Am I missing anything here?

Quote:This year the ACC earned 21 NCAA units, which will pay out approximately $5.5 million per year for the next six years. If they do that every year, then by year six the payout would be $33 million! To get that same amount of money from the football post-season, the ACC would need to place 3 teams into the playoffs PLUS 3 to 4 more teams into Access Bowls - every year!

http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2015/0...mpare.html

http://accbasketballrx.blogspot.com/2015...-year.html

Now, I'll admit that the ACC did MUCH better in the NCAA tournament this year than in the recent past, and to make up the football money would require sustained excellence in basketball... but in theory, the ACC can earn far more in basketball than, say, the SEC can earn in football (based solely on post-season payouts and not taking into account the effect of past performance on future TV contracts).

The ACC can't do anything about the lost decade (2003-2012), but it's not in a hopeless position either - PROVIDED that ACC teams keep performing at a high level in both money sports!

[Is my math wrong? Am I missing something?]

(04-07-2015 12:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Am I missing anything here?

Quote:This year the ACC earned 21 NCAA units, which will pay out approximately $5.5 million per year for the next six years. If they do that every year, then by year six the payout would be $33 million! To get that same amount of money from the football post-season, the ACC would need to place 3 teams into the playoffs PLUS 3 to 4 more teams into Access Bowls - every year!

http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2015/0...mpare.html

http://accbasketballrx.blogspot.com/2015...-year.html

Now, I'll admit that the ACC did MUCH better in the NCAA tournament this year than in the recent past, and to make up the football money would require sustained excellence in basketball... but in theory, the ACC can earn far more in basketball than, say, the SEC can earn in football (based solely on post-season payouts and not taking into account the effect of past performance on future TV contracts).

The ACC can't do anything about the lost decade (2003-2012), but it's not in a hopeless position either - PROVIDED that ACC teams keep performing at a high level in both money sports!

[Is my math wrong? Am I missing something?]

"the ACC can earn far more in basketball than, say, the SEC can earn in football "


What?

The ACC is getting $5.6 Million per year due to historic year.

An average year for college playoff money is $50 Milllion.


How does the ACC earn more in basketball than SEC in football?

This is simple.....basketball revenue is small compared to football revenue on average.

(04-07-2015 02:58 PM)nole Wrote:  

(04-07-2015 12:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Am I missing anything here?

Quote:This year the ACC earned 21 NCAA units, which will pay out approximately $5.5 million per year for the next six years. If they do that every year, then by year six the payout would be $33 million! To get that same amount of money from the football post-season, the ACC would need to place 3 teams into the playoffs PLUS 3 to 4 more teams into Access Bowls - every year!

http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2015/0...mpare.html

http://accbasketballrx.blogspot.com/2015...-year.html

Now, I'll admit that the ACC did MUCH better in the NCAA tournament this year than in the recent past, and to make up the football money would require sustained excellence in basketball... but in theory, the ACC can earn far more in basketball than, say, the SEC can earn in football (based solely on post-season payouts and not taking into account the effect of past performance on future TV contracts).

The ACC can't do anything about the lost decade (2003-2012), but it's not in a hopeless position either - PROVIDED that ACC teams keep performing at a high level in both money sports!

[Is my math wrong? Am I missing something?]

"the ACC can earn far more in basketball than, say, the SEC can earn in football "


What?

The ACC is getting $5.6 Million per year due to historic year.

An average year for college playoff money is $50 Milllion.


How does the ACC earn more in basketball than SEC in football?

This is simple.....basketball revenue is small compared to football revenue on average.

The $50 million number includes tons of guaranteed money. The ACC only got $6 million in "earnable" money this year (the SEC got more thanks to the stupid Orange Bowl deal, but maybe the Big Ten is a better comparison: Ohio State earned an extra $6 million for the playoffs, and Michigan State got $4 million more for being in the Cotton - total of $10 million).

I'm not interested in fixed numbers which won't change no matter what the ACC does - I'm interested in what the league CAN do about it. In that regard, basketball's variable money is greater than football's.

