant afford that to just end up in the ACC. Maybe WVU goes SEC (slim to none type chance) but if OK and OSU go, then WVU is stuck.

I see those 6 having to rebuild the Big 12 and for ESPN to avoid litigation for helping raid a conference they "own" by another conference they "own" then they will have to agree to rebuild at current income level.

I actually agree with you, particularly about the big 10 not taking any non-AAU not named Norte Dame. A couple of Mid West boys rooting for AAC teams now huh? Cheers!

People look at maps and income only. They dont understand the culture of the conferences. The Big 10 are elitists. They believe they are the academic pinnacle of the world outside of the ivy league and there is no way they let anything less than another top 100 program... and even then they would fight.
The Pac 12 is a reasearch based conference with no relgious affiliation. BYU, TCU and Baylor are out automatically and anyone that isnt a Tier 1 research institute with hundreds of millions in research dollars isnt getting in either... so scratch KSU and WVU.
The SEC doesnt NEED anyone and lets be honest, when you get up to the point of making nearly $50 million a year, it takes a REAL special program to move the needle. Theres maybe 2-3 programs left that could make an impact.

The ACC is a different beast. They are viewed as weak and therefore the dumping ground for the remains but in truth, they too are academic elitists. People dont realize they are the highest academically rated conference. Just barely above the Big 10, though the big 10 does have more AAU members. Right now the ACC mix is pretty good and I dont see them expanding unless it moves the needle in a big way. TCU and Baylor could fit academically but do they really have enough of the Texas market to make it worthwhile? Doubt the contract goes up much and its a ton of travel well outside of their geographic footprint.