(05-20-2015 02:55 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  The AAC's best option is for ESPN or Fox to get all of the B1G contract. Then the one that is left out will be motivated to acquire content in those states. ESPN may want to add a couple northern states to the conference to extend our coverage in the region and provide them content for advertisers. Fox may want an eastern conference to call their own. Either of those would benefit us. It all hinges on the B1G and what they do with their contract.

At least that's the way I see it.

Honestly, I've not been following these aspects... When exactly is the B1G contract up? After 2017 season? I'm assuming you mean here that if ESPN loses the B1G, that they might be willing to pay more for our conference?

(05-20-2015 04:39 PM)Bull Wrote:  

(05-20-2015 02:55 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  The AAC's best option is for ESPN or Fox to get all of the B1G contract. Then the one that is left out will be motivated to acquire content in those states. ESPN may want to add a couple northern states to the conference to extend our coverage in the region and provide them content for advertisers. Fox may want an eastern conference to call their own. Either of those would benefit us. It all hinges on the B1G and what they do with their contract.

At least that's the way I see it.

Honestly, I've not been following these aspects... When exactly is the B1G contract up? After 2017 season? I'm assuming you mean here that if ESPN loses the B1G, that they might be willing to pay more for our conference?

Exactly that but, only if they are totally locked out and it would depend on the length of that contract as well. The same goes for Fox.

As Ive said for a while, I think we maximize our value by going nationwide. That gives us a unique identity that we do not have at this time. However, I don't think a solid viable economical nationwide conference is possible without divisional deregulation. We cant really do anything until the rules surrounding deregulation come down. My master plan would be to add 6 top MW schools to create a far western all sports division. Additionally, I would want to add one non-football school to each division to upgrade the basketball profile. The two current AAC divisions would remain unchanged except that each would get a non-football member (the east gets VCU, the central gets Wichita). The MW division gets BYU Olympics. The deal would also set up a scheduling agreement with BYU. My preferred MW division would take the Air Force, Boise, and Fresno as those are the top 3 football names in the conference. I'd also grab SDSU (decent football, good basketball), and the last two slots would be 2 of the UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado St. That gives you solid football and basketball in the west. Taken as a whole, the conference would be the only nationwide conference (gives us the unique identity we currently lack), the dominate G5 football force, and a top 3 basketball conference. We would have two state flagships, two academies, a large number of major markets, we would cover most areas of the country, we would cover all 4 time zones, and we would represent the closest thing to a "best of the rest" conference possible. I believe such a conference would represent the maximum value possible to networks using just G5 parts.

Such a conference would be a perfect achor for an NBS entry into the college FBS tv market and it would be an excellent filler property for both Fox and ESPN. I doubt ESPN would want anyone else to have it---especially if ESPN loses some Big-10 inventory when the B1G contract is up for renegotion in a year or two.

(05-20-2015 05:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  As Ive said for a while, I think we maximize our value by going nationwide. That gives us a unique identity that we do not have at this time. However, I don't think a solid viable economical nationwide conference is possible without divisional deregulation. We cant really do anything until the rules surrounding deregulation come down. My master plan would be to add 6 top MW schools to create a far western all sports division. Additionally, I would want to add one non-football school to each division to upgrade the basketball profile. The two current AAC divisions would remain unchanged except that each would get a non-football member (the east gets VCU, the central gets Wichita). The MW division gets BYU Olympics. The deal would also set up a scheduling agreement with BYU. My preferred MW division would take the Air Force, Boise, and Fresno as those are the top 3 football names in the conference. I'd also grab SDSU (decent football, good basketball), and the last two slots would be 2 of the UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado St. That gives you solid football and basketball in the west. Taken as a whole, the conference would be the only nationwide conference (gives us the unique identity we currently lack), the dominate G5 football force, and a top 3 basketball conference. We would have two state flagships, two academies, a large number of major markets, we would cover most areas of the country, we would cover all 4 time zones, and we would represent the closest thing to a "best of the rest" conference possible. I believe such a conference would represent the maximum value possible to networks using just G5 parts.

Such a conference would be a perfect achor for an NBS entry into the college FBS tv market and it would be an excellent filler property for both Fox and ESPN. I doubt ESPN would want anyone else to have it---especially if ESPN loses some Big-10 inventory when the B1G contract is up for renegotion in a year or two.

The problem with your scenario is that such a conference holds only half value. I'll explain.

