(06-25-2015 02:51 PM)uconnwhaler Wrote:  maybe there is a #4 team in Kansas that we can give a look.

Pittsburg State Gorillas!

(06-25-2015 03:03 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  Rice is intriguing. Great academics. Great baseball. Helps with the lucrative Texas market.

Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Southern Miss, FAU, FIU, there will be some pretty good schools to choose from. Long term, the southern schools will only get better.

I don't think NIU fits because of geography and demographic projections. Villanova won't want to invest in football, besides Temple would block them.

^ Another reason for no Rice.

Seriously, there is no reason to expand if its going to be a hit to the bottom line (more mouthes, RPI, etc) 10 is more than fine.

(06-25-2015 03:05 PM)DocAllentown Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 03:03 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  Rice is intriguing. Great academics. Great baseball. Helps with the lucrative Texas market.

Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Southern Miss, FAU, FIU, there will be some pretty good schools to choose from. Long term, the southern schools will only get better.

I don't think NIU fits because of geography and demographic projections. Villanova won't want to invest in football, besides Temple would block them.

^ Another reason for no Rice.

Seriously, there is no reason to expand if its going to be a hit to the bottom line (more mouthes, RPI, etc) 10 is more than fine.

Considering that the AAC TV deal goes boom if 2 teams leave (unless it's two group B teams.... which is almost surely not going to happen), you don't know this for certain.

While the AAC tv deal can be terminated, except for the Big 12 taking Cincy, Memphis and UCF/USF, there will still be great value left. I can't see the terms changing that much. Maybe a little less money and less exposure.

If only Cincy and Memphis get taken, then basketball takes a hit, but football isn't that much different. Fox would love to get some AAC content, especially if it only costs $1 million per school. That would be a great deal for Fox and only a little less money than the AAC schools are getting now.

(06-25-2015 03:09 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 03:05 PM)DocAllentown Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 03:03 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  Rice is intriguing. Great academics. Great baseball. Helps with the lucrative Texas market.

Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Southern Miss, FAU, FIU, there will be some pretty good schools to choose from. Long term, the southern schools will only get better.

I don't think NIU fits because of geography and demographic projections. Villanova won't want to invest in football, besides Temple would block them.

^ Another reason for no Rice.

Seriously, there is no reason to expand if its going to be a hit to the bottom line (more mouthes, RPI, etc) 10 is more than fine.

Considering that the AAC TV deal goes boom if 2 teams leave (unless it's two group B teams.... which is almost surely not going to happen), you don't know this for certain.

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

If the AAC got down to 10 teams and Houston was still 1 of the 10 in the conference, we would be in MWC in a split second. No if's and our buts about it.

(06-25-2015 03:21 PM)billetingman1 Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

If the AAC got down to 10 teams and Houston was still 1 of the 10 in the conference, we would be in MWC in a split second. No if's and our buts about it.

That's why Aresco has a plan. If there are defections, you'll see the new teams added very quickly.

Also, don't forget the AAC's ace up their sleeve- Aresco is a former tv guy. He's exactly the right person that you want to lead the negotiations. Fireworks will definitely come out of those meetings!!

(06-25-2015 03:21 PM)billetingman1 Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

If the AAC got down to 10 teams and Houston was still 1 of the 10 in the conference, we would be in MWC in a split second. No if's and our buts about it.

Sounds great to me.

(06-25-2015 03:21 PM)billetingman1 Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

If the AAC got down to 10 teams and Houston was still 1 of the 10 in the conference, we would be in MWC in a split second. No if's and our buts about it.

We (probably) would if any one of those teams were Temple, Cinci, or UConn. That would mean our TV deal gets terminated and we have to start from scratch. At that point, we'd probably look hard at other options.

If it were, say, any two of UCF/USF/ECU/Memphis, then I don't think we'd outright bail. Even if our revenue took a hit to MWC levels (or slightly below), our exposure is 10 times better with our current TV deal than with the MWCs.

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

Rice double dips Houston (unless Houston is one of the teams headed to the Big-12) and S Miss and their tiny 19 million dollar budget isn't really a fit with the other AAC schools anymore. We can be fine at 10---so standing pat is a perfectly viable option. Personally, I'd prefer merging with the top 6-8 MW schools to create a dominant nationwide G5 conference.

(06-25-2015 03:28 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 03:21 PM)billetingman1 Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

If the AAC got down to 10 teams and Houston was still 1 of the 10 in the conference, we would be in MWC in a split second. No if's and our buts about it.

