(05-10-2015 12:53 PM)BRtransplant Wrote: (05-10-2015 10:46 AM)mtmedlin Wrote: In the eyes of the playoff, all G5 conferences are the same... but in the long term scheme of things they are not. I have and will continue to strongly believe that the end game is to break off 75-80 teams and form an upper level above FBS and right now the AAC is the 6th conference. This is why I want to attempt to lure away a couple MWC teams and further weaken them.
and yes, the AAC was WIDELY known to be undervalued. This has been said by several analyst and repeated by our commisioner, who just so happens to be a long time TV veteran. The simple fact is the value of our individual teams was worth more then the conference... meaning, nobody knew who was staying or going, so they werent going to spend money on it.
Now that it is settled and we are performing pretty well, I can see us getting a bump. I have never said the TV contract will be $10 million. What I have said is that I believe our total revenue will get closer to the $10-12 million range. I think tripling our TV contract to about $6-7 million is feasable. Add in NCAA credits and Playoff money and were now almost at $10 million. Then I think the AAC can make a case for us to get a larger share of the Playoff money because we are the 6th conference... and so far the only one that has a BCS/Access bowl win AND an NCAA championship (in 2 sports).
The ACC will make about $25 million in 2019 (they are on an elevator system that increases each year but isnt maxed out) and I dont think its insane to think the AAC will be around half of that and the Clear cut leader at #6... which will put us in a good position to be included in the break away.
as much as people hate ESPN, I think its best we sign whatever deal they send us... or else amazingly enough realignment will happen again (shocking) and this conference will be plucked apart.
If the P5 thought they needed you guys, they wouldn't have excluded the Big East from the big time in the first place. Instead, they chose to elevate only those Big East programs that they wanted. What has changed exactly, that would now make the P5 see fit to add the entire AAC to it's exclusive club?
Thats a valid point, but I tend to believe that at just 65 teams, the upper league would be a bit thin on content.
They do not see us as equals and when they do split away, I dont see them treating us as such either, so its not like I am expecting for them to really welcome us in to this exclusive club with open arms.
In truth, if you look at the ACC, its not like they are getting the same deals either. They have a MUCH lower marquee bowl lineup then the other P5 conferences, and unless FSU goes undefeated again, I doubt you will see them get the Playoff spot most years.
I actually expect as time goes on that the ACC will be considered the weakest of the P5 and after the Texas 4 go to the Pac12, then I think the newly developed conference of B12 leftovers and ACC/BYU will be about on par with them.... but probably paid a bit less.
You also have to remember that it wont really cost them much... the money isnt in the playoff. Its in the bowls and Tv contracts.
Right now you have roughly $250 million being split 5 ways. It doesnt break down to perfectly even per team since there is size desperity but if you look at it like that it will give you an idea of how little it will change.
Right now that $250 million is split 65 ways or $3.846 million per. If they add 11 teams, like I think they will youre looking at $3.289 million. In a world of $30 and $40 million income, that much less isnt significant at all.
Now when they do split off, they can expand the playoff to 8 teams and its been estimated that will increase the income by another $200-300 million.
Thats where I think its going. If the Texas 4 do leave, I think the new Big12 conference get about the same they have been getting. $15-20 million in TV money per team, which will suck compared to what the others are getting. More than likely the Big 12 bowls will reduce their payouts. If were lucky were in the middle $20 million in revenue, which will be half or less than what the Big 10, SEC and Pac16 would be making.... but not too terribly far away from where the ACC is.
Given, this is all guessing, but I and a few others think it makes sense.