1, ESPN has numerous properties in the eastern US, they do not need any more eastern inventory. That's partly why our current contract is so low. ESPN would only need us if the PAC's new model becomes more troublesome to deal with then it already is and then they'd have us expand west. Face it, with ESPN we're only filler even if we go national.

2, Fox has the western and central properties and would only really need us if they lose the B1G. If Fox loses out on the B1G, then we could become a prime property for them to have, as we'd be built up as a challenger to the status quo in the east. We'd be a Long-Term property of Fox and thus worthy of investing heavily in.

3, The only real interest in a National Conference is from an entirely new entity. Say Comcast enters the market, then that type of Conference would be a sure fire investment for them.

Would a Coast to Coast conference be viable, yes. It could be quite lucrative on TV but, it doesn't "FIT THE NEEDS" of the current media companies. That's our major problem. We can be used to "Saturate" a market but not really giving them any markets they do not already have access too.

(05-20-2015 06:17 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  

(05-20-2015 05:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  As Ive said for a while, I think we maximize our value by going nationwide. That gives us a unique identity that we do not have at this time. However, I don't think a solid viable economical nationwide conference is possible without divisional deregulation. We cant really do anything until the rules surrounding deregulation come down. My master plan would be to add 6 top MW schools to create a far western all sports division. Additionally, I would want to add one non-football school to each division to upgrade the basketball profile. The two current AAC divisions would remain unchanged except that each would get a non-football member (the east gets VCU, the central gets Wichita). The MW division gets BYU Olympics. The deal would also set up a scheduling agreement with BYU. My preferred MW division would take the Air Force, Boise, and Fresno as those are the top 3 football names in the conference. I'd also grab SDSU (decent football, good basketball), and the last two slots would be 2 of the UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado St. That gives you solid football and basketball in the west. Taken as a whole, the conference would be the only nationwide conference (gives us the unique identity we currently lack), the dominate G5 football force, and a top 3 basketball conference. We would have two state flagships, two academies, a large number of major markets, we would cover most areas of the country, we would cover all 4 time zones, and we would represent the closest thing to a "best of the rest" conference possible. I believe such a conference would represent the maximum value possible to networks using just G5 parts.

Such a conference would be a perfect achor for an NBS entry into the college FBS tv market and it would be an excellent filler property for both Fox and ESPN. I doubt ESPN would want anyone else to have it---especially if ESPN loses some Big-10 inventory when the B1G contract is up for renegotion in a year or two.

The problem with your scenario is that such a conference holds only half value. I'll explain.

1, ESPN has numerous properties in the eastern US, they do not need any more eastern inventory. That's partly why our current contract is so low. ESPN would only need us if the PAC's new model becomes more troublesome to deal with then it already is and then they'd have us expand west. Face it, with ESPN we're only filler even if we go national.

2, Fox has the western and central properties and would only really need us if they lose the B1G. If Fox loses out on the B1G, then we could become a prime property for them to have, as we'd be built up as a challenger to the status quo in the east. We'd be a Long-Term property of Fox and thus worthy of investing heavily in.

3, The only real interest in a National Conference is from an entirely new entity. Say Comcast enters the market, then that type of Conference would be a sure fire investment for them.

Would a Coast to Coast conference be viable, yes. It could be quite lucrative on TV but, it doesn't "FIT THE NEEDS" of the current media companies. That's our major problem. We can be used to "Saturate" a market but not really giving them any markets they do not already have access too.

I disagree completely. You said it yourself---ESPN doesn't need more eastern content. Well folks---that's bad news for the current AAC model since "eastern content" is all we presently offer. By the way, even under my scenario, we still are just filler.

Here is where my scenario is different. You are taking the best of the G5 and making something totally new. The resulting national conference is appealing to ESPN because their games are broadcast nationally. The same game on ESPN in Philly is also on in San Diego. Wouldn't it be better if both San Diego and Philly both had passing interest in the game because both had teams in that conference? Wouldn't a national conference with all 4 time zones be more flexible as a filler conference? Wouldn't a conference that dominates the access bowl be the best filler conference to have (especially as more and more P5 content moves toward conference owned networks)?. Plus, the expanded AAC I describe would be a spectacular basketball conference and a valuable stand alone property all by itself.

Frankly, I think a national AAC is the perfect property for NBC-Sports and NBC. My guess is that ESPN knows that as well. Which is why they would be willing to pay decent money to keep it off the market (not to mention it functions as a programing insurance policy as ESPN P5 inventory begins to flow toward the conference owned networks).