We (probably) would if any one of those teams were Temple, Cinci, or UConn. That would mean our TV deal gets terminated and we have to start from scratch. At that point, we'd probably look hard at other options.

If it were, say, any two of UCF/USF/ECU/Memphis, then I don't think we'd outright bail. Even if our revenue took a hit to MWC levels (or slightly below), our exposure is 10 times better with our current TV deal than with the MWCs.

Negotiating a new TV deal from scratch might not be a bad thing. Even if we lost two, we are not nearly as desperate as we were in early 2013. We have a track record and are no longer a complete unknown. By all accounts, ESPN has been very pleased with our performance. Frankly, I doubt ESPN would cancel or reopen the contract. Based on our performance thus far, they got a hell of a below market deal. Even with the losses they would still be in good shape.

(06-25-2015 03:21 PM)billetingman1 Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

If the AAC got down to 10 teams and Houston was still 1 of the 10 in the conference, we would be in MWC in a split second. No if's and our buts about it.

I will want us going independent if this scenario took place.

(06-25-2015 04:36 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 03:21 PM)billetingman1 Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

If the AAC got down to 10 teams and Houston was still 1 of the 10 in the conference, we would be in MWC in a split second. No if's and our buts about it.

I will want us going independent if this scenario took place.

Bad timing! One of the worst parts about the shift starting now...is we are not completely done with upgrading all of our facilities/coaching situations. We are def' in a better place now, then we were 5 years ago...but I think we will be in even a much better place (more marketable/facilities /better established coaching/competition wise) in 3-5 more years.

I know some schools are a lot worse off then UH... But, as a long time Cougar fan (in school during the SWC days)...it sure seems like the realignment gods hate the Coogs.

(06-25-2015 04:36 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 03:21 PM)billetingman1 Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

If the AAC got down to 10 teams and Houston was still 1 of the 10 in the conference, we would be in MWC in a split second. No if's and our buts about it.

I will want us going independent if this scenario took place.

Indy is a very bad idea for us. It literally takes away the biggest post season prize available for a school like UH. Here is what is likely left of the AAC under the scenario you mention.

UConn
Temple
Navy
ECU
UCF
USF
Tulsa
Tulane
SMU
Houston

Maybe UCF or Houston leaves rather than Memphis. Who knows. But assuming UH is one of the 10 left, Id say we probably stay in the AAC. Like I said, staying with just the 10 above would be better than indy. Unless ESPN really pulls the rug out from under the AAC media deal---staying in the AAC is probably still the best option. By the way, I doubt Aresco adds anyone. Here is why. By adding nobody we all get nearly a half million dollar raise in media pay (22 million divided 9 gives us each 440K more per year). Plus, we would still be sitting on a 100 million dollar realignment fund in the AAC (plus another 20 million from Cinci/Memphis exit fees) which would be divided by 2 fewer teams. That means Cinci's "big" share gets divided among the rest of us---along with the smaller Memphis share.

I'd like to see the AAC move to add 6-8 MW schools, but that might not be met with much enthusiasm by the MW schools unless the plan is backed by a nice bump in pay from ESPN. Assuming that idea is a no go, then Im not against joining the MW at that point----but would it be worth a 10 million dollar exit fee? Probably not. Bottom line, Houston would likely end up seeing more money over the next 4-5 years by staying put in a 10-team AAC. I just don't think Indy is a better option for us.

If we cant add a group of MW schools, I'd look at adding at least 2 basketball schools for Olympic sports only. Wichita is the obvious first choice. Several options for #2 are available. I would not be against adding 3 basketball schools. That would at least help to keep AAC basketball important.

(06-25-2015 05:01 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 04:36 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 03:21 PM)billetingman1 Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 02:55 PM)ElectricCoogaloo Wrote:  If AAC drops down to 10 you can start getting used to calling Rice and Southern Miss conference-mates.

If the AAC got down to 10 teams and Houston was still 1 of the 10 in the conference, we would be in MWC in a split second. No if's and our buts about it.

I will want us going independent if this scenario took place.

Indy is a very bad idea for us. It literally takes away the biggest post season prize available for a school like UH. Here is what is likely left of the AAC under the scenario you mention.

UConn
Temple
Navy
ECU
UCF
USF
Tulsa
Tulane
SMU
Houston

Maybe UCF or Houston leaves rather than Memphis. Who knows. But assuming UH is one of the 10 left, Id say we probably stay in the AAC. Like I said, staying with just the 10 above would be better than indy. Unless ESPN really pulls the rug out from under the AAC media deal---staying in the AAC is probably still the best option. By the way, I doubt Aresco adds anyone. Here is why. By adding nobody we all get nearly a half million dollar raise in media pay (22 million divided 9 gives us each 440K more per year). Plus, we would still be sitting on a 100 million dollar realignment fund in the AAC (plus another 20 million from Cinci/Memphis exit fees) which would be divided by 2 fewer teams. That means Cinci's "big" share gets divided among the rest of us---along with the smaller Memphis share.