(04-07-2015 02:58 PM)nole Wrote:  

(04-07-2015 12:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Am I missing anything here?

Quote:This year the ACC earned 21 NCAA units, which will pay out approximately $5.5 million per year for the next six years. If they do that every year, then by year six the payout would be $33 million! To get that same amount of money from the football post-season, the ACC would need to place 3 teams into the playoffs PLUS 3 to 4 more teams into Access Bowls - every year!

http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2015/0...mpare.html

http://accbasketballrx.blogspot.com/2015...-year.html

Now, I'll admit that the ACC did MUCH better in the NCAA tournament this year than in the recent past, and to make up the football money would require sustained excellence in basketball... but in theory, the ACC can earn far more in basketball than, say, the SEC can earn in football (based solely on post-season payouts and not taking into account the effect of past performance on future TV contracts).

The ACC can't do anything about the lost decade (2003-2012), but it's not in a hopeless position either - PROVIDED that ACC teams keep performing at a high level in both money sports!

[Is my math wrong? Am I missing something?]

"the ACC can earn far more in basketball than, say, the SEC can earn in football "


What?

The ACC is getting $5.6 Million per year due to historic year.

An average year for college playoff money is $50 Milllion.


How does the ACC earn more in basketball than SEC in football?

This is simple.....basketball revenue is small compared to football revenue on average.

The 50 million is guarenteed and the 5.6 million is for 6 years. He's talking about marginal revenues.

"guaranteed money" is better than the "lets pretend we have a historic year every year in the NCAA Tourney.


even if you do.....the revenue in football DWARFS basketball....it isn't even close.


Why is this board always trying to rewrite that factual point? Bball $$$ is small compared to football....every other conference has figured it out. Stop it.

(04-07-2015 03:03 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(04-07-2015 02:58 PM)nole Wrote:  The ACC is getting $5.6 Million per year due to historic year.
An average year for college playoff money is $50 Milllion.
How does the ACC earn more in basketball than SEC in football?
This is simple.....basketball revenue is small compared to football revenue on average.

The 50 million is guarenteed and the 5.6 million is for 6 years. He's talking about marginal revenues.

BINGO! And that's not marginal as is "small", it's marginal as in "on the side" or "in addition to".

Like the Big East did....we are going to pretend the ACC is always "guaranteed" to be at the big boy table?


Better compete in football and invest in it at a proportional rate or stay a basketball league only and die.

(04-07-2015 03:09 PM)nole Wrote:  Like the Big East did....we are going to pretend the ACC is always "guaranteed" to be at the big boy table?


Better compete in football and invest in it at a proportional rate or stay a basketball league only and die.

Nobody is saying you can ignore football - this year the ACC was second to the SEC in football revenue and has clearly improved in terms of on-field performance as well.

Why do you FSU guys keep wanting to downplay the value of basketball so much? It's not either/or - it's both/and!

basketball IS valuable.

bball brings in 20% of the revenue.....football brings in 80%.

(04-07-2015 03:06 PM)nole Wrote:  "guaranteed money" is better than the "lets pretend we have a historic year every year in the NCAA Tourney.


even if you do.....the revenue in football DWARFS basketball....it isn't even close.


Why is this board always trying to rewrite that factual point? Bball $$$ is small compared to football....every other conference has figured it out. Stop it.

Because if they were to speak of how things really are they would have to admit that the ACC isn't the best in the world and it isn't all rainbows, unicorns and double sprinkles on top of the cupcake.

(04-07-2015 03:43 PM)nole Wrote:  basketball IS valuable.

bball brings in 20% of the revenue.....football brings in 80%.

That ratio only applies to the TV contract, IIRC.

All five conferences share the main football playoff money equally and it's about $55 million not $50.

The rest of the pot the ACC fights for is $24 million in two playoff spots and $24 million for 6 access spots.