(05-20-2015 08:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-20-2015 06:17 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  

(05-20-2015 05:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  As Ive said for a while, I think we maximize our value by going nationwide. That gives us a unique identity that we do not have at this time. However, I don't think a solid viable economical nationwide conference is possible without divisional deregulation. We cant really do anything until the rules surrounding deregulation come down. My master plan would be to add 6 top MW schools to create a far western all sports division. Additionally, I would want to add one non-football school to each division to upgrade the basketball profile. The two current AAC divisions would remain unchanged except that each would get a non-football member (the east gets VCU, the central gets Wichita). The MW division gets BYU Olympics. The deal would also set up a scheduling agreement with BYU. My preferred MW division would take the Air Force, Boise, and Fresno as those are the top 3 football names in the conference. I'd also grab SDSU (decent football, good basketball), and the last two slots would be 2 of the UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado St. That gives you solid football and basketball in the west. Taken as a whole, the conference would be the only nationwide conference (gives us the unique identity we currently lack), the dominate G5 football force, and a top 3 basketball conference. We would have two state flagships, two academies, a large number of major markets, we would cover most areas of the country, we would cover all 4 time zones, and we would represent the closest thing to a "best of the rest" conference possible. I believe such a conference would represent the maximum value possible to networks using just G5 parts.

Such a conference would be a perfect achor for an NBS entry into the college FBS tv market and it would be an excellent filler property for both Fox and ESPN. I doubt ESPN would want anyone else to have it---especially if ESPN loses some Big-10 inventory when the B1G contract is up for renegotion in a year or two.

The problem with your scenario is that such a conference holds only half value. I'll explain.

1, ESPN has numerous properties in the eastern US, they do not need any more eastern inventory. That's partly why our current contract is so low. ESPN would only need us if the PAC's new model becomes more troublesome to deal with then it already is and then they'd have us expand west. Face it, with ESPN we're only filler even if we go national.

2, Fox has the western and central properties and would only really need us if they lose the B1G. If Fox loses out on the B1G, then we could become a prime property for them to have, as we'd be built up as a challenger to the status quo in the east. We'd be a Long-Term property of Fox and thus worthy of investing heavily in.

3, The only real interest in a National Conference is from an entirely new entity. Say Comcast enters the market, then that type of Conference would be a sure fire investment for them.

Would a Coast to Coast conference be viable, yes. It could be quite lucrative on TV but, it doesn't "FIT THE NEEDS" of the current media companies. That's our major problem. We can be used to "Saturate" a market but not really giving them any markets they do not already have access too.

I disagree completely. You said it yourself---ESPN doesn't need more eastern content. Well folks---that's bad news for the current AAC model since "eastern content" is all we presently offer. By the way, even under my scenario, we still are just filler.

Here is where my scenario is different. You are taking the best of the G5 and making something totally new. The resulting national conference is appealing to ESPN because their games are broadcast nationally. The same game on ESPN in Philly is also on in San Diego. Wouldn't it be better if both San Diego and Philly both had passing interest in the game because both had teams in that conference? Wouldn't a national conference with all 4 time zones be more flexible as a filler conference? Wouldn't a conference that dominates the access bowl be the best filler conference to have (especially as more and more P5 content moves toward conference owned networks)?. Plus, the expanded AAC I describe would be a spectacular basketball conference and a valuable stand alone property all by itself.

Frankly, I think a national AAC is the perfect property for NBC-Sports and NBC. My guess is that ESPN knows that as well. Which is why they would be willing to pay decent money to keep it off the market (not to mention it functions as a programing insurance policy as inventory begins to flow toward the conference owned networks).

ESPN already has the ACC and the SEC. They could simply expand the MWC if the PAC becomes too difficult or expand the American. Which do you think would be easier for them since they already have the MWC and American under thumb.

A truly national conference isn't that exciting unless it's providing access to areas not already owned or is used to saturate that market. The combination of best parts of the American and the MWC would still be filler as you stated and not worth a premium price. That's my entire point.

We the American need for either Fox to lose out on the B1G or for ESPN to lose out on the B1G. Our being in northern markets helps us with ESPN, while being primarily an eastern conference helps us with Fox. Either way we would expand to suit the needs of the network. That's what you're not seeing.

