bryanw1995
+12 Hackmaster
Posts: 13,371
Joined: Jul 2022
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I Root For: A&M
Location: San Antonio
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RE: South Florida is more than a darkhorse candidate for the Big Ten
(04-23-2024 11:42 PM)Skyhawk Wrote: (04-23-2024 10:51 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: (04-23-2024 10:00 PM)Skyhawk Wrote: (04-23-2024 04:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: (04-23-2024 02:22 PM)Skyhawk Wrote: The Big10 said no - repeatedly - to Oregon and Washington.
And that others have noted your opinions - I think that's great. But please remember, we constantly have elections in this country and all sides have lots of data and each side is just certain that the data shows something favorable for them. But in the end, the voters decide, not the analysts -regardless of whatever data they present. In our case here, the "voters" are the member schools of the Big10 and their media partners.
Anyway, my point was what I said - here's my original post for reference:
The point I was making is that since we don't even know whether it was the Big10 or Fox, much less why, there's no way we should then be trying to use what we don't know and then apply it to a different situation.
I've seen data compiled by analysts that the Loch Ness monster may have existed. So, by your reasoning, obviously Bigfoot does too...
You’re being pedantic here.
Oregon and Washington were shown in study to make more money for the Big Ten. They were then ultimately added to the Big Ten. There are lots of factors in conference realignment, but a pretty base level one is that an expansion needs to make more money. So, that Loch Ness/Bigfoot argument that you had is off-kilter.
It is *always* the Big Ten’s decision. Fox can heavily influence that decision by saying that they’ll pay for an expansion or not, but it’s still the Big Ten’s decision.
And even if I’m wrong and everything single thing that you’ve stated is somehow correct, who cares? Does it actually matter if the Fox president called up and ordered the Big Ten to add Oregon and Washington or the other way around? Does it matter that the Big Ten used a study dealing with exactly what they care about expansion (AKA making more money) or if they simply think Oregon and Washington have nice weather in the fall? What does that have anything to do with USF going to the Big Ten, as proposed in the OP, outside of a very recent data point regarding how much additional money it takes for a school to get added to the Big Ten?
It’s like the whole “Disney can just move Disney World across the country and it’s simpler than you think” argument that you had separately and tripling down on it. I mean, if you want to argue something that is .000001% possible (like USF going to the Big Ten) deserves the same amount of weight and time to discuss as something that is 50% possible or even 10% possible, then more power to you. However, just know that my *opinion* is that we’re more likely to see the Loch Ness Monster and Bigfoot playing games in the Big Ten before USF will be. That would actually be a more interesting discussion than trying to argue about whatever you’re trying to say about Oregon and Washington going to the Big Ten (which I honestly still don’t know where it’s coming from about whether the Big Ten or Fox made a decision or they did or didn’t use a study… none of it matters).
histrionics and exaggeration isn't a logical argument either - shrugs
I get it. You're trying to minimize my perspective in order to dismiss it. Again - lawyerly debating tactics. And that's fine. "Welcome to the internet".
But to try to address your comments (in no particular order) -
The premise of the Disney thing was whether Disney needed Florida as much as Florida needed Disney. And my answer was (and still is) an unequivocal "no". Your issue is that you vague-waved at big numbers and big sizes and called things impossible. That's fine. Not everyone has ever seen how large corporations write off locations and move what's necessary and "address" the rest. Big does not mean impossible - nowhere near - especially if you are talking about having billions of dollars to do it. If Florida made Disney's situation in Florida untenable (and presuming external forces didn't step in), I have zero doubt that Disney would be gone in a heartbeat.
And yes, it's the Big10's "vote". But there are several stakeholders involved. We know this because it was stated that originally the plan, was to be USC and Oregon, and Fox balked and so it became USC and UCLA.
So there is influence.
My point was that, while it's great to be able to see the data that the Big10 may have looked at while deciding on realignment-related things, we have no way to know how that data may have influenced the Big10's decision, or whether that data was influential at all.
In any decision-making situation, there may be people who advise, and people who may have influence. But the decision-maker/voter doesn't necessarily go with any particular route. To know that, all we have to do is look at any legislature.
I think you make a mistake to treat an analysis that you agree with to be true and one that you don't as "ridiculous". There's plenty of "ridiculousness" out there - as I said "Welcome to the internet". But I presented why my opinion was what it was.
And rather than address the points of the whys of the opinion I presented, you went full on ad hominem.
I've re-read your post, and I'm just not seeing any argument disputing that the Big10 wants into Florida. Or that Tampa Bay is a market there. (That I think USF and Miami getting AAU before schools like Georgia was not a coincidence, is merely a guess on my part. But I think it's a pretty safe guess.)
And finally, your last line:
Quote:(which I honestly still don’t know where it’s coming from about whether the Big Ten or Fox made a decision or they did or didn’t use a study… none of it matters).
If you don't understand that, then you miss the point.
If you want to try to assess (guess) at a future decision. One way is to look at the past. But if you merely look at an outcome you will come to a flawed conclusion - ask any scientist. Instead you look at causes. And in this case, motivations. If the causes are not the same, or even similar, then the two events are not comparable, and should not be used to try to predict future events.
Which (again) brings us back around to the hackneyed nonsense of trying to use Stanford (or Buffalo for that matter) as comparisons.
YMMV (and pretty clearly does...)