This is where the ACC is disadvantaged because of a lack of marquee football teams that would be placed in the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta Bowls.

You can expect the SEC to have a minimum of a playoff spot and two access spots every year or $14 million of the $48
You can expect the B10 to have a playoff spot almost every year and at least one access spot or $10 million of the $48
You can expect the P12 to have a playoff spot half the time and an access sport or an average of 7 million of the $48
The B12 can expect a playoff spot half the time and an access spot every year for an average of $7 million
The ACC can expect a playoff spot a third of the time and an access spot a third of the time for an average of about $3.5 million of the $48

Most years the ACC will earn substantially less than the SEC or B10 in the $48 million annual pool.

(04-07-2015 06:56 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  All five conferences share the main football playoff money equally and it's about $55 million not $50.

The rest of the pot the ACC fights for is $24 million in two playoff spots and $24 million for 6 access spots.

This is where the ACC is disadvantaged because of a lack of marquee football teams that would be placed in the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta Bowls.

You can expect the SEC to have a minimum of a playoff spot and two access spots every year or $14 million of the $48
You can expect the B10 to have a playoff spot almost every year and at least one access spot or $10 million of the $48
You can expect the P12 to have a playoff spot half the time and an access sport or an average of 7 million of the $48
The B12 can expect a playoff spot half the time and an access spot every year for an average of $7 million
The ACC can expect a playoff spot a third of the time and an access spot a third of the time for an average of about $3.5 million of the $48

Most years the ACC will earn substantially less than the SEC or B10 in the $48 million annual pool.

I have to disagree with your ACC number (I happen to think it can and will keep up with the Pac-12 and Big XII), your point is well made - the SEC will likely make several million more in football money than the ACC every year - over and above the locked-in money which won't change for awhile.

My whole point was this: if the SEC makes $10M/year more in football post-season money while the ACC makes $15M/year more in basketball post-season money, you just made up $5M/year of the overall gap. Since so much of the football money is fixed, it's actually easier to earn extra basketball money (in the short term).

Where football comes in is time to renegotiate the Orange Bowl contract and the TV contract - at that time is critical that ACC football be near the top! But crying about what has already happened is pointless.

(04-07-2015 07:06 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-07-2015 06:56 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  All five conferences share the main football playoff money equally and it's about $55 million not $50.

The rest of the pot the ACC fights for is $24 million in two playoff spots and $24 million for 6 access spots.

This is where the ACC is disadvantaged because of a lack of marquee football teams that would be placed in the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta Bowls.

You can expect the SEC to have a minimum of a playoff spot and two access spots every year or $14 million of the $48
You can expect the B10 to have a playoff spot almost every year and at least one access spot or $10 million of the $48
You can expect the P12 to have a playoff spot half the time and an access sport or an average of 7 million of the $48
The B12 can expect a playoff spot half the time and an access spot every year for an average of $7 million
The ACC can expect a playoff spot a third of the time and an access spot a third of the time for an average of about $3.5 million of the $48

Most years the ACC will earn substantially less than the SEC or B10 in the $48 million annual pool.

I have to disagree with your ACC number (I happen to think it can and will keep up with the Pac-12 and Big XII), your point is well made - the SEC will likely make several million more in football money than the ACC every year - over and above the locked-in money which won't change for awhile.

My whole point was this: if the SEC makes $10M/year more in football post-season money while the ACC makes $15M/year more in basketball post-season money, you just made up $5M/year of the overall gap. Since so much of the football money is fixed, it's actually easier to earn extra basketball money (in the short term).

Where football comes in is time to renegotiate the Orange Bowl contract and the TV contract - at that time is critical that ACC football be near the top! But crying about what has already happened is pointless.

I am being conservative regarding football. In basketball if you go here http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/...20Plan.pdf you can see that over the last half decade, the ACC was getting $3 million more per year from basketball than the SEC. That disparity will likely grow to $7-10 million a year. With the SEC staying around $15 and the ACC's take going to an average of $23 or so million. The B10 will stay around $21 million.