I'd like to see the AAC move to add 6-8 MW schools, but that might not be met with much enthusiasm by the MW schools unless the plan is backed by a nice bump in pay from ESPN. Assuming that idea is a no go, then Im not against joining the MW at that point----but would it be worth a 10 million dollar exit fee? Probably not. Bottom line, Houston would likely end up seeing more money over the next 4-5 years by staying put in a 10-team AAC. I just don't think Indy is a better option for us.

If we cant add two MW schools, I'd look at adding 2 basketball school for Olympic sports only. Wichita is the obvious first choice. Several options for #2 are available. I would not be against adding 3 basketball schools. That would at least help to keep AAC basketball important.

+1

Staying at 10 is dangerous in the event that the 10th gets poached.

I can't see nonfootball schools being added. That lesson has been learned.

(06-25-2015 06:02 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  Staying at 10 is dangerous in the event that the 10th gets poached.

I can't see nonfootball schools being added. That lesson has been learned.

How is it dangerous? If one gets poached, then you add. The NBE is at 10. Perhaps we work out our TV deal and finally give Nova their chance to get back on ESPN and play fbs fb. Then the NBE can add.

(06-25-2015 01:37 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  Something that has been addressed, albeit when the future was more speculative, is the direction of the AAC if the Big 12 grabs (likely) Cincy, Memphis, UCF and/or Tulane.

If just Cincy and Memphis, does the AAC use the opportunity to reenforce its southern focus? The only northern schools will be Temple and UConn. Marginally Tulsa is a bit of a geographic outlier, but if the AAC can further penetrate the south, by enticing a Georgian school, or maybe another Florida one, I can't see the long term downside.

Assuming it's Cincy and Memphis, with the combinations of USF/UCF, Houston/SMU/Tulane, that is in the heart of demographic long term growth.

Maybe Southern Miss? Georgia State?

The southern schools won't want a UMass/Buffalo combo. They'll listen to what Uconn and Temple have to say, but at the end of the day, the south is king.

no the north is king. Delaware and Maine are the obvious "back fillers"

(06-25-2015 06:02 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  Staying at 10 is dangerous in the event that the 10th gets poached.

I can't see nonfootball schools being added. That lesson has been learned.

There is really nobody worth adding. Marshall? just makes us look more like CUSA---besides, Marshall cant compete without using non-qualifiers. S Miss? Some history with the existing AAC schools, but their money issues are concerning. NIU---no attendance and do we really want more games in the snow?

There are a couple of promising young programs that might grow into something--but they are not going anywhere. No reason to gamble and select the wrong one. Let things develop and see who makes the best future add a few years down the road (if we ever need an add). Id rather hold at 10 and hope 6-8 MW schools become more interested in creating a national conference over the next few years.

I'm hoping BYU and the Big 12 kiss and make up and they take just one AAC school. I would say Cincy or UCF. West Va would probably push for UC. Aresco has thrown out Army and UMass as possible expansion candidates before so maybe they are his "plan". I would rather stay at 10 then we can be a mini Big 12 that gets all the attention when we talk about maybe we might expand or maybe we will not.

(06-25-2015 06:13 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-25-2015 01:37 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  Something that has been addressed, albeit when the future was more speculative, is the direction of the AAC if the Big 12 grabs (likely) Cincy, Memphis, UCF and/or Tulane.

If just Cincy and Memphis, does the AAC use the opportunity to reenforce its southern focus? The only northern schools will be Temple and UConn. Marginally Tulsa is a bit of a geographic outlier, but if the AAC can further penetrate the south, by enticing a Georgian school, or maybe another Florida one, I can't see the long term downside.

Assuming it's Cincy and Memphis, with the combinations of USF/UCF, Houston/SMU/Tulane, that is in the heart of demographic long term growth.

Maybe Southern Miss? Georgia State?

The southern schools won't want a UMass/Buffalo combo. They'll listen to what Uconn and Temple have to say, but at the end of the day, the south is king.

no the north is king. Delaware and Maine are the obvious "back fillers"

This suggestion is so absurd it can only be based on the posters fear of competing with ODU. We will be the obvious choice in a very few years.