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(03-23-2015 11:23 AM)MajorHoople Wrote:  Possible '15 Cinderellas...NIU is on list with Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, and Utah State.

Didn't see the original article, so I'm not sure of the context, but when I hear Cinderella, I think of a team that could crash the playoff (or - at a minimum - Access Bowl berth). If BYU ran the table, they'd certainly have earned it. With trips to Nebraska, UCLA, Michigan, Utah State, and to Kansas City to play Mizzou (plus a home game with Boise), though, that's not happening. Assessing any of the other teams requires first taking the assumed position that they run the table in their conferences. Boise's non-conf: Washington, at BYU, at Virginia. Won't be easy, but it's possible they win all those. (By this point, Boise shouldn't be considered a Cinderella anyway.) Utah State's non-conf: at Utah, at Washington, BYU, Southern Utah. Even if they sweep that slate, they'd still have to get past Boise in the Mountain West. I don't see all of that happening. Cincinnati's non-conf: at Miami (OH), Miami (FL) at home, Alabama A+M, at BYU. Getting the Hurricanes at home helps, but I'd be very surprised if they run the table, both in conference and out of conference.

Part of the problem with his list is that all of those teams play each other. At best, only one of those teams will emerge.

As for NIU, I think they have a chance to win at BC, but the odds of them winning in Columbus are the same as the chances that the Big XII comes calling for them: zero.

Kolonel,

Basically you inadvertently pointed out what it'd take for a mid-major TO crash the Playoffs: Having a schedule where "That's not happening", where they're a winning team usually. That's it in a nutshell. So when on the topic, we do have to include those, though. Because the concept is, Can it even be done? My answer: Yes. Either "That's not happening" or something very close being "That most likely Is Not happening" + nobody undefeated and many teams with 2-loss without others sticking out.

So let's assume any mid-major who is 8W capable ran the table:

1. BYU (Their SoS beats most BCS teams')

2. ECU (@Florida, @Navy, VaTech, @BYU, @UCF, Cinci)
3. WMU (MSU, @GA-South, @OhioSt, BGSU, @NIU, @Toledo, *BGSU)
4. Fresno (@Ole Miss, Utah, @San Diego St, Utah State, Nevada, @BYU, ColoSt)
5. BGSU (@Tenn, @Maryland, Memphis, @Purdue, @WMU, Toledo, *NIU)
6. Boise St (Wash, @BYU, @Virginia, @ColoSt, @UtahSt, Air Force)
7. UCF (@Stanford, @S.Carolina, Houston, @Cinci, ECU)
8. Air Force (@MSU, @Navy, @ColoSt, Fresno, Utah State, @Boise)
9. Utah St (@Utah, @Wash, ColoSt, @Fresno, Boise, @San DiegoSt, @AirF, Nevada, BYU)
10. NIU (@OhioSt, @Boston College, @Toledo, WMU, *BGSU)
11. Houston (@Louisville, @UCF, Vandy, Cinci, Memphis, Navy)
12. Cinci (@Memphis, @BYU, UCF, @Houston, @ECU)

(03-25-2015 07:32 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  

(03-25-2015 06:51 AM)brovol Wrote:  I think mid majors would include schools from any of the non-bcs conferences. There are a lot of midmajors that routinely beat good bcs schools, and even compete at the highest level of those schools, despite being in a "lower" conference. BY used to regularly, then Boise has stepped up and can no longer sneek up on anyone. Utah and TCU were both "midmajors". until bcs conferences got sick of being embarased so they asked those schools to join them.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, it isn't always better to be in the " power leagues". Being a consistent winner in a non-power-league maintains momentum and provides a more comfortable foundation for a program.it also allows you to operate withing a budget which is more manageable considering the financial resources of the school.

You are forgetting one thing regarding budgets. Being in a power conference gets you much more $$$. NCAA hoops revenue and TV revenue split among members, football bowl payout $$$, conference TV network revenue. The budgeting gets a bit easier with all that money showering down that a mid-major does not get a crack at even sniffing.

Schools like NW, Illinois and Purdue swim in the $$ not because of what they have done - but because of where they are, affiliation-wise. That is how they can pay out $650K to host us without batting an eye.

Its all relative milehigh. Yes the bcs schools have more revenue, but to be very competitive in those leagues there must be a financial commitment well above what is gained through those revenue sharing processes. It requires a budget far beyond what most midmajors are in a position to provide.

Boise is the self made millionaire amongst college programs. We can talk about advantages they have, but the reality is that Boise just committed itself to building something, and relied on no one else, nor did they gain entry into a bcs conference and revenue sharing, to do so. I admire that, and would love that feeling of accomplishment if I were a Boise alum. But my point is, Boise recognized that it was in a better spot remaining in its conference, and being the consistent power. It allowed them to build at their own pace, and establish a tremendous foundation.

(03-26-2015 05:44 AM)brovol Wrote:  Boise recognized that it was in a better spot remaining in its conference, and being the consistent power. It allowed them to build at their own pace, and establish a tremendous foundation.

I think Boise caught a huge break when the Big East dissolved just as they were about to become a member. I believe making that move would've been a big mistake on their part.

(03-26-2015 01:10 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Basically you inadvertently pointed out what it'd take for a mid-major TO crash the Playoffs: Having a schedule where "That's not happening", where they're a winning team usually. That's it in a nutshell. So when on the topic, we do have to include those, though. Because the concept is, Can it even be done? My answer: Yes. Either "That's not happening" or something very close being "That most likely Is Not happening" + nobody undefeated and many teams with 2-loss without others sticking out.

So let's assume any mid-major who is 8W capable ran the table:
1. BYU (Their SoS beats most BCS teams')

I don't disagree their SOS would beat most BCS teams, and Boise proved last year that it's possible to lose two games during the season and still get to (and win) an Access Bowl. But do you think BYU's going 10-2 or better against that schedule? And do you think that out of all the G5 schools/non-ND independents, BYU has the best shot of any with that schedule?

Quote:I don't disagree their SOS would beat most BCS teams, and Boise proved last year that it's possible to lose two games during the season and still get to (and win) an Access Bowl. But do you think BYU's going 10-2 or better against that schedule? And do you think that out of all the G5 schools/non-ND independents, BYU has the best shot of any with that schedule?

I'm talking about making the Playoffs, not making a BCS Bowl. Boise would need a prev-year BCS Bowl win to have a schedule like last year's Undefeated to be considered for a playoff spot. So if it's about making the playoffs, you go "all in". Is that a smart move? Under most circumstances, I don't think so -- no.

BYU, unless it's "their year", won't go 10-2 with that schedule. If you want to make the BCS Bowl and you're BYU or Boise, competing with a very possible AAC winner for it (not including once every few years dark-horse elsewhere) -- you schedule 2 Tough Games, aiming to win 1, lose another, while winning out your conference.

Going 1-loss to Top 10 team, while beating a Top 20 BCS team, and winning your strong mid-major conference undefeated @ 11-2 [Assuming Conf Champ Game] -- will be enough for you 4 out of 5 years, and is more realistic.

BYU, IMO, has way too tough a schedule. It's definitely an "all in" scenario -- not aiming for a BCS Bowl, but a Playoff. Or, aiming to go 7-5 or better to prove themselves BCS-conference worthy.