I see the ACC making up about $6-10 million a year on the SEC in basketball, but the difference with the B10 will be negligible.

I see us running about $2 million a year behind the SEC in football playoff money and NCAA playoff money. That's negligible with the real difference being the extra value in their network versus the value in our ESPN contract and any network, plus what individual schools rake in on much large football stadiums.

But your original thesis, that the ACC makes up ground on the SEC and P12 in basketball is accurate.

The real revenue wild card depends on VT, Miami and one of UNC/NC State/UVa/Louisville having 10 win seasons, without FSU or Clemson going back in the tank.

I assume your math is right. But your reasoning is awful.

The ACC will not earn 21 units each year. It simply is NOT going to happen.

If the ACC earned 17 every year, that'd be $27M over six? Still a decent sum, but $6M less than your outlandish figure.

So if the SEC is only earning 9 units (~half the ACC's) every year, that would be about $14M. And we know the Big Ten is a good basketball conference, so let's say they split the ACC and SEC at $20M.

The ACC would make $324M over 12 years, or $1.8M/school/year.
The SEC would make $168M over 12 years, or $1.0M/school/year.
The Big Ten would make $240M over 12 years, or $1.2M/school/year.

But the SEC and Big Ten will each make $40M from their contract bowl 8 times over 12 years. They will each make an additional $27.5M 3 times over 12 years. The ACC will only make $41.25M no more than 2 times over 12 years, while making $27.5M six times.

The ACC would make $247.5M over 12 years, or $1.5M/school/year.
The SEC would make $402.5M over 12 years, or $2.4M/school/year.
The Big Ten would make $402.5M over 12 years, or $2.4M/school/year.

That all comes out to:
ACC - $3.3M/school/year
SEC - $3.4M/school/year
Big Ten - $3.6/school/year

And I think we all can agree that the ACC would do well to earn 75% of the playoff/access berths the SEC/Big Ten earn, so the conference won't be gaining any ground there (ie, it will be losing ground).

But if the ACC did earn 21 NCAAT units EVERY year, it'd still only come out to $2.2M/school/year, or roughly $400K/school/year more than I projected above.

I'm not certain, but I feel like back in the NCAAT thread, somebody pointed out the fact that despite the ACC doing well, that it would do nothing to make up the gap in revenue the SEC and Big Ten have on the ACC through their tv/network contracts. And that remains true.

lots of interesting attempts to control the perspective of the numbers.


Some clarification of the reality......The last FULL set of numbers I have found are 2013-2012, where the ACC brought in $232 million in revenue. Of that, the breakdown and percent of revenue went like this (approximations and rounding):

Bowl games: 20%
FB TV rights: 46%

NCAA Tourney: 8%
BBall TV rights: 11%
ACC BBall Tourney: 2%


This is before huge disparity of college football playoff revenue, bowl tie ins (where ACC is about $13 million per year behind...if not more).



Real simple......BBall revenue is WAY behind football revenue.....no amount of hoping for historical runs in the tourney year after year will change that.

"Since so much of the football money is fixed, it's actually easier to earn extra basketball money (in the short term)."


I understand your logic....problem with it is this.....by logical extrapolation, you could suggest it would be wiser for the ACC to invest in basketball to make up the revenue difference.


When 80% (ish) of the revenue is in football....this is flawed logic. It destroyed the Big East and the ACC loves to emulate the Big East.


Basketball is NOT how the ACC will save itself.

The truth is that football as a whole makes more per P5 team than basketball, but any realistic solution will *not* be one or the other. It will be a combination of the two plus other sports. Sure, most schools would be well served to emphasize football more than basketball, but the degree and exact balance is different for every school. Wake Forest and Texas A&M are fundamentally different schools in fundamentally different situations.

The ACC needs to be able to count on about 6 to 8 football teams competing for a playoff bid, and about 6 to 8 basketball teams getting an NCAA bid. Obviously that may mean some teams doing both, but really every team should do at least ONE.