I feel like Michael Corleone - every time I think I’m out, you pull me back in with just a wacky response.
Hackneyed nonsense is legitimately arguing that Disney would spend several hundred billion dollars buying up land area the size of San Francisco (and yes, the size comparison does matter because that is literally what it would take - we’re not talking about opening up a new Mattress Firm location), raze the existing Disney World, and rebuild it somewhere else. If you can’t even acknowledge this and go on and talk to me - someone that has spent a long time as a corporate executive and lawyer along with being at one of the major accounting firms - as if I haven’t seen how companies write off capital costs and expenses in some patronizing tone, then I’m going to respond in kind.
That isn't what needs to be done. That's your assessment of the implementation plan and of "immediate" costs. But I said in that thread we could table that, and I'm fine with doing so - you were who brought it up again...
(04-23-2024 10:51 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: And no, the Big Ten doesn’t “want into Florida”. The Big Ten wants *national* brands that make money. I’ve said that probably 10,000 times over the past two years. FSU and Miami are two brands that likely make money for the Big Ten based on historical TV ratings and they happen to be located in Florida. However, thinking that it’s just about getting into Florida with anyone is the tail wagging the dog. The Tampa market is nice, but it’s irrelevant compared to the value of national brands. The Big Ten isn’t adding USF to get into Florida any more than it’s adding Rice to get into Texas. We’re past that now - it’s the end game of consolidating the very best premium brands. That has been my position for quite awhile and I think I’ve been pretty clear about that everywhere.
bolded - thank you for the first time actually addressing my presented opinion.
As for your response, the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive. These decisions aren't made in a vacuum. And synergies are important.
But while I don't think the threshhold you note has passed yet, I do agree that it's likely coming soon. The results of the CFP negotiations (for example) definitely felt like at least one nail in the coffin for college sports.
I wonder, if FSU joins the SEC. And the ACC then adds USF as backfill, and the following year, the ACC were to implode like the PAC, would USF suddenly no longer be considered "G5" and therefore be eligible in some minds for a Big10 invite? (I understand - you're focused on marketing/branding - but it's just an interesting thought.)
(04-23-2024 10:51 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: So, if you want to show me a bunch of national TV ratings that support your hypothesis that USF would actually make money for the Big Ten, then go ahead and do so and I’d be happy to reconsider my position on your viewpoint. Otherwise, you can cut the crap on calling my arguments vague when all you’re saying is, “The Big Ten wants to go to Florida and you can’t prove that they don’t want to go to Florida… but actual evidence of things like reported studies that indicate the Big Ten’s priorities aren’t good enough for proof and we’re totally guessing on why they added Washington and Oregon because we don’t have video evidence of Big Ten and Fox executives discussing that specific study… but it’s totally not a guess that the Big Ten wants USF because the Big Ten obviously wants into Florida and that means they obviously would want to be in Tampa and you can’t prove it otherwise.”
Again, thanks for your response.
There are many ways in which adding a school is beneficial to a conference. It's not just about the front end.
But I'll agree with you that diving into the weeds in that with you is probably not a productive use of time.
We disagree. That's absolutely fine.
That you're so dismissive is just "something".
Citing opinions and stating why, is how one has a discussion. stating an opinion and not discussing the whys, is merely two people talking past each other.
It's not hard to see which of those this has been...
(04-23-2024 10:51 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: I’m done arguing with you on this topic and I give JRsec permission to whack any additional responses that I have to you in this thread in the event that I fall off the wagon. This discussion is almost as dumb as the Disney World one.
Sigh - when in doubt, continue the attack...
Uptown got its hustlers
The Bowery got its bums
42nd Street got big Jim Walker
He a pool-shootin' son of a gun
Yeah, he big and dumb as a man can come
But he stronger than a country hoss
And when the bad folks all get together at night
You know they all call big Jim "Boss", just because
And they say
"You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with Jim"
Well, outta south Alabama came a country boy
He said, "I'm lookin' for a man named Jim
I am a pool-shootin' boy, my name is Willie McCoy
But down at home they call me Slim
Yeah, I'm lookin' for the king of 42nd Street
He drivin' a drop top Cadillac
Last week he took all my money, and it may sound funny
But I come to get my money back"
And everybody say, "Jack, ooh, don't you know
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with Jim"
Well, a hush fell over the pool room
Jimmy come boppin' in off the street
And when the cuttin' was done
The only part that wasn't bloody
Was the soles of the big man's feet, woo
Yeah, he was cut in 'bout a hundred places
And he was shot in a couple more
And you better believe
They sung a different kind of story
When big Jim hit the floor, oh
There's a sayin'
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with Slim
Yeah, big Jim got his hat
Find out where it's at
It's not hustlin' people strange to you
Even if you do got a two piece custom-made pool cue
Yeah, you don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with Slim
When Jim Delany prints out your blog and passes it out at B1G meetings, you should be considered somewhat of an expert on the B1G. When you’re able to refine your views based upon a changing landscape, as Frank has over the past couple of years, then you reinforce why you came to be considered an expert in the first place. That doesn’t mean that Frank is always right, but I’ll say this much: he’s the “slim” in this conversation. If you’re going to go after him, then you had best come correct.
Come up with something better than “but, but FLORIDA”. If the Big 12 and ACC aren’t interested in you, then the B1G thinks you’re one of the San Ti’s bugs.
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