(05-20-2015 08:14 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  

(05-20-2015 08:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-20-2015 06:17 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  

(05-20-2015 05:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  As Ive said for a while, I think we maximize our value by going nationwide. That gives us a unique identity that we do not have at this time. However, I don't think a solid viable economical nationwide conference is possible without divisional deregulation. We cant really do anything until the rules surrounding deregulation come down. My master plan would be to add 6 top MW schools to create a far western all sports division. Additionally, I would want to add one non-football school to each division to upgrade the basketball profile. The two current AAC divisions would remain unchanged except that each would get a non-football member (the east gets VCU, the central gets Wichita). The MW division gets BYU Olympics. The deal would also set up a scheduling agreement with BYU. My preferred MW division would take the Air Force, Boise, and Fresno as those are the top 3 football names in the conference. I'd also grab SDSU (decent football, good basketball), and the last two slots would be 2 of the UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado St. That gives you solid football and basketball in the west. Taken as a whole, the conference would be the only nationwide conference (gives us the unique identity we currently lack), the dominate G5 football force, and a top 3 basketball conference. We would have two state flagships, two academies, a large number of major markets, we would cover most areas of the country, we would cover all 4 time zones, and we would represent the closest thing to a "best of the rest" conference possible. I believe such a conference would represent the maximum value possible to networks using just G5 parts.

Such a conference would be a perfect achor for an NBS entry into the college FBS tv market and it would be an excellent filler property for both Fox and ESPN. I doubt ESPN would want anyone else to have it---especially if ESPN loses some Big-10 inventory when the B1G contract is up for renegotion in a year or two.

The problem with your scenario is that such a conference holds only half value. I'll explain.

1, ESPN has numerous properties in the eastern US, they do not need any more eastern inventory. That's partly why our current contract is so low. ESPN would only need us if the PAC's new model becomes more troublesome to deal with then it already is and then they'd have us expand west. Face it, with ESPN we're only filler even if we go national.

2, Fox has the western and central properties and would only really need us if they lose the B1G. If Fox loses out on the B1G, then we could become a prime property for them to have, as we'd be built up as a challenger to the status quo in the east. We'd be a Long-Term property of Fox and thus worthy of investing heavily in.

3, The only real interest in a National Conference is from an entirely new entity. Say Comcast enters the market, then that type of Conference would be a sure fire investment for them.

Would a Coast to Coast conference be viable, yes. It could be quite lucrative on TV but, it doesn't "FIT THE NEEDS" of the current media companies. That's our major problem. We can be used to "Saturate" a market but not really giving them any markets they do not already have access too.

I disagree completely. You said it yourself---ESPN doesn't need more eastern content. Well folks---that's bad news for the current AAC model since "eastern content" is all we presently offer. By the way, even under my scenario, we still are just filler.

Here is where my scenario is different. You are taking the best of the G5 and making something totally new. The resulting national conference is appealing to ESPN because their games are broadcast nationally. The same game on ESPN in Philly is also on in San Diego. Wouldn't it be better if both San Diego and Philly both had passing interest in the game because both had teams in that conference? Wouldn't a national conference with all 4 time zones be more flexible as a filler conference? Wouldn't a conference that dominates the access bowl be the best filler conference to have (especially as more and more P5 content moves toward conference owned networks)?. Plus, the expanded AAC I describe would be a spectacular basketball conference and a valuable stand alone property all by itself.

Frankly, I think a national AAC is the perfect property for NBC-Sports and NBC. My guess is that ESPN knows that as well. Which is why they would be willing to pay decent money to keep it off the market (not to mention it functions as a programing insurance policy as inventory begins to flow toward the conference owned networks).

ESPN already has the ACC and the SEC. They could simply expand the MWC if the PAC becomes too difficult or expand the American. Which do you think would be easier for them since they already have the MWC and American under thumb.

A truly national conference isn't that exciting unless it's providing access to areas not already owned or is used to saturate that market. The combination of best parts of the American and the MWC would still be filler as you stated and not worth a premium price. That's my entire point.

We the American need for either Fox to lose out on the B1G or for ESPN to lose out on the B1G. Our being in northern markets helps us with ESPN, while being primarily an eastern conference helps us with Fox. Either way we would expand to suit the needs of the network. That's what you're not seeing.

