Quote:The biggest downside I see is that now in 2017 - like in 2015 - we have two games on the schedule we are very unlikely to win (at MSU in 2017 being the other).
I would take a nonconference schedule like 2016 (at NW, at Illinois, Georgia Southern, FCS TBD) over 2015 and 2017 any day. Assuming the program continues to improve, there's not an unwinnable game in that bunch. We play three FBS schools that we should be very competitive with.
IMO, there's three different different strategies to make a non-easy OOC schedule:
a) Play 3 G5s + 1 "easy" P5. No FCS teams. Of the 3 G5s, 2 are consistently decent but not powerful, 1 is easy.
EXAMPLE: Temple, @Midd-Tenn, @Army, @Purdue
PROS: With a decent team, you can bank on going 2-2, and possibly 3-1. However, in a good year, a decent shot at 4-0 to be seen as an "overrated" G5 powerhouse.
CONS: With bad luck in a road-season you can go 1-3.
b) Play 4 P5s: 2 "easy", 2 reasonably difficult; no given-to-be-ranked P5. But, no gimmies. I think UMass of last year.
EXAMPLE: BC, Colorado, @Vandy, @Penn-State
PROS: With a decent team, you'll go 1-3 against P5s. Possibly 2-2 when you get even home-away games (but less money), on a good year. Helps Build a program.
CONS: Bank on going 1-3, and on not so good years, 0-4. You risk it backfiring. You need to be at least a Toledo to deal with this to make that jump into "G5 Elite". Too early for us.
c) Play 2 Super-Power P5s; 1 Easy G5; 1 FCS
EXAMPLE: @MSU, @Ohio-State, @Army, Alcorn State
PROS: You have a given 2-2 on any decent year. It would take a bad year to go 1-3, but you can always say "We played 2 super powers!" and still have conf season to build up and end it right.
CONS: You're always going to lose 2 games until you're at Boise Level; and even then, at best, going 3-1. At NIU level consistently, you may be able to take out a super-power down year when they're not one and struggling for even a ranking.
This upcoming year, we're basically ©, but instead of an easy G5 we have a Power-G5... not a good strategy at This Point. Would be fine for 2017.