The unofficial online home for fans of the Western Michigan University Broncos. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

No way, Todd. TM is correct. Without a signature P5 win, a 3 loss MAC team has no shot at the top 25, MAC champ or not.

I can't believe that you posted your analysis without your signature % chances.

(05-31-2015 07:37 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:No way a MAC team with three losses finishes in Top-25, unless they have an impressive win against a P5 opponent.

I disagree. It's very low-likely, but it could happen. If 2 of your teams are in the Top 5, while also having a conference champ, a ranked team, and a division champ in your schedule -- along with an extra challenging (conf champ) game had that they win -- 3 wins could do it. It would also require playing such Top 5 teams pretty challenging + stomping everyone you should be way better than.

Interesting debate. I did a little research - here's a breakdown using the MAC teams that have finished the season ranked in the final AP Top 25 over the course of the past 20 years:

1995: Toledo (final ranking: #24)
Total losses: 0 (one tie)
P5 wins: None
P5 opponents: None

1999: Marshall (#10)
Total losses: 0
P5 wins: at Clemson (13-10)
P5 losses: None

2001: Toledo (#23)
Total losses: 2
P5 wins: Minnesota (38-7)
P5 losses: None

2002: Marshall (#24)
Total losses: 2
P5 wins: None
P5 losses: at Virginia Tech

2003: Miami (#10)
Total losses: 1
P5 wins: at Northwestern (44-14)
P5 losses: at Iowa

2003: Bowling Green (#23)
Total losses: 3
P5 wins: at #16 Purdue (27-26), Northwestern (bowl, 28-24)
P5 losses: at #4 Ohio State (24-17)

2009: Central Michigan (#24)
Total losses: 2
P5 wins: at Michigan State (29-27)
P5 losses: at Arizona, at Boston College

2012: Northern Illinois (#22)
Total losses: 2
P5 wins: Kansas (30-23)
P5 losses: Iowa (neutral site), Florida State (bowl)

I certainly agree with the general consensus that it's extremely unlikely. 2003 BG is the only MAC team in the past 20 years to finish in the final Top 25 with three losses, and that BG team beat a ranked B1G team, another B1G team, and an unbeaten ranked MAC opponent (NIU) in front of the ESPN College Gameday crew.

There are just too many three- and even four-loss P5 teams playing P5 schedules populating the back end of the Top-25 for a three-loss MAC team without any P5 wins to break through. It's all about strength of schedule perception with the voters.

2003 BG actually met most of Todd's criteria:
- Two teams in the Top 5: Not quite, but won at #16 Purdue and only lost by a TD at #4 Ohio State
- Conference champ: Yes, played twice (Miami)
- Ranked team: Yes, two wins (at #16 Purdue and against #12 NIU) and two other ranked opponents (at OSU, Miami in the MACC)
- Division champ: Yes, played twice (Miami)
- Extra-challenging championship game: Yes (lost convincing at home to Miami)

The bottom line, though, is that BG team still wouldn't have been in the Top 25 without those P5 wins (at Purdue, vs. NW in the bowl) and, in this instance, the need for P5 victories lies at the heart of the argument.

(On a related note, the MAC was probably as strong as it's ever been in 2003...)