(03-29-2015 09:59 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(03-28-2015 01:14 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  My goodness. Lots of speculation going on here.

My view:

1) The A-10 is at best ambivalent towards UAB. Barring a massive raid on the A-10 by the Big East, UAB isn't getting an A-10 bid. And still might not get one even if the Big East takes Dayton and St Louis. Just because the prospect of a UAB bid doesn't set off opposition doesn't mean that it is likely. Besides, UAB's institutional problems will cause any conference to think rather hard prior to offering them a bid.

2) Those arguing for UMass in the AAC are only looking at half the story. Yes, UMass would accept an all sports AAC bid (unlike an all sports Belt or MAC bid). But what does the AAC get with UMass. They get a football product that is unstable and currently not very good. They get a basketball team with 1 NCAA round of 64 appearance since 1998. Other than a partner for Uconn, they get little. Unlikely at this time.

3) UAB appears to be negotiating with the MVC. For the UAB administration, it helps them in that the MVC provides no path back to FBS and that it is a credible basketball conference. For those looking for UAB to return to FBS, the Sun Belt is the best choice as it provides them with a path back to FBS. That being said, those making the decisions know this and probably don't want UAB to join the Sun Belt even if they were the number 1 basketball conference in the country. If UAB gets tossed from CUSA next year (not happening this year) and they can't get into the MVC, they're looking at a bad situation. The Belt MIGHT take them (if the revenue sharing deal can be fixed) but probably wont because the revenue sharing deal probably wont be fixed. And even if the revenue sharing deal can be fixed, UAB's administration would probably turn down the Belt flat, because that would start more pressure to bring back FBS. So they'd be looking at the A Sun, OVC, SoCon, or maybe the Horizon.

If the AAC loses Cincy and Uconn, it would set off a chain of moves by other conferences. The AAC would take two from (NIU, Ohio, Marshall, Army, ODU - don't laugh, or USM). If the MAC got raided for one team, the MAC would probably take James Madison. If CUSA gets raided, they'd be coming after the Belt (unless we can convince them that James Madison is really better than all of us lowly Sun Belt schools). But I'm not sure this is happening any time soon. While the Big XII-II needs members, they need members that are going to raise the football profile of the conference. Cincy and Uconn aren't going to do that.

An unstable looking, but stable, stare down is where I see this heading for a couple of years.

Can't see UAB fitting into the A-10 footprint. It was a stretch adding Davidson. Umass is an outstanding academic institution and that's about where it ends. What else to they offer the AAC? They've been so-so in basketball as of late (1 NCAA Tournament and 5 NIT apps since 1998), no accomplishments in football since winning the 1-aa title in 1998, do not provide access to a recruiting hot bed, and athough they may try can't claim Boston as a TV market. Considering how explicit the UA Board was in their regard to football at UAB, it makes sense the PTB would want the school in a conference where that sentiment wouldn't be given a achance to gain another foothold. Still a number of MVC schools play FCS and one has to wonder if even that might be too much of a temptation. If the AAC were to lose a couple of schools I think N Ill has to on top of their list. The Huskies gained a lot of national attention getting to the Orange Bowl and even though basketball hasn't been a powerhouse neither has ECU. It would at least crack the door open to one of the biggest TV markets in the country. I think theri administration see's an opportunity and released a facility Master Plan last year will put them on equal footing with the AAC.

It's not the facilities that are holding back NIU in realignment. It's thier attendance. The Huskies were 11-3 last year and couldn't get more that 16K fans at any home game. One game didn't even attract 9K. The entire MAC has the same problem. Only 2 MAC teams broke 20K in average attendance last year---and those two just barely broke the 20K barrier (neither of those two teams even reached 21k). Most MAC teams averaged between 12-16K in per game attendance. Two MAC teams shockingly average under 10K. For comparison, 20K is about the average for a Sunbelt team (a few above, a few below). This is why losing teams to realignment has never really been much of a problem for the MAC.

Big XII won't add soon. First they will wait to see if a 10 team conference can play a championship. Second their basketball was the top rated conference this year. They just slipped in the tourney.

"Slipped" is putting it mildly . . . And I expect their appeal to play a CG with 10 to be denied . . . . JMO. . . .

Big XII is in an interesting spot. They make a lot of money individually at 10, but WV has been complaining about not being overly close to another conference foe and the new playoff did exclude them for the lack of a championship game. Although many do not see them adding, such may happen soon. As usual, they will first ask BYU who will say no again. That will leave, in order:

Cincinnati
Central Florida
Memphis
Colorado State
Houston

The Big 12 screwed up when they didn't invite Louisville and Cincinnati when they added West Virginia. I would add UConn and Cincinnati if I was them.

(03-28-2015 12:56 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Also, snowball's chance of MWC taking NMSU. They may make sense...but that would mean UNM would have to play along... It'd be far easier for them to dip into another Texas based CUSA team.

Supposedly, UNM administration ( which is the vote that counts ) was actively lobbying on behalf of NMSU the last time.

But that may have been the only vote.

It will be interesting times because some movement appears inevitable.

(03-29-2015 01:37 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  The Big 12 screwed up when they didn't invite Louisville and Cincinnati when they added West Virginia. I would add UConn and Cincinnati if I was them.

I agree! Either Cincinnati and Connecticut or Cincinnati and Memphis.

Louisville woould have helped...and the ACC would have gone with Connecticut.