I understand what you are saying. I just don't see it making much difference. If the bar for a national G5 conference is to command a premium P5 price---its never happening for all the reasons you mention and more. Im not suggesting it will. Im suggesting that building a better quality conference will increase its value. Im also suggesting that a conference footprint that is not regional, but instead features the same footprint as a national broadcast footprint---is a better fit for ANY national sports network. Thus, the best way to maximize the media payout using G5 parts is to get the "best of the G5" and organize it into a national conference. I'd guess the best case scenario is over a couple of contract cycles that such a conference could approach half the per team value of a P5 conference. By the way, a national conference can add teams anywhere. So, its completely flexible with regard to bulking up its presence in any area that a network would want to reach.

(05-20-2015 08:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I understand what you are saying. I just don't see it making much difference. If the bar for a national G5 conference is to command a premium P5 price---its never happening for all the reasons you mention and more. Im not suggesting it will. Im suggesting that building a better quality conference will increase its value. Im also suggesting that a conference footprint that is not regional, but instead features the same footprint as a national broadcast footprint---is a better fit for ANY national sports network. Thus, the best way to maximize the media payout using G5 parts is to get the "best of the G5" and organize it into a national conference. I'd guess the best case scenario is over a couple of contract cycles that such a conference could approach half the per team value of a P5 conference. By the way, a national conference can add teams anywhere. So, its completely flexible with regard to bulking up its presence in any area that a network would want to reach.

I say we sit and watch who's the loser in the B1G sweepstakes and then approach them asking how we could help them over come their loss. We should have both a regional and national list of expansion candidates in hand, just in case.

(05-20-2015 08:46 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  

(05-20-2015 08:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I understand what you are saying. I just don't see it making much difference. If the bar for a national G5 conference is to command a premium P5 price---its never happening for all the reasons you mention and more. Im not suggesting it will. Im suggesting that building a better quality conference will increase its value. Im also suggesting that a conference footprint that is not regional, but instead features the same footprint as a national broadcast footprint---is a better fit for ANY national sports network. Thus, the best way to maximize the media payout using G5 parts is to get the "best of the G5" and organize it into a national conference. I'd guess the best case scenario is over a couple of contract cycles that such a conference could approach half the per team value of a P5 conference. By the way, a national conference can add teams anywhere. So, its completely flexible with regard to bulking up its presence in any area that a network would want to reach.

I say we sit and watch who's the loser in the B1G sweepstakes and then approach them asking how we could help them over come their loss.

lol....well we certainly have the time!

20 mil per school per year, that includes the 6 MWC schools that the AAC poaches. BYU, Air Force, Colorado St, Boise, SDSU and one of either UNLV/NM/Fresno All games on NBC OTA, Fox OTA and ABC/ESPN. No Thursday or Friday games. An AAC network that's owned entirely by the 18 schools of the AAC. This is where we place our 3rd tier rights games. A 12 year deal with a 6 year "look in".-- a real one, not fake look in like the current one. I'm as serious as the posters who've now taken down their contract prediction posts in 2012 about the current 2014-2020 TV contract. I may be a little lower than their predictions on total $. I don't want to get too greedy.

We won't see anywhere near 20 mil. No matter who we add. It would be amazing to see 1/2 of that amount.

The AAC owning it's digital media rights is another bargaining tool with ESPN. The ability to distribute content to AAC fans on our own will come into play when the age of a middle man (comcast, verizon fios ect) comes to an end (direct/roku type providers) ESPN will want to own those rights. ESPN renegoiated the MAC tc deal which included their digital media rights. As the AAC Digital Network Grows so will its' value to not only all the AAC schools but also to a media giant like ESPN who will see its day in the sun coming to an end if they don't snap up the future of distribution. Really a smart forward thinking move by Aresco and the Presidents of the AAC schools.

(05-21-2015 07:52 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  20 mil per school per year, that includes the 6 MWC schools that the AAC poaches. BYU, Air Force, Colorado St, Boise, SDSU and one of either UNLV/NM/Fresno All games on NBC OTA, Fox OTA and ABC/ESPN. No Thursday or Friday games. An AAC network that's owned entirely by the 18 schools of the AAC. This is where we place our 3rd tier rights games. A 12 year deal with a 6 year "look in".-- a real one, not fake look in like the current one. I'm as serious as the posters who've now taken down their contract prediction posts in 2012 about the current 2014-2020 TV contract. I may be a little lower than their predictions on total $. I don't want to get too greedy.

LOL!!!!!!!!!!! no

I wish our media rights were with ESPN - at least that interface on ESPN3 works consistently.

