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pfft. In OUR HOUSE?!?!

(06-17-2015 07:18 PM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  pfft. In OUR HOUSE?!?!

It's happened before (being an underdog to a P5 at home and losing) and by more than 21.

MSU is pretty darned good. I hate to sound like a wet blanket, but I chalk up part of the score from our last meeting to MSU using Maxwell at QB and their offense was out of sync. Yes, our guys played pretty well, but we got Sparty in game 1 when they weren't playing very well. Had we played them a few weeks later, it may have been uglier.

I'm hoping to be wrong but MSU will be a huge uphill climb, even at our house. They don't just hand out top 5 rankings to anybody.

I expect us to be better this year but I'm trying to not be unrealistic about our chances against MSU and OSU. I see GSU as a toss-up.

I say 21pts is a fair shot. I would say it should be more like 27, but 21 is understandable since MSU is kicking off first game on the road at our house while they have more adjustments than us coming into the year.

Odds I raise an eyebrow at:
BGSU +24.5, Tennessee -24.5

I know Tennessee is going to be better, but I think so is BGSU with their HC now in his 2nd year. He's a good HC (Eastern Illinois very good in FCS; Won MAC East 1st year HC) -- and Matt Johnson is going to be back at QB which was their main weapon. I think BGSU's D is going to be better, and I see this more being a 17.5pt spread.

UNLV +19.5, NIU -19.5

I know NIU is going to beat them, and this time it's at NIU. NIU is going to be more sound this year, true. But UNLV can only be better than last year, and last year's game was a tight one. UNLV will have some confidence and not be intimidated since they went blow for blow against NIU last year when they were so bad. Unless UNLV has a Really Really Bad hire -- I would say it's more like a 14.5pt spread.

Purdue +12.5, Marshall -12.5

Purdue's on their way up. I am hiv POSITIVE they will be better than last year. And Marshall is not going to be as good as last year -- they lose a lot. They have a good coach though so last year isn't going to be a million miles from where they'll be, but it won't be like that. I expect the spread to be more like a 6.5pt spread for Marshall.

Ohio State -18, VA-Tech +18

Ohio State started off the season not so amazing, was kind of schitzo during the season, but ended it on the high note, even juggling QBs. They lost to VA-Tech at home, and this time they go to VA-Tech. VA-Tech had tons of freshman and it was a down year for them. They are going to be a Much improved team where it matters most: Offense. On D, they're one of the best (and special teams they will be too). I don't see how one can expect OSU to win by 18 *at* VA-Tech, with VA-Tech's D and being improved and less young. I see the spread being more like 12pts Ohio State.

I think the MSU line is pretty realistic at this point. Until practice begins, everything is still based off of last year

Seems like a reasonable spread. I'd probably take the points, actually.

Remember, the odds makers are predicting how people will bet, not the game result.