(05-21-2015 07:52 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  20 mil per school per year, that includes the 6 MWC schools that the AAC poaches. BYU, Air Force, Colorado St, Boise, SDSU and one of either UNLV/NM/Fresno All games on NBC OTA, Fox OTA and ABC/ESPN. No Thursday or Friday games. An AAC network that's owned entirely by the 18 schools of the AAC. This is where we place our 3rd tier rights games. A 12 year deal with a 6 year "look in".-- a real one, not fake look in like the current one. I'm as serious as the posters who've now taken down their contract prediction posts in 2012 about the current 2014-2020 TV contract. I may be a little lower than their predictions on total $. I don't want to get too greedy.

I was wondering as I read 'is this guy serious' --- on this board you can't be too careful. I read the bolded --- and see you might think you're actually a little low --

(05-21-2015 07:52 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  20 mil per school per year, that includes the 6 MWC schools that the AAC poaches. BYU, Air Force, Colorado St, Boise, SDSU and one of either UNLV/NM/Fresno All games on NBC OTA, Fox OTA and ABC/ESPN. No Thursday or Friday games. An AAC network that's owned entirely by the 18 schools of the AAC. This is where we place our 3rd tier rights games. A 12 year deal with a 6 year "look in".-- a real one, not fake look in like the current one. I'm as serious as the posters who've now taken down their contract prediction posts in 2012 about the current 2014-2020 TV contract. I may be a little lower than their predictions on total $. I don't want to get too greedy.

Pretty sure those predictions were for a conference that had the Catholic 7, Notre Dame olympics, Rutgers, Louisville, Boise, SDSU and a full national western wing. I believe we also still believed BYU and AF would be part of the deal. I think my number for that group was between 10-15 million per school. If you go by the contracts that were paid out, I wasn't as far off as some might think...

Louisville-ended up being worth 20 million
Rutgers-ended up being worth 24 million
C-7--this basketball group alone got 40 million without UConn, Cinci, Temple, or Memphis
Notre Dame-5 million (that's probably low)
rest-22 million (vastly underpaid)
Boise-4 million (probably a bit low as well--but the built-in advantages of the ESPN "bonus" could allow higher earnings)
SDSU-2 million (got the same crap deal as the rest of the MW)

That's 8.9 million each for all-sports schools and 2.1 million per basketball school. My guess for the national conference I'd like to see built is 5 million a school to start (6 yr contract). Id think with solid ratings and good performance, we could be in the 8-10 million range by contract #2. Frankly, even if were only 4 million a year to start---I woundn't care. The reality is we would be a better more entertaining conference than we are now. More dominant in football and a true power conference in basketball---why would we not want that? If we just keep the typical G5 regional structure---I'm guessing we will continue to get about 10% of what power teams earn.

I wish we could move the American Digital to a Direct TV channel and have our own like the SEC. If anyone can do it it is Aresco.

(05-19-2015 09:03 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Provided unpredictable changes in the marketplace do not occur, such as sports channels losing money because of things like Verizon Fios's bundling, the AAC is set to get close to about $10M/year.

The contract was as low as it was because it was at the weakest possible negotiating standpoint. ESPN and others didn't have any confidence as to which schools would actually be in the league. It was an absolute disaster.

This is a feel-good myth. When our contract was negotiated, all of the movement had taken place, and there was little reason to think anyone else was leaving. Heck, there were only three football schools - USF, UConn, and Cincy - who could have left, and by January 2013 it was plain as day that none of us were going anywhere, we were stuck.

Furthermore, to the extent that movement was still possible (and it always is), the contract had terms to address that. Specifically, the contract states that if two "Group A" schools (UConn, Cincy, Houston, and Temple) were to exit, or a Group A and a Group B school were to exit, then ESPN could TERMINATE the contract. If two Group B schools left, they could renegotiate the contract. So they were protected from further movement.

Rights fees are still rising, so around 2020 I'd bet we can double our money to around $4m per school/per year, maybe $5m. But that's about it.

(05-21-2015 01:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-19-2015 09:03 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Provided unpredictable changes in the marketplace do not occur, such as sports channels losing money because of things like Verizon Fios's bundling, the AAC is set to get close to about $10M/year.

The contract was as low as it was because it was at the weakest possible negotiating standpoint. ESPN and others didn't have any confidence as to which schools would actually be in the league. It was an absolute disaster.

This is a feel-good myth. When our contract was negotiated, all of the movement had taken place, and there was little reason to think anyone else was leaving. Heck, there were only three football schools - USF, UConn, and Cincy - who could have left, and by January 2013 it was plain as day that none of us were going anywhere, we were stuck.

Furthermore, to the extent that movement was still possible (and it always is), the contract had terms to address that. Specifically, the contract states that if two "Group A" schools (UConn, Cincy, Houston, and Temple) were to exit, or a Group A and a Group B school were to exit, then ESPN could TERMINATE the contract. If two Group B schools left, they could renegotiate the contract. So they were protected from further movement.

Rights fees are still rising, so around 2020 I'd bet we can double our money to around $4m per school/per year, maybe $5m. But that's about it.

In hindsight---yes, all the movement had taken place. But that was hardly an accepted fact at the time. It wasn't until the GOR was actually signed by the ACC several months later that this round of realignment was considered to be essentially over. Sure, NBC could terminate the contract. So what was their motivation to pay much of anything for a group of schools desperate for ANY contract that might not even exist by the football season? Zero. The AAC was falling apart and had zero leverage. They needed a deal at that exact moment or they were likely to suffer more defections (Houston/SMU to the MW and Cinci/UConn to BE). Frankly, getting what the got was shocking to many who claimed their unstable nature would prevent them from landing any contract at all. Im blown away how people cant remember how dire the situation was---its just wasn't that long ago. Hell, I can remember Dodd posting an article that said the conference was dead and would not survive.

As far as the Big East is concerned, one source said that as long as SMU and Houston are still in the fold, the conference still could get some kind of rights fees. But don't be surprised if one or both schools join the MWC.

“I think the Big East is done,” said a source close to the Boise deal. “How are they not done? They can't get a TV deal done for any revenue. There are schools publicly looking to leave. Big East schools are running from something, not to something. Their most valuable asset is exit fees.”

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...-east-dead


Yet Quo wants drone on about how the realignment was all over and the AAC got full value for their conference. The guys living in a fantasy where he can completely manufacture his own facts. This conference was all but dead at that time. Truth be told, that contract probably is the only reason the conference survived.

(05-20-2015 05:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  As Ive said for a while, I think we maximize our value by going nationwide. That gives us a unique identity that we do not have at this time. However, I don't think a solid viable economical nationwide conference is possible without divisional deregulation. We cant really do anything until the rules surrounding deregulation come down. My master plan would be to add 6 top MW schools to create a far western all sports division. Additionally, I would want to add one non-football school to each division to upgrade the basketball profile. The two current AAC divisions would remain unchanged except that each would get a non-football member (the east gets VCU, the central gets Wichita). The MW division gets BYU Olympics. The deal would also set up a scheduling agreement with BYU. My preferred MW division would take the Air Force, Boise, and Fresno as those are the top 3 football names in the conference. I'd also grab SDSU (decent football, good basketball), and the last two slots would be 2 of the UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado St. That gives you solid football and basketball in the west. Taken as a whole, the conference would be the only nationwide conference (gives us the unique identity we currently lack), the dominate G5 football force, and a top 3 basketball conference. We would have two state flagships, two academies, a large number of major markets, we would cover most areas of the country, we would cover all 4 time zones, and we would represent the closest thing to a "best of the rest" conference possible. I believe such a conference would represent the maximum value possible to networks using just G5 parts.

Such a conference would be a perfect achor for an NBS entry into the college FBS tv market and it would be an excellent filler property for both Fox and ESPN. I doubt ESPN would want anyone else to have it---especially if ESPN loses some Big-10 inventory when the B1G contract is up for renegotion in a year or two.

Not a bad plan, but wouldn't it be even better to take the top programs from the two conferences and form a new conference. It would take a couple of years to get it done and by then many of the basketball credits from the BigEast schools will have been paid out. And by keeping most of the schools from each conference, I believe access to the NCAA tourney would still be effective. I am not certain how the NCAA tourney access works, nor how any remaining basketball credits would be handled. You would know more about that than I do.

It seems the top teams from each confernce could get a much better TV deal. I am sure some posters will argue who the top programs are, but for example, a 16 team conference with two divisions:

East:

Cincy
UConn
ECU
UCF
USF
Memphis
Houston
SMU

West:

Boise
Fresno
San Diego State
New Mexico
Colorado State
UNLV
Air Force
Navy

I am sure there would be issues that would need to be addressed, but we